What will procurement of WCML traction be like post HS2 opening?

[richieb1971]

Obviously we have Pendolinos now, but eventually they will retire just like everything else.

Assuming the timeframe of HS2 opening and the retirement of Pendolinos is somewhat coincidentally in the same year or thereabouts, what sort of traction would be suitable?

I mean, going even faster doesn't make much sense for much of the WCML network because its a very bendy track and never likely to get faster than 125mph, also HS2 speeds will be much faster anyway.

It will most definitely be AC traction and for me, I believe a successor to the 800-801 would likely be chosen along with nextgen EMUs for local stops.

Will tilt still be a thing?

 

[mememachine175]

I suspect tilt will remain a feature for the bulk of intercity stock on the WCML. Even if we consider the fact that modern trains accelerating quicker meaning that reaching 125mph matters less, you'd think they'd want to continue to cut journey times.

It's difficult to say I suspect with the direction the WCML is expected to head when HS2 opens (more high capacity trains stopping more frequently and serving more destinations) we'd see a rolling stock arrangement like GWR's. A lot of shorter trains that can be coupled together and split with a slightly smaller order of full length ones.

 

[London Trains]

Probably no different to what it will be in 3 or 4 years time.

Avanti running Pendolinos and a mix of bi-mode and electric IETs. LNWR running 350s and Class 730 Aventras. TPE running 397s.

 

[Purple Orange]

Probably no different to what it will be in 3 or 4 years time.

Avanti running Pendolinos and a mix of bi-mode and electric IETs. LNWR running 350s and Class 730 Aventras. TPE running 397s.

That makes no sense surely. Isn’t the point of HS2 phase 1 to relieve the south WCML, therefore enabling all services to run at a uniform speed? If so, given the DfT appear to control (or signicantly influence) procurement, why wouldn’t any new stock be any more than 110mph capable units? I’d expect 1/3 & 2/3 door units to be procured at least.

 

[rebmcr]

That makes no sense surely. Isn’t the point of HS2 phase 1 to relieve the south WCML, therefore enabling all services to run at a uniform speed? If so, given the DfT appear to control (or signicantly influence) procurement, why wouldn’t any new stock be any more than 110mph capable units? I’d expect 1/3 & 2/3 door units to be procured at least.

This is correct. Anything other than 110mph uniformity would blow the capacity benefits, and in turn hurt HS2's own BCR. There's even an outside chance that we see Class 390s running in 110mph paths (seeing their enhanced linespeed only when recovering from disruption).

 

[jopsuk]

I think the next gen will likely be 125mph to run as such on the northern sections, but optimised for acceleration to 110mph to run in 110 paths on the southern part of the route. It may even be that Birmingham services no longer share stock with longer distance services, going entirely to units similar to the "express" versions of Class 730

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

More pertinent questions are whether any significant route upgrades (realignments, bypasses) will have been authorised by then, whether it will be an ETCS railway, and whether we still have single class 66s grinding over the fells with heavy freight trains.
Will XC's Voyagers still be running Birmingham-Manchester?
Will Northern have any bi-modes for use on the WCML?
What will be the relationship between WCML/HS2 and ECML by then (in terms of sharing Scottish traffic).
How far will devolution have gone?
It's all rather speculative at the moment, given that the HS2 situation (construction and rolling stock) isn't certain yet.

 

[Energy]

I expect the Pendolinos to stay for quite a while longer. EMUs last a long time, the pendolino could be 45+ years old before it is retired, the bakerloo line stock is 48 years old and will be over 50 years old when it is finally retired.

 

[swt_passenger]

Hasn’t this already been decided? Avanti‘s additional WCML trains already on order are 125 mph and don’t tilt.

Given that Avanti are involved in the post HS2 service planning doesn’t that create a huge precedent?

IIRC in quite a few similar discussions the consensus has always been “No Tilt”.

In the OP, what are “nextgen EMUs“ supposed to be? Ie, nextgen compared to what? 730s?
IIRC it was a term used by someone to mean Thameslink 700s, but I don’t think it really caught on...

 

[supervc-10]

The problem with the term 'next generation' is that it only works for a short while
Like with the Boeing 737 'NG'- the new version is now called the 'MAX'.

HS2 phase 1 is basically London to Brum. I can see the southern section of the WCML becoming a 110mph railway whilst the high speed stuff is on HS2, with maybe some through services on 110mph pathed Pendos to maintain services north from places like Milton Keynes. I can also see cost cutting resulting in ETCS being fitted to the Pendos for operation all the way up north, with them operating at 140 on HS2 from London to Brum and then 125 north to Glasgow, rather than buying new stock.

 

[RailWonderer]

The problem with the term 'next generation' is that it only works for a short while
Like with the Boeing 737 'NG'- the new version is now called the 'MAX'.

HS2 phase 1 is basically London to Brum. I can see the southern section of the WCML becoming a 110mph railway whilst the high speed stuff is on HS2, with maybe some through services on 110mph pathed Pendos to maintain services north from places like Milton Keynes. I can also see cost cutting resulting in ETCS being fitted to the Pendos for operation all the way up north, with them operating at 140 on HS2 from London to Brum and then 125 north to Glasgow, rather than buying new stock.

There would be massive uproar at slowing down 125mph trains to 110, especially to encourage passengers to pay more for HS2 tickets. And what a waste of class 390 capabiity it would be.
Ideas like that are anti progressive.
I do think 390s could be allowed to run at 140mph unrestricted on HS2, it seems the most sensible thing to do than order a ton of classic compatible 186mph stock.

 

[swt_passenger]

There would be massive uproar at slowing down 125mph trains to 110, especially to encourage passengers to pay more for HS2 tickets. And what a waste of class 390 capabiity it would be.
Ideas like that are anti progressive.
I do think 390s could be allowed to run at 140mph unrestricted on HS2, it seems the most sensible thing to do than order a ton of classic compatible 186mph stock.

