can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[big_rig]

At my place of work (it would not be hard to guess - the uniforms are typically orange and the organisation is responsible for just about everything which is bolted down on the railway) on a team of roughly a dozen people I am fairly sure I am the only person who has taken a train since March. Two people have bought cars who didn't have them before and none have expressed any willingness to take a train. If this is the approach amongst those for whom their salary depends on people and not fresh air being carted around the network I am not really sure where we go from here.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

At my place of work (it would not be hard to guess - the uniforms are typically orange and the organisation is responsible for just about everything which is bolted down on the railway) on a team of roughly a dozen people I am fairly sure I am the only person who has taken a train since March. Two people have bought cars who didn't have them before and none have expressed any willingness to take a train. If this is the approach amongst those for whom their salary depends on people and not fresh air being carted around the network I am not really sure where we go from here.

Thats the same organisation that encouraged you to hire cars as it was cheaper than paying for train fares or even more perversely promoted fare splitting if you did need a ticket!

 

[WatcherZero]

What's your source for this (not doubting it - just interested to see the full details)?

The story is here:

Coronavirus: Just one in six back in the office in cities as Boris Johnson's 'return to work' plea ignored

Figures compiled for Sky News show worker footfall in cities was just 17% of pre-lockdown levels in the first two weeks of August.

news.sky.com

Latest live data is here:

High streets recovery tracker - Centre for Cities

Explore the changing levels of activity within the high streets of Britain's cities and large towns from February 2020 to May 2022.

www.centreforcities.org

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The story is here:

Coronavirus: Just one in six back in the office in cities as Boris Johnson's 'return to work' plea ignored

Figures compiled for Sky News show worker footfall in cities was just 17% of pre-lockdown levels in the first two weeks of August.

news.sky.com

Latest live data is here:

High streets recovery tracker - Centre for Cities

Explore the changing levels of activity within the high streets of Britain's cities and large towns from February 2020 to May 2022.

www.centreforcities.org

Crikey the 'Centre for Cities' data lays bare the challenges faced on commuter routes into our cities although my trips out this week show off peak usage is reasonable compared to so called rush trains

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I believe it's called Carlisle Holdings PLC (whoever they are).

You heard right, but it's a different company with a different spelling - it's Carlyle Group, a private equity firm. They've been named and shamed on Twitter today.

 

[yorksrob]

You heard right, but it's a different company with a different spelling - it's Carlyle Group, a private equity firm. They've been named and shamed on Twitter today.

Ah, cheers for the confirmation.

Travelling around up North, people seem to be using trains as normal. Perhaps the fear of public transport is greater down south.

 

[johnnychips]

Two days ago I got a bus from Portishead to Bristol at about 0830, which I would expect to be normally packed: about eight on it. Today I got the first one after 0930, which I would have expected to be full of pensioners (though I must say I’m not sure if they have waived the rules) and there were ten people on it.
To be fair, I have never seen Bristol’s roads so relatively quiet, so perhaps a lot of people are working from home.

 

[dctraindriver]

I worked a 12 car to Waterloo yesterday and I was surprised by how many people got off the train. The platform was busy. I can’t hazard a guess to numbers but it was good to see so many passengers. This was about 11AM.

 

[yorksrob]

I've just read in Rail magazine that the RSSB estimate the risk of infection per passenger journey as being 1 in 11,000 journeys.

Obviously there are assumptions - 44 passengers in an Azuma carriage for 30 mins with 22 being replaced and then all travelling for a further 30 mins (interestingly not including mitigating factors such as facemasks). I like those odds.

Also DB are saying that not a single transmission has been identified as occurring on a train.

I believe I said at the start of this crisis that I thought the idea of overland trains being a huge vector of COVID sounded like balderdash. It seems that I'm being proved right !

 

[317 forever]

Currently on my first train journey for over 5 months. On a XC Voyager, in this carriage there are at least 100 signs telling me to stay apart from other people (one sign on the back of each seat, one above each pair of seats and several others dotted around). The catering manager has just separated a couple who committed the crime of sitting together - apparently sitting in aisle seats is forbidden (the guard also just announced this). Five minutes in I can already see that this level of restriction and legislation is unsustainable! On the plus side because no one can sit next to me I have plenty of legroom by sitting sideways!

