More than 200,000 people could die from
the impact of lockdown and
protecting the NHS, an official government report shows.
As national restrictions were imposed, experts from the Department of Health, the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the government’s Actuary Department and the Home Office forecast the collateral damage from delays to healthcare and the
effects of recession arising from the pandemic response.
It estimated that in a reasonable worst case scenario, around 50,000 people would die from coronavirus in the first six months of the pandemic, with mitigation measures in place.
But in the report published in April they calculated that up to 25,000 could die from delays to treatment in the same period and a further 185,000 in the medium to long term - amounting to nearly one million years of life lost.
It comes amid debate over the easing of lockdown restrictions, with some arguing it is both too early to lift the measures and that they should have been imposed earlier, while other politicians have questioned whether the cure is worse than the disease.
The Prime Minister has stressed his desire to avoid a return to national lockdown.
In an interview in The Telegraph, Boris Johnson likened the measures to a nuclear deterrent, and said he did not want to impose blanket restrictions again, or think it would be necessary.
The UK's National Statistician, Prof Sir Ian Diamond also said on Sunday that there had been no uptick in cases since lockdown measures had been eased but warned the nation would need to be vigilant come the autumn.
Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (CMO), and Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific advisor (GSCA) have both expressed concern that the
damage from lockdown could be severe.
The report came to light after
Sir Patrick told MPs at the Science and Technology Select Committee last week that calculations had been made to predict the number of deaths caused by the effects of lockdown, which was announced on March 23.
The report produced in the following weeks warned there could be 500 more suicides during the first wave, and between 600 and 12,000 more deaths per year resulting from a recession which had a significant impact on GDP.
They also forecast around 20 more deaths this year through domestic violence, and an increase in the number of accidents at home - in the ‘low tens.’ In total, under a worst case scenario, around quarter of a million people would die because of the pandemic response.
The figures were based on 75 per cent of elective care being cancelled over six months without significant reprioritisation when things returned to normal.
The number of elective hospital appointments dropped to around a quarter of usual levels in March and April and had only recovered to around half by the beginning of July.
Charities have increasingly warned that delaying diagnosis, pausing surgery and postponing treatment is a
‘ticking time bomb’ which will cause long-term harm.
Figures released by Cancer Research UK today show that as of May 30, there were more than 180,000 people in England waiting for an endoscopy - a rise of 44 per cent from the same time in 2019.
And around 2.3 million fewer tests that help diagnose cancer have taken place since lockdown compared to the same time last year, and 51 per cent more people are waiting for colonoscopies.
Michelle Mitchell, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, said: “Covid-19 has had a devastating impact on cancer patients and services across the UK.
“In the early weeks of lockdown urgent referrals plummeted, screening programmes were paused, surgeries were cancelled, clinical trials were put on hold, and existing health inequalities were exacerbated.
“It’s now more crucial than ever that the Government works closely with the NHS to ensure it has the staff and equipment it needs to clear the mounting backlog and get services back on track before this situation gets even worse – especially in the event of a second wave.”
The report points out that nearly 500,000 people would have died from coronavirus if the virus had been allowed to run through the population unchecked. And there would have been more than a million non-Covid deaths resulting from missed treatment if the health service had been overwhelmed in dealing with the pandemic.
