can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[yorksrob]

By those numbers if you commute by train for a year you have about a 4% chance of getting covid.

Do you know if those numbers are with or without mitigation/distancing measures? Do you know what level of covid prevalence in the population they assume?

It didn't go into much detail, but it suggested 44 people in a carriage travelling over an hour (with half of those changing half way through). They said without mitigating measures as well.

 

[Butts]

Is that Easyjet on the brum route? How busy is it?

On the two I've done both Saturdays - 2/3 Full I'd say - not been "piggy in the middle" on either.

 

[bramling]

I was listening to Radio 4 this morning, and there was a lot of discussion around the future of cities and businesses therein as a result of this crisis.

It became clear in the interviews with leading business people how much the narrative of public transport being uniquely dangerous, has become embedded in peoples consciousness. There was a sort of feeling that while people were feeling safe in shops and restaurants etc, "the trip in on public transport" was being seen as the big stumbling block.

The industry really does need to start blowing its own trumpet that rail travel isn't anywhere near as dangerous as people seem to think it is.

What gets me with the above is the notion that public transport is so terribly dangerous, yet restaurants seemingly aren’t.

Am I being over cynical in thinking how convenient it is that the trip in is suddenly so terribly dangerous that people can’t do it?

Let’s face it, few want to get up and get the train to work, whilst dining in a restaurant is rather more appealing.

 

[Meerkat]

What gets me with the above is the notion that public transport is so terribly dangerous, yet restaurants seemingly aren’t.

Restaurants can control numbers and method of access and they can fix spacing. They also have contact details for track and trace.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Restaurants can control numbers and method of access and they can fix spacing. They also have contact details for track and trace.

Public transport, at least intercity public transport, can also do all of those things. They are doing to some extent, but they could if it was felt worthwhile operate fully airline style operations and then they would have all of it.

There are good reasons why not (debate on the compulsory reservations thread) but to say that restaurants can do it and public transport can't is pushing it.

 

[yorkie]

Not quite, on regional trains you are only supposed to sit diagonally opposite someone so only two occupants in a bay of 4 meaning areas around doors are quite crowded.

Is that documented anywhere? We were travelling in Switzerland with a forum member who works for SSB and I'm sure he would have told us!

The UK has it all wrong; we are very anti-public transport in this country (compared with places like Switzerland); we are also applying ludicrously OTT mitigations against the virus (such as, in some cases, OTT social distancing and masks!); the rail industry is treating passengers badly as usual (trains depart early, trains deleted without trace, refusal to adhere to agreed ticket acceptance, threatening announcements, passengers shouted at etc).

Let's face it: most people are going to be massively put off by rail and only those who either really enjoy travelling by train (to the extent that they will put up with being mistreated and still return to rail) and/or people who have no other option.

This is making the recovery particularly difficult as it means certain trains have far too much demand for the supposed capacity, while the majority of capacity is totally and utterly wasted, particularly on longer distance routes.

There is very little attempt by train companies to encourage people back to rail (LNER are among the best in doing this, yet still have their own faults), the unions don't want people to return, the Government doesn't seem to want it (and in future won't be happy to pay high subsidies)

It's difficult not to feel angry and upset by what is happening.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is very little attempt by train companies to encourage people back to rail (LNER are among the best in doing this, yet still have their own faults), the unions don't want people to return, the Government doesn't seem to want it (and in future won't be happy to pay high subsidies)

Dare I say it seems an ideal time to take on the unions over inconvenient things where they are being a bit awkward - you wouldn't knacker the economy if you had weeks of strikes like you would before.

 

[yorkie]

Dare I say it seems an ideal time to take on the unions over inconvenient things where they are being a bit awkward - you wouldn't knacker the economy if you had weeks of strikes like you would before.

I don't think it would achieve much and given the Government isn't in a position to do that, given the communications they are issuing regarding social distancing. It would go against their own messaging.

So I see no end in sight to this madness.

