Boris to resign? (Speculation) And who should replace him?

[DynamicSpirit]

I feel a little suspicious of this story, because it would seem so out-of-character for Boris. His entire political career has basically been focused around, doing and saying whatever it takes to manoeuvre his way into Downing Street. I'm pretty sure he didn't spend the last 20 years doing that in order to spend barely 18 months as Prime Minister. Of course it's possible things have changed. Maybe he isn't enjoying the job the way he expected to. Maybe his health really has been damaged, leading him to reconsider (the way he's changed his mind on obesity does at least show he is open to reconsidering stuff). And maybe the growing signs of dissatisfaction on the Tory backbenches are having an effect. But even so, normal form for Boris would be to do whatever manipulation and wheeling-and-dealing are necessary for him to keep power as long as possible. Deciding to resign in 6 months just doesn't seem to me like him.

 

[Domh245]

I noted a story on the BBC this morning about Boris hiring a personal trainer - presumably this is to counter the speculation about him retiring!

I feel a little suspicious of this story, because it would seem so out-of-character for Boris. His entire political career has basically been focused around, doing and saying whatever it takes to manoeuvre his way into Downing Street. I'm pretty sure he didn't spend the last 20 years doing that in order to spend barely 18 months as Prime Minister.

I rather suspect that the main reason Boris wanted to get into No 10 was to get out the other side again and become an ex-PM. Commands a higher fee for public speaking (etc) and avoids the whole issue of having to run a country

 

[Typhoon]

I feel a little suspicious of this story, because it would seem so out-of-character for Boris. His entire political career has basically been focused around, doing and saying whatever it takes to manoeuvre his way into Downing Street. I'm pretty sure he didn't spend the last 20 years doing that in order to spend barely 18 months as Prime Minister. Of course it's possible things have changed. Maybe he isn't enjoying the job the way he expected to. Maybe his health really has been damaged, leading him to reconsider (the way he's changed his mind on obesity does at least show he is open to reconsidering stuff). And maybe the growing signs of dissatisfaction on the Tory backbenches are having an effect. But even so, normal form for Boris would be to do whatever manipulation and wheeling-and-dealing are necessary for him to keep power as long as possible. Deciding to resign in 6 months just doesn't seem to me like him.

I wonder whether it is a ploy with the expectation (hope) that the rank and file would rush to print with messages imploring him to stay. I was under the impression that he wants to be liked, perhaps he's not feeling the love?

 

[jfollows]

I've thought about these things from time to time, and for some reason I end up categorising people in three groups, this seems to happen to me in different circumstances, but here:

• One third of Conservative MPs hate Boris and always have done
• One third of Conservative MPs think Boris is wonderful and the answer to all our prayers
• One third of Conservative MPs don't mind if he's doing a good job but otherwise would prefer someone else

Also, there's a lot of them who want to keep their seats which they won unexpectedly in 2019.

So between these two dynamics there are lots of reasons I think Boris will get the boot before long. Those who loathe him and always have done are a substantial minority.

That's simplistic and I know it. But, as always, it's the ones in the middle who will make the running and will eventually decide his fate I think.

As to who might replace him, I think Gove is most likely, but never forget that he made his daughter have a Covid-19 test when these were generally only available to people in hospital in order to enable him to escape his isolation at home in case she was infected. Basically a different rule for him than for the rest of us. I think he will be the replacement, but I don't want him to be.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

He will resign-he could not face Starmer in a General Election. The Scots him. The public will never get over the Dominic Cummings incident and will unlikely vote for him again if Cummings is still around. A Sunak vs Starmer election would be very engaging and I think, will be a "return to normal politics" moment for the UK.

I think Priti Patel will win, because she will snap up the membership vote.

 

[Meerkat]

He will resign-he could not face Starmer in a General Election. The Scots him. The public will never get over the Dominic Cummings incident and will unlikely vote for him again if Cummings is still around. A Sunak vs Starmer election would be very engaging and I think, will be a "return to normal politics" moment for the UK.

I think Priti Patel will win, because she will snap up the membership vote.

I think you really overestimate the effect of the Cummings incident - it only really enrages those who already viewed him as the devil incarnate.
Priti Patel is a moron - I think the MPs would make sure that she never got through.
personally I don’t think Boris will resign. Before they binned him I reckon the senior Tories would try to force him to have a better senior cabinet - Boris is still better PR than most of the alternatives.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think you really overestimate the effect of the Cummings incident - it only really enrages those who already viewed him as the devil incarnate.
Priti Patel is a moron - I think the MPs would make sure that she never got through.
personally I don’t think Boris will resign. Before they binned him I reckon the senior Tories would try to force him to have a better senior cabinet - Boris is still better PR than most of the alternatives.

