Treasury ‘losing patience with rail’

[2L70]

My TPE Guard yesterday was very negative; saying window seats only, mentioning threats of fines, anyone with Northern tickets must get off the train (even though the Northern timetable has been decimated and ticket acceptance has been agreed by the industry)

Only following instructions though @yorkie They were the first to bring the machines back, of course.

 

[Ianno87]

Reduction in units and crews over time is a pretty big cost saving, is it not? Closing country branch lines that get maintenance once every 20 years[1] and run with one unit and one crew saves you next to nothing compared to lopping the peak Thameslink service in half.

There's the cost of the train combined with the associated cost of the maintainence to go with it.

If you've reduced the number of trains but are still paying for fundamentally the same big shed and staff to maintain the trains that are left then the saving isn't as significant.

A Saturday standard hour service (with 12 cars) probably still needs 90-95% or so of the total fleet requirement for a weekday peak.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I've mentioned in other posts, TOCs such as LNER, GTR etc are doing exactly this, but are hindered by the likes of XC. My TPE Guard yesterday was very negative; saying window seats only, mentioning threats of fines, anyone with Northern tickets must get off the train (even though the Northern timetable has been decimated and ticket acceptance has been agreed by the industry)

TPE have always had an officious and unfriendly attitude sitting there in the background, and even with the fancy new trains and removal of the F-in-circles this has not changed. Putting extracts from the NRCoT all over their trains as a passive aggressive statement against passengers says it all - not a single other TOC does this.

 

[bramling]

Have you forgotten how serious this pandemic was, and still is? Reducing the movement of people was a key element in trying to control the virus. Far from scaring people witless, this was the most effective measure available to help reduce the incidence and spread of the virus, and more importantly, reducing the number of deaths and long-term after-effects of those who caught the virus.

That's fine, however it comes down to the basic issue that ultimately we can't barricade ourselves in our homes indefinitely. To put it in different words at some point normal life has to resume.

There's no point in Sunak getting agitated in the meantime, especially when we're already seeing gradual but sustained recoveries in rail passenger numbers.

Is the real issue that Sunak is starting to wake up to the colossal costs of some of the measures taken to date, both in terms of the cost of shutdowns and some of the measures like furlough, and suddenly realised that he's somehow got to find a way of paying for all this?

 

[daodao]

If you are genuine and serious, then I do acknowledge that other views are available and it's your right to express them...except your main premise is wrong. These are not "empty countrysides". These are commuter routes. Tourist routes. Lifelines. Community stations. Community hubs. No, not everybody on these routes has a car. Not everyone on these route have reliable buses.

I do understand where your view is coming from, and where the Treasury "warning" is coming from. Money matters. The railway isn't making much of it right now. The DfT is headed by an airline guy rather than a railways man so of course defending the financial realities of cutting local services is difficult. But let's look at this by stepping back. Cutting local services "through empty countryside" has already been tried by Beeching et. al and is demonstrably a financial, economic, social, and community disaster. Beeching's legacy is one of shortsighted financial gain outweighting long-term strategy.

Nobody should be thinking of doing it again. Lose Rose Hill etc. until September? Lose it permanently? What's next? What price the railways full stop? Be very careful, very careful, about thinking that cutting the Mallaig line would happen in isolation. There will always be a next time. And a next. And a next.

One needs to look at the population served in relation to the length of line and potential cost savings.

I do not agree with how Northern Rail have dealt with the Rose Hill to Piccadilly via Hyde service, which is an actual closure by stealth from mid September. I have not proposed and do not support cutting services to substantial towns served by branch lines such as Sudbury or Barnstaple.

 

[2L70]

TPE have always had an officious and unfriendly attitude sitting there in the background, and even with the fancy new trains and removal of the F-in-circles this has not changed. Putting extracts from the NRCoT all over their trains as a passive aggressive statement against passengers says it all - not a single other TOC does this.

Last night there would have been a few TPE conductors going through packed trains out of Man Picc (Barrier staff gone home by then ) on the hope that someone was travelling on an expired e-ticket, otherwise they would get a “please explain” after the CCTV had been downloaded in a office in York/Manchester...

There’s making your presence known and this.

 

[Andyh82]

I'm really getting sick of this government.

*They* caused the issue with low passenger numbers on the railways, firstly with measures like working from home, and perhaps more avoidably by scaring the population witless. Then there's masks which is also putting people like me off using trains as I just can't be bothered with the dagger looks when I can simply jump into my car and not have to bother with all that.

The issue with passenger numbers on the railways is a consequence of the government's pathetic muddled handling of this situation.

By and large the railway has done what it's been asked to do, despite pressures like heavy staff absence (mainly due to shielding).