 

[Meerkat]

I don't think it would achieve much and given the Government isn't in a position to do that, given the communications they are issuing regarding social distancing. It would go against their own messaging.

So I see no end in sight to this madness.

But the government want to end it (so they stop paying so much for rail). They get the scientists to say its safe and then challenge the unions. They are already effectively doing that to the teachers.
And of course...‘we’ll if the guards don’t want to go near the passengers.......’

 

[yorkie]

But the government want to end it (so they stop paying so much for rail). They get the scientists to say its safe and then challenge the unions. They are already effectively doing that to the teachers.
And of course...‘we’ll if the guards don’t want to go near the passengers.......’

If only that was true!

I suggest you take a look at the 'How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?' thread...

 

[Meerkat]

If only that was true!

I suggest you take a look at the 'How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?' thread...

I have been trying to stay out of those threads as they tend to be as poisonous as Brexit!
But we can’t have it both ways - the evil Treasury can’t be too tight to ever finance Rail properly, and happy to keep throwing billions at running half empty trains. They got the pubs open, and that isn’t something the pure science would like, the Treasury will be heavily pushing to get the railways full.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I have been trying to stay out of those threads as they tend to be as poisonous as Brexit!
But we can’t have it both ways - the evil Treasury can’t be too tight to ever finance Rail properly, and happy to keep throwing billions at running half empty trains. They got the pubs open, and that isn’t something the pure science would like, the Treasury will be heavily pushing to get the railways full.

Well, they sort of could - another Beeching or Serpell. There are certainly anti-rail elements who would want that.

 

[Meerkat]

Well, they sort of could - another Beeching or Serpell. There are certainly anti-rail elements who would want that.

It’s just too politically poisonous - its barely possible to close a platform in the middle of nowhere!
The only option is service cuts, reduced maintenance, and cancelled upgrades. Can they even increase fares these days?
They could save some money if there was a massive national strike though.....

 

[bramling]

Restaurants can control numbers and method of access and they can fix spacing. They also have contact details for track and trace.

Track and trace doesn’t stop you getting Covid, so that doesn’t really wash with the “too scared to go to work but happy to dine out” brigade.

As for restaurants being controlled, all I can say is driving home during the “taxpayer spends many millions subsidising other people’s meal treat” days, I haven’t seen much evidence of distancing in the places I’ve driven past!

 

[westv]

What gets me with the above is the notion that public transport is so terribly dangerous, yet restaurants seemingly aren’t.

Am I being over cynical in thinking how convenient it is that the trip in is suddenly so terribly dangerous that people can’t do it?

Let’s face it, few want to get up and get the train to work, whilst dining in a restaurant is rather more appealing.

If people are working successfully from home why would they not want to make it last as long as possible?

 

[Butts]

Is the Elephant in the Room still Par Avion ?

What do the Rail Unions feel about Aircraft operating at full capacity whilst they sanction guards hiding in their cabs ?

 

[bramling]

If people are working successfully from home why would they not want to make it last as long as possible?

Depends how one defines successful.

If success is measured by not having to get up and go to work then yes one can quite easily see how this might be a good thing.

If, on the other hand, success is sitting at home doing the elements of work which can easily be done there, not doing things which can’t (for example if they require specialist equipment), and expecting these other elements of work to be quietly forgotten, then is it quite so successful? Certainly at my place we’re seeing a lot of this from the support functions.

 

[westv]

Depends how one defines successful.

If success is measured by not having to get up and go to work then yes one can quite easily see how this might be a good thing.

If, on the other hand, success is sitting at home doing the elements of work which can easily be done there, not doing things which can’t (for example if they require specialist equipment), and expecting these other elements of work to be quietly forgotten, then is it quite so successful? Certainly at my place we’re seeing a lot of this from the support functions.

"Successful" is defined exactly as it was meant to be defined in the context of the sentence.

I sense a small hint of jealousy in your answers.

 

[ChrisC]

What gets me with the above is the notion that public transport is so terribly dangerous, yet restaurants seemingly aren’t.

