can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[Bikeman78]

That part of the leisure market that relates to attending sports events, competing in running, going to concerts, has yet to return.

True. If/when those thing resume, more people will have to use public transport or the city centre will grind to a halt.

 

[talldave]

It seems the railway is slipping back into its traditional authoritarian customer-unfriendly role. This isn't going to attract passengers!

https://twitter.com/Se_Railway/status/1299232774398898177?s=19

Tweet shows a face mask graphic with the text: "You must wear a face covering, unless exempt. £100 fine applies.

 

[jkkne]

Not at all, I wouldn't want to be at home, as I value the social contact that work brings, and have seen the effects on other people that not having this contact can bring (and I say that as someone who *isn't* really a people person!). In fact if people wish to genuinely work at home then in theory it benefits me as it means my journey to work is less crowded / congested.

What I'm less keen on is the notion that all this home working is fine and dandy. It isn't. We're having a lot of issues where people working at home simply aren't performing the full range of work that they would normally be doing, which is causing some issues. We've also had examples where people have contacted staff who are meant to be working at home, and they were clearly neither working nor at home!

That suggests a poor/inefficient management structure at your work place.

Home working is/has been fairly common and successful where I work and it's working for us but we have a level of trust and responsibility between us to do the job.

 

[LowLevel]

First day for me today that felt as if the pandemic hadn't happened (bar the masks). Well filled trains, took several times my wage for the day in revenue and people were mostly behaving themselves. Let's see if we can go a Saturday without Mask Wars spilling claret everywhere and puke/piss anywhere but the bog in the evening - I doubt it.

 

[The Prisoner]

Just tried to book to go from Chester to Slough on Wednesday for a business meeting. Avanti are not offering through ticketing on their website and are being quite open about it.

I can book the same journey on GWR's site and there is availability (seating) on the Chester to London element (TfW and then Avanti) in both directions for the services I wanted to use as both offering me specific seats when I tried a dummy booking.

Are Avanti in breach of their franchise?

Going to drive in any event. Somehow don't feel hugely welcome. We are going to take a long time to get back to where we were clearly.

Sorry for posting the screen grab - not sure how to link to tweets.

 

[PHILIPE]

TFW resumed calling at Earlestown today having ceased on July 6th, the reason being due to the view of the whole train because of the sharpness of the curvature of the platform TFW use. This was not publicised by TFW (typical of them) and had to be reminded to remove the closure from their Journey Check. How it came about I do not know but I'm sure the station or the trains hadn't undergone any alterations. However, systems had been updated

 

[Markdvdman]

Well I was on a Ystrad Mynach to Bridgend service from Cardiff Central at 7:24am this am and ALL the way to Cadoxton, the same pre-recorded message thanking Key Workers for travelling today was being bleated out by the same guy that said it before the lifted the 'Essential Travel' nonsense. I complained on Twitter, they will pass the message on. No hope of Rail services recovering with that kind of attitude! TFW are really doing a very bad job!!!

 

[Yew]

Regarding the through ticketing, that sounds like someone who doesn't really know what they're on about?

 

[Mag_seven]

The head of TfL is going on an offensive to convince the public in London that public transport in the city is safe. We need this sort of stuff from National Rail /RDG as well!

TfL commissioner: We need to make people feel safe on public transport

Signing Andy Byford, the man who transformed the New York subway, was a coup for TfL. With passengers staying away he’s got a hell of a job — but, as he tells Samuel Fishwick, he’s up to it

www.standard.co.uk

TfL commissioner: We need to make people feel safe on public transport

 

[Jozhua]

Seeing more people out on the public transport every week. The streets of Manchester are as busy as they were pre-lockdown and whilst I haven't seen any crush loading, I have seen trams pretty much fully occupied.

I saw a similar article in The Guardian yesterday. It's just shocking to even think that the atmosphere of city centres will die and become glorified suburbs if commuting keeps trending downward in the long term. The government just need to start a national campaign to get people back on trains, and reinforce that it is good for the environment while keeping businesses alive.

I doubt it, plenty of people are getting out and about again. Landlords & property management just have to be forgiving with their tenants and negotiate a way through for the next few months.

What's wrong with city centres being places of relatively high density living alongside entertainment, places to meet and specialist retail? It sounds pretty good to me. The daily commuting grind just isn't good for anyone.

As for chain stores and poor quality chain restaurants, good riddance, they're rubbish and a short blip on history, being big for maybe 40 years or so. Supermarkets were already making inroads into killing them off.

Fair, some chains are okay, but many don't really do anything unique.

Potentially so. Paradoxically, a reduction in commuters (provided it isn't to zero) and a balancing of flows is a good thing for train operators, not a bad thing. Large commuter flows are very expensive to provide for, and season ticket holders pay typically little more (often less) than off peak returns.

Potentially. Operators sure still seem to be enjoying providing much reduced service frequency

But yeah, a larger spread off commuters throughout the day and week is likely a good thing. Although it might make life more annoying for us off peak travelling folk.

