Local lockdown in Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire - Discussion

[BJames]

It seems there is another U-Turn incoming.

Just hours after being "released" from the stricter measures apparently Bolton and Trafford might be returned to where they were.

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

U-turn confirmed. See 12:27: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...virus-live-local-lockdowns-boris-johnson-pmqs

After Starmer accused Johnson of a multitude of u-turns at PMQs, but unfortunately this news broke just a tad too late for him to mention that too.

 

[DB]

Has anyone in one of these areas written to their MP (ideally a Tory one) to ask what the measures are supposed to achieve in the context of any overall plan? Are we now in a situation where they are pursuing the unrealistic strategy of elimination? If so this needs to be made clear.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

It seems there is another U-Turn incoming.

Just hours after being "released" from the stricter measures apparently Bolton and Trafford might be returned to where they were.

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

Sing-a-long-a Hancock, now appearing at the Bolton Albert Halls.

In, out.
In, out.
Shake it all about.
Do the Coronakoki,
Thats what it's all about.

Just how people (individuals and businesses) are supposed to keep up with all this, and make some attempt at organising their lives, I don't know. Other than plan to do nothing and then be grateful for the window of opportunity when it arises. Just like going on an English holiday - wait for the rain to stop, then get out and make the most of it.

 

[yorksrob]

Singalonga Hancock, now appearing at the Bolton Albert Halls.

In, out.
In, out.
Shake it all about.
Do the Coronakoki,
And u-turn around
Thats what it's all about.

Just how people (individuals and businesses) are supposed to keep up with all this, and make some attempt at organising their lives, I don't know. Other than plan to do nothing and then be grateful for the window of opportunity when it arises. Just like going on an English holiday - wait for the rain to stop, then get out and make the most of it.

Missling line inserted

 

[Trackman]

It seems there is another U-Turn incoming.

Just hours after being "released" from the stricter measures apparently Bolton and Trafford might be returned to where they were.

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

Burham was having kittens this morning as new figures show Bolton is top of GM league and yet other boroughs are still locked down. He told everyone to ignore the governments advice and remain in lockdown.

 

[Mag_seven]

Burham was having kittens this morning as new figures show Bolton is top of GM league and yet other boroughs are still locked down. He told everyone to ignore the governments advice and remain in lockdown.

Surely this demonstrates that local decision makers not central government should decide local lockdowns? There also appears to be a disconnect between local councils, mayors (where they exist) and local MPs.

 

[Smidster]

Just how people (individuals and businesses) are supposed to keep up with all this, and make some attempt at organising their lives, I don't know. Other than plan to do nothing and then be grateful for the window of opportunity when it arises. Just like going on an English holiday - wait for the rain to stop, then get out and make the most of it.

This is the key point.

For any of this to work people need to know exactly what is expected of them and how they should (and should not) behave - That was the advantage of the "Stay at Home" message...it is simple and absolutely clear.

There was always going to be nuance in the next stage which makes things more difficult but right from that speech on a Sunday night in May the whole thing has been a mess - remember that famous "Covid-Alert" system?

 

[MDB1images]

Utter shambles and something that will ensure more and more people will ignore what these (so called)politicians say.
If we had a proper media in the UK politicians and councillors feet (of all persuasions) would be being held to the fire around this and the travel restriction shambles but they are getting a free ride.

 

[ChrisC]

Surely this demonstrates that local decision makers not central government should decide local lockdowns? There also appears to be a disconnect between local councils, mayors (where they exist) and local MPs.

Just as we have seen local lockdowns in mainly urban areas, where cases of infection have significantly risen, should we also be looking at local relaxing of measures in areas with very few or even no new cases?
Could social distancing and mask wearing rules be relaxed in these areas. I know it may be confusing to have different areas following different rules but we already have that confusion with the local lockdown areas.
Large parts of the country, especially rural areas, have had no new cases for weeks. Where I live in rural part of Nottinghamshire we have had very few cases and over the border in Lincolnshire the figures are even lower. Large parts of North Yorkshire have had no new cases for weeks and the the cases in the South West remain very low despite the influx of tourists. These parts of the country with few new cases ought to be able to almost get back to normal for the sake of their local economy.

 

[Trackman]

Surely this demonstrates that local decision makers not central government should decide local lockdowns? There also appears to be a disconnect between local councils, mayors (where they exist) and local MPs.

Bolton council said they heard nothing back from the government.
Same with Burnham appealing to the health secretary.
Burnham is demanding an exit strategy and door to door tracing amongst other things.
I'm just reading about his ongoing press conference and he's talking a lot of sense.

 

[Crossover]

Just how people (individuals and businesses) are supposed to keep up with all this, and make some attempt at organising their lives, I don't know.

