Treasury ‘losing patience with rail’

[Bletchleyite]

The problem is that you can possibly reduce some frequencies, but once you get beyond a point, the damage becomes self-fulfilling. One only has to look at the temporary timetable west of Skipton, with massive gaps when leisure travellers need them. If it lingers much longer, it will kill those routes.

Though that depends how you do it. The UK has typically run a high frequency but haphazard service where each direct services is considered entirely on its own and coordination is only done for the purposes of ensuring that a given train doesn't end up needing the same bit of track as another given train at the same time (but on that, see Castlefield).

DB, by contrast, has traditionally operated a lower frequency service with planned connections. So most regional services are hourly or two hourly im Takt, so if you make a journey involving a string of them they will usually connect fairly well, and so you don't get the impression of them being infrequent even if they are.

There is no reason, other than typical UK "not invented here", that we could not move to the latter, and have a lower frequency service that is much more usable (and punctual) overall than the one we presently have.

And no, that doesn't just relate to costs. If you got Castlefield down to 8tph per direction, you'd be able to set your watch by it, and the capacity could be provided by it all being run by 6 and 8-car CAF formations. It'd also save a ton of money compared with ripping up a couple of obscure Cornish branch lines or closing Berney Arms.

(I am conscious that a lot of money would be saved by not rebuilding the Conwy Valley every year or two, and that an hourly Trawscambria bus down the main road would probably be better value for similar money to a 3-hourly train service, but that really is an exception, most branch lines go years without any serious maintenance)

 

[birchesgreen]

What does a "dose of reality" mean?

I think they are saying people who work from home have become alcoholic sociopaths.

 

[yorksrob]

Though that depends how you do it. The UK has typically run a high frequency but haphazard service where each direct services is considered entirely on its own and coordination is only done for the purposes of ensuring that a given train doesn't end up needing the same bit of track as another given train at the same time (but on that, see Castlefield).

DB, by contrast, has traditionally operated a lower frequency service with planned connections. So most regional services are hourly or two hourly im Takt, so if you make a journey involving a string of them they will usually connect fairly well, and so you don't get the impression of them being infrequent even if they are.

There is no reason, other than typical UK "not invented here", that we could not move to the latter, and have a lower frequency service that is much more usable (and punctual) overall than the one we presently have.

And no, that doesn't just relate to costs. If you got Castlefield down to 8tph per direction, you'd be able to set your watch by it, and the capacity could be provided by it all being run by 6 and 8-car CAF formations. It'd also save a ton of money compared with ripping up a couple of obscure Cornish branch lines or closing Berney Arms.

(I am conscious that a lot of money would be saved by not rebuilding the Conwy Valley every year or two, and that an hourly Trawscambria bus down the main road would probably be better value for similar money to a 3-hourly train service, but that really is an exception, most branch lines go years without any serious maintenance)

I think there are probably areas where you could thin out services a little. On the Hallam line for example, we have a fast and a slow each hour at the moment, rather than the two normal fasts. This could probably continue for a bit, especially if numbers remain lower than usual. Similarly, there could possibly be consolidation North of York, as others have mentioned.

The key thing is that they shouldn't be thinning out services on routes that already have a sparse service, just because someone looks at a map and sees that they go through a rural area, yet this seems to be exactly what is proposed.

 

[daodao]

Don't forget Carlisle to Carstairs, that's pretty empty countryside too!

That is currently a key main line, but if Scotland becomes independent, it would certainly become vulnerable to closure, particularly if Scotland also rejoined the EU, because lengthy stringent border checks would be demanded by the EU gauleiters.

 

[squizzler]

I am inclined to believe that these briefings have more to do with encouraging consumers to stick with their cars for the time being. It's no secret the motor trade is in big trouble as there are less units being produced and sold, and the vast majority of cars are on lease schemes. With much less travel taking place now, the sense in continuing to lease a car that will sit idle even more of the time is reduced.

If the public start handing back their their car keys wholesale, this will result in a massive haircut for the car lease providers. I look forward to the situation when the holidays on MOT holidays lease subscriptions ends. Better, as far as the government is concerned, to cast aspersions on the main competitor.

As rail travel becomes increasingly attractive for the longer distance travel, local mayors' programme to convert carriageways into cycle routes and continued adoption of electric bikes and scooters will eat into the short journeys. It is hardly surprising the government feels the need to portray the humble motorcar as a credible form of mobility against these headwinds.