Definitely an option. Get Brexit done. Then you don't need loyalists. Pick a much stronger cabinet not sira^selickerbrunette types. Sunak definitely. Bring back Sajid. I think Priti Patel would be good PR myself. You could end up having a more diverse cabinet than Labour could ever dream of. But Boris WILL stay until Brexit is done. Do a deal with a successor to get a Lords seat and Boris still looks like a hero resigning on ill health grounds.

 

[Cowley]

Do a deal with a successor to get a Lords seat and Boris still looks like a hero resigning on ill health grounds.

That certainly would be quite a good way for him to leave if he or the party are looking for a way to get him out.

 

[Typhoon]

I think you really overestimate the effect of the Cummings incident - it only really enrages those who already viewed him as the devil incarnate.

I agree. It will be brought up as an item of humour at end of year reviews but by next Spring it will be largely forgotten. More crucially will be the exams fiasco and perhaps care homes. Both of these involve people, who won't forget.

Personally I don’t think Boris will resign.

I think a lot will depend on whether he thinks he can win. He won't want to be seen as a loser; about 2 years before the election he'll start to weigh up his options and the 'health grounds' option suggested by @GRALISTAIR seems a good way out.

 

[Tetchytyke]

His entire political career has basically been focused around, doing and saying whatever it takes to manoeuvre his way into Downing Street.

Boris, IMO, always wanted to be PM and always wanted to be an ex-PM. It's the bit in the middle he isn't keen on. You saw that in London, outside an election year you never saw or heard from him.

I don't think he'll resign, but I think he looks really tired. Dr Who fans will get my meaning.

I think you really overestimate the effect of the Cummings incident - it only really enrages those who already viewed him as the devil incarnate.

I'm not so sure, Brexity friends I have were not impressed. Not "enraged", but certainly not impressed; "taking the ****" was the phrase they used. Your classic small-c conservatives do not take kindly to people not playing by the rules. It has undermined faith in the government.

 

[Bevan Price]

Boris has always wanted to be P.M.
Provided he remains healthy, I think he will stay for as long as he can -- either until he loses an election, or the party decides he is a liability, reducing their chances of winning an election.
Whilst Labour with Starmer has improved its image & popularity, it may take a couple of elections before it is again trusted enough to win an election.

 

[Mojo]

Michael Gove has always come across as quite sensible and not pandering to the hysteria all throughout this.

I think the lack of action on the key issues of late such as law and order and the illegal immigrants crossing the channel will have harmed Patel amongst the grassroots membership.

 

[edwin_m]

Michael Gove has always come across as quite sensible and not pandering to the hysteria all throughout this.

I think the lack of action on the key issues of late such as law and order and the illegal immigrants crossing the channel will have harmed Patel amongst the grassroots membership.

By messing removing coursework assessment from most exams as Education Secretary he carries a lot of responsibility for the current problems with estimating results. He also returned them very much to rote learning rather than getting a real understanding of the subject. All driven by personal prejudice by the look of it (he also said we'd had enough of experts during the Brexit process).

 

[alex397]

Michael Gove has always come across as quite sensible and not pandering to the hysteria all throughout this.

I think the lack of action on the key issues of late such as law and order and the illegal immigrants crossing the channel will have harmed Patel amongst the grassroots membership.

Gove is one of the worst people I’d like to see replacing Johnson. I’d rather have someone who listens to experts rather than being someone who has ‘had enough of experts’. He has also said that ‘the day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want’. I do not trust the man at all, but I don’t think I trust the majority of them. His reputation with education isn’t exactly great either.

Priti Patel is priti awful when it comes to pandering to the far-right with the migrant ‘crisis’. Her lack of knowledge about her own department and international law is also rather concerning.

 

[Meerkat]

And yet another quote edited to significantly change its meaning

 

[alex397]

And yet another quote edited to significantly change its meaning

And which quote is that?

 

[DB]

Boris has always wanted to be P.M.
Provided he remains healthy, I think he will stay for as long as he can -- either until he loses an election, or the party decides he is a liability, reducing their chances of winning an election.
Whilst Labour with Starmer has improved its image & popularity, it may take a couple of elections before it is again trusted enough to win an election.

A couple of elections? That would be another 14 years or so. I very much doubt it will tske that long. There is normally a maximum time period for either of the main parties to hold on to power, and the Tories must be close to reaching it by the next election. Especially if they don't get any meaningful trade deals sorted soon!

 

[Meerkat]

And which quote is that?

“Had enough of experts”

 

[Ianno87]

“Had enough of experts”

Gove also claimed that the Brexit vote was analagous to toppling the Berlin Wall, which is so unbelievably insulting, I don't know where to begin...