 

[jkkne]

I'm doing one morning in the office a week and I commute using the Tyne and Wear Metro.

Loads are at about 38% on last year based on what NE1 tell us, there's still lots of train cancellations due to driver availability and Newcastle and the suburbs are pretty dead. In comparison the coast and parks are extremely busy.

Normally I'd not get a seat on my train but its absolutely dead as a dodo. Buses look equally bad when I pass them. Expect another bailout for Metro incoming

 

[158756]

I'm doing one morning in the office a week and I commute using the Tyne and Wear Metro.

Loads are at about 38% on last year based on what NE1 tell us, there's still lots of train cancellations due to driver availability and Newcastle and the suburbs are pretty dead. In comparison the coast and parks are extremely busy.

Normally I'd not get a seat on my train but its absolutely dead as a dodo. Buses look equally bad when I pass them. Expect another bailout for Metro incoming

Who's going to pay for it though. The government can't and won't pour money into loss making enterprises forever, particularly as it is looking increasingly likely that the demand isn't going to come back - the UK is far behind other European countries in returning to work. If demand is stuck at 38%, sooner or later we will end up with 38% of a service.

 

[BJames]

The head of TfL is going on an offensive to convince the public in London that public transport in the city is safe. We need this sort of stuff from National Rail /RDG as well!

TfL commissioner: We need to make people feel safe on public transport

Signing Andy Byford, the man who transformed the New York subway, was a coup for TfL. With passengers staying away he’s got a hell of a job — but, as he tells Samuel Fishwick, he’s up to it

www.standard.co.uk

I respect Andy Byford and he's got a good record. I completely agree that we need more of this rhetoric from the top to get people back - people are still stuck in the mindset of public transport = 100% chance of catching covid.

He's right of course that the mixed messaging from government is making getting people back on public transport much harder.

 

[LittleAH]

The head of TfL is going on an offensive to convince the public in London that public transport in the city is safe. We need this sort of stuff from National Rail /RDG as well!

TfL commissioner: We need to make people feel safe on public transport

Signing Andy Byford, the man who transformed the New York subway, was a coup for TfL. With passengers staying away he’s got a hell of a job — but, as he tells Samuel Fishwick, he’s up to it

www.standard.co.uk

It's not National Rail/RDG - it is the DfT. They're withholding doing this due to fears around kids going back to school/people going back in the office bumping numbers up top quickly.

 

[jkkne]

Who's going to pay for it though. The government can't and won't pour money into loss making enterprises forever, particularly as it is looking increasingly likely that the demand isn't going to come back - the UK is far behind other European countries in returning to work. If demand is stuck at 38%, sooner or later we will end up with 38% of a service.

I entirely agree. The mismanagement of the Metro is another thing altogether.

Operators could adapt by offering flexible yearly tickets, likelihood is a large majority of us will commute less and be in our offices less. A 3 day a week ticket would help

 

[158756]

I entirely agree. The mismanagement of the Metro is another thing altogether.

Operators could adapt by offering flexible yearly tickets, likelihood is a large majority of us will commute less and be in our offices less. A 3 day a week ticket would help

Flexible season tickets would help public transport in attracting market share in the 'new normal', but even if people go back 3 days a week ultimately the only sustainable way for the sector to adapt is to shrink.

 

[Bikeman78]

I respect Andy Byford and he's got a good record. I completely agree that we need more of this rhetoric from the top to get people back - people are still stuck in the mindset of public transport = 100% chance of catching covid.

He's right of course that the mixed messaging from government is making getting people back on public transport much harder.

That's me screwed then I've spent three days this week riding around on trains.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Sep 2020 ==

I entirely agree. The mismanagement of the Metro is another thing altogether.

Operators could adapt by offering flexible yearly tickets, likelihood is a large majority of us will commute less and be in our offices less. A 3 day a week ticket would help

Merseyrail has already introduced such a ticket, albeit weekly rather than annual. I saw several adverts for it.

 

[BJames]

That's me screwed then I've spent three days this week riding around on trains.

FWIW I've spent the last few weeks using public transport as normal. The low loadings are concerning but being almost guaranteed to have a table to myself on the intercity services is always nice.

 

[Huntergreed]

Posters at Hemel Hempstead station still showing “essential journeys only”, and clearly the posters are recent as they were also discusssing engineering work taking place at the end of August. This mixed-messaging has got to stop. So far, I’ve seen “essential only” on Scotrail, LNWR and certain TfL stations this week. This is so bad when the industry desperately needs passengers back as soon as possible.

 

[Meerkat]

The head of TfL is going on an offensive to convince the public in London that public transport in the city is safe. We need this sort of stuff from National Rail /RDG as well!

TfL commissioner: We need to make people feel safe on public transport

Signing Andy Byford, the man who transformed the New York subway, was a coup for TfL. With passengers staying away he’s got a hell of a job — but, as he tells Samuel Fishwick, he’s up to it

www.standard.co.uk

The chap goes on and on about cleaning, but I thought they had decided airborne transmission was a much bigger threat than contact?