 

[37424]

Yes we really really *should* be encouraging a mass return to the workplace now.

I think the workplace gives some people a much-needed dose of reality into their lives. Too much longer of all this and we’re going to start seeing some major issues with many people. It’s already generally accepted that alcoholism has boomed during the last few months, and that’s before the mass job losses.

Over time I suspect we’re going to look back on this period as having been extremely damaging in a number of ways.

Like it or not there’s people who really simply can’t be bothered to return to work, and are doing everything possible to milk this for all they can. My place has two for a start.

Why some people have fully or partially worked from home for years, and I suspect many more could in fact I believe our take up of working from home has been below some other countries probably due to out dated attitudes. I remember going back about 9 years I could have easily worked from home a couple of days a week and saved a 60 mile round trip on the motorway but my boss didn't like people working from home. However if companies and staff have now seen the benefits then there is no reason to change that, and our Railways, Cities and society in general will have to adapt to the new ways of working.

 

[Richard Scott]

Though that depends how you do it. The UK has typically run a high frequency but haphazard service where each direct services is considered entirely on its own and coordination is only done for the purposes of ensuring that a given train doesn't end up needing the same bit of track as another given train at the same time (but on that, see Castlefield).

DB, by contrast, has traditionally operated a lower frequency service with planned connections. So most regional services are hourly or two hourly im Takt, so if you make a journey involving a string of them they will usually connect fairly well, and so you don't get the impression of them being infrequent even if they are.

There is no reason, other than typical UK "not invented here", that we could not move to the latter, and have a lower frequency service that is much more usable (and punctual) overall than the one we presently have.

You obviously don't use DB much and if you do, get lucky. The number of missed connections I've had due to late trains is unbelievable. I've been at stations where all long distance trains are late, even worse in summer as they have numerous problems with overhead wires. Certainly not what it was. Give me Britain's service any day.

 

[scrapy]

There are problems with rail when the following situation happens. Last Thursday I went to Scarborough. The train to Scarborough was well loaded, about three quarters full. But the majority of us had face coverings on, and there were no problems. The return journey was not good from Bridlington. As far as there the three car 170 was about, again, three quarters full, with one passenger in a wheelchair. On arriving into Bridlington, on the platform, was a large group of passengers. I estimated about one hundred.
Well, somehow, they all got on the already quite full 170. It was then time to depart, but nothing happened. I could see the driver, on the platform, along with the guard, who was on the phone. The guard, after about five minutes, got on the train, and announced that there was a problem with social distancing owing to the train being overcrowded. Then he said that he was in contact with Northern’s Control to see what decision could be made. About ten or so minutes then passed by.
Finally, the guard and driver got into their respective cabs and we departed Bridlington, some twenty minutes late.
The guard then announced that we were late because of the train being overcrowded, and people were not able to social distance - I was under the impression that’s what face coverings were for so people could use public transport in these circumstances.
Unfortunately the guard then went on to say that the rulings and laws were changing every day about the various measures, and so they had to get the advice from Control.

So, unfortunately, I cannot see passengers returning to the railway with these things going on. It was a very unfortunate event, and I think it’s typical of Northern as it is these days. It would be no use closing that line down, since it’s so popular, but more trains are needed to help out with the social distancing requirements if face coverings are not considered enough of a substitute for distancing.

Finally, I will not be put off. I will be travelling again. But I don’t know how many of those other passengers will be going by rail again. It was a very sad incident.

On a class 170 Northerns normal operating procedure is that the guard works the train from the saloon. If they are unable to do this due to crowding they can work from the cab but must get permission off the duty control manager first. Madness I know! But this probably explains the delay.

 

[RT4038]

I think there are probably areas where you could thin out services a little. On the Hallam line for example, we have a fast and a slow each hour at the moment, rather than the two normal fasts. This could probably continue for a bit, especially if numbers remain lower than usual. Similarly, there could possibly be consolidation North of York, as others have mentioned.

The key thing is that they shouldn't be thinning out services on routes that already have a sparse service, just because someone looks at a map and sees that they go through a rural area, yet this seems to be exactly what is proposed.

