Why are people still so fearful of the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

[Bletchleyite]

any evidence of that? or has it just faded away like viruses do?

It may do that, but I think I'd want evidence of it having done.

 

[AdamWW]

any evidence of that? or has it just faded away like viruses do?

In what way do viruses just 'fade away'?

 

[Ken H]

In what way do viruses just 'fade away'?

dunno. but they do. which is why we need a new flu vaccine each year. the antibodies we were given last year no longer protect us, so we need a new lot.
maybe its herd immunity.

 

[MattA7]

I wonder how we would have responded to this situation years ago for example in the 1950s/60s.

There were many other contagious and dangerous diseases (such as polio, measles etc) going around but we didn’t shut down the country and enforce social distancing, shielding etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In what way do viruses just 'fade away'?

Generally speaking, but not universally, if allowed to spread unfettered viruses often tend towards a less harmful form because that encourages spread, which is what viruses do, because dead people don't spread viruses (any illness they cause is incidental - all living things are basically just programmed to reproduce). That's just natural selection based on mutations. Doesn't always happen but it very often does.

 

[Ken H]

I wonder how we would have responded to this situation years ago for example in the 1950s/60s.

There were many other contagious and dangerous diseases (such as polio, measles etc) going around but we didn’t shut down the country and enforce social distancing, shielding etc.

lots of horrid diseases pre antibiotics/vaccination
Scarlet fever*
Typhoid,
TB
Polio


* My great grandparents lost 3 under 5 children in the late 1890's to Scarlet Fever. All in one quarter.
Mum talked of kids being taken away in the 'fever van' between the wars. and never coming back to school. Kids died in their thousands back then.

 

[Ken H]

Generally speaking, but not universally, if allowed to spread unfettered viruses often tend towards a less harmful form because that encourages spread, which is what viruses do, because dead people don't spread viruses (any illness they cause is incidental - all living things are basically just programmed to reproduce). That's just natural selection based on mutations. Doesn't always happen but it very often does.

a parasite that kills its host wont be very successful.

 

[AdamWW]

dunno. but they do. which is why we need a new flu vaccine each year. the antibodies we were given last year no longer protect us, so we need a new lot.
maybe its herd immunity.

We need a new flu vaccine because 'flu' is a group of viruses and every year we get new ones.
Coronaviruses seem to be more stable against mutations.

Generally speaking, but not universally, if allowed to spread unfettered viruses often tend towards a less harmful form because that encourages spread, which is what viruses do, because dead people don't spread viruses (any illness they cause is incidental - all living things are basically just programmed to reproduce). That's just natural selection based on mutations. Doesn't always happen but it very often does.

This coronavirus seems to be pretty good at infecting people who remain well enough to go round spreading it, so perhaps not too much scope for pressure in that direction.

 

[island]

If you don't mind paying for one there are plenty of opportunities.

I am more than happy to pay, but the centres are all Monday to Friday 9 to 5 type places, I am still working full time from home, and the nearest location to me is still over an hour return trip. I don’t want one enough to book a half day off work

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am more than happy to pay, but the centres are all Monday to Friday 9 to 5 type places, I am still working full time from home, and the nearest location to me is still over an hour return trip. I don’t want one enough to book a half day off work

Ah, fair enough. They were available as finger-prick tests but there was an issue calling the accuracy of these into question, they may well be back if proven OK.

 

[Ken H]

Generally speaking, but not universally, if allowed to spread unfettered viruses often tend towards a less harmful form because that encourages spread, which is what viruses do, because dead people don't spread viruses (any illness they cause is incidental - all living things are basically just programmed to reproduce). That's just natural selection based on mutations. Doesn't always happen but it very often does.

They reckon Ebola was bad in certain communities in Africa because of their cultural norms meant touching dead bodies. So the infection spread.

We need a new flu vaccine because 'flu' is a group of viruses and every year we get new ones.
Coronaviruses seem to be more stable against mutations.



This coronavirus seems to be pretty good at infecting people who remain well enough to go round spreading it, so perhaps not too much scope for pressure in that direction.

so its spreading, if we believe the cases numbers.
but the tests give false positives. up to 25%, i hear
so maybe it isnt.
Anyway, who not let it spread in the summer? the healthy can get herd immunity so it cant take off again in the cold, dark damp weather in Autumn.

 

[island]

Ah, fair enough. They were available as finger-prick tests but there was an issue calling the accuracy of these into question, they may well be back if proven OK.

Yeah, the current state of affairs is that for an accurate result you need to have blood drawn in person. I’m trying to find a way to work it out.

 

[Ken H]

Yeah, the current state of affairs is that for an accurate result you need to have blood drawn in person. I’m trying to find a way to work it out.

ask very carefully about the number of false positive and false negative results with the test you have. The number of false positives can be a significant percentage.

 

[AM9]

ask very carefully about the number of false positive and false negative results with the test you have. The number of false positives can be a significant percentage.

And so presumably can the false negatives be also.

 

[island]

ask very carefully about the number of false positive and false negative results with the test you have. The number of false positives can be a significant percentage.

