Should our lockdown have been harsher/stricter?

[MikeWM]

An excellent reminder of what actually happened in March, based on what scientists were saying at the time, and the released SAGE minutes (thanks to Simon Dolan's legal action):

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-lockdowns-founding-myth/

The contents of the SAGE documents are illuminating, but it is what is absent that is most revealing. There is no mention of a lockdown in any document until 18 March when there was an inconclusive discussion about locking down London. By that stage, Italy had been in lockdown for nine days. The impact of school closures, voluntary self-isolation and various forms of social distancing were analysed by SAGE throughout February and March. There is no record of a full lockdown being similarly discussed. The idea of banning the entire population from leaving the house without a reasonable excuse does not seem to have been seriously entertained.

...

According to the founding myth, the study published by Professor Neil Ferguson and colleagues at Imperial College on 16 March changed everything. Contrary to popular belief, the infamous study did not call for a full lockdown, nor did it model the effects of a full lockdown... Its social distancing recommendations were far from trivial and yet they seem modest after nine weeks of genuine lockdown (the authors anticipated most people still going to work, for example). The only time Ferguson and colleagues use the word ‘lockdown’ in the text is when they are making a distinction between their proposals and an actual lockdown.

Of course, the scientists may want to try to rewrite the history now, as they fear (probably with some justification) that they are now being setup as fall-guys by the government.

 

[MikeWM]

I must admit I noticed similar changes in habits & numbers of people out and about in West Yorkshire in the weeks leading up to the lockdown. If anywhere near correct, this analysis does suggest that the lockdown might actually not have had that greater an effect on the 'R' value as some have suggested, and that the simpler measures asked of us prior to that might actually have been the most effective. It will need a lot more examination, but I hope it isn't swept under the carpet as being inconvenient.

Indeed, humans on the whole are usually pretty sensible - who wants to catch a nasty virus, after all? There seems to be fairly good evidence (eg. from the Spectator article I quoted above, and the Bristol study that it links to) that the earlier rather minor behavioural changes would have been enough to bring things under control, without all the very nasty side-effects.

 

[Mag_seven]

I must admit I noticed similar changes in habits & numbers of people out and about in West Yorkshire in the weeks leading up to the lockdown. If anywhere near correct, this analysis does suggest that the lockdown might actually not have had that greater an effect on the 'R' value as some have suggested, and that the simpler measures asked of us prior to that might actually have been the most effective. It will need a lot more examination, but I hope it isn't swept under the carpet as being inconvenient.

There were lots of reports about quieter than normal streets and restaurants up and down the country round about the beginning of March. There were also reports of queues to use the sinks in gents toilets (for hand washing) which shows that people were by and large behaving sensibly.

 

[Puffing Devil]

An excellent reminder of what actually happened in March, based on what scientists were saying at the time, and the released SAGE minutes (thanks to Simon Dolan's legal action):

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-lockdowns-founding-myth/



Of course, the scientists may want to try to rewrite the history now, as they fear (probably with some justification) that they are now being setup as fall-guys by the government.

That would be the same Critic that Alistair Haimes also writes for? Both appear to be pushing a minimal intervention, no lockdown narrative.

Speaking of SAGE, would that be the same "independent" group that also counted Dominic Cummings as a member. Purely there to observe, of course?

 

[MikeWM]

That would be the same Critic that Alistair Haimes also writes for? Both appear to be pushing a minimal intervention, no lockdown narrative.

The facts and analysis they put forward seems credible to me. Nothing wrong with pushing a narrative if it is backed by facts. At least they should be considered until some issue shows their analysis to be wrong (particularly if taken in comparison with Neil Ferguson, who seems never to have made an accurate prediction in his life, and yet the media hang on his every word...)

Speaking of SAGE, would that be the same "independent" group that also counted Dominic Cummings as a member. Purely there to observe, of course?

I didn't - and wouldn't - call SAGE 'independent'. There's plenty of blame to go around...

 

[Skymonster]

An excellent reminder of what actually happened in March, based on what scientists were saying at the time, and the released SAGE minutes (thanks to Simon Dolan's legal action):

https://thecritic.co.uk/the-lockdowns-founding-myth/



Of course, the scientists may want to try to rewrite the history now, as they fear (probably with some justification) that they are now being setup as fall-guys by the government.

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

― George Orwell, 1984

 

[43066]

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

― George Orwell, 1984

Nail, meet head.

Best post on the thread.

 

[BananaRepublic]

Yep! It woz the Lizards wot did it !



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[43066]

Yep! It woz the Lizards wot did it !



.

Have you read the book?

You might find it illuminating. Those words, written in the 1940s, have never been more relevant than now when, in 2020, I’m going to be required to wear a mask when commuting from next week, based on junk science.

When you’ve finished Nineteen Eighty-Four, you should move on to Animal Farm (same author):

“All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”

Lockdown applies to all of us, but some of us don’t need to abide by it. Just ask Dominic Cummings!

