Coronavirus: How scared should we be?

[adc82140]

Thank you. Couldn't have put it better. I won't tell them how to lead their lives, in return they shouldn't tell me how to live mine.

 

[Skymonster]

There are people I know who are actually planning to boycott pubs, public transport and the hospitality industry purely because they genuinely believe they are 'trying to kill them' and 'don't want to sacrifice their family to the government' (that's what I've been told by someone anyway). It's beyond crazy!

The only way some of these folks are going to be jerked back into reality is forcing them to face a choice between returning to normal or losing their jobs and having to cope on universal credit.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

The only way some of these folks are going to be jerked back into reality is forcing them to face a choice between returning to normal or losing their jobs and having to cope on universal credit.

mmm, a rude awakening awaits some people.

In terms of universal credit, 6 months of furlough will simply be 'pain delayed' in so many cases.

 

[43066]

The only way some of these folks are going to be jerked back into reality is forcing them to face a choice between returning to normal or losing their jobs and having to cope on universal credit.

That’s exactly what needs to happen. Several hospitality businesses near me have chosen to remain closed, despite that sector supposedly being reopened, to great fanfare. I can only assume they’re better off remaining closed and continuing to rely on government assistance, while it’s still available.

Furlough needs to be stopped immediately, in my view. It’s too much of a cushy number. People need to pay their own way or face the consequences.

 

[Scrotnig]

That’s exactly what needs to happen. Several hospitality businesses near me have chosen to remain closed, despite that sector supposedly being reopened, to great fanfare. I can only assume they’re better off remaining closed and continuing to rely on government assistance, while it’s still available.

Furlough needs to be stopped immediately, in my view. It’s too much of a cushy number. People need to pay their own way or face the consequences.

In fairness some establishments are treading a cautious path and want to see how the first few weeks pan out for 'early adopters' to help guide them on how to do it.
Also for some businesses running with reduced capacity is worse than not running at all at the moment. So it's a fine balancing act.
So in terms of businesses, it was the government that shut off their source of income and are now imposing restrictions that make some businesses non-viable. It's right that support should continue for now.

As for furlough, that needs reviewing as some people are clearly taking the mickey. But there's still a need for it, at this time. Here in Leicester everone is still forced to stay closed indefinitely, yet in a few weeks businesses here are expected to start contributing to furlough on the basis that they are trading again - yet they are not. The government is clearly planning to punish this city for being a completely Labour area. We're expendable.

 

[Yew]

Indeed, I'd not support immediate cessation, but perhaps requiring some more Justification for keeping an employee furloughed would be reasonable

 

[Skymonster]

As for furlough, that needs reviewing as some people are clearly taking the mickey. But there's still a need for it, at this time. Here in Leicester everone is still forced to stay closed indefinitely, yet in a few weeks businesses here are expected to start contributing to furlough on the basis that they are trading again - yet they are not. The government is clearly planning to punish this city for being a completely Labour area. We're expendable.

I'm not sure its a Conservative versus Labour thing, but what I am sure about is that if the Government locks down an area I believe it is duty-bound to look after the residents and businesses that suffer through no fault of their own.

What should happen is those who can return to normal should be told to do so (or lose their income), and the savings made from not having to support them in furlough should be directed to the needs of those in localised lockdowns.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The government is clearly planning to punish this city for being a completely Labour area. We're expendable.

Nonsense.

Take a look at this curve of infections:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

It is completely different from any other city I cared to look up - it's almost as if there was no lockdown.

Compare it to Nottingham, which is relatively nearby:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

I don't know why this was the case but it does seem, genuinely, that Leicester is exceptional.

 

[Scrotnig]

I'm not sure its a Conservative versus Labour thing, but what I am sure about is that if the Government locks down an area I believe it is duty-bound to look after the residents and businesses that suffer through no fault of their own.

Well I can tell you that in Leicester we have been completely and utterly abandoned. I'd be amazed if they even remember to carry out the scheduled review on the 18th. The government are not even slightly interested.

It is a punishment. It's clear there was some sort of spat going on between Hancock and our disgraced elected mayor.

 

[Scrotnig]

Nonsense.

Take a look at this curve of infections:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

It is completely different from any other city I cared to look up - it's almost as if there was no lockdown.

Compare it to Nottingham, which is relatively nearby:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

I don't know why this was the case but it does seem, genuinely, that Leicester is exceptional.

