Local lockdown in Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire - Discussion

[Baxenden Bank]

Given that the general consensus amongst senior doctors is that the time from infection to being seriously unwell is on average 15 days, with some outliers at 20 days, I would be expecting to see the amount of people on hospital and on ventilators to be seriously peaking on the North West around now, with the early signs of a death rate peak. This obviously isn't happening. I'd therefore like to know how they are able to justify these restrictions still in the NW.

Exterminate, Exterminate.

Where is the Doctor.

Exterminate, Exterminate.

As an upturned dustbin with a plunger once said.

I note the 'red wall' MP's are starting to get uppity in today's press.

A good test will be if a smallish town in a large rural area gets an upsurge. Will they lock down the entire rural area or just the town? It is claimed 'too difficult' to do 'postcode' based restrictions. Many of the northern councils in the current 'protection zone' have rural parts but are generally considered to be urban areas. For example, were Llandrindod Wells to get a rise in cases, would they lockdown the entirety of Powys or mid-Wales?

 

[Djgr]

Exterminate, Exterminate.

Where is the Doctor.

Exterminate, Exterminate.

As an upturned dustbin with a plunger once said.

I note the 'red wall' MP's are starting to get uppity in today's press.

A good test will be if a smallish town in a large rural area gets an upsurge. Will they lock down the entire rural area or just the town? It is claimed 'too difficult' to do 'postcode' based restrictions. Many of the northern councils in the current 'protection zone' have rural parts but are generally considered to be urban areas. For example, were Llandrindod Wells to get a rise in cases, would they lockdown the entirety of Powys or mid-Wales?

Are you suggesting Llandrindod Wells is an urban area? Does it even have a set of traffic lights?!

 

[NorthOxonian]

Are you suggesting Llandrindod Wells is an urban area? Does it even have a set of traffic lights?!

But there are some (reasonably large) urban areas which are in huge local authorities, parts of which have nothing to do with them. Should Berwick be locked down for an outbreak in Blyth, Salisbury locked down for an outbreak in Chippenham, Sedgefield be locked down for an outbreak in Consett? The latter would be particularly politically interesting - given the way County Durham seems to be becoming more marginal in its politics.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

But there are some (reasonably large) urban areas which are in huge local authorities, parts of which have nothing to do with them. Should Berwick be locked down for an outbreak in Blyth, Salisbury locked down for an outbreak in Chippenham, Sedgefield be locked down for an outbreak in Consett? The latter would be particularly politically interesting - given the way County Durham seems to be becoming more marginal in its politics.

Yes, good examples, that's the sort of places I was thinking of but couldn't.

Better still, should all of Durham (unitary authority) be locked down because of an outbreak in Barnard Castle?

 

[NorthOxonian]

Yes, good examples, that's the sort of places I was thinking of but couldn't.

Better still, should all of Durham (unitary authority) be locked down because of an outbreak in Barnard Castle?

I think the most extreme example of the latter would be if an outbreak happened in Prudhoe. There are no links from there to urban SE Northumberland at all, and very strong ties to western Gateshead (and Newcastle to a lesser extent). It'd be incredibly illogical if people in Crawcrook (who could well do their shopping and socialise in Prudhoe) weren't under any measures, but those in Ashington (some of whom might never have even been to Prudhoe) were under restrictions.

 

[Djgr]

The difficulty you have is that you have a draw the line somewhere and the boundary has to be something pretty concrete. This takes you down the route of council boundaries, Parliamentary constituencies or postcodes (and even all these seem to baffle a large proportion of the Great British Public)

 

[NorthOxonian]

The difficulty you have is that you have a draw the line somewhere and the boundary has to be something pretty concrete. This takes you down the route of council boundaries, Parliamentary constituencies or postcodes (and even all these seem to baffle a large proportion of the Great British Public)

They aren't particularly well known or understood, so boundaries would need to be clearly explained, but Travel to work areas (TTWAs) would be fairly reasonable lines to use. These tend to reflect fairly natural communities, and are designed so that most travel is within areas rather tham between them. They aren't perfect (for example, some are cross border and so wouldn't work because of devolution), but they are a fairly decent option if you want non-arbitrary boundaries.

 

[DB]

Or just not do it at all! No need to worry about arbitrary boundaries then.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Or just not do it at all! No need to worry about arbitrary boundaries then.

Well yes, but realistically the government aren't going to do that (too scared of Piers Morgan calling them "granny killers"). There will be local lockdowns, so there needs to be a way to work out where their boundaries will be.

 

[Djgr]

They aren't particularly well known or understood, so boundaries would need to be clearly explained, but Travel to work areas (TTWAs) would be fairly reasonable lines to use. These tend to reflect fairly natural communities, and are designed so that most travel is within areas rather tham between them. They aren't perfect (for example, some are cross border and so wouldn't work because of devolution), but they are a fairly decent option if you want non-arbitrary boundaries.