 

[Skymonster]

Lockdown applies to all of us, but some of us don’t need to abide by it. Just ask Dominic Cummings!

Lockdown - doublespeak; essential travel - doublespeak

 

[43066]

Lockdown - doublespeak; essential travel - doublespeak

“Stay home to save lives”. Ie trash the economy, kill cancer patients and suffer immeasurable, premature deaths from the impending recession = doublethink.

The world has changed since Orwell’s day, but human beings haven’t, and neither has totalitarianism. That’s what he really understood, and was writing about.

We’re now experiencing a brand new flavour of it!

 

[Mogster]

There were lots of reports about quieter than normal streets and restaurants up and down the country round about the beginning of March. There were also reports of queues to use the sinks in gents toilets (for hand washing) which shows that people were by and large behaving sensibly.

For work I travelled from Wigan to Bristol on the WCML the second week of March. I remember it as the trains were full with people attending the Cheltenham Festival. I can confirm the queues for the hand wash sinks at the gents at Birmingham New Street. Touch screen info terminals were unavailable also. Signs were everywhere telling people to wash their hands and from my experience people were doing it. To say people weren’t following the advice is just wrong.

 

[Bantamzen]

Have you read the book?

You might find it illuminating. Those words, written in the 1940s, have never been more relevant than now when, in 2020, I’m going to be required to wear a mask when commuting from next week, based on junk science.

When you’ve finished Nineteen Eighty-Four, you should move on to Animal Farm (same author):

“All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.”

Lockdown applies to all of us, but some of us don’t need to abide by it. Just ask Dominic Cummings!

I've said many times, people should read that book, then apply it's context to today.

 

[MikeWM]

I've said many times, people should read that book, then apply it's context to today.

...though as a warning, not an inspiration! I fear some people may have done the latter.

On a related dystopian note, I only realised yesterday that (the film version of) 'V for Vendetta' is set in the year 2020!

 

[route101]

For work I travelled from Wigan to Bristol on the WCML the second week of March. I remember it as the trains were full with people attending the Cheltenham Festival. I can confirm the queues for the hand wash sinks at the gents at Birmingham New Street. Touch screen info terminals were unavailable also. Signs were everywhere telling people to wash their hands and from my experience people were doing it. To say people weren’t following the advice is just wrong.

I was in Edinburgh on the 16th of March , was really quiet that week, some shops had already shut. Trains were dead.

 

[hassaanhc]

There were lots of reports about quieter than normal streets and restaurants up and down the country round about the beginning of March. There were also reports of queues to use the sinks in gents toilets (for hand washing) which shows that people were by and large behaving sensibly.

Where I used to work (agency job lost as a direct result of these closures), the sink with the best hot water pressure had a big increase in usage! Even the ones that were almost similar in water pressure appeared to be ignored more in favour of that particular tap.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

No, but more like imposed at the same time as Italy - around the 10th or 11th of March. Johnson imposed it too late hence why the UK is now sadly the worst affected country in Europe. But also because we are large and have a huge population density, you know...

 

[The Ham]

No, but more like imposed at the same time as Italy - around the 10th or 11th of March. Johnson imposed it too late hence why the UK is now sadly the worst affected country in Europe. But also because we are large and have a huge population density, you know...

What type of population density are we talking about?

 

[SouthEastBuses]

What type of population density are we talking about?

London and South East England... we have the largest population density in Europe.

 

[Richard Scott]

No, but more like imposed at the same time as Italy - around the 10th or 11th of March. Johnson imposed it too late hence why the UK is now sadly the worst affected country in Europe. But also because we are large and have a huge population density, you know...

Worst country in Europe by our counting method - think ours is a little more honest than some others. Germany, for example, count a death from pneumonia as pneumonia whether or not caused by COVID-19 so won't show on their statistics. Not saying ours are empiric as doubt that's even possible. Anyway the media love running this country down so anything they can get their hands on to make us look bad they're going to do aren't they?

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Worst country in Europe by our counting method - think ours is a little more honest than some others. Germany, for example, count a death from pneumonia as pneumonia whether or not caused by COVID-19 so won't show on their statistics. Not saying ours are empiric as doubt that's even possible. Anyway the media love running this country down so anything they can get their hands on to make us look bad they're going to do aren't they?

Hmmm true. You have a good point, Germany (and I'd say Netherlands too) death rate may be as bad as ours but they prefer not to report in the media to make themselves look good.

 

[takno]

Worst country in Europe by our counting method - think ours is a little more honest than some others. Germany, for example, count a death from pneumonia as pneumonia whether or not caused by COVID-19 so won't show on their statistics. Not saying ours are empiric as doubt that's even possible. Anyway the media love running this country down so anything they can get their hands on to make us look bad they're going to do aren't they?

