How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[BJames]

The main issue is that the COVID alert level system is UK-wide, not specific the devolved administrations.

True, but Sturgeon's power is over the devolved administration. To be clear, I live in London and I think Scotland's restrictions should be less stringent than ours. Perhaps she's trying to follow Jacinda Ardern's path - it's a bit late unfortunately, given the state of the economy.

 

[BJames]

You can’t forget there was a sharp increase of...wait for it...18 cases on Friday. According to Sturgeon that was a source of concern - a total of around 0.000003% of the population testing positive in one day. It’s terrifying that she is so concerned by it.
According to today’s statistics (https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/) there are just over 300 people hospitalised in the whole country - if that’s risking the virus going out of control, then NHS capacity is the issue, not Covid itself. (It should be said as well that these are all in and around Glasgow, Edinburgh and Aberdeen - nowhere largely rural)
Any sensible person would ease the restrictions considering the level of infections we have, but unfortunately that doesn’t seem to be Sturgeon and she seems to enjoy the power she has.

Indeed, these are miniscule numbers and it makes it almost certain that you won't come into contact with someone with Covid-19 going about your daily life.

 

[Journeyman]

Indeed, these are miniscule numbers and it makes it almost certain that you won't come into contact with someone with Covid-19 going about your daily life.

Absolutely. Community transmission in Scotland has effectively ceased, case numbers that small can surely be dealt with using contact tracing and local isolations/lockdowns.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Absolutely. Community transmission in Scotland has effectively ceased, case numbers that small can surely be dealt with using contact tracing and local isolations/lockdowns.

And mandatory self-isolation (or maybe Government controlled isolation) of travellers from England.

Whatever you think of her, it absolutely makes sense and she really has to do it. The only other options are (a) that England follows the eradication path (requiring another lockdown), or (b) she gives up hard-won gains.

As I've said many times I'd far rather have long distance/international travel restricted but no restrictions on my daily life than I would distancing to continue long-term.

 

[takno]

And mandatory self-isolation (or maybe Government controlled isolation) of travellers from England.

Whatever you think of her, it absolutely makes sense and she really has to do it. The only other options are (a) that England follows the eradication path (requiring another lockdown), or (b) she gives up hard-won gains.

As I've said many times I'd far rather have long distance/international travel restricted but no restrictions on my daily life than I would distancing to continue long-term.

Whatever you think of her, if she tries it she might find that public health becomes a reserved matter overnight

 

[Bletchleyite]

Whatever you think of her, if she tries it she might find that public health becomes a reserved matter overnight

If that happens, given Scotland's success compared with England's, you can be sure a messy divorce will not be far off, e.g. with a unilateral declaration of independence and potentially sectarian terrorism. And would Bozza really want to be the PM that presided over the destruction of the Union?

So she'll be allowed to do what she likes.

 

[birchesgreen]

Johnson would probably welcome it, what better way to regain support in Eng-er-land by declaring war on the rebellious scots?

 

[philosopher]

And mandatory self-isolation (or maybe Government controlled isolation) of travellers from England.

Whatever you think of her, it absolutely makes sense and she really has to do it. The only other options are (a) that England follows the eradication path (requiring another lockdown), or (b) she gives up hard-won gains.

As I've said many times I'd far rather have long distance/international travel restricted but no restrictions on my daily life than I would distancing to continue long-term.

The problem with eliminination is I just do not think it is feasible, it only takes a few people to break the rules and the subsequent new cases to go unnoticed and you have a new outbreak. in Australia a couple of months ago, they must have thought they were close to eliminating the virus as they only had a few cases a day like Scotland. Then a few people breaking the rules such as security guards sleeping with guests in a quarantine hotel in Melbourne and a few weeks later, there are several hundred cases a day and Melbourne has to be locked down again.

If Australia, which is a remote island contintent can’t do it, then the prospects for Scotland, which shares a land border with England and is quite close to European mainland do not look great.

 

[Huntergreed]

And mandatory self-isolation (or maybe Government controlled isolation) of travellers from England.

Whatever you think of her, it absolutely makes sense and she really has to do it. The only other options are (a) that England follows the eradication path (requiring another lockdown), or (b) she gives up hard-won gains.

As I've said many times I'd far rather have long distance/international travel restricted but no restrictions on my daily life than I would distancing to continue long-term.

This is completely impractical and, I’m afraid, isn’t going to happen, as logical as it may be.

What about those who live in one country and work in the other? There’s many of these people in my region.

What about those who live in Scotland and have family in England, would this simply not be permitted without quarantine?

What about the hundreds of lorry/train drivers who move cargo between the two, how would they stop this and still keep the countries running?