But ultimately Travel to Work areas would need to be translated to specific towns, streets and houses and clearly communicated. Is this practical?

And difficult boundaries cut-offs will still occur.
For example Chester's would include two different countries.

 

[Huntergreed]

But ultimately Travel to Work areas would need to be translated to specific towns, streets and houses and clearly communicated. Is this practical?

And difficult boundaries cut-offs will still occur.
For example Chester's would include two different countries.

It would be very interesting if Chester or somewhere like it happened. I imagine up here Scotland are far more likely to impose a local lockdown than England given the difference in strategy

 

[NorthOxonian]

It would be very interesting if Chester or somewhere like it happened. I imagine up here Scotland are far more likely to impose a local lockdown than England given the difference in strategy

Having said that, it did briefly look like Carlisle was flaring up, and I don't think there were any restrictions imposed across the border.

 

[30907]

I think the most extreme example of the latter would be if an outbreak happened in Prudhoe. There are no links from there to urban SE Northumberland at all, and very strong ties to western Gateshead (and Newcastle to a lesser extent). It'd be incredibly illogical if people in Crawcrook (who could well do their shopping and socialise in Prudhoe) weren't under any measures, but those in Ashington (some of whom might never have even been to Prudhoe) were under restrictions.

You are quite right, though as a former resident of Crawcrook I remember going to Prudhoe exactly twice in 3 years (times have changed, that was 30 years ago - I have since lived in Craven District, Bradford and Hyndburn).

However, hard cases make bad law etc...
The vast majority of the locked-down population live within an urban/suburban area. The rural areas are by and large dependent on the urban areas for shopping/employment/lower paid workers, and Oxenhope depends on Keighley, Great Harwood (where they've just shut down a pub for repeated violations) on Blackburn/Accrington....(just like North Oxford on Cowley/Blackbird Leys).

And yes, personally I'd far rather not be in lockdown, but whatever my MP may say I don't think the virus will stop at the pre-1974 boundary.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Having said that, it did briefly look like Carlisle was flaring up, and I don't think there were any restrictions imposed across the border.

Wasn't there a five mile travel restriction imposed in the Annan and Gretna areas in early July?

 

[Djgr]

Having said that, it did briefly look like Carlisle was flaring up, and I don't think there were any restrictions imposed across the border.

But in Chester the English and Welsh suburbs merge.

Chester FC's ground is famously partly in both countries, with policing of matches alternating between Cheshire and North Wales (allegedly anyway)

 

[Huntergreed]

Wasn't there a five mile travel restriction imposed in the Annan and Gretna areas in early July?

Yes, due to a “Cluster” in Annan, although I suspect this was more to keep folk from the Annan/Dumfries area on the “good” side of the border given there were only around 12 cases in the “outbreak”

 

[Richard Scott]

Manchester lockdown proving really be effective as friend of mine who lives there said the police failed to close down two street raves!!! Obviously he's really happy about all the restrictions and then this happens.

 

[Mag_seven]

Manchester lockdown proving really be effective as friend of mine who lives there said the police failed to close down two street raves!!! Obviously he's really happy about all the restrictions and then this happens.

The reason why these illegal raves are happening is a direct result of the local lockdown - if all official venues for young people to socialise (e.g. nightclubs etc) are closed then they will find other ways to get together.

 

[Richard Scott]

The reason why these illegal raves are happening is a direct result of the local lockdown - if all official venues for young people to socialise (e.g. nightclubs etc) are closed then they will find other ways to get together.

Don't disagree but shows how pointless local restrictions are. Just the Government seen to be doing something and making people's lives more miserable in that area for, what is in effect, a small number of cases.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The reason why these illegal raves are happening is a direct result of the local lockdown - if all official venues for young people to socialise (e.g. nightclubs etc) are closed then they will find other ways to get together.

Which means if you're going to do it, you have to do it properly, with strong enforcement and zero tolerance. A couple of weeks back to Zoom parties and the case rate will come down.

 

[farleigh]

Which means if you're going to do it, you have to do it properly, with strong enforcement and zero tolerance. A couple of weeks back to Zoom parties and the case rate will come down.

I don't think that Zoom parties quite hit the spot for young people. We have asked a lot of them already - putting their lives on hold - and they need to be out living their lives. I am not supporting illegal street parties and raves, but strong enforcement and zero tolerance will lead to greater resentment and challenge to any measures that are in place.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think that Zoom parties quite hit the spot for young people. We have asked a lot of them already - putting their lives on hold - and they need to be out living their lives.

No, they need to accept that everyone is having to pause something they like doing for the greater good. A valuable life lesson, that "me me me" is not how things should be - others should be first.

 

[Huntergreed]

No, they need to accept that everyone is having to pause something they like doing for the greater good. A valuable life lesson, that "me me me" is not how things should be - others should be first.

Is it really for the greater good?