Right but why is there no additional support for the affected area? That's my point. We are just being left for the city's economy to completely collapse. There will be nothing left within weeks.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Right but why is there no additional support for the affected area? That's my point. We are just being left for the city's economy to completely collapse. There will be nothing left within weeks.

Furlough is still available, hopefully the situation will be resolved before that reduces in scope.

I did have a conspiracy view about Leicester myself, namely that it was being used "pour encourager les autres", but once I saw that graph I was quite shocked - I don't know what's different about it, but it is clearly very different to the curve in any other part of the UK I've cared to look at - as I said it's almost as if the lockdown we did have never happened there, and I'd love to know why.

 

[adc82140]

One word. Sweatshops.

 

[MikeWM]

Nonsense.

Take a look at this curve of infections:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

It is completely different from any other city I cared to look up - it's almost as if there was no lockdown.

Compare it to Nottingham, which is relatively nearby:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

I don't know why this was the case but it does seem, genuinely, that Leicester is exceptional.

More testing? They opened a lot of extra testing centers in Leicester; an increase in cases isn't entirely surprising.

In any event the Leicester 'outbreak' appears to have peaked of its own accord on June 24th, well before a 'local lockdown' was mooted. And the 'ramp-up' in cases doesn't seem to have corresponded with any increase in deaths, which somewhat bolsters the idea that it is less severe cases that are being found.

eg. https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1280136255834071041

 

[Bletchleyite]

One word. Sweatshops.

Do they only exist in Leicester, though? Oldham was quoted, and I believe that has similar factories, but its curve is much more like the rest of the country with a March-April peak, just running a little higher than most places. Leicester is weird in the extreme - the peak was mid June and is only just starting to drop.

 

[Richard Scott]

Right but why is there no additional support for the affected area? That's my point. We are just being left for the city's economy to completely collapse. There will be nothing left within weeks.

Try living in Wales where its own Government is hellbent on self destruction.

 

[Scrotnig]

Furlough is still available, hopefully the situation will be resolved before that reduces in scope.

It reduces in scope in three weeks. The lockdown cannot be lifted for at least another week and a half, and frankly it's unlikely to be. We have months of this nonsense coming up. The government are not interested, in fact I'd go further and say they want this city to completely collapse as a warning to others for not doing as they're told.

 

[Scrotnig]

Do they only exist in Leicester, though? Oldham was quoted, and I believe that has similar factories, but its curve is much more like the rest of the country with a March-April peak, just running a little higher than most places. Leicester is weird in the extreme - the peak was mid June and is only just starting to drop.

Leicester has by far the largest concentration of them in the whole of the country. It's been well known for years. Everyone knows the real cause of the prolem (badly run sweatshops) but nobody is allowed to say so. Even the mayor is saying sweatshops are definitely nothing whatsoever to do with it, but he won't tell us what is!

 

[MikeWM]

It reduces in scope in three weeks. The lockdown cannot be lifted for at least another week and a half, and frankly it's unlikely to be. We have months of this nonsense coming up. The government are not interested, in fact I'd go further and say they want this city to completely collapse as a warning to others for not doing as they're told.

I'm not so sure - the lovely Mr Hancock was happily pointing out yesterday how the infection rate was coming down (despite the fact it is far too soon for the 'local lockdown' to have achieved any such thing).

I suspect it will be lifted fairly quickly and trumpeted as a successful model of how to deal with local outbreaks. Which is less good for the rest of us, but would mean Leicester should be released fairly soon.

 

[Scrotnig]

I'm not so sure - the lovely Mr Hancock was happily pointing out yesterday how the infection rate was coming down (despite the fact it is far too soon for the 'local lockdown' to have achieved any such thing).

I suspect it will be lifted fairly quickly and trumpeted as a successful model of how to deal with local outbreaks. Which is less good for the rest of us, but would mean Leicester should be released fairly soon.

I hope you're right but I have no faith in the government and no faith in the mayor and council here. Both are an utter disgrace and it is shameful. Neither has any right to still be in office. Not that there are any appealling alternatives.

 

[Domh245]

One word. Sweatshops.

Unfortunately it isn't as simple as that. Whilst it's quite likely they played a part, it's also possible that other factors such as poorer compliance with the lockdown, multiple generations of family within the same house, etc.

