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Is transport usage a good proxy for a population's confidence in its government?

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squizzler

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I am fortunate to have spent this pandemic in Jersey, Channel Islands. My local experience vis-a-vis reports coming in regarding anecdotes of travel in the UK, USA, gave rise to speculation that transport ridership is a barometer as to how confident the public are that their government has got things under control. On that metric, it would seem that people are not confident in the UK or USA government since their transport use remains heavily depressed. Many EU and Asian countries, on the other hand, have ridership back to normal or very close, indicating those populations have much greater faith in those in power. Here in Jersey, the bus ridership is close to recovered and corresponds with my own feeling that our government is containing the outbreak.

If one ponders that thought, it gives rise to a the possibility that the UK government messaging on transport usage represents an attempt to save face by observing existing trends and trying to announce it it as their own initiative, hardly a novel behaviour in politics. That would explain travel advice that was at such variance with the experience of the rest of the world, namely requesting people not to use transport networks to a much greater extent - and for a more prolonged spell after the 'lockdown'. They would know from their own opinion polling that the public were are aware of their incompetence and would abandon communal travel anyway. By making a public plea not to use transport, the government was able to portray the empty transport network as a sign of public compliance with government measures to fight the pandemic rather than the more likely reason - collapse of national morale in the face of their dysfunctional management of a health emergency.
 
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Mojo

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Throughout much of the early part of lockdown various commentators seemed to take great delight in sharing screenshots of the “Citymapper Mobility Index” allegedly showing how high public transport usage was in London compared with other major cities.

Having a look at it now, this shows London at 49%, in comparison with Hong Kong and Rome at 43%, Sydney and Barcelona at 39%, Seoul at 26% and Tokyo at 8%. London sits about half way up the league table.

Now I’m not quite sure how accurate this is, because according to news reports at the time it is based upon the number of trip planning requests and I’m not sure why you’d need to plan a trip for your daily journey.
 

trebor79

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The cynic in me wonders if there is a longer term plan in play.
"Oh look, nobody is using these expensive subsidised buses and trains anymore. Let's get rid of most of them..."
 

Richard Scott

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Throughout much of the early part of lockdown various commentators seemed to take great delight in sharing screenshots of the “Citymapper Mobility Index” allegedly showing how high public transport usage was in London compared with other major cities.

Having a look at it now, this shows London at 49%, in comparison with Hong Kong and Rome at 43%, Sydney and Barcelona at 39%, Seoul at 26% and Tokyo at 8%. London sits about half way up the league table.

Now I’m not quite sure how accurate this is, because according to news reports at the time it is based upon the number of trip planning requests and I’m not sure why you’d need to plan a trip for your daily journey.
Went on Circle Line last week around 09.00 and hardly anyone on it. Not what I'd expect for a normal weekday. Surprised usage is close to 50% of normal.
 

island

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Now I’m not quite sure how accurate this is, because according to news reports at the time it is based upon the number of trip planning requests and I’m not sure why you’d need to plan a trip for your daily journey.
In this forum I wager many members don’t need to plan any Local journeys :E
 

AM9

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In this forum I wager many members don’t need to plan any Local journeys :E
Precisely, - the view of some here seems to be that their anecdotal examples represent the rest of the UK' (and soemtimes the world's) behaviour. However much they might wish it to be the case, it doesn't make it real.
 

yorksrob

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I must admit, I wasn't aware that Jersey was all that big on public transport.

I don't remember seeing much of it on Bergerac anyway.
 

philosopher

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Went on Circle Line last week around 09.00 and hardly anyone on it. Not what I'd expect for a normal weekday. Surprised usage is close to 50% of normal.

I did use the Victoria Line in Central London today at 13:00 and it was the first tube train I have been on since March that had people standing. Loading on that line may have been high though due to engineering work on the Bank branch of the Northern Line.

The train I subsequently got from Euston to Birmingham only had 5 people in the carriage though.
 
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baz962

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I did use the Victoria Line in Central London today at 13:00 and it was the first tube train I have been on since March that had people standing. Loading on that line may have been high though due to engineering work on the Bank branch of the Northern Line.

The train I subsequently got from Euston to Birmingham only had 5 people in the carriage though.
I think in London it will get busier , earlier than the other tocs. I did get on a very busy Thameslink train the other day , going home. As an overground driver , I have driven some very busy train's and been on a few as a passenger. Yesterday or Thursday a colleague of mine was driving a train and some passengers couldn't even get on.
 

yorksrob

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I think in London it will get busier , earlier than the other tocs. I did get on a very busy Thameslink train the other day , going home. As an overground driver , I have driven some very busy train's and been on a few as a passenger. Yesterday or Thursday a colleague of mine was driving a train and some passengers couldn't even get on.

You're too late.

Regional local services up North are already buzzin !
 

Dr Hoo

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Although this thread seems to be about the current post COVID recovery it did put in my mind the remarkable inverse correlation between rail usage and the number of Labour MPs (for which I have no explanation).

In 1997 Tony Blair won 418 seats and GB rail usage was 800m journeys per annum
By 2010 Labour was down to 258 seats but usage had risen to 1,258m journeys
By 2019 Labour finished on 202 seats but usage had reached 1,756m journeys

So, Labour MPs more than halved, rail usage more than doubled.

And it would be easy to imagine that the next election (whenever it is) would be likely to see more Labour MPs against a fall in usage, apparently demonstrating the inverse correlation works both ways.

(This is all offered purely as a mathematical/statistical/random observation.)
 

baz962

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You're too late.

Regional local services up North are already buzzin !
Oo a competition lol. I was quite busy all through lockdown , but only around 6 am and 5 pm briefly. Now it's everyday and was very busy again yesterday.
 
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