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Whilst Labour with Starmer has improved its image & popularity, it may take a couple of elections before it is again trusted enough to win an election.

1 election maximum. He could lose in 2024 but making a huge dent on the Conservative majority but if Labour hold their nerve they should get elected in 2029.

 

[Meerkat]

Gove also claimed that the Brexit vote was analagous to toppling the Berlin Wall, which is so unbelievably insulting, I don't know where to begin...

“Also”? He didn’t say he “had had enough of experts”

 

[Busaholic]

“Also”? He didn’t say he “had had enough of experts”

He said ''people in this country have had enough of experts'' in a Sky News question and answer session, in which he was later asked if he'd ever be a Conservative Party leadership candidate, to which he replied ''count me out''. I guess a change of mind is allowed on the one, if not the other, but ''people in the country'' are entitled to form a view of the perpetrator that may not be favourable to that person.

 

[brad465]

The chief adviser in question originally started out as Michael Gove's SpAd at education, and was so vile Cameron ordered him to be sacked. Cameron described him as a "professional psychopath". But Cummings has remained allied to Gove.

As for replacements for Boris, if the best alternative is Rishi Sunak then, quite frankly, I'm glad I don't live in the UK!

We all know it'd be Michael Gove though, the man to leave you dreaming about the beautiful days when Theresa May was the worst PM in living memory. It'll be such a Michael Gove thing to do.

Michael Gove has always come across as quite sensible and not pandering to the hysteria all throughout this.

Gove is one of the worst people I’d like to see replacing Johnson. I’d rather have someone who listens to experts rather than being someone who has ‘had enough of experts’. He has also said that ‘the day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want’. I do not trust the man at all, but I don’t think I trust the majority of them. His reputation with education isn’t exactly great either.

Gove is the one I fear the most for succeeding Johnson, because of his longstanding relationship with Cummings and the latter's desires to do a lot of dirty work with data. Those two together can do a lot of damage I reckon, especially to democratic principles, like they've already been doing to the Civil Service/Cabinet Office in a way.

Johnson does need to go, but what I hate is how some politicians can leave office without being accountable to their failings. If he resigns just after the Transition Period ends and it's all chaos in 2021, he will have done a "David Cameron", that is, create a load of mess, and selfishly run away to make others have to clean it up.

 

[Starmill]

I find the discussion about Sunak a little strange. Sunak owes everything he has to Johnson, surely no plotting is even vaguely possible? If Cummings thought Sunak were a threat to Johnson, he would simply have him sacked and replaced with Barclay. I can hear the objections being raised already around Sunak's stratospheric popularity - but given how unpopular the Prime Minister himself is I can't see how it matters. The Parliamentary Conservative Party is as yet still loyal to Johnson, not Sunak. This of course is all up for change once the Transition Period is done. I don't think anything is likely to change between now and then.

The field of Conservative MPs with skills in leadership and proven experience of government is extremely thin (Sunak I would argue is very weak on both, his strengths all lie in communication). Jeremy Hunt is the sole candidate, I think. I would rate any leadership contest at Spring 2021 at the earliest, and I would expect Hunt to run.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Aug 2020 ==

Johnson does need to go, but what I hate is how some politicians can leave office without being accountable to their failings. If he resigns just after the Transition Period ends and it's all chaos in 2021, he will have done a "David Cameron", that is, create a load of mess, and selfishly run away to make others have to clean it up.

I am confident that this is what Johnson will do to us.

 

[Bevan Price]

Gove is the one I fear the most for succeeding Johnson, because of his longstanding relationship with Cummings and the latter's desires to do a lot of dirty work with data. Those two together can do a lot of damage I reckon, especially to democratic principles, like they've already been doing to the Civil Service/Cabinet Office in a way.

Johnson does need to go, but what I hate is how some politicians can leave office without being accountable to their failings. If he resigns just after the Transition Period ends and it's all chaos in 2021, he will have done a "David Cameron", that is, create a load of mess, and selfishly run away to make others have to clean it up.

The senior civil service certainly needs a big skake-up -- it has messed up a lot of things (consider just a few : - NHS IT systems, over-running, over-priced defence contracts, DfT, etc.) - but I am not sure I would trust Cummings & co. to make the right changes.

 

[C J Snarzell]

If Boris Johnson does decide to throw the towel in - he would ride out the storm until the next election at least.

Given that he was really ill at the end of March and he has a young partner & a baby who he would want to devote more time to, I would be very surprised if he stands at another election.

My guess is that once the Covid smoke has finally cleared and the state of the economy has been fully established - there may be calls to bring an election forward, maybe 2023. Like Churchill - BJ might be able to navigate the country through some of it's darkest times, but like Churchill he might not be able to rebuild the devastation left afterwards.