How on Earth is it enforceable? Are you suggesting a full stop and border checks on WCML, ECML and GSW services, along with full check points on the B7076, M6, B6318, A68, B6352, B6396, B6350, A698, B6470, B6461, A6105 and A1, along with the countless small country roads? And what about people finding ways to just “walk across”, would this have to be policed too?

Boris has control over the matter, and since he has dismissed it as “nonsense”, I can’t see it happening.

 

[AM9]

I notice that Level 3 is classed as Epidemic rather than Pandemic

That is because the alert levels relate only to the UK, (as the chart above says). An 'epidemic' is an outbreak of a disease that affects an area, region or country, which in the context of the UK government's means that the alert states are concerning an epidemic.
A 'pandemic' is an epidemic on an international scale that affects more than one country and maybe one or more continents. As far as the UK alert states are concerned, it is irrelevant whether it is an epidemic or a pandemic. The rules for entering/leaving the jurisdiction of the UK rules are covered elsewhere where the state of the Pandemic is relevant.

 

[Class 33]

With how incredibly low and almost non-existent the number of new cases and deaths in Scotland are now, it is surely now time to scrap all this social distancing and compulsory mask wearing nonsense. Nicola Sturgeon can't keep it like this for months on end, or even indefintely. Now is the time for the people of Scotland to get back to normal.

In ENGLAND, well the number of daily deaths are getting pretty low now(85 yesterday) and are continuing to fall and fall now as the weeks go on. The number of cases though still isn't really that low, and hopefully we can get these down a fair bit over the coming weeks and months. But within a couple of months now, I think surely we should be seeing the daily deaths down to consistently sub 50. And by then, we really need to scrap this hugely restrictive social distancing, so the people of this country can start getting back to normal properly and to start to rebuild the catastrophic damage to the UK economy this lockdown and pro-longed social distancing guidance has caused. We just can't go on for months and months or even years on end like this!!! But sadly I think the government is going to drag this on and on and on. I think in 6 months time this nonsense will still be going on, and we'll still be hearing "Social distancing" and "Socially distanced" umpteen times on the news. Whenever I see anyone from the government being interviewed on the TV news, I haven't seen one of them yet mention that they're looking at scrapping social distancing in the near future! They seem to think that we must keep up social distancing "for many months to come" or "for a very long time yet". They just don't seem to be worried about the catastrophic damage it is doing to the economy!

 

[scotrail158713]

I’d say it’s a positive move from the Scottish government today as they announce social distancing isn’t necessary between pupils in primary and secondary schools. Hopefully this is the beginning of scrapping it full stop.

Coronavirus: 'No physical distancing' needed for school pupils

Physical distancing rules may apply to staff but not pupils when Scotland's schools reopen in August.

www.bbc.co.uk

Pupils will not have to physically distance when Scotland's schools return in August, but teachers will, new advice to the government has suggested.
Ministers have set a target for schools to reopen in full from 11 August.
A new report from advisors said "no distancing" should be required between pupils in primary or secondary schools.
But it said staff should stay 2m (6ft 6in) apart from each other, and put on face coverings when coming into closer contact with children.
It is also recommended that "higher risk" group activities like assemblies, choirs and gym and drama classes should not be reintroduced immediately.
Education Secretary John Swinney said the advice would "inform the way schools can reopen safely".
Talks are being held between ministers, councils, parent groups and teachers representatives to study how to reopen schools in full in August.
A report from the government's advisory sub-group on education said the "balance of evidence" suggested that physical distancing requirements imposed elsewhere in society would not be necessary between school pupils.
It noted that only 151 of the 18,365 coronavirus cases confirmed in Scotland had been in people aged under 15, and that "the role of children in transmission [of the virus] appears to be limited, both between children and from children to adults".
However the group said 2m distancing "should remain in place wherever possible between adults, and between adults and children who are not from the same household".
They said face coverings "are not required for most children", or adults who can maintain a physical distance - but added that "where adults cannot keep a 2m distance, are interacting face-to-face and for about 15 minutes or more, face coverings should be worn".
The report comes as Scotland's Children's Commissioner warned of a looming "children's rights emergency", citing "grave concerns" about the long-term impact of the pandemic and the lockdown on young people.
The government's advisory paper said teachers "should be provided with support and backup in how to assess the meet the needs of children who have experienced neglect during the period of school closures".
They said priority should be given to reintroducing services which "particularly benefit children who are more vulnerable", such as breakfast clubs and outreach work.
'Zero tolerance'
The report contains a series of warnings about the possible resurgence of the virus, and safety measures which should be put in place - with advice that "hand washing/sanitising should be required for everyone on every entry to the school".
They said there should be;
■ "as close as possible to zero tolerance of symptoms" of Covid-19
■ minimal sharing of equipment, books and toys
■ and efforts to "avoid large gatherings"
This means pupils will likely be kept to the same smaller groups for the duration of the school day, while the advice says "collective activities that cross classes and age groups" should only be reintroduced "incrementally".
A second paper from the group examined school transport, saying dedicated school buses should be treated as "an extension of the school estate" but that parents and pupils should seek to walk or cycle if possible.
Mr Swinney said the papers would help inform how to reopen schools safely "if infection rates continue to remain low".
He added: "We are considering this advice as we develop comprehensive guidance which will give confidence to our school communities that the safety and wellbeing of children, young people and staff is ensured as we welcome them back.
"Ensuring the highest quality education for our young people, in a safe environment, must be a priority for us all and I know that everyone is committed to make sure that children's education is not adversely affected in the longer term."