But the 125 mph WCML trains that don’t tilt are already ordered.
There won’t be any space for slow 390s on HS2.

 

[rebmcr]

There would be massive uproar at slowing down 125mph trains to 110, especially to encourage passengers to pay more for HS2 tickets. And what a waste of class 390 capabiity it would be.
Ideas like that are anti progressive.
I do think 390s could be allowed to run at 140mph unrestricted on HS2, it seems the most sensible thing to do than order a ton of classic compatible 186mph stock.

"More seats, more stops, more services" would be the marketing campaign that eliminates any 'massive uproar'. The general public don't care about railway nuance.

What's anti-progressive would be squandering brand-new HS2 capacity by trying to squeeze value out of 30-year-old trains that have more than paid for themselves by then.

 

[Meerkat]

More seats, more stops, more services" would be the marketing campaign that eliminates any 'massive uproar'.

I think that greatly underestimates the fuss regulars (and politicians) will make if services to their town/city are slowed down, especially as a result of spending billions on speeding up other people‘s trains.

 

[The Planner]

Seems a waste then to be spending money on raising non EPS speeds to get closer to 125mph if people on here are convinced we will be running a 110mph railway....
You certainly won't be seeing Pendos on HS2.

 

[Purple Orange]

I think that greatly underestimates the fuss regulars (and politicians) will make if services to their town/city are slowed down, especially as a result of spending billions on speeding up other people‘s trains.

Which towns would that be? All towns & cities served by Avanti will have a faster alternative on HS2.

 

[Meerkat]

Which towns would that be? All towns & cities served by Avanti will have a faster alternative on HS2.

Politicians also like their direct trains....

 

[London Trains]

Which towns would that be? All towns & cities served by Avanti will have a faster alternative on HS2.

Milton Keynes? Rugby? Coventry? Chester? Bangor? Holyhead?

 

[Purple Orange]

Milton Keynes? Rugby? Coventry? Chester? Bangor? Holyhead?

Chester, Bangor and Holyhead will have a faster route via HS2. Cov is probably faster with a change and many residents who use Cov station may turn towards B’ham Interchange instead. South WCML (incl. Cov) will get a significant increase in frequency - it will almost be metro level services!

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Politicians also like their direct trains....

Nothing says their direct train will be lost though. They may/will have greater frequency too.

 

[mmh]

Chester, Bangor and Holyhead will have a faster route via HS2. Cov is probably faster with a change and many residents who use Cov station may turn towards B’ham Interchange instead. South WCML (incl. Cov) will get a significant increase in frequency - it will almost be metro level services!

There are destinations other than London.

 

[Purple Orange]

There are destinations other than London.

That is true, but that journey isn’t at 125mph.

 

[mmh]

That is true, but that journey isn’t at 125mph.

The residents of the aforementioned stations would disagree. All have journeys to destinations other than London which include 125mph running.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Chester, Bangor and Holyhead will have a faster route via HS2. Cov is probably faster with a change and many residents who use Cov station may turn towards B’ham Interchange instead. South WCML (incl. Cov) will get a significant increase in frequency - it will almost be metro level services!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Aug 2020 ==

Nothing says their direct train will be lost though. They may/will have greater frequency too.

Only if the connections at Crewe work, which is itself a disincentive to travel.
It takes us back to 1966-2003 when there was only a 3tpd through service, otherwise it was changing out of Liverpool/Glasgow trains.
Much as now, as it happens...
HS2 planning has always totally ignored Chester/North Wales.

 

[mmh]

Only if the connections at Crewe work, which is itself a disincentive to travel.
It takes us back to 1966-2003 when there was only a 3tpd through service, otherwise it was changing out of Liverpool/Glasgow trains.
Much as now, as it happens...
HS2 planning has always totally ignored Chester/North Wales.

It's a bizarrely common opinion on the forum that direct trains don't matter, despite all the evidence to the contrary. Certainly in North Wales people travel on the through trains rather than change. It will be the same everywhere else.

 

[irish_rail]

It's a bizarrely common opinion on the forum that direct trains don't matter, despite all the evidence to the contrary. Certainly in North Wales people travel on the through trains rather than change. It will be the same everywhere else.

Agreed this has always puzzled me. I think it's a case of enthusiast types who love the railway see no hardship in changing trains , however the general public, especially those in an older age bracket very much do not like changing trains, no matter how "simple" it is. Birmingham new st being an example of a station hated by anyone using it for anything else other than shopping.

 

[Meerkat]

Agreed this has always puzzled me. I think it's a case of enthusiast types who love the railway see no hardship in changing trains , however the general public, especially those in an older age bracket very much do not like changing trains, no matter how "simple" it is. Birmingham new st being an example of a station hated by anyone using it for anything else other than shopping.

I think it’s a trust issue.
if you get a Direct train then you are on it. It could get delayed, it might break down, but you are sat on the train that should get you to your destination.
If you have to change then there are two stress points. You have to worry whether your first train gets there in time, how to get to what platform, will the next train be there or will it leave you standing around on an unwelcoming platform, and will a seat be available.

 

[Purple Orange]

I think it’s a trust issue.
if you get a Direct train then you are on it. It could get delayed, it might break down, but you are sat on the train that should get you to your destination.
If you have to change then there are two stress points. You have to worry whether your first train gets there in time, how to get to what platform, will the next train be there or will it leave you standing around on an unwelcoming platform, and will a seat be available.

This. It’s all about trust. The public have no issue with changing trains on the London Underground and in fact for most people going to London, the various train termini are not their end destination and will then change on to the tube to continue their journey. The difference is trust and reliability.