Are you suggesting a different government would have done things differently in relation to rail?

Like for example the welsh government, Scottish government and what happened in London under the mayor’s remit?

 

[py_megapixel]

One needs to look at the population served in relation to the length of line and potential cost savings.

I do not agree with how Northern Rail have dealt with the Rose Hill to Piccadilly via Hyde service, which is an actual closure by stealth from mid September. I have not proposed and do not support cutting services to substantial towns served by branch lines such as Sudbury or Barnstaple.

I think the answer is raising taxes to pay for them, not cutting their services.

Is the real issue that Sunak is starting to wake up to the colossal costs of some of the measures taken to date, both in terms of the cost of shutdowns and some of the measures like furlough, and suddenly realised that he's somehow got to find a way of paying for all this?

Again - they will simply have to raise taxes. It seems fair to me - you were paid by the government for several months, so you now pay the government a little more.

 

[yorksrob]

Have you forgotten how serious this pandemic was, and still is? Reducing the movement of people was a key element in trying to control the virus. Far from scaring people witless, this was the most effective measure available to help reduce the incidence and spread of the virus, and more importantly, reducing the number of deaths and long-term after-effects of those who caught the virus.

Except public transport doesn't seem to have been the big vector of transmission some people thought it was.

 

[py_megapixel]

Except public transport doesn't seem to have been the big vector of transmission some people thought it was.

But we didn't know that when the government put the lockdown measures in place.

With hindsight, it could have been made far less stressful for all involved - and not just on public transport.

 

[notadriver]

I’m personally worried it will go the way of British Airways with massive cuts in staffing levels and changes in contracts.
Any resistance would end up with a bus /coach service being provided in the event of strike action. Is it time to get a job on road transport ?

 

[MotCO]

Except public transport doesn't seem to have been the big vector of transmission some people thought it was.

Maybe not by itself, but as a means of enabling movement of people, it surely must have contributed to the spread of the virus.

 

[westv]

Again - they will simply have to raise taxes. It seems fair to me - you were paid by the government for several months, so you now pay the government a little more.

So are you saying only those who were furloughed should pay more tax?

 

[py_megapixel]

So are you saying only those who were furloughed should pay more tax?

No. Everyone should have to pay more tax.

 

[westv]

No. Everyone should have to pay more tax.

But most people weren't "paid by the Government".

 

[Mintona]

I’m personally worried it will go the way of British Airways with massive cuts in staffing levels and changes in contracts.
Any resistance would end up with a bus /coach service being provided in the event of strike action. Is it time to get a job on road transport ?

This is my concern too. I’m sure it won’t be long before the government come after our wages and T&Cs.

 

[py_megapixel]

But most people weren't "paid by the Government".

It doesn't matter. Even in normal times, taxes paid by those who are employed are used to fund benefits for the unemployed (for example).

 

[bramling]

There's the cost of the train combined with the associated cost of the maintainence to go with it.

If you've reduced the number of trains but are still paying for fundamentally the same big shed and staff to maintain the trains that are left then the saving isn't as significant.

A Saturday standard hour service (with 12 cars) probably still needs 90-95% or so of the total fleet requirement for a weekday peak.

This is an interesting subject.

Just had a look for the GN route, I've picked this fairly randomly simply as it's a route I'm most familiar with.

MF - 717 - 21x diagrams, 4x stable between peaks (3x in major depot, 1x in carriage sidings).
SO - 717 - 10x diagrams, but not a fair comparison as the service is half the MF off-peak service.

MF - 387 - 25 diagrams - 6x stable between peaks (all in major depot)
SO - 387 - 26 diagrams - 7x stable between peaks (all in major depot)

MF - 365 - 17 diagrams - 17x stable between peaks (all in major depot)
SO - 365 - 0 diagrams (all stabled in carriage sidings)

MF - 700/1 - 23 diagrams
SO - 700/1 - 23 diagrams

MF - 700/0 - 11 diagrams - 3x stable between peaks (2x in major depot, 1x in carriage sidings)
SO - 700/0 - 7 diagrams (with not quite a full off-peak service).

Because of the difference between the 717 MF and SO service it's hard to make a direct comparison, so working on the basis that 4x 717s stable between the peaks we can say that an all-day off-peak 717 service could be provided with 17x diagrams.

So if we work on the basis that the MF timetable has 97x diagrams, an SO timetable would require 73x diagrams, with the difference being 24x diagrams, which is roughly a 20-25% reduction in diagrams. As you no doubt know the Saturday service does in this instance provide a very small number of additional "with flow" extras, and some strengthening from 8 cars to 12 cars on busy 387 services at tourist times.

