When will Scotland return to some sort of normal?

[scotrail158713]

I meant if there's a 5 mile limit then no point in opening hotels !

Ah ok. I definitely think the 5 mile limit will be gone by then - why would you try to restart tourism without letting people go further than 5 miles from home?

 

[leightonbd]

It now looks like phase 2 from next week and phase 3 from three weeks after (announced on 9th to start on 15th) - obvious caveat that the current positive trend continues. So more shops and activities, wider travel and some potential for holidays. But still, as I read it, with 2m distancing, which may deter some openings in practice.

Still, it’s a start and a more positive statement of intent than what was previously coming out of SG, which was very much small steps.

what happens if Scotland keeps driving the numbers down, but at 15 July numbers in the North of England are rising? Closed borders to stop an invasion of infectious Mancunians? You can’t enter Scotland unless you have reservation at one of the approved forms of holiday accommodation (camp sites, caravans, stand-alone self-catering)?

 

[scotrail158713]

what happens if Scotland keeps driving the numbers down, but at 15 July numbers in the North of England are rising? Closed borders to stop an invasion of infectious Mancunians? You can’t enter Scotland unless you have reservation at one of the approved forms of holiday accommodation (camp sites, caravans, stand-alone self-catering)?

I’m sure there’s some people who believe that’s exactly what should happen

 

[duncanp]

what happens if Scotland keeps driving the numbers down, but at 15 July numbers in the North of England are rising? Closed borders to stop an invasion of infectious Mancunians? You can’t enter Scotland unless you have reservation at one of the approved forms of holiday accommodation (camp sites, caravans, stand-alone self-catering)?

And what will happen if England does open her pubs on 4th July, and the pubs in Scotland are still closed then?

Boarding checks at Glasgow Central and Edinburgh Waverley on trains to England to stop hordes of thirsty Scotsmen going for a day on the p**s?

Perhaps people on the Kilmarnock and Dumfries line can show a ticket to Gretna Green at the boarding control, and then travel on to Carlisle using a Gretna - Carlisle day return which they purchased in advance.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’m sure there’s some people who believe that’s exactly what should happen

Will Oor Wullie convince Bozza to actually loosen for holidays in England later? The high number of cases at present in the North West and South West are a concern if they all get brought back to London again. Which is where everyone will go if they can't go to Scotland or Wales.

 

[adc82140]

There is no high number of cases in the NW or SW. They are just reducing slower than in other areas.

 

[applepie2100]

As someone who was born, raised and lives in Scotland it's very obvious to me that the approach taken by Nicola Sturgeon is not with the best interests of the Scottish people in mind, but rather with the best interests of the SNP in mind. It would seem that every step taken and every decision made has been done in a way to be seen to be different from and somehow better than Westminster. She has deliberately excluded advice from those best qualified to give it simply because they do not support the SNP. Indeed the advice she has been taken has been from a gynaecologist and a GP. She is happy to take monetary support from the UK government but not to provide it to areas such as local authorities who need it most.

To more directly answer the question posed by the OP, I believe that Scotland will only return to some sort of normal when Nicola Sturgeon believes that it best suits the SNP interests to do so.

 

[duncanp]

As someone who was born, raised and lives in Scotland it's very obvious to me that the approach taken by Nicola Sturgeon is not with the best interests of the Scottish people in mind, but rather with the best interests of the SNP in mind

.

I couldn't agree more.

The headline in today's edition of The National (the paper that supports an independent Scotland) was something along the lines of "..UK government delay to lockdown cost thousands of lives...".

Never mind that this is just the opinion of the thoroughly discredited Professor Pantsdown, (aka Neil Ferguson) and is not a universally accepted fact. It is also the case that the Scottish government could have imposed a lockdown earlier than the rest of the UK, if it had wanted to. They seem to just want to blame the UK government for anything that sounds bad.

Similarly with the decision to open the hospitality sector in Scotland from July 15th. (possibly) I can't help thinking that Nicola Sturgeon is waiting to see the effects of England opening their hospitality sector on July 4th. If things go well, she will decide that the time is right for Scotland to follow suit. If they don't, she will use it as another stick with which to beat the UK government.

I can't help thinking that Ms Sturgeon is enjoying doing things differently to the rest of the UK just for the sake of it.

 

[scotrail158713]

As someone who was born, raised and lives in Scotland it's very obvious to me that the approach taken by Nicola Sturgeon is not with the best interests of the Scottish people in mind, but rather with the best interests of the SNP in mind. It would seem that every step taken and every decision made has been done in a way to be seen to be different from and somehow better than Westminster. She has deliberately excluded advice from those best qualified to give it simply because they do not support the SNP. Indeed the advice she has been taken has been from a gynaecologist and a GP. She is happy to take monetary support from the UK government but not to provide it to areas such as local authorities who need it most.

To more directly answer the question posed by the OP, I believe that Scotland will only return to some sort of normal when Nicola Sturgeon believes that it best suits the SNP interests to do so.

To a certain extent I’d agree

It would seem that every step taken and every decision made has been done in a way to be seen to be different from and somehow better than Westminster.

This I certainly agree with. It goes all the way down to “route map” vs “road map” out of lockdown, and implementing a “track and protect” vs a “track and trace” system. Everyone knows they’re the same things, so why the petty name changes?