 

[yorkie]

Posters at Hemel Hempstead station still showing “essential journeys only”, and clearly the posters are recent as they were also discusssing engineering work taking place at the end of August. This mixed-messaging has got to stop. So far, I’ve seen “essential only” on Scotrail, LNWR and certain TfL stations this week. This is so bad when the industry desperately needs passengers back as soon as possible.

Do tweet West Midlands Trains; @Ken_Ilworth made a report about a similar notice at a nearby station, when we were on another walk a few weeks ago and they tweeted back while we were in the pub after the walk confirming it had been removed already.

The chap goes on and on about cleaning, but I thought they had decided airborne transmission was a much bigger threat than contact?

I think it's more about reassuring people and being seen to be acting responsibly, than having an actual impact.

FWIW I've spent the last few weeks using public transport as normal. The low loadings are concerning but being almost guaranteed to have a table to myself on the intercity services is always nice.

Likewise. Nearly always get a table to myself (though complying with Government guidelines often means ignoring the announcements made by LNER; it's often impossible to comply with both!)

I've been contributing loading info to this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/how-busy-have-your-trains-been.207156/

 

[yorksrob]

The chap goes on and on about cleaning, but I thought they had decided airborne transmission was a much bigger threat than contact?

As far as I'm aware, there was some discussion a few weeks ago that airborne transmission was possibly more significant than previously thought.

Nowhere have I seen any suggestion that it is anywhere near as significant as transmission through droplets or contact with surfaces.

 

[The Ham]

Flexible season tickets would help public transport in attracting market share in the 'new normal', but even if people go back 3 days a week ultimately the only sustainable way for the sector to adapt is to shrink.

Given that about 50% of rail travel is commuting and 3 days a week is 60%, therefore even if 100% of commuting can be done by working from home that's a 20% fall in rail use. However, even if it's 75% of jobs can be done then that's a 15% fall.

A 15% fall would only take most services to levels seen about 4 years ago, even 20% would be less than 6 years ago.

 

[Scrotnig]

Posters at Hemel Hempstead station still showing “essential journeys only”, and clearly the posters are recent as they were also discusssing engineering work taking place at the end of August. This mixed-messaging has got to stop. So far, I’ve seen “essential only” on Scotrail, LNWR and certain TfL stations this week. This is so bad when the industry desperately needs passengers back as soon as possible.

The industry desperately needs passengers yes, but currently the industry seems to be very much enjoying carrying as few passengers as possible and being paid by the government to do so.

A bit like the 'Facebook Furloughs' who think their free money will carry on if restrictions are prolonged, I fear too many in the industry have a vested interest in keeping all this nonsense going.

 

[yorksrob]

Given that about 50% of rail travel is commuting and 3 days a week is 60%, therefore even if 100% of commuting can be done by working from home that's a 20% fall in rail use. However, even if it's 75% of jobs can be done then that's a 15% fall.

A 15% fall would only take most services to levels seen about 4 years ago, even 20% would be less than 6 years ago.

Quite.

This is the point forgotten by most people. Passenger usage has apparently doubled since privatisation. We weren't contemplating massive reductions then, and we shouldn't let the powers that beget away with doing so now, if things drop back a bit.

 

[birchesgreen]

I seem to recall before March (feels like 10 years ago i know) the daily moan was about sardine can trains that people couldn't physically board never mind find a seat on hence the massive investment in new capacity. Hopefully rail travel will return to some kind of more manageable medium.

 

[The Ham]

Quite.

This is the point forgotten by most people. Passenger usage has apparently doubled since privatisation. We weren't contemplating massive reductions then, and we shouldn't let the powers that beget away with doing so now, if things drop back a bit.

Indeed, and whilst there'll be regional variations with the biggest drops being around London. Now given that loading on peak services can easily be 120% of capacity a 40% fall would mean loadings of 72%.

IF there was a need to reduce rail capacity chances are it would be by reducing 10 or 12 coach trains to bring shorter rather than the closure of entire lines or significant reduction in frequency.

 

[telstarbox]

The DfT have summarised NR ticket sales data since the start of the pandemic, in comparison to the equivalent week last year. At the end of August this is still below 40%.

The London Underground data largely matches the NR data, except for an earlier drop-off in March.

(Graph by me)

 

[yorksrob]

Well, it's creeping up anyway, although there's a limit to how far it will go without a full office return.

The key thing is not to impose knee-jerk cuts that are going to destroy the recovery in the sectors that are placed to bounce back quicker, such as leisure.

 

[telstarbox]

It's hard to say from just that data, particularly in the way it covers season ticket journeys (see the above link for full methodology).

In August, the increase could have resulted from more day trips to the beach etc (some good weather and less 'essential travel' messaging) rather than weekday commuting bouncing back. Anecdotally I know very few office workers in London who've gone back to regular commuting.