 

[Jamesrob637]

With how incredibly low and almost non-existent the number of new cases and deaths in Scotland are now, it is surely now time to scrap all this social distancing and compulsory mask wearing nonsense. Nicola Sturgeon can't keep it like this for months on end, or even indefintely. Now is the time for the people of Scotland to get back to normal.

In ENGLAND, well the number of daily deaths are getting pretty low now(85 yesterday) and are continuing to fall and fall now as the weeks go on. The number of cases though still isn't really that low, and hopefully we can get these down a fair bit over the coming weeks and months. But within a couple of months now, I think surely we should be seeing the daily deaths down to consistently sub 50. And by then, we really need to scrap this hugely restrictive social distancing, so the people of this country can start getting back to normal properly and to start to rebuild the catastrophic damage to the UK economy this lockdown and pro-longed social distancing guidance has caused. We just can't go on for months and months or even years on end like this!!! But sadly I think the government is going to drag this on and on and on. I think in 6 months time this nonsense will still be going on, and we'll still be hearing "Social distancing" and "Socially distanced" umpteen times on the news. Whenever I see anyone from the government being interviewed on the TV news, I haven't seen one of them yet mention that they're looking at scrapping social distancing in the near future! They seem to think that we must keep up social distancing "for many months to come" or "for a very long time yet". They just don't seem to be worried about the catastrophic damage it is doing to the economy!

We have now seen a double-digit figure on every day apart from a Tuesday, which could be next week or could be the following week. Obviously Sundays and Mondays are now very low - think Monday was barely ten. I think as soon as the seven-day rolling average falls below 50-60, social distancing should be scrapped in places where it simply isn't viable anymore. It actually makes sense in some, but a limited number of, environments, albeit at only a metre maximum.

 

[Class 33]

85 deaths yesterday. 66 deaths today. These deaths are really coming down this week. Very encouraging and promising. Looks like we could get a WEEKDAY with sub 50 deaths within the next week now, possibly even tomorrow. Looking very likely that by mid September, the 7 day rolling average for deaths should be very low, and social distancing really ought to be scrapped altogether by 1st October. By then we would have to put up with nearly SEVEN MONTHS of this disruptive and restrictive social distancing. Time to call it a day with that nonsense and get things back to normal for everyone again!

 

[Jamesrob637]

85 deaths yesterday. 66 deaths today. These deaths are really coming down this week. Very encouraging and promising. Looks like we could get a WEEKDAY with sub 50 deaths within the next week now, possibly even tomorrow. Looking very likely that by mid September, the 7 day rolling average for deaths should be very low, and social distancing really ought to be scrapped altogether by 1st October. By then we would have to put up with nearly SEVEN MONTHS of this disruptive and restrictive social distancing. Time to call it a day with that nonsense and get things back to normal for everyone again!

One metre in places from September at least. You're quite right: today wasn't as much of a decrease on yesterday, as yesterday was on Tuesday, but tomorrow and/or Saturday should be in the 50s or lower. We have already had a sub-50 Tuesday to Saturday: that being last Friday (10th).

However, it's next week and especially Tuesday we need to begin to focus on, as that'll be two and a bit weeks since many areas of hospitality reopened.

 

[al78]

And what about people finding ways to just “walk across”, would this have to be policed too?

Checkpoint at the end of the Pennine way?

 

[talldave]

85 deaths yesterday. 66 deaths today. These deaths are really coming down this week. Very encouraging and promising. Looks like we could get a WEEKDAY with sub 50 deaths within the next week now, possibly even tomorrow. Looking very likely that by mid September, the 7 day rolling average for deaths should be very low, and social distancing really ought to be scrapped altogether by 1st October. By then we would have to put up with nearly SEVEN MONTHS of this disruptive and restrictive social distancing. Time to call it a day with that nonsense and get things back to normal for everyone again!