100% this! I can't remember if I have commented on here to such effect, but certainly have discussed with friends, colleagues etc. that I, for one, have completely lost track of the whole thing and can't remember what applies, where, when. A discussion I have recently had with someone suggests they have given up too and are just doing what they feel is appropriate whilst carrying on with their lives to some extent. Can't say I blame them!

 

[DB]

100% this! I can't remember if I have commented on here to such effect, but certainly have discussed with friends, colleagues etc. that I, for one, have completely lost track of the whole thing and can't remember what applies, where, when. A discussion I have recently had with someone suggests they have given up too and are just doing what they feel is appropriate whilst carrying on with their lives to some extent. Can't say I blame them!

It must be particularly bad for people trying to run hospitality businesses.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Sep 2020 ==

Bolton council said they heard nothing back from the government.
Same with Burnham appealing to the health secretary.
Burnham is demanding an exit strategy and door to door tracing amongst other things.
I'm just reading about his ongoing press conference and he's talking a lot of sense.

The trouble is now that it's become increasingly political, and the Tories, Labour and the SNP are playing to the audience. It's really not helping.

 

[Richard Scott]

It must be particularly bad for people trying to run hospitality businesses.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Sep 2020 ==



The trouble is now that it's become increasingly political, and the Tories, Labour and the SNP are playing to the audience. It's really not helping.

Problem is they're playing to the wrong audience, which is costing the country dearly.

 

[DB]

Problem is they're playing to the wrong audience, which is costing the country dearly.

Indeed - this is what happens when they pay too much attention to social media!

 

[Baxenden Bank]

It must be particularly bad for people trying to run hospitality businesses.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Sep 2020 ==

That's the sort of businesses I was thinking of. If people cannot meet up at home, they may not feel like, or assume they are not allowed to, meet up outside of the home either.

As a bar / restaurant, do you buy in stocks of perishables and see them go to waste (more costs on already struggling businesses) or do you not buy stock and then have to turn customers away (lost income to already struggling businesses).

 

[Class 33]

It must be particularly bad for people trying to run hospitality businesses.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Sep 2020 ==

Indeed it is very frustrating for people trying to run hospitality businesses. As demonstrated by a beauty therapist on tonight's ITV News at 6:30. It's on the ITV Player until tomorrow if you didn't see it. It's on the first item, within the first 5 minutes.

Reporter: "For a fleeting few hours there was optimism. This beauty therapist had spent the weekend booking in clients. A ban on performing facial treatments had finally been lifted in Bolton. Within just a few hours she was left cancelling appointments all over again."

Beauty therapist: "I'm like a puppet on a string. This is... it's like toy like behaviour. They are playing with people's lives. Matt Hanock was asked yesterday about Bolton and the borough, and was it being kept under restrictions. And he didn't address it. We've been allowed to come back today. And the stupidity of it all is just beyond me.".

------------------------------------------------------

I'm not in the hospitality business. Indeed I'm not in any business atall at the moment due to this bloody social distancing nonsense still dragging on, making it near impossible to find work since March! The jobs market is down about 70% since March! But I can understand just how frustrated and annoyed that beauty therapist must be, with all this chopping and changing of lockdown restrictions, then lockdown restrictions being eased, and then a few hours later lockdown restrictions being reimposed again! It's an absolute shambles. The government are indeed playing with people's lives with what they are doing.

 

[Pete_uk]

I would just say bugger to it and open anyway.

 

[Scrotnig]

I would just say bugger to it and open anyway.

Then you'll have the new armies of council "socail distancing marshalls" descending on you with prohibition notices and dire warnings of prosecution and prison sentences for non-compliance.

No point running a small business these days, unless you're in the business of supplying masks of course. The government and / or local council can simply close you down on a whim.

Having been, many years ago, subject to the vindictive nature of council enforcement types, I have absolutely no doubts that they will use these new powers to get rid of local businesses they don't like or who have taken them on in some way. What's the point even bothering trying to eke out a meagre living from that situation?

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Bolton on the next naughty step up?

Bolton coronavirus: Transport and social distance measures increased

People are asked to reduce public transport use and avoid mixing outside their social bubble.

www.bbc.co.uk

Tougher measures are being introduced in Bolton in an effort to stop coronavirus cases rising and prevent a full local lockdown.

The infection rate in the area has risen to 99 cases per 100,000 people per week - the highest in England.

Those aged between 18 and 49 account for more than 90% of cases.

Announcing new and immediate measures affecting transport and social mixing, council bosses pleaded for "everyone in Bolton to play their part".

Residents have been asked to only use public transport for essential purposes, which means travel to education, work, and essential matters such as hospital appointments.

People have also been told not to mix with other households in any setting indoors or outdoors anywhere, except in their support bubble.