The provider I am looking at has 7-13% false negatives and 1% false positives.

 

[packermac]

Sadly, masks have given people a false sense of security and distancing has evaporated. Not wearing a mask seems to subliminally trigger distancing and is hence the safer option.

I can only talk about my home town of Swanage but apart from shops I see very little mask wearing or social distancing, so I would not tend to agree the two are linked. But of course it is a holiday town so that may make things worse.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

What are will be the results?

Everyone will die during the winter unless they stay locked up at home as by then, the virus will replicate ten-fold in the cosy warmth of our living rooms and thus, staying at home will contain the virus

 

[Bletchleyite]

Everyone will die during the winter unless they stay locked up at home as by then, the virus will replicate ten-fold in the cosy warmth of our living rooms and thus, staying at home will contain the virus

"Everyone" won't die, as even if 100% of the population caught it only 1-2% would die, that being the approximate death rate. It's not a small figure, which is why measures are in place, but it's not "everyone".

 

[Islineclear3_1]

"Everyone" won't die, as even if 100% of the population caught it only 1-2% would die, that being the approximate death rate. It's not a small figure, which is why measures are in place, but it's not "everyone".

Erm this was meant as a joke...

 

[jumble]

You did not address my point. If there is really nothing to be fearful of, why is the government not proposing that every single healthy person in the country have a gathering in the covid ward? As long as this is scheduled at a rate which does not overwhelm the NHS (some of them may still get seriously ill and need hospital treatment), we will have herd immunity in record time! Does not need Sherlock Holmes to work that one out.

I am not at all fearful and Covid is not going to ruin my life

I am not going near a COVID ward any more than I am not fearful of getting run over on a motorway but I am not going to try to dodge the traffic on one to see if I get killed or not.

I am not in the danger zone
I have risk assessed the situation.
I live with a son who works in a care home and a missus who works at a GP surgery
I go to pubs and restaurants , I go on the London underground and busses, I go to hotels
I am not going to stop doing any of these things unless ordered to
I use hand sanitiser often if it is available

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Parents used to take their children to "measles" parties to gain herd immunity so why can't we have outdoor "Covid" parties/gatherings?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Erm this was meant as a joke...

Ah, sorry. There are people who do believe that!

Parents used to go to "measles" parties to gain herd immunity so why can't we have outdoor "Covid" parties/gatherings?

Some young people in the US were doing that. There was a fairly well publicised case of a college kid who did so and got very serious complications, and basically said "I screwed up" shortly before he died

 

[Merle Haggard]

lots of horrid diseases pre antibiotics/vaccination
Scarlet fever*
Typhoid,
TB
Polio


* My great grandparents lost 3 under 5 children in the late 1890's to Scarlet Fever. All in one quarter.
Mum talked of kids being taken away in the 'fever van' between the wars. and never coming back to school. Kids died in their thousands back then.

I restrict my posts to railway matters usually, but found this interesting. When I was a child in the 1950's, I had (at different times!) whooping cough and scarlet fever - and, incidentally, my memory is that they weren't particularly unpleasant, but memory does seem to reduce bad times. I had every other common illness apart from T.B. and polio; might have had 'Asian Flu', not sure.
Subsequently, I've never been ill with more than a cold (so far!) and I'm not sure why; did those illnesses give me greater immunity, or was surviving them a sign I had strong natural resistance in the first place? Or has probability just reverted to average overall?

 

[AdamWW]

Parents used to take their children to "measles" parties to gain herd immunity so why can't we have outdoor "Covid" parties/gatherings?

And the NHS advice I've seen is not to do so because complications from measles while rare can be serious.

 

[Richard Scott]

And the NHS advice I've seen is not to do so because complications from measles while rare can be serious.

Digressing but I had measles as a kid as couldn't have the inoculation for whatever reason. It was rather unpleasant.

 

[Ken H]

And the NHS advice I've seen is not to do so because complications from measles while rare can be serious.

German measles (Rubella) is not nice, especially if a lady is pregnant. Which is why we vaccinate for it. But it is a bacteria, not a virus.

Struck through as incorrect.

 

[MikeWM]

Digressing but I had measles as a kid as couldn't have the inoculation for whatever reason. It was rather unpleasant.

Yes, I have not terribly fond memories of measles, mumps and scarlet fever from my childhood. Somehow I avoided chicken pox.

 

[Richard Scott]

Yes, I have not terribly fond memories of measles, mumps and scarlet fever from my childhood. Somehow I avoided chicken pox.

Oh, can trade you chicken pox for scarlet fever! Nearly got house on childhood illness bingo! Perhaps kids soon will add Covid-19 to their list?

 

[Ken H]

Yes, I have not terribly fond memories of measles, mumps and scarlet fever from my childhood. Somehow I avoided chicken pox.

I still have a chicken pox scar on my cheek where I picked the spots.

And I got shingles when I was 55. Nice.

 

[AdamWW]

German measles (Rubella) is not nice, especially if a lady is pregnant. Which is why we vaccinate for it. But it is a bacteria, not a virus.

Measles, like Covid-19, is caused by a virus.