The other major factor is the amount of testing done - if for whatever reason additional tests were carried out in Leicester that weren't elsewhere (a higher number of pillar 1 cases than most other LAs when that was all the Gov't were publishing drawing attention for example), then obviously more cases are going to be caught because of the asymptomatic cases that wouldn't have been tested otherwise. Indeed, the second peak of Leicester's outbreak corresponds quite well to the increase in testing capacity. I also recall a similar story about the outbreak in Anglesey, they had a day where suddenly there were a 100 new cases, not because it was spiralling out of control but because they tested every single worker at the factory. The lack of information about the number of tests carried out makes drawing these conclusions tricky

It is completely different from any other city I cared to look up

Kirklees, Sheffield, and Bradford make for interesting viewing (minor gripe with the presentation on the gov website though - they really shouldn't bring the 7 day average line all the way to the present given the typical time lag between sample date and reporting)

 

[Scrotnig]

It's worth noting that until at least mid May, if you wanted a test in Leicester, you had to go to Nottingham.

Even then the 'permanent' testing centre is on a park and ride site out on the far outskirts of the city. It's not all that accessible.

It was only when concerns started to be raised that additional mobile short term testing centres were set up. I think there are something like eight here now, possible more. So there's definitely been a LOT more testing going on.

 

[MikeWM]

It was only when concerns started to be raised that additional mobile short term testing centres were set up. I think there are something like eight here now, possible more. So there's definitely been a LOT more testing going on.

The rather counterproductive message would appear to be that you should avoid being tested unless you want your region to be locked down again! Not sure that's an entirely helpful idea for the Government to push.

 

[Scrotnig]

The rather counterproductive message would appear to be that you should avoid being tested unless you want your region to be locked down again! Not sure that's an entirely helpful idea for the Government to push.

Funnily enough I did wonder about that.

It's all such a big mess

 

[Skymonster]

One word. Sweatshops.

Really? Maybe. More research is needed. Here’s another postulation. Ethnic minorities have been shown to be more vulnerable to the virus, and Leicester has greater mixed ethnicity than most other UK cities...

 

[Scrotnig]

Really? Maybe. More research is needed. Here’s another postulation. Ethnic minorities have been shown to be more vulnerable to the virus, and Leicester has greater mixed ethnicity than most other UK cities...

They haven't been shown to be more likely to CATCH it though, it's that they are more likely to have a bad outcome statistically.

If you could see how some of these swetashops here work, you'd realise they can only be a big contributor to the problem. And that's before you look at all the other problems they cause - illegal wages, zero health and safety measures in place, appalling working conditions, in some cases associated appalling LIVING conditions.

That so many people in authority, who should know better, appear to to try to turn a blind eye to all this, is a shocking indictment of modern society.

 

[Freightmaster]

You have to wonder what kind of depressing and incredibly boring life these people aspire to lead, with no socialising, no travelling etc. Not much of a life at all!

This pandemic has revealed that the UK is absolutely riddled with joyless, judgemental, curtain twitching Victor Meldrew types!





MARK

 

[AdamWW]

I did have a conspiracy view about Leicester myself, namely that it was being used "pour encourager les autres", but once I saw that graph I was quite shocked - I don't know what's different about it, but it is clearly very different to the curve in any other part of the UK I've cared to look at - as I said it's almost as if the lockdown we did have never happened there, and I'd love to know why.

I uncharitably wondered the same, but it is very hard to imagine that the government would have chosen the timing of having this happen just as they were making a bit thing of opening up the country again.

Do they only exist in Leicester, though? Oldham was quoted, and I believe that has similar factories, but its curve is much more like the rest of the country with a March-April peak, just running a little higher than most places. Leicester is weird in the extreme - the peak was mid June and is only just starting to drop.

Leicester could have a similar risk to other places, but was less lucky.

If a certain type of factory has a high risk of transmission, then infections can suddenly blow up. But another identical factory can be fine if nobody brings it in in the first place.

Rather like several piles of highly inflammable material. Just because the one that someone chucks at match at is the only one that goes up in flames, it doesn't mean that the others weren't just as risky.

 

[Domh245]

They haven't been shown to be more likely to CATCH it though, it's that they are more likely to have a bad outcome statistically.

However, that does mean that more people are likely to show symptoms and then go for a test!

 

[Bikeman78]

Permanently wearing masks isn't a solution.

The lack of mask wearers in Wales, where they are not required, is a good indicator of how much they are disliked by the public at large.

 

[Bikeman78]

Yes it was one in 2,000 (or thereabouts) when I first read reports of Local Authorities narrowing roads to widen pavements.

In other words you could have a crush loaded 12 car train and there is a reasonable chance that no one on board would have the virus.