In a joint statement, council leader David Greenhalgh and chief executive Tony Oakham said: "It has been a tough period for individuals, families and businesses but we don't want to throw away all our hard work by allowing the infection rate to rise even higher.

"Now, more than ever, we need everyone in Bolton to play their part.

"Nobody wants these restrictions to remain a moment longer than necessary and we believe these new measures will keep everyone safe and help avoid a full lockdown in Bolton."

Dr Helen Lowey, director of Public Health for Bolton Council, said: "We are carrying out extra testing including giving out home testing kits, and are carrying out extra site visits to support businesses to be Covid secure, and carrying out enforcement where necessary.

"Evidence from Oldham and Blackburn shows stopping households mixing works."

Bolton's move comes as other parts of Greater Manchester, Lancashire and West Yorkshire move out of stricter lockdown measures.

 

[jtuk]

Dr Helen Lowey, director of Public Health for Bolton Council, said: "We are carrying out extra testing including giving out home testing kits, and are carrying out extra site visits to support businesses to be Covid secure, and carrying out enforcement where necessary.

Why do they engage with this sort of thing just to potentially find more "cases" which we know are probably going to be non-infectious

 

[Smidster]

It is worth noting that there is no legal power behind the latest guidance in Bolton - I just hope we don't see anyone trying to go beyond their powers.

There was actually an interesting legal case in NZ that decided that lockdown was legal but making proclamations before the law was on the statute book was not (so like we had here between March 23rd and 26th)

 

[Richard Scott]

Again they're fussing about younger people getting this virus, chances are all will make a healthy recovery and contribute towards herd immunity, more of this age group that have it sooner it happens and vulnerable can stop shielding. I just wish politicians would step back, look at this in the wider context rather than reacting hysterically every time a few people (let's be honest 99 in 100,000 is not a huge figure) contract this virus otherwise we're going to be carrying on like this for a very long time.

 

[6Gman]

Dr Helen Lowey, director of Public Health for Bolton Council, said: "We are carrying out extra testing including giving out home testing kits, and are carrying out extra site visits to support businesses to be Covid secure, and carrying out enforcement where necessary.

Why do they engage with this sort of thing just to potentially find more "cases" which we know are probably going to be non-infectious

Do we ?

 

[jtuk]

Do we ?

Well, there was that story that was the lead story on the BBC website (of all places) yesterday from Heneghan saying the standard test is so terrible it'll pick up dead fragments of virus, then there's this one:

Experts: US COVID-19 positivity rate high due to 'too sensitive' tests

Up to 90 percent of people tested for COVID-19 in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada in July carried barely any traces of the virus, a new report says.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Up to 90 percent of people tested for COVID-19 in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada in July carried barely any traces of the virus and it could be because today's tests are 'too sensitive', experts say.

Health experts say PCR testing - the most widely used diagnostic test for COVID-19 in the US - are too sensitive and need to be adjusted to rule out people who have insignificant amounts of the virus in their systems because they're likely not contagious.

Today the PCR test, which provides a yes or no answer if a patient is infected, doesn't say how much of the virus a patient has in their body.

PCR tests analyze genetic matter from the virus in cycles and today's tests typically take 37 or 40 cycles, but experts say this is too high because it detects very small amounts of the virus that don't pose a risk.

 

[Crossover]

Dr Helen Lowey, director of Public Health for Bolton Council, said: "We are carrying out extra testing including giving out home testing kits, and are carrying out extra site visits to support businesses to be Covid secure, and carrying out enforcement where necessary.

Why do they engage with this sort of thing just to potentially find more "cases" which we know are probably going to be non-infectious

More to the point, the more that are tested the more positives that are likely to be found, so it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy

What would likely be more useful is to see the positive test results in the context of the number carried out. Being cynical, this may show that per 1000 tests, say, these ‘bad’ areas are no worse than anywhere else, but of course it wouldn’t fit the agenda

 

[island]

It is worth noting that there is no legal power behind the latest guidance in Bolton - I just hope we don't see anyone trying to go beyond their powers.

There’ll probably be an ”emergency” Statutory instrument wheeled out some time round the middle of next week.

 

[takno]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/covid-19-could-be-endemic-in-deprived-parts-of-england

Produced in the last few weeks and containing data up to August, it states: “The overall analysis suggests Bolton, Manchester, Oldham and Rochdale never really left the epidemic phase – and that nine of the 10 boroughs [of Greater Manchester] are currently experiencing an epidemic phase.”