If revenue is running at about 10-12% of pre-COVID, as suggested in another thread, a 75% service reduction would not be unreasonable to attempt matching provision with demand, and still result in a hefty increase to the subsidy bill. In that scenario the Hallam line would be one train every two hours, although I doubt the cut would would be quite so 'across the board'. Looks like another major financial crunch moment for the railways, the scale of which was last seen in 1963.

Before you say that kind of frequencies would destroy many lines, I would contend that is a major danger stalking.

 

[matt_world2004]

I could see the treasury only funding 98%-99% of the railways operating costs through emergency measures and calling the bluff on the tocs knowing that would be unlikely to hand the keys back given that will cost more than they are losing continuing to run the railway

 

[yorksrob]

If revenue is running at about 10-12% of pre-COVID, as suggested in another thread, a 75% service reduction would not be unreasonable to attempt matching provision with demand, and still result in a hefty increase to the subsidy bill. In that scenario the Hallam line would be one train every two hours, although I doubt the cut would would be quite so 'across the board'. Looks like another major financial crunch moment for the railways, the scale of which was last seen in 1963.

Before you say that kind of frequencies would destroy many lines, I would contend that is a major danger stalking.

You'll have to explain what "a major stalking" is.

I can see that revenue might be thinner due to less business travel, but if we genuinely are at 30-35% rail usage I find it hard to believe that revenue is as low as 11-12%. Perhaps this figure is running behind the usage stats ?

 

[RT4038]

You'll have to explain what "a major stalking" is.

I can see that revenue might be thinner due to less business travel, but if we genuinely are at 30-35% rail usage I find it hard to believe that revenue is as low as 11-12%. Perhaps this figure is running behind the usage stats ?

I suspect that, apart from less or no business travel, longer distance travel is much reduced too, resulting in the average fare per passenger being lower.

The major danger stalking is that frequency cuts destroy the utility of services, which will eventually lead to their closure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I suspect that, apart from less or no business travel, longer distance travel is much reduced too, resulting in the average fare per passenger being lower.

I suspect so. But longer-term you might actually get people relocating out of London and travelling in once or twice a week, meaning they may well pay more high Anytime fares.

 

[RT4038]

I suspect so. But longer-term you might actually get people relocating out of London and travelling in once or twice a week, meaning they may well pay more high Anytime fares.

You may well be right, but they will require far less service to cater for them. The 88% loss of revenue will need a lot of those people to make up.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect that, apart from less or no business travel, longer distance travel is much reduced too, resulting in the average fare per passenger being lower.

The major danger stalking is that frequency cuts destroy the utility of services, which will eventually lead to their closure.

This is true.

Although that said, from what I've seen of IC services, they seem to be reasonably busy now.

 

[PR1Berske]

Just to show that history sometimes echoes, rather than repeats....

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/axe-to-fall-on-rail-network-5337088.html

Axe to fall on rail network
Dozens of lines may shut as ministers draw up action plan for closures. Document reveals scheme for cuts as Treasury pushes for massive cash savings

• By Christian Wolmar
• Sunday 29 January 2006 01:00

Ministers are preparing ways of closing or "mothballing" large sections of the railway network, according to an official document which was slipped out without publicity last week.

Dozens of branch lines and secondary routes could shut, in what would be the biggest rethink of the network since the Beeching report in the 1960s, which led to the closure of 4,000 miles of railway and nearly half the nation's stations. Loss-making services would be transferred on to buses, as a means of reducing the £6bn-a-year subsidy.


An army of consultants will decide whether lines should stay open or close. A law passed last year has reduced the right of passengers to object to closures.
The 83-page consultation paper uses a new kind of cost-benefit analysis, which, experts say, will highlight the economically fragile state of the network. Such analysis often penalises trains because it fails to take into account that they are environmentally friendly. As one senior rail industry figure put it last night: "The trouble with consultants is they will do exactly what ministers want them to do."

 

[yorksrob]

I wish that there was a link to this consultation.

Perhaps we need to hold demonstrations in London to get maximum publicity. A "save our railway" campaign if it comes to it.

 

[cav1975]

It seems that Network Rail are still trying to bankrupt the system. The London Paddington station facilities page from National Rail still states " Stay Home. Save Lives. "

London Paddington Station | National Rail

Discover London Paddington railway station. Getting to & from, buying & collecting train tickets, staffing, facilities, accessibility, & mobility access.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

Station Message:Alert!
Stay Home. Save Lives.
We are currently running a reduced timetable to ensure that vital train services for key workers can keep running throughout a prolonged coronavirus outbreak.