Imagine how low they'll be by 24th July when pointless mask wearing kicks in.

Sadly I stand to lose a bet with my other half if social distancing is still here at the end of the year. Annoyingly I based my bet on the government taking sane decisions based on infection rates. Now we're into irrational rules imposed for no logical reason I may lose out!

 

[Enthusiast]

Out of that whole long post, you mention only two businesses that have actually closed permanently due to lockdown. Both restaurants, a trade that is in decline as people increasingly turn to deliveroo type services.

The restaurants I mentioned were not in decline. They were always very busy, neither did takeaways or deliveries and were not threatened by "Deliveroo" or similar. It's a small High Street and two businesses permanently lost with undoubtedly more to come is more than enough. The hospitality businesses that remain (both in my town and elsewhere) will struggle badly. I'm sorry to say that "only" two businesses is just the iceberg.

 

[Non Multi]

85 deaths yesterday. 66 deaths today. These deaths are really coming down this week. Very encouraging and promising. Looks like we could get a WEEKDAY with sub 50 deaths within the next week now, possibly even tomorrow. Looking very likely that by mid September, the 7 day rolling average for deaths should be very low, and social distancing really ought to be scrapped altogether by 1st October. By then we would have to put up with nearly SEVEN MONTHS of this disruptive and restrictive social distancing. Time to call it a day with that nonsense and get things back to normal for everyone again!

October is the start of cold and flu season! Hopefully Prof. Beda Stadler is correct in his assumption that Covid-19 turns into just another common cold virus. Unfortunately I expect all measures to be in place until the most vulnerable are vaccinated.

 

[Journeyman]

The restaurants I mentioned were not in decline. They were always very busy, neither did takeaways or deliveries and were not threatened by "Deliveroo" or similar. It's a small High Street and two businesses permanently lost with undoubtedly more to come is more than enough. The hospitality businesses that remain (both in my town and elsewhere) will struggle badly. I'm sorry to say that "only" two businesses is just the iceberg.

Yeah, and the fact that it's "only two businesses" will comfort the owners and employees, I'm sure...

 

[Mag_seven]

The restaurants I mentioned were not in decline. They were always very busy, neither did takeaways or deliveries and were not threatened by "Deliveroo" or similar. It's a small High Street and two businesses permanently lost with undoubtedly more to come is more than enough. The hospitality businesses that remain (both in my town and elsewhere) will struggle badly. I'm sorry to say that "only" two businesses is just the iceberg.

Yes I do find it frustrating when people constantly argue that businesses that won't return as a result of COVID, "were going out of business anyway" and that the lockdown/social distancing measures merely "accelerated the process". That might be the case for some but it is certainly not the case for all.

 

[Class 33]

Just read on the Mirror website that one of the items in Boris's speech tomorrow is to set out a "roadmap" of getting staff back to the office over the next 9 month. I hope this isn't a clue that social distancing won't be completely scrapped until next April??!!

 

[Huntergreed]

Just read on the Mirror website that one of the items in Boris's speech tomorrow is to set out a "roadmap" of getting staff back to the office over the next 9 month. I hope this isn't a clue that social distancing won't be completely scrapped until next April??!!

Is this the same mirror that called the disease 'codi-19' in one of their articles and that makes completely uneducated speculations which are normally completely wrong? I wouldn't worry too much about this, may as well predict that everyone has to wear bright yellow hats, this has about as much basis as what they say.

We need some specific criteria for scrapping masks and distancing (I get the feeling that Boris wants this but Whitty won't be clear with him on it). Who knows what to expect though? He'll probably come up with it whilst singing in the shower tomorrow morning and then have Whitty and Vallance, his 'bodyguards', next to him saying that 'things are here to stay for now'. Just the usual.

 

[Richard Scott]

Yes I do find it frustrating when people constantly argue that businesses that won't return as a result of COVID, "were going out of business anyway" and that the lockdown/social distancing measures merely "accelerated the process". That might be the case for some but it is certainly not the case for all.

Plenty of Theatres were doing nicely enough before all of this and lots of people in that industry have already lost their jobs, imagine many won't return.

 

[philosopher]

Yes I do find it frustrating when people constantly argue that businesses that won't return as a result of COVID, "were going out of business anyway" and that the lockdown/social distancing measures merely "accelerated the process". That might be the case for some but it is certainly not the case for all.