It is of course worth adding that the 365s are maintained at a time when Hornsey Depot would otherwise be relatively empty.

Going through and modifying all this on a number of vehicles basis to account for the variations in lengths, it comes out as follows:
MF - 717 - 126
SO - 717 - 102
MF - 387 - 100
SO - 387 - 104
MF - 365 - 68
SO - 365 - 0
MF - 700/1 - 276
SO - 700/1 - 276
MF - 700/0 - 88
SO - 700/0 - 56

Total - MF - 658 vehicles
Total - SO - 538 vehicles

So that makes the SO service require 82% of the number of vehicles required for the full MF service. Naturally the moment any additional services are required at busier Saturday times then this percentage would start increasing quite rapidly, even if they're only out for one trip.

Please feel free to double check my figures!

 

[37424]

Well I have thought for years that there needs to be a review of the most highly subsidised routes verses the benefits they bring and mothballing of some routes over the winter until next spring perhaps ought to be considered. Like the idea of Reopening routes I am only in favour of that for routes that potentially meet their operating costs and not add to the current huge subsidy burden which of course just got a whole lot more.

The reality is Car is king for many people at present if Public Transport is a risk they can avoid taking then why take it? I have a relative who is a driving instructor and he is snowed under with work at present with many of them wanting to switch from Public Transport.

In any case I gather from Mr Miles on WNXX that the persons responsible for leaking this story have moved it on from a worst case scenario to being considered without any real evidence, so its probably a false alarm to some degree.

 

[Ashley Hill]

I find the idea of closing lines whether temporarily or fully a bit rich coming from a government who only a while ago were trumpeting the reversal of Beeching.
There's a noticeable lack of commuters in the Thames Valley. Perhaps many now prefer to work from home,no costly season tickets or wastefull travelling time.

 

[PR1Berske]

I was going to mention the "reversing Beeching" policy in the context of this story (leak?). The DfT has its own priorities and policies, including trying to focus on, and invest in, regional railways as best it can. The Treasury has always been tight with the purse-strings. You can't as a government focus on the policy of creating new railway stations and opening old lines at the same time as threatening to, er, mothball stations and, um, closing existing lines. I'm sure that the truth of this story (leak?) is somewhere in the middle of the two extremes.

 

[Llandudno]

Several of those completely disregard tourist potential. Even the Conwy Valley loads reasonably as far as Betws and could form part of an improved Snowdonia public transport network.

We have had this discussion before, TfW/WAG/Arriva Buses/Snowdonia National Park/Conwy County Council/Gwynedd County Council are unable/unwilling to provide any joined up public transport thinking in north Wales, hence the traffic congestion and parking chaos in the National Park.
There is also no attempt to market the current mish mash of services.

Perhaps the issue is that there are too many (non!) Stakeholders involved and no one will bang their heads together to sort it out. Meanwhile £millions are being thrown at patching up the Conwy Valley line and rebuilding Dolgarrog Station for less than 10 passengers per day.

 

[YorksDMU]

There are problems with rail when the following situation happens. Last Thursday I went to Scarborough. The train to Scarborough was well loaded, about three quarters full. But the majority of us had face coverings on, and there were no problems. The return journey was not good from Bridlington. As far as there the three car 170 was about, again, three quarters full, with one passenger in a wheelchair. On arriving into Bridlington, on the platform, was a large group of passengers. I estimated about one hundred.
Well, somehow, they all got on the already quite full 170. It was then time to depart, but nothing happened. I could see the driver, on the platform, along with the guard, who was on the phone. The guard, after about five minutes, got on the train, and announced that there was a problem with social distancing owing to the train being overcrowded. Then he said that he was in contact with Northern’s Control to see what decision could be made. About ten or so minutes then passed by.
Finally, the guard and driver got into their respective cabs and we departed Bridlington, some twenty minutes late.
The guard then announced that we were late because of the train being overcrowded, and people were not able to social distance - I was under the impression that’s what face coverings were for so people could use public transport in these circumstances.
Unfortunately the guard then went on to say that the rulings and laws were changing every day about the various measures, and so they had to get the advice from Control.

So, unfortunately, I cannot see passengers returning to the railway with these things going on. It was a very unfortunate event, and I think it’s typical of Northern as it is these days. It would be no use closing that line down, since it’s so popular, but more trains are needed to help out with the social distancing requirements if face coverings are not considered enough of a substitute for distancing.

Finally, I will not be put off. I will be travelling again. But I don’t know how many of those other passengers will be going by rail again. It was a very sad incident.

