Inflation is currently 0.6% and likely to fall further next month which is the trigger point for the January fares increase.
So if there is an increase it will be tiny, but the government might scrap it completely.
It also means salaries aren't going to increase much either.
Scotland and Wales have different rules.
0.6% is the current level of CPI. However, it's RPI (which runs at 1.1% currently) that has been used as a reference point for fare increases for many years now. It conveniently
just so happens that RPI is almost always higher.
The percentages used reflect price changes over the preceding 12 months so unless the pandemic has dramatically reduced prices since last year (in most cases things have simply become unavailable, or gone up in fact) then I don't see that RPI will necessarily be lower next month.
I would be highly surprised if fares didn't rise. Ministers could pass it off with the old chestnut that it means passengers are paying for more of the cost of running the railway - although it looks like fares will be small change in comparison to costs for the foreseeable future. Or they could even say that are raising fares to prevent overcrowding and thus social distancing being impossible.
There are any number of things they can use to explain it away, and with probably the lowest percentage of the population now using the railways since the railways began, it will quickly be swept under the carpet for another Covid "breaking news" item.
The real reason for any rise will probably be because a freeze, whilst perhaps viable for one year, means that future revenue is effectively indefinitely cut by whatever percentage the fares fail to rise rise by. This takes above inflation rises to even out - as are now scheduled for TfL.
As for staff salary rises, don't underestimate the thick headedness of some of the unions there. They will no doubt demand concessions, likely including pay rises, because of the "heroic effort" they put into serving the nation during the crisis or somesuch drivel. They'll no doubt be prepared to strike if they don't get such a rise. The fact that salaries for most staff are already well in excess of those in other countries and railway systems, let alone similarly qualified jobs in the UK, is irrelevant to them.