Next thing they will double the fares as we will be alleged to be occupying 2 seats each

 

[Jozhua]

I've noticed a steady increase in ridership, especially since I made my first trips by train post lockdown a couple of months ago.

The buses are beginning to fill up again and train services are getting closer to the typical off peak levels I'm used to.

People are getting out and about again, even in areas with extra restrictions. People have lives to live and are willing to tolerate some risk vs being locked up at home. Face covering compliance is reasonable, staying more consistent than in the shops, which is good.

Best we can do is expand hand washing facilities, keep up with the face coverings, open (windows on vehicles that have it) for better ventilation and increase testing, using pooled samples. Other than that, people are back out livin as they do, public transport making an important part of that.

 

[yorksrob]

I was listening to Radio 4 this morning, and there was a lot of discussion around the future of cities and businesses therein as a result of this crisis.

It became clear in the interviews with leading business people how much the narrative of public transport being uniquely dangerous, has become embedded in peoples consciousness. There was a sort of feeling that while people were feeling safe in shops and restaurants etc, "the trip in on public transport" was being seen as the big stumbling block.

The industry really does need to start blowing its own trumpet that rail travel isn't anywhere near as dangerous as people seem to think it is.

 

[Mag_seven]

I was listening to Radio 4 this morning, and there was a lot of discussion around the future of cities and businesses therein as a result of this crisis.

It became clear in the interviews with leading business people how much the narrative of public transport being uniquely dangerous, has become embedded in peoples consciousness. There was a sort of feeling that while people were feeling safe in shops and restaurants etc, "the trip in on public transport" was being seen as the big stumbling block.

The industry really does need to start blowing its own trumpet that rail travel isn't anywhere near as dangerous as people seem to think it is.

Indeed - if the UK rail industry doesn't start upping its game soon then the only thing I can see is service cuts and job losses. Why are we as a nation so frightened to travel on public transport? On recent trips I have made to both Germany and Switzerland I have seen public transport use in those countries back to normal (albeit with face covering wearing)

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed - if the UK rail industry doesn't start upping its game soon then the only thing I can see is service cuts and job losses. Why are we as a nation so frightened to travel on public transport? On recent trips I have made to both Germany and Switzerland I have seen public transport use in those countries back to normal (albeit with face covering wearing)

I daresay it goes back to the more sensible messaging in the earlier stages of opening up in those countries, in which public transport was considered alongside other modes as part of the overall transport package (with some extra precautions), as opposed to the more strident and extreme messaging over here not to use it full stop.

 

[talldave]

Indeed - if the UK rail industry doesn't start upping its game soon then the only thing I can see is service cuts and job losses. Why are we as a nation so frightened to travel on public transport? On recent trips I have made to both Germany and Switzerland I have seen public transport use in those countries back to normal (albeit with face covering wearing)

Ludicrous quantities of "Essential journeys only" messaging.
Face masks.

 

[PTR 444]

I was listening to Radio 4 this morning, and there was a lot of discussion around the future of cities and businesses therein as a result of this crisis.

It became clear in the interviews with leading business people how much the narrative of public transport being uniquely dangerous, has become embedded in peoples consciousness. There was a sort of feeling that while people were feeling safe in shops and restaurants etc, "the trip in on public transport" was being seen as the big stumbling block.

The industry really does need to start blowing its own trumpet that rail travel isn't anywhere near as dangerous as people seem to think it is.

I saw a similar article in The Guardian yesterday. It's just shocking to even think that the atmosphere of city centres will die and become glorified suburbs if commuting keeps trending downward in the long term. The government just need to start a national campaign to get people back on trains, and reinforce that it is good for the environment while keeping businesses alive.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I saw a similar article in The Guardian yesterday. It's just shocking to even think that the atmosphere of city centres will die and become glorified suburbs if commuting keeps trending downward in the long term.

What's wrong with city centres being places of relatively high density living alongside entertainment, places to meet and specialist retail? It sounds pretty good to me. The daily commuting grind just isn't good for anyone.

As for chain stores and poor quality chain restaurants, good riddance, they're rubbish and a short blip on history, being big for maybe 40 years or so. Supermarkets were already making inroads into killing them off.