We're probably significantly going the other way, with situations where doctors in some circumstances are classifying all heart attacks as coronavirus deaths because it's a potential effect, and ignoring that people do tend to get heart attacks quite often, and are getting them even more because of lockdown. This is happening in other countries as well to an extent, and was certainly viewed by the Belgian government as a leading driver of of how they ended up where they are

 

[MikeWM]

We're probably significantly going the other way, with situations where doctors in some circumstances are classifying all heart attacks as coronavirus deaths because it's a potential effect, and ignoring that people do tend to get heart attacks quite often, and are getting them even more because of lockdown. This is happening in other countries as well to an extent, and was certainly viewed by the Belgian government as a leading driver of of how they ended up where they are

Plus one needs to take into account the very specific changes made to the death reporting system specifically in response to this specific virus, which are almost certainly inflating the figures.

(and, incidentally, completely remove all the safeguards that were put in place to prevent another Harold Shipman...)

 

[45107]

Worst country in Europe by our counting method - think ours is a little more honest than some others. Germany, for example, count a death from pneumonia as pneumonia whether or not caused by COVID-19 so won't show on their statistics. Not saying ours are empiric as doubt that's even possible. Anyway the media love running this country down so anything they can get their hands on to make us look bad they're going to do aren't they?

Prehaps a better measure is to look at 'excess deaths' in comparison to previous years average.
Whilst the number attributed to C19 may vary, the excess figure shows a how the pandemic (and associated illness) has been dealt with.

 

[MikeWM]

Prehaps a better measure is to look at 'excess deaths' in comparison to previous years average.
Whilst the number attributed to C19 may vary, the excess figure shows a how the pandemic (and associated illness) has been dealt with.

Generally true, yes, but in this particular case, given the terrible 'side-effects' of the way we have chosen to deal with this specific virus - missed cancer treatments, missed screenings, people presenting too late, suicides - then that number is going to be inflated beyond what can be attributed to the virus, possibly by quite a significant margin.

 

[takno]

Prehaps a better measure is to look at 'excess deaths' in comparison to previous years average.
Whilst the number attributed to C19 may vary, the excess figure shows a how the pandemic (and associated illness) has been dealt with.

Well yes, but if you're making the argument, as I increasingly am, that a lot more people will be killed by the terrible response than by the disease, then conflating them is a particular problem, and might keep us doing the wrong thing for even longer

 

[45107]

Generally true, yes, but in this particular case, given the terrible 'side-effects' of the way we have chosen to deal with this specific virus - missed cancer treatments, missed screenings, people presenting too late, suicides - then that number is going to be inflated beyond what can be attributed to the virus, possibly by quite a significant margin.

Which shows that the 'government' have completely failed in their responsibilities to manage - not the NHS or PHE or the scientists - the 'government' as they are supposed to lead. Other countries have somehow managed to contain the pandemic, not incurring the same level of excess deaths and are slowly re-opening their economies, with reduced numbers of new cases and fatalities.

 

[45107]

Well yes, but if you're making the argument, as I increasingly am, that a lot more people will be killed by the terrible response than by the disease, then conflating them is a particular problem, and might keep us doing the wrong thing for even longer

A lot more people have been killed due to the poor response. We failed to lock down early enough. Action earlier could (not 'would') have reduced the number of infections (and subsequent fatalities). It appears to have worked elsewhere (with the possible exception of the US and Brazil).
I see that figures today report a 20% drop in GDP for the UK. I have not seen any figures for other countries. How does our drop compare with others (or are we not allowed to make international comparisons until this is over)

 

[MikeWM]

Which shows that the 'government' have completely failed in their responsibilities to manage - not the NHS or PHE or the scientists - the 'government' as they are supposed to lead. Other countries have somehow managed to contain the pandemic, not incurring the same level of excess deaths and are slowly re-opening their economies, with reduced numbers of new cases and fatalities.

Hard to disagree with one word of that. I can't imagine anyone - whichever side of the lockdown etc. argument they may be on - being impressed, or even satisfied, with the performance of the UK government over the last few months.

 

[takno]

A lot more people have been killed due to the poor response. We failed to lock down early enough. Action earlier could (not 'would') have reduced the number of infections (and subsequent fatalities). It appears to have worked elsewhere (with the possible exception of the US and Brazil).
I see that figures today report a 20% drop in GDP for the UK. I have not seen any figures for other countries. How does our drop compare with others (or are we not allowed to make international comparisons until this is over)

Seriously, this response isn't getting the potential scale of the people who have been killed by the response. We could easily get over 100,000, and that's before we acknowledge that the huge scale nursing home deaths were largely caused by our panic.

If we'd stayed on the social distancing path we were on and not been panicked into the disastrous lockdown path by certain fantasticists at Imperial College then we could have saved tens of thousands of lives. Faced with the enormity of what they've caused, they appear to be doubling down on claims about how we should have done the wrong thing even earlier. Fool me once etc...