It also questions, under a heading marked for “discussion”, why anyone should expect fresh local lockdowns to work in these areas now: “If we accept the premise that in some areas the infection is now endemic – how does this change our strategy? If these areas were not able to attain near zero-Covid status during full lockdown, how realistic is it that we can expect current restriction escalations to work?”

interesting article about a report which suggests that in a lot of poorer districts in locked-down areas the virus was never significantly suppressed during the national lockdown, and questioning whether there is any point in the local lockdowns as a result.

As is traditional with many UK Guardian articles, they also got a comment from the duty gloomster at Independent Sage, who was appropriately scandalised at the suggestion that it was a waste of time. They also made some valid points about the government needing to provide decent financial support and possibly accomodation to isolate in, since it's effectively impossible if you can't afford time off and live packed on with other people in a similar position.

 

[yorkie]

interesting article...

It raises all sorts of questions, such as what was the point in the national lockdown, and what is the point in the local lockdowns now?

What are we trying to achieve? People seem very confused; there is no consensus.

Is the aim to avoid local hospitals becoming overwhelmed, or is it to achieve so-called "Zero Covid" or is it to keep cases low until a vaccine is rolled out, or is it because we don't have a plan and must be seen to be doing something, or is it just pandering to the authoritarian hysterical brigade?

How long could this go on for? People like Chris Witty seem to think such restrictions could go on for another year or more but that's not realistic.

Are we taking into account the bigger picture? I don't think so

Do people in these areas really want this? Of course, the pro-authoritarian vocal minorities do, but the vast majority of people don't seem to agree with it. It's causing major hardship which is likely to be far more damaging for most people than the effects of the virus.

Here's another interesting article:

Coronavirus doctor's diary: The 'moonshine weddings' breaking Bradford's lockdown

Weddings held in back gardens and restaurants are one of many ways the local lockdown is being violated.

www.bbc.co.uk

The lifting of restrictions on social gatherings in some areas of Bradford but not others has led to relief for some residents and resentment from others....

... it doesn't take much shoe-leather detective work on a sunny weekend to realise how little notice people are paying. Gardens blossom with boisterous gatherings, pubs and restaurants ooze chatter and cheer. Everywhere young people mingle with careless abandon.

And yet...

The hospital has transformed from the busiest place in the city during the peak of the pandemic to become the quietest.

The restrictions are counter-productive; the article goes on to say:

He's written to the city council explaining that it would be easy to hold a socially distanced wedding for a large group of people in his banqueting hall, if it was filled only to 30% or 40% of capacity. The closure of such venues, he argues, inevitably results in weddings without social distancing.


"What they've done here is - like in America in the 1920s during Prohibition, when no alcohol was allowed - they've started a moonshine culture. They've started moonshine weddings, because what you're getting is people who have no other option."

Our overly-authoritarian approach is making things worse; it's ridiculous. It's time to end the lockdowns.

 

[bramling]

It raises all sorts of questions, such as what was the point in the national lockdown, and what is the point in the local lockdowns now?

What are we trying to achieve? People seem very confused; there is no consensus.

Is the aim to avoid local hospitals becoming overwhelmed, or is it to achieve so-called "Zero Covid" or is it to keep cases low until a vaccine is rolled out, or is it because we don't have a plan and must be seen to be doing something, or is it just pandering to the authoritarian hysterical brigade?

How long could this go on for? People like Chris Witty seem to think such restrictions could go on for another year or more but that's not realistic.

Are we taking into account the bigger picture? I don't think so

Do people in these areas really want this? Of course, the pro-authoritarian vocal minorities do, but the vast majority of people don't seem to agree with it. It's causing major hardship which is likely to be far more damaging for most people than the effects of the virus.

Here's another interesting article:

Coronavirus doctor's diary: The 'moonshine weddings' breaking Bradford's lockdown

Weddings held in back gardens and restaurants are one of many ways the local lockdown is being violated.

www.bbc.co.uk

And yet...

The restrictions are counter-productive; the article goes on to say:



Our overly-authoritarian approach is making things worse; it's ridiculous. It's time to end the lockdowns.

It’s certainly perverse to be pursuing a policy where no one quite seems to know what the objective is.

 

[Bantamzen]

<Puts on tin hat>

Around these parts there is more than a sneaking feeling that these local lockdowns, which notably have been pretty much exclusive to the M62 corridor, are more about the leadership of those boroughs than the virus itself. As testing in these areas increases, so do the number of cases, which in turn appears to strengthen the government's case. The magic number seems to be at around 40 cases per 100,000 (or a whopping 0.04% of the population), but can vary according to the political colour of the respective councils. Allegedly.

This feeling is strengthened when areas like mine (with a very vocal Conservative MP) are suddenly released from the local restrictions, even though there had been no cases for literally weeks at the time the lockdown was ordered. So it seems we were only deemed "clean" when the central government found out that our ward was Tory.....

<Takes off tin hat>