There are so many inconsistencies similar to this.
Why is attending the village church so much more dangerous than the village pub?
I can spend the whole of Saturday evening in the village pub without wearing a mask and yet on the following morning just for 45 minutes in church I have to wear a mask. Even with what remaining social distancing is still in place the pub has far more people squashed into a small enclosed space than about 20 people very well spaced out in a large ancient church.

Right from the beginning we were told not to travel on public transport and I think subconsciously many people still feel it is dangerous. I have been in a restaurant on a couple of occasions during this last month, I have stayed for a week in a hotel, but I haven’t travelled on a bus or a train for almost 6 months.

Since taking early retirement 6 years ago I have taken regular holidays in this country mostly using public transport both to travel to my destination and days out whilst there. A few weeks ago I had a holiday in North Yorkshire but used my car and I am doing the same thing next month in County Durham. I really must get back to using trains and buses but I have to admit that I quite enjoyed using my car. There is not much incentive to go back to using the train when the service from my local station has been halved in frequency until at least December resulting in poor onward connections and journey times extended by at least 1 hour.

 

[bramling]

"Successful" is defined exactly as it was meant to be defined in the context of the sentence.

I sense a small hint of jealousy in your answers.

Not at all, I wouldn't want to be at home, as I value the social contact that work brings, and have seen the effects on other people that not having this contact can bring (and I say that as someone who *isn't* really a people person!). In fact if people wish to genuinely work at home then in theory it benefits me as it means my journey to work is less crowded / congested.

What I'm less keen on is the notion that all this home working is fine and dandy. It isn't. We're having a lot of issues where people working at home simply aren't performing the full range of work that they would normally be doing, which is causing some issues. We've also had examples where people have contacted staff who are meant to be working at home, and they were clearly neither working nor at home!

 

[Richard Scott]

I didn't see any signs to that effect and I saw plenty bays of four fully occupied!

Perhaps it's changed recently because it's been like that all of this week.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Aug 2020 ==

Is that documented anywhere? We were travelling in Switzerland with a forum member who works for SSB and I'm sure he would have told us.

Was on a notice on the trains with about 6 dos/don'ts in relation to the virus. People seemed to be adhering to it too.

 

[philosopher]

If people are working successfully from home why would they not want to make it last as long as possible?

This is why, for the moment public transport operators should focus on getting the leisure market back.

 

[DorkingMain]

My views on coronavirus scaremongering are well-documented elsewhere but...

I don't believe this government gives a toss about the rail industry or anyone working for it. If they could reasonably do so, I'm sure they'd happily tell everyone to work from home permanently or use a car.

However there's two undeniable factors at play:

a) Railways are nearly always a huge driver of economic activity. People will still rather take an hourly train service to somewhere than the bus that runs every 15 mins. Even extremely conservative estimates of cost-benefit tend to put railways in the black. If there is an economic slump, railways are definitely one of the best ways to pull out of it.

b) Commuters (particularly in the south-east) tend to be very wealthy, and bring a level of economic activity of their own. A lot of major railway hubs have built up their whole economy around commuters with fat wallets wandering through every day and buying things. The government doesn't want to lose that (hence the push to get people commuting again)

From the perspective of the railways, reduced passenger numbers on peak services would be a huge improvement. Nobody wants to pay £100s to go on a crush loaded train. However it will mean that railways will often need subsidy, and our country's current way of thinking is purely through the lens of "first party profit"

 

[bramling]

This is why, for the moment public transport operators should focus on getting the leisure market back.

I think a significant amount of the leisure market *is* back.

It’s the commuter peaks that are missing. For example - Northern Line southwards from Stockwell at 1800 on a weekday, normally crush loaded, now perhaps 5-10 people per carriage.

 

[packermac]

Depends how one defines successful.

If success is measured by not having to get up and go to work then yes one can quite easily see how this might be a good thing.