 

[Meerkat]

It’s just the Treasure lighting a fire to concentrate some minds isn’t it?
some branch lines would be better replaced with electric buses, but it doesn’t save enough money to justify the political cost.
And they cant reduce capacity without changing distancing guidelines as the media photos of crowded trains would be damaging. However, even if the science says trains are low risk it will be difficult PR if you have transport specific rules - folk won’t bother with stats before whining ‘I can’t have a party with my friends but I can get on a crowded train with a load of strangers!’

 

[Bantamzen]

There are problems with rail when the following situation happens. Last Thursday I went to Scarborough. The train to Scarborough was well loaded, about three quarters full. But the majority of us had face coverings on, and there were no problems. The return journey was not good from Bridlington. As far as there the three car 170 was about, again, three quarters full, with one passenger in a wheelchair. On arriving into Bridlington, on the platform, was a large group of passengers. I estimated about one hundred.
Well, somehow, they all got on the already quite full 170. It was then time to depart, but nothing happened. I could see the driver, on the platform, along with the guard, who was on the phone. The guard, after about five minutes, got on the train, and announced that there was a problem with social distancing owing to the train being overcrowded. Then he said that he was in contact with Northern’s Control to see what decision could be made. About ten or so minutes then passed by.
Finally, the guard and driver got into their respective cabs and we departed Bridlington, some twenty minutes late.
The guard then announced that we were late because of the train being overcrowded, and people were not able to social distance - I was under the impression that’s what face coverings were for so people could use public transport in these circumstances.
Unfortunately the guard then went on to say that the rulings and laws were changing every day about the various measures, and so they had to get the advice from Control.

So, unfortunately, I cannot see passengers returning to the railway with these things going on. It was a very unfortunate event, and I think it’s typical of Northern as it is these days. It would be no use closing that line down, since it’s so popular, but more trains are needed to help out with the social distancing requirements if face coverings are not considered enough of a substitute for distancing.

Finally, I will not be put off. I will be travelling again. But I don’t know how many of those other passengers will be going by rail again. It was a very sad incident.

I would have loved to be a fly on the way for that call.

"Control, the train is quite full and social distancing isn't being maintained. What should we do?"
"Is the train full?"
"No"
"When is the next train?"
"2 hours Control"
"Well do you want to tell some passengers that they have to wait that long?"
"On our way Control"

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's quite reasonable, in the current circumstances, for the Treasury to want a lower cost for funding the railway.
The rest of the government's budget is under huge pressure, to fund furlough and all the other support schemes for the economy at large.
The railway cannot possibly expect to be exempt from the fallout, especially when it is seen as part of the problem.
I imagine the Treasury has asked DfT to reduce its support cost by a figure, let's say 10% for illustration (it might be much greater).
It's then up to the DfT to find cuts in rail of 10%.
Where do you start, given that it takes an age for the railway super-tanker to even notice there is a problem?
Line closures take years. Train leasing is also contracted for years (all those IEPs for 27 years!).
Timetables can be re-written in months.
So I would expect service reductions, especially in commuter peak operation, is the most likely place to start.
You might then aim to park large numbers of older high-maintenance stock.
There will then have to be staff reductions, which are inevitable with service cuts.
It might be only the first of several budget cuts, depending on how severe the economic fallout of Covid is.
The UK is currently running at 20% below last year's GDP figure - that's the scale of the problem.

Have folk not noticed what is happening to the rest of the travel sector (especially airlines)?
It would be better if DfT had decided on the future organisation of the railway, but it seems unable to announce anything meaningful.

 

[philosopher]

It’s just the Treasure lighting a fire to concentrate some minds isn’t it?
some branch lines would be better replaced with electric buses, but it doesn’t save enough money to justify the political cost.

Given the issues with climate change, I reckon closing railway lines for good would be politically toxic for the government. Extinction Rebellion and the School Strike for Climate groups would have a have field day if the government seriously considered closing railway lines.

 

[kylemore]

Are you suggesting a different government would have done things differently in relation to rail?

Like for example the welsh government, Scottish government and what happened in London under the mayor’s remit?

Yes you're quite right they were all as bad as each other - the only government I wish had been in charge was the Swedish Government.

 

[RT4038]

Given the issues with climate change, I reckon closing railway lines for good would be politically toxic for the government. Extinction Rebellion and the School Strike for Climate groups would have a have field day if the government seriously considered closing railway lines.

Doubt it would get to that. Service reductions, and temporary replacement by road transport service where infrastructure has deteriorated/collapsed.

 

[greyman42]

No. You fall into the trap (of many London civil servants no doubt) of thinking that just because a line runs through "empty countryside" its trains are also empty. This is not the case.

Correct, and it is sometimes the empty countryside which attracts passengers to these services.