I do think a lot of the really affected industries were doing reasonably well before all this. Coffeeshops seemed to be booming before all this, however their business model was somewhat reliant on commuters and office workers. Commuters and office workers are in very short supply at the moment and it seems they may never return to the same levels. So unless these coffeeshops can find a new market quick, they may flip from growth to decline. Obviously coffee shops in local neighbourhoods could benefit, but I doubt it will offset the decline in city centres.

Gyms are another business that seemed to be doing well previously. Now that many may have bought their own fitness equipment they may not come back. Hence their growth may have stalled or reversed because of all this.

The longer social distancing goes on, the more permanent these changes to people’s behaviour will be and hence the more trouble these industries will be in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The restaurants I mentioned were not in decline. They were always very busy, neither did takeaways or deliveries and were not threatened by "Deliveroo" or similar. It's a small High Street and two businesses permanently lost with undoubtedly more to come is more than enough. The hospitality businesses that remain (both in my town and elsewhere) will struggle badly. I'm sorry to say that "only" two businesses is just the iceberg.

"Deliveroo" is served by restaurants. If your food is any good, people will order it from there, so in principle it will make you more, not less, custom (and at the moment most of it is full price). If your food is rubbish, well, that's why you're having trouble. And if you didn't do delivery/takeaway during lockdown, well, you were very silly indeed.

 

[takno]

"Deliveroo" is served by restaurants. If your food is any good, people will order it from there, so in principle it will make you more, not less, custom (and at the moment most of it is full price). If your food is rubbish, well, that's why you're having trouble. And if you didn't do delivery/takeaway during lockdown, well, you were very silly indeed.

People will order your food from deliveroo if it's any good once it's been packed in tubs, humped halfway across town on a cyclist's back, dished up half-heartedly by the customer themselves and eaten on a lap in front of the telly.

You'll also have to learn a whole variety of new marketing techniques and pay around 30% of (inevitably lower) prices you charge in platform fees. It's basically a completely different business that happens to share a kitchen.

 

[Belperpete]

Yes I do find it frustrating when people constantly argue that businesses that won't return as a result of COVID, "were going out of business anyway" and that the lockdown/social distancing measures merely "accelerated the process". That might be the case for some but it is certainly not the case for all.

I cannot see any post where anyone has said that all those businesses closing "were going out of business anyway". I certainly didn't. But undoubtedly the majority are.

Theatre is a business that has been in decline for decades, with a steady drip feed of closures. The big council supported theatre in my local city went bankrupt only a few years back.

I personally won't be lamenting the loss of any of the coffee chains that seem to have taken over our High Streets. Hopefully most people will have realised just how much they were spending for so little.

I noticed on the news last night that there has been a massive increase in the number of IT jobs being advertised since the lockdown began. As some industries die off, so others expand. That is the way of life. Covid is just accelerating the pace of change.

 

[Belperpete]

People will order your food from deliveroo if it's any good once it's been packed in tubs, humped halfway across town on a cyclist's back, dished up half-heartedly by the customer themselves and eaten on a lap in front of the telly.

You'll also have to learn a whole variety of new marketing techniques and pay around 30% of (inevitably lower) prices you charge in platform fees. It's basically a completely different business that happens to share a kitchen.

Any business that can't adapt is bound to die sooner or later. And any restaurant that can't adapt its menu to changing customer demand is surely doomed. All the restaurants near me have either adopted deliveroo, or their own take-out service, and one is even supplying groceries too. All seem to be surviving, by adapting to changing circumstances.

 

[Class 33]

Is this the same mirror that called the disease 'codi-19' in one of their articles and that makes completely uneducated speculations which are normally completely wrong? I wouldn't worry too much about this, may as well predict that everyone has to wear bright yellow hats, this has about as much basis as what they say.

We need some specific criteria for scrapping masks and distancing (I get the feeling that Boris wants this but Whitty won't be clear with him on it). Who knows what to expect though? He'll probably come up with it whilst singing in the shower tomorrow morning and then have Whitty and Vallance, his 'bodyguards', next to him saying that 'things are here to stay for now'. Just the usual.

Yes I know the press don't always get things right. But as well as the Mirror, some of the other press are also reporting about the 9 month plan to get people back to work, and that social distancing will still remain for some time yet. It's not looking too good. Will be absolutely ridiculous if we still have to put up with this disruptive and restrictive social distancing for another 9 months yet! How can we possibly get the economy going again properly with social distancing restrictions still in place?

If Chris Whitty is alongside Boris at this press conference at 11am, I can bet that he'll be saying something like "We still need to keep up social distancing for many months to come yet.".

I'll be VERY pleasantly surprised and happy if social distancing is scrapped completely before the end of this year. Anyone here have any confidence that social distancing WILL be scrapped completely by the end of this year?