 

[birchesgreen]

Yeah if the end to mass commuting means the outlying areas around the city centres arn't drained of money and life anymore then that will be a great thing to be honest.

 

[Richard Scott]

Indeed - if the UK rail industry doesn't start upping its game soon then the only thing I can see is service cuts and job losses. Why are we as a nation so frightened to travel on public transport? On recent trips I have made to both Germany and Switzerland I have seen public transport use in those countries back to normal (albeit with face covering wearing)

Not quite, on regional trains you are only supposed to sit diagonally opposite someone so only two occupants in a bay of 4 meaning areas around doors are quite crowded.

 

[Mag_seven]

Not quite, on regional trains you are only supposed to sit diagonally opposite someone so only two occupants in a bay of 4 meaning areas around doors are quite crowded.

I didn't see any signs to that effect and I saw plenty bays of four fully occupied!

 

[westv]

I didn't see any signs to that effect and I saw plenty bays of four fully occupied!

They knew each other??

 

[Jamesrob637]

They knew each other??

Not necessarily. In most European countries, adjacent seats may be occupied as long as masks are worn.

 

[Butts]

People like me are quite happy to jump on a plane to go between Edinburgh and Birmingham what is the perceived difference with a train ?

You even get a refreshment trolley and no social distancing !!!

It it wasn't for the masks it's virtually back to normal.

 

[Bletchleyite]

People like me are quite happy to jump on a plane to go between Edinburgh and Birmingham what is the perceived difference with a train ?

You even get a refreshment trolley and no social distancing !!!

It it wasn't for the masks it's virtually back to normal.

Aircraft can be configured to change the air far more frequently than a train so may be lower risk, potentially? But otherwise, indeed not much. Might as well follow what other countries are doing - masks required (unless exempt) but all seats occupied, even if we don't allow standees.

To be fair on the non-IC TOCs that's already the case, particularly the DOO ones where there is nobody there to say anything about where you sit.

 

[yorksrob]

People like me are quite happy to jump on a plane to go between Edinburgh and Birmingham what is the perceived difference with a train ?

You even get a refreshment trolley and no social distancing !!!

It it wasn't for the masks it's virtually back to normal.

I got a refreshment trolley on TPE yesterday !

 

[PHILIPE]

Delete Post as I have moved it to another thread of Full Timetable predictions

 

[squizzler]

Aircraft can be configured to change the air far more frequently than a train so may be lower risk, potentially?

Surely you mean trains have better ventilation, given that modern trains are designed to cope with crush loading, a condition forbidden by most plane operators?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Aug 2020 ==

What's wrong with city centres being places of relatively high density living alongside entertainment, places to meet and specialist retail? It sounds pretty good to me. The daily commuting grind just isn't good for anyone.

That would seem to benefit rail operators, since the people now living in city centres will presumably have work to go to. If a given commuter route that used to have everyone come into the city in the morning and go home in the evening went to a situation where half the people are commuting from the centre to the suburbs and the other half still commute from the suburbs to centre, this operator would double their staff and asset productivity by filling the trains heading in both directions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That would seem to benefit rail operators, since the people now living in city centres will presumably have work to go to. If a given commuter route that used to have everyone come into the city in the morning and go home in the evening went to a situation where half the people are commuting from the centre to the suburbs and the other half still commute from the suburbs to centre, this operator would double their staff and asset productivity by filling the trains heading in both directions.

Potentially so. Paradoxically, a reduction in commuters (provided it isn't to zero) and a balancing of flows is a good thing for train operators, not a bad thing. Large commuter flows are very expensive to provide for, and season ticket holders pay typically little more (often less) than off peak returns.

 

[route101]

People like me are quite happy to jump on a plane to go between Edinburgh and Birmingham what is the perceived difference with a train ?

You even get a refreshment trolley and no social distancing !!!

It it wasn't for the masks it's virtually back to normal.

Is that Easyjet on the brum route? How busy is it?

 

[plugwash]

I've just read in Rail magazine that the RSSB estimate the risk of infection per passenger journey as being 1 in 11,000 journeys.

By those numbers if you commute by train for a year you have about a 4% chance of getting covid.

Do you know if those numbers are with or without mitigation/distancing measures? Do you know what level of covid prevalence in the population they assume?