If you are travelling through this station, please be aware that some facilities on the station may not be available during the prolonged coronavirus outbreak. If you have any questions, please contact our team on 0345 711 4141.

 

[Ianno87]

It seems that Network Rail are still trying to bankrupt the system. The London Paddington station facilities page from National Rail still states " Stay Home. Save Lives. "

London Paddington Station | National Rail

Discover London Paddington railway station. Getting to & from, buying & collecting train tickets, staffing, facilities, accessibility, & mobility access.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

Station Message:Alert!
Stay Home. Save Lives.
We are currently running a reduced timetable to ensure that vital train services for key workers can keep running throughout a prolonged coronavirus outbreak.

If you are travelling through this station, please be aware that some facilities on the station may not be available during the prolonged coronavirus outbreak. If you have any questions, please contact our team on 0345 711 4141.

More likely somebody has forgotten to take the message down, rather than malice...

 

[43066]

It seems that Network Rail are still trying to bankrupt the system. The London Paddington station facilities page from National Rail still states " Stay Home. Save Lives. "

London Paddington Station | National Rail

Discover London Paddington railway station. Getting to & from, buying & collecting train tickets, staffing, facilities, accessibility, & mobility access.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

Station Message:Alert!
Stay Home. Save Lives.
We are currently running a reduced timetable to ensure that vital train services for key workers can keep running throughout a prolonged coronavirus outbreak.

If you are travelling through this station, please be aware that some facilities on the station may not be available during the prolonged coronavirus outbreak. If you have any questions, please contact our team on 0345 711 4141.

More likely somebody has forgotten to take the message down, rather than malice...

I find it absolutely maddening that this kind of wording is still out there when the railway *really* needs to be attracting people back. It feels like some elements of this industry have a death wish at times.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I wish that there was a link to this consultation.

Perhaps we need to hold demonstrations in London to get maximum publicity. A "save our railway" campaign if it comes to it.

That article is from 2006, just so you know

 

[yorksrob]

That article is from 2006, just so you know

So it is !

The perils of google I suppose.

Still, we need to be on our guard !

 

[Bletchleyite]

So it is !

The perils of google I suppose.

Still, we need to be on our guard !

Indeed. I read it and almost panicked before checking the date.

 

[PR1Berske]

So it is !

The perils of google I suppose.

Still, we need to be on our guard !

Yeah sorry, I thought I'd made it clear!

Back then there was similarly "in the know" stories about the DfT and Treasury looking at closing down lines. History doesn't always repeat... But it does echo...!

 

[richw]

Cornish branchlines mentioned in the article...

The ones so busy right now they need bus dupes? St Ives and Looe are both booked to have bus duplication until end of September!

 

[Islineclear3_1]

No. Everyone should have to pay more tax.

Why should I pay more?

I am already a higher-rate taxpayer and pay tax from 2 jobs. My tax outlay increased again last April meaning a further reduction in net income

I am fed up of ever-increasing tax rises!

 

[Meerkat]

Why should I pay more?

I am already a higher-rate taxpayer and pay tax from 2 jobs. My tax outlay increased again last April meaning a further reduction in net income

I am fed up of ever-increasing tax rises!

If you shouldn’t pay more what cuts do you propose?

 

[squizzler]

Is this extremely worrying or scaremongering ?

Just to show that history sometimes echoes, rather than repeats....

Both these articles sprung from the pen of Christian Wolmar.

Whilst invariably entertaining and often provocative, I seem to remember him being given the sobriquet 'Woe-mar' for his perennially downbeat scribblings in Rail.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

If you shouldn’t pay more what cuts do you propose?

Where did I mention cuts? Raising taxes is never going to be popular

If rail companies started to entice people to travel, then their revenue would start returning and Government wouldn't need to continue to fund them (with our tax money)

 

[py_megapixel]

Where did I mention cuts? Raising taxes is never going to be popular

Tell me how you are just going to magic some money out of thin air so that the government can pay for things without raising taxes?
The options are (a) raise taxes or (b) cut spending. There is no way around it.