I personally think that we have asked far too much of the young generation and that their needs should stop being ignored to favour the needs of the elderly which is happening at the moment. Saying this is all a “life lesson” really shows a lack of empathy for the sacrifices they have had to make and just how tough it has been for them, I don’t think that’s the right way to look at it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is it really for the greater good?

I personally think that we have asked far too much of the young generation and that their needs should stop being ignored to favour the needs of the elderly which is happening at the moment. Saying this is all a “life lesson” really shows a lack of empathy for the sacrifices they have had to make and just how tough it has been for them, I don’t think that’s the right way to look at it.

Is there anyone it hasn't been tough for (though in varying degrees)? A home working hermit, maybe?

 

[yorkie]

No, they need to accept that everyone is having to pause something they like doing for the greater good. A valuable life lesson, that "me me me" is not how things should be - others should be first.

Sorry but I think that's nonsense.

But we have done this subject to death before; see;

The longer things remain closed, the more people will be driven 'underground' . Earlier in this thread I linked to a tweet from someone who pointed out that youngsters who gathered in Kelvingrove Park in Glasgow had nothing else to do, as all activities for them are suspended.

What do the lockdown enthusiast brigade think will happen if thousands of young people have literally nothing to do? There are loads of people who usually run activities for young people but are currently prevented from doing so. Is this at all sensible or wise? Can the people who make these decisions, or who lobby to delay reopenings of schools, clubs and other activities, not see the bigger picture? I find it absolutely incredible, shocking and extremely disturbing that they seemingly can not.

Those who want long and/or harsh lockdowns and/or oppose re-openings are effectively demanding that the police spend every single day breaking up gatherings, for example:

Notting Hill: Police officers attacked at illegal street party

Met Police Commissioner Cressida Dick condemns the "utterly unacceptable" behaviour.

www.bbc.co.uk

Police officers have been attacked while attempting to disperse crowds at an illegal party for the second night in a row.

The Met Police said objects were thrown at officers at an "unlicensed music event" in Notting Hill, west London, in the early hours of Friday.

A witness said there were "about 150-200 people" present with violence breaking out from about midnight.

Is it reasonable for the 'lockdown enthusiast' brigade to put such a strain on our police force? Is it reasonable for them to demand actions which have severely detrimental consequences for the quality of life of residents who live near hotspots where such gatherings are likely to be held? If this continues it could spiral further out of control.

The choice is between getting back to normal, or risk more and more disorder and antisocial behaviour, which will put huge strains on community cohesion and on the emergency services, especially the police force, who have a hard enough job as it is.

It is becoming increasingly clear to me that the lockdown enthusiast brigade are incapable of seeing the bigger picture.

BTW I totally condemn anyone who attends illegal events, or who gets drunk in parks, or who behaves in an anti-social way. But the reality is that a significant minority of people are going to behave like this if things continue, and I do not think it is wise to continue down the current dangerous path of depriving many people of constructive activities and things to do, as the results of such actions are abundantly clear to see.

 

[farleigh]

No, they need to accept that everyone is having to pause something they like doing for the greater good. A valuable life lesson, that "me me me" is not how things should be - others should be first.

But you are being a bit 'me,me,me' by telling them they have to do what you want. They won't listen you know

 

[Yew]

No, they need to accept that everyone is having to pause something they like doing for the greater good. A valuable life lesson, that "me me me" is not how things should be - others should be first.

When you start looking at the costs of this, you soon see that it's not for the greater good.

 

[30907]

Given that the general consensus amongst senior doctors is that the time from infection to being seriously unwell is on average 15 days, with some outliers at 20 days, I would be expecting to see the amount of people on hospital and on ventilators to be seriously peaking on the North West around now, with the early signs of a death rate peak. This obviously isn't happening. I'd therefore like to know how they are able to justify these restrictions still in the NW.

A hypothesis (not my own, but from France:
1. the majority of tests and cases are now among younger people.
2. younger people are much less likely to have severe symptoms.
3. they are therefore much less likely to end up in hospital etc.

Possible reasons for (1):
they are more likely to be in a workplace; they are more likely to be out and about socialising*; they are more likely to live in multi occupied properties.
They are therefore more likely to have been tracked and traced - which reinforces the bias of detection towards younger people.
(* I am in my 60s and retired - no-one I know over the age of 60 has returned to anything like a pre-covid lifestyle, though there may be class bias here too).

 

[Richard Scott]

No, they need to accept that everyone is having to pause something they like doing for the greater good. A valuable life lesson, that "me me me" is not how things should be - others should be first.

The greater good is let them have it and we achieve herd immunity sooner allowing those who have to shield to restart their lives.

 

[greyman42]

Is there anyone it hasn't been tough for (though in varying degrees)? A home working hermit, maybe?

Probably more than what you think. Anyone who has been able to work from home and does not have much of a social life has probably noticed very little difference.
If you are in this category and prefer working from home you may well want this to go on forever.