Estimated cost of MML electrification!

[TheWalrus]

This is totally crazy but I think I have managed to give an estimate on how much it would cost to electrify the MML. This includes Bedford-Sheffield; Ratcliffe Junction-Nottingham; and Kettering North Junction-Loughborough South Junc. via Corby, Melton Mowbray and Oakham.

Estimated between £268,753,100 and £349,379,030.

Anyone think this is accurate? Any thoughts or modifications to this idea?

Please give your opinions!

Cheers,

Ryan

 

[Lampshade]

Double it and scale back the plans and you're about right, don't forget this is Network Rail you're on about

 

[TheWalrus]

Double it and scale back the plans and you're about right, don't forget this is Network Rail you're on about

lol true! guess they probably wouldn't bother with corby. :/

 

[gordonthemoron]

They might do Kettering-Corby, but I doubt they'd do Corby-Melton etc.

 

[Ivo]

Corby may be a new station but there is little point in not electrifying it if the rest was done. It would become a white elephant almost; a one-off diesel service in a sea of OHLE services.

How do you come to that figure?

 

[shinkansen1966]

Sorry to put the mockers on this thread. You can forget any new electrification and as little new rolling stock as possible. Cancelling new expenditure will be easy. You don't miss what you never had.

Cutting existing services will be tricky. Especially if the cuts are in areas served by MPs with slender majorities.

As with much else, central govt will pass the buck. They'll allow TOCs some freedom to set the level of rail service. Then when services are cut, the DfT can put their hands up and say "not my decision".

 

[TheWalrus]

How do you come to that figure?

Longer story than why you hate Arriva...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

They might do Kettering-Corby, but I doubt they'd do Corby-Melton etc.

If they did do up to Melton, XC electrification would be more attractive and it could also provide a diversionary route for engineering works.

 

[YorkshireBear]

MML doesn't look that unlikely, with next to no stock needed, Electrifiy up to derby and run HST's to sheffield to cut costs have all services derby and south modified 222's.

Corby will be done, The government has asked NR to do a cost analysis for bedford corby as the 1ST step in MML electrification. So corby will be the minimum i would expect.

They need to be seen to be green so from outside MML looks win win, Cheaper and still being seen to be green.

 

[mrcheek]

Sorry to put the mockers on this thread. You can forget any new electrification and as little new rolling stock as possible. Cancelling new expenditure will be easy. You don't miss what you never had.

Cutting existing services will be tricky. Especially if the cuts are in areas served by MPs with slender majorities.

As with much else, central govt will pass the buck. They'll allow TOCs some freedom to set the level of rail service. Then when services are cut, the DfT can put their hands up and say "not my decision".

Nick Clegg's constituency is in Sheffield. MML electrification is happening, no question.

 

[Ivo]

Me: "How do you come to that figure?"
Ryan: "Longer story than why you hate Arriva..."

Given that I only told you a condensed version of the story, that sounds rather ominous! I'll take your word for it

 

[daccer]

The MML will be the next electrification I am sure - when that is exactly is up for debate though!! I think the idea of electrifying to Corby and Kettering is that these would then become suburban stations served by EMU;s maybe as an extension of Thameslink services (Kettering is about an hour from St P at the moment). This provides economies of scale as the service already runs to bedford.

Moving onto Leicester and Derby would I assume be next with Sheffield and Notts last. The project would achieve many benefits due to many of the arguments already put forward ref rolling stock. It would also prove the benefit of electrification to justify further schemes and allow the perfection of the process for the much larger GWML scheme. I would certainly look at wiring Corby-Melton-Leicester for diversions but in the current financial circumstances I would assue this would happen at the end of the scheme if at all. As a side issue the presence of the 'manton' line to Melton is a god send for diversions and tsaking heavy freight off the mainline and makes the case for the reinstatement of other 'lost' through routes a bit of a no-brainer - the Leamside line, Woodhead route and Matlock-Buxton routes could have fulfilled the same purposes - the fact they have been lost are mistakes tha have been paid for many times over!

 

[TheWalrus]

Me: "How do you come to that figure?"
Ryan: "Longer story than why you hate Arriva..."

Given that I only told you a condensed version of the story, that sounds rather ominous! I'll take your word for it

lol, well if you like ill send you the spreadsheet
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Nick Clegg's constituency is in Sheffield. MML electrification is happening, no question.

Sheffield Hallam. But the PMs constituency is in Oxon so you could argue GWML is happening...and remember also Theresa May is from Maidenhead, but crossrail is covering to Maidenhead you could say...

 

[Dennis]

I hope there is a cost - benefit analysis included; without a suitably high ratio, no matter how cheap the scheme, it won't progress

 

[Ivo]

Walrus: Please do Maybe we could use it to form a case for the GWML (at least to Weston/Swansea/Oxford) as well?

 

[TheWalrus]

Could do it includes a bit of GWML too!

 

[tbtc]

Nick Clegg's constituency is in Sheffield. MML electrification is happening, no question.

Just like the Forgemasters loan happened

And the Government money commited to OutoKumpo redevelopment happened

And the pledged support for regeneration in the Sevenstone project in the city centre happened.

Except, no, these were all Government commitments that were scrapped. I can't see Nick Clegg doing Sheffield any favours (not as if Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath got electrified under Brown, is it?)

 

[Invincibles]

Politically it makes a lot of sense, especially if it is announced at a "non political" time like 2012. I do not think that the location of Cleggs constituency is that relevant though, there will be a lot of changes in the lib-lab balance of Sheffield over the next five years that will have far more impact than any electrification.

Presuming the cost benefit is better than the GWML then it is a very sensible policy at a time when cuts are important...

 

[jopsuk]

MML wires create many more "infill" scheme opportunities than GWML wires- funding difficulties aside, an electrfied MML could be the seed for much more electrification connecting the four main lines north of London, leaving most of the West Country plus Wales (basically, a wedge between the West Coast and South West main lines). as "diesel country"

 

[222666]

I could see a 'first phase' of it being beneficial, as far as Leicester & including the South Wigston curve, providing a diversion route for WCML. Then maybe Electrostars could run that far off the Thameslink, maybe with Corby in that too.

Can't see anything like that happening anytime soon though as MML are doing alright with new-ish trains, it won't need attention for many years imo. Stagecoach will likely keep it longer too.

 

[starrymarkb]

As I've pointed out though - the GWML is more about stock replacement. It's going to have to be done in the next 10 years unless someone commits to a new expensive order of fuel thirsty 125mph diesels. The HSTs might be able to be life extended into the 2020s but would still need replacing.

 

[Ivo]

I'm still waiting for that spreadsheet Ryan

 

[Kneedown]

Can't see anything like that happening anytime soon though as MML are doing alright with new-ish trains, it won't need attention for many years imo.

HST's aren't exactly newish, and i don't think you'll see any more 222's being built. On the other hand, Bombardier are supposedly coming up with an ac overhead conversion for the Voyager and Meridien sets.

 

[EWS 58038]

Meridians can be adopted to OHLE in a day by extending the units by one coach. This has been on the drawing boards for a long time and the manufactuer is ready to deliver the test coach if required.

Hmmmm 125 mph diesel train plus additional OHLE passenger coach.... Do I hear a good value for money replacement for the agilty train SET and have a low budget by-mode version of IEP?

 

[scandal]

I assume that the estimate in question is without the treasury overspend bias, compensation to TOCs and passengers and resignalling. Probably about right then.

 

[WatcherZero]

The 60% optimism bias, I was thinking that.