If, on the other hand, success is sitting at home doing the elements of work which can easily be done there, not doing things which can’t (for example if they require specialist equipment), and expecting these other elements of work to be quietly forgotten, then is it quite so successful? Certainly at my place we’re seeing a lot of this from the support functions.

Well if you take the BBC report today of the top 50 companies most have no intention of getting a workforce back anytime soon, which of course impacts on commuting. Apparently 50% said they had no intended date for staff to return.
Some of that will be a combination of factors, none of which have anything to do with people being too scared to travel.

Business may be down so less activity
Staff getting Covid could lead to claims under lack of duty of care
Whilst it is still unclear of how risky offices are a report today shown on the BBC may worry employers. The risks form offices listed I think would mean that with the exception of maybe 18 months any of the office I worked in during my 41 years of employment would be classed as potential risk for spread due to the air conditioning ( or lack of).
If staff are productive working from home, long term there could be big savings in not having to own or rent so much real estate.
I do suspect the knock effect of the pandemic will be a total shift in what is the "work normal" at least for office based roles.

All leads to the question of course are we running too many trains for the people travelling going forward?

 

[Bletchleyite]

All leads to the question of course are we running too many trains for the people travelling going forward?

For commuters, almost certainly, particularly around London. Most of the rest of the UK has a Saturday timetable very similar to or the same as a weekday one. I think we will see the same on London commuter routes too.

 

[philosopher]

From the perspective of the railways, reduced passenger numbers on peak services would be a huge improvement. Nobody wants to pay £100s to go on a crush loaded train. However it will mean that railways will often need subsidy, and our country's current way of thinking is purely through the lens of "first party profit"

I sometimes used to commute from Earlsfield to Waterloo, though I more frequently used the tube. In the morning, particularly before the SWR trains were lengthened to 10 carriages, they were normally crush loaded and as a result very uncomfortable. Lengthy dwell times due to the overcrowding meant the trains were hardly ever on time. Clearly no one wants to go back to that. However running peak time trains where only half the seats are taken clearly is not sustainable either.

If using that line as an example, peak time flows can recover to the point where all the seats are taken and a few people, mainly from Wimbledon, Earlsfield and Clapham Junction are standing, I think that would be ideal. The commute would become a lot tolerable and train reliability would improve.

 

[squizzler]

I can confirm that my ongoing observations of the bus situation in Jersey continue to suggest that the future for transport operators remains bright. I consider Jersey to be an indicator of where the mainland UK can expect to be in a few months, or sooner if your politicians get a grip. The signs are that when that happy day comes, the public will take to their transport networks again, masks or not.

Busses are generally at their usual loadings during the day - admittedly usual for winter rather than high holiday season loadings, and that the commuter ridership peaks have been flattened.

The operator communication has been very good. There is a blog whose posts expand on operator policies and- just as importantly - the reasons behind them. There has been a post on the challenges of ramping up the service after lockdown. Another says what to expect for the new timetable which they expect to see us through the winter and whose peak service is now reduced. Whilst not mentioned in said post, ditching peak hour provision can only benefit the operator since fewer drivers will be needed where transport worker wages will be higher than other places.The most recent post announces full capacity with the new timetable from September.

 

[Bikeman78]

I think a significant amount of the leisure market *is* back.

It’s the commuter peaks that are missing. For example - Northern Line southwards from Stockwell at 1800 on a weekday, normally crush loaded, now perhaps 5-10 people per carriage.

Totally agree. At 0800 the streets in Cardiff are very quiet. At 1300 the traffic is worse than ever, including the long queues for the city centre car parks. Meanwhile Cardiff Bus is still running a Sunday timetable on weekdays.

 

[Meole]

Totally agree. At 0800 the streets in Cardiff are very quiet. At 1300 the traffic is worse than ever, including the long queues for the city centre car parks. Meanwhile Cardiff Bus is still running a Sunday timetable on weekdays.

That part of the leisure market that relates to attending sports events, competing in running, going to concerts, has yet to return.