As a prospective Tory leader - I would edge my bets at Rishi Sunak. Given the huge impact 'Black Lives Matters' has had on the UK, it would perhaps be seen as a token gesture to elect an Asian leader, but I do think maybe the UK perhaps does need a non-white candidate to lead the country. For me, there are too many people who continue to enjoy shouting 'racism' from the rooftops feeling that people from minorities are under valued and misrepresented - someone like Sunak would ruffle a few feathers and provide a calming influence.

Also, Sunak seems very plugged into the financial crisis the UK is under. As I've said - Sunak has a better grasp of the economy and the direction needed throughout the next decade. The financial impact caused by Covid is going to be much more of an issue once the virus itself has gone and this will be at the top of the agenda until at least the 2030s.

Pitri Patel wouldn't be a good PM - she is probably the best Home Secretary we've had since David Blunkett but I don't think her ideas and style would be the right fit as the Country's leader. Michael Gove would be my next choice after Sunak, but I have reservations that his style of leadership would be 'do as I say but not as I do'.

Kier Starmer does seem to be a promising opposition leader than his predecessor, but I do think Labour still has a lot of bridges to build since the mess they left the country in during the Blair/Brown years.

CJ

 

[brad465]

I am confident that this is what Johnson will do to us.

Yes as do I, the only real accountability Cameron has had to put up with (if he even noticed this) is a TV rant by Danny Dyer in which he called him a certain word beginning with T live after the watershed, in response to him running away.

The senior civil service certainly needs a big skake-up -- it has messed up a lot of things (consider just a few : - NHS IT systems, over-running, over-priced defence contracts, DfT, etc.) - but I am not sure I would trust Cummings & co. to make the right changes.

I do agree with this fully, yes they need reform, but Cummings is the last person who should be doing it if it's to be reformed properly. They certainly shouldn't be making political appointments, as seems to be the case with David Frost at least.

 

[SuspectUsual]

I find the discussion about Sunak a little strange. Sunak owes everything he has to Johnson, surely no plotting is even vaguely possible?

Remember that pretty much every MP, for every party, has got there by being massively ambitious and absolutely ruthless. Without that, they’d never get a nomination. And leopards don’t change their spots.

 

[Starmill]

Remember that pretty much every MP, for every party, has got there by being massively ambitious and absolutely ruthless. Without that, they’d never get a nomination. And leopards don’t change their spots.

This is precisely the point I sought to make. Sunak has no independence from Cummings and serves only as long as the Prime Minister is satisfied with him. He still knows he could be sacked as easily as his predecessor. He therefore cannot canvas for support in the Parliamentary party. It doesn't appear to be his strategy anyway though, he's playing a longer game.

 

[DB]

If Boris Johnson does decide to throw the towel in - he would ride out the storm until the next election at least.

Given that he was really ill at the end of March and he has a young partner & a baby who he would want to devote more time to, I would be very surprised if he stands at another election.

My guess is that once the Covid smoke has finally cleared and the state of the economy has been fully established - there may be calls to bring an election forward, maybe 2023. Like Churchill - BJ might be able to navigate the country through some of it's darkest times, but like Churchill he might not be able to rebuild the devastation left afterwards.

As a prospective Tory leader - I would edge my bets at Rishi Sunak. Given the huge impact 'Black Lives Matters' has had on the UK, it would perhaps be seen as a token gesture to elect an Asian leader, but I do think maybe the UK perhaps does need a non-white candidate to lead the country. For me, there are too many people who continue to enjoy shouting 'racism' from the rooftops feeling that people from minorities are under valued and misrepresented - someone like Sunak would ruffle a few feathers and provide a calming influence.

Also, Sunak seems very plugged into the financial crisis the UK is under. As I've said - Sunak has a better grasp of the economy and the direction needed throughout the next decade. The financial impact caused by Covid is going to be much more of an issue once the virus itself has gone and this will be at the top of the agenda until at least the 2030s.

Pitri Patel wouldn't be a good PM - she is probably the best Home Secretary we've had since David Blunkett but I don't think her ideas and style would be the right fit as the Country's leader. Michael Gove would be my next choice after Sunak, but I have reservations that his style of leadership would be 'do as I say but not as I do'.

Kier Starmer does seem to be a promising opposition leader than his predecessor, but I do think Labour still has a lot of bridges to build since the mess they left the country in during the Blair/Brown years.

CJ

I'm no fan of Blair but what 'mess' are you referring to? The worldwide recession? Which Brown actually handled quite well, and things were beginning to improve, then Osborne's austerity measures put paid to that.

While they should have regulated the banks more the Tories wanted even less regulation.