 

[6862]

Apparently R has dropped to 0.6 to 0.8 for Scotland. While I think there is an overemphasis on R (it's becoming apparent that the spread of this virus is not homogenous, so R is not the whole picture), I imagine this might give some hope that Scotland might start to remove some of its more restrictive measures sooner rather than later? According to the article on BBC News the big drop may be due to previous case numbers being overestimated.

 

[Djgr]

Apparently R has dropped to 0.6 to 0.8 for Scotland. While I think there is an overemphasis on R (it's becoming apparent that the spread of this virus is not homogenous, so R is not the whole picture), I imagine this might give some hope that Scotland might start to remove some of its more restrictive measures sooner rather than later? According to the article on BBC News the big drop may be due to previous case numbers being overestimated.

To be fair I'm not sure anyone has really considered the virus spread to be homogeneous for a long while. My gut feel is that R for people interacting regularly with hospitals/care homes is about 2.5 whilst for the general public it's about 0.2.

 

[6862]

To be fair I'm not sure anyone has really considered the virus spread to be homogeneous for a long while. My gut feel is that R for people interacting regularly with hospitals/care homes is about 2.5 whilst for the general public it's about 0.2.

From what I have seen the distinction is rarely made in reporting of the R value. For example when we were told a few weeks ago that R had dropped to 0.7-0.9, I didn't see any media mention of the fact that there is significant variation in R values between the community and care settings, although if you listened to what Whitty said, he mentioned there was a significantly higher level of transmission in care settings. The media seem to have latched onto the R value and are reporting it as if it is the same across all settings, thereby implying that the spread of the virus is homogenous.

 

[Huntergreed]

From what I have seen the distinction is rarely made in reporting of the R value. For example when we were told a few weeks ago that R had dropped to 0.7-0.9, I didn't see any media mention of the fact that there is significant variation in R values between the community and care settings, although if you listened to what Whitty said, he mentioned there was a significantly higher level of transmission in care settings. The media seem to have latched onto the R value and are reporting it as if it is the same across all settings, thereby implying that the spread of the virus is homogenous.

And the portrayal of the necessity of the lockdown is equally treated in this way. If 'R' crawls above one due to a rise in care settings, they would 'need' to lock the whole area down, close all other businesses, restrict transport etc. They seem to be thinking in a very binary way with regards to this. If the R is much lower in the community, surely this is a reasonable justification to open far more of the economy and schools than they have done, and start to undo the vast damage this is causing.

 

[takno]

And the portrayal of the necessity of the lockdown is equally treated in this way. If 'R' crawls above one due to a rise in care settings, they would 'need' to lock the whole area down, close all other businesses, restrict transport etc. They seem to be thinking in a very binary way with regards to this. If the R is much lower in the community, surely this is a reasonable justification to open far more of the economy and schools than they have done, and start to undo the vast damage this is causing.

It really grinds when they seem to expect some level of congratulation for deigning to announce that they will start reopening the hospitality sector in more than a month's time. I really don't think they understand either the science or the economic and social damage they're doing. It's like it's a game for the Scottish Government, and yet realistically they will never face any consequences for the lives they are destroying.

 

[applepie2100]

It really grinds when they seem to expect some level of congratulation for deigning to announce that they will start reopening the hospitality sector in more than a month's time. I really don't think they understand either the science or the economic and social damage they're doing. It's like it's a game for the Scottish Government, and yet realistically they will never face any consequences for the lives they are destroying.

It really is one big game to them. The only thing that seems to concern them is being seen to be doing it differently from Westminster and making sure that everyone thinks Nicola is good and Boris is bad. They want it to be seen that they're apparently saving us while Boris is doing his best to kill us off. As long as they persist with that mentality Scotland is going to have a long road out of this and a return to some kind of normality!

 

[greyman42]

It really grinds when they seem to expect some level of congratulation for deigning to announce that they will start reopening the hospitality sector in more than a month's time. I really don't think they understand either the science or the economic and social damage they're doing. It's like it's a game for the Scottish Government, and yet realistically they will never face any consequences for the lives they are destroying.

There needs to be consequences at the ballot box. I think there will be in England if the economy and peoples quality of life is allowed to be totally wrecked.

 

[Huntergreed]

There needs to be consequences at the ballot box. I think there will be in England if the economy and peoples quality of life is allowed to be totally wrecked.

I would argue we are getting to a point now where, if we don't change course and speed up our easing of restrictions and social distancing within the next month, it'll be too late.

 

[Butts]

There needs to be consequences at the ballot box. I think there will be in England if the economy and peoples quality of life is allowed to be totally wrecked.

No chance of that up here unfortunately, can's see the SNP hegemony ending any time soon.

 

[route101]

Ah ok. I definitely think the 5 mile limit will be gone by then - why would you try to restart tourism without letting people go further than 5 miles from home?

Got a funny feeling it will go but still avoid public transport!

 

[Huntergreed]

Got a funny feeling it will go but still avoid public transport!

I’ve got a horrible feeling this may happen, but if it does it’ll be at the expense of the economy and the wellbeing of thousands of non-car owners, including myself.

 

[Gadget88]

I agree in Scotland she wants to keep this going longer than necessary. At the start she said it wouldn’t go on longer than it had to but I don’t believe her. The R is very low in Scotland now. Cases have been lower in Scotland yet we are miles behind.

 

[route101]

I’ve got a horrible feeling this may happen, but if it does it’ll be at the expense of the economy and the wellbeing of thousands of non-car owners, including myself.

Yeah , i dont own a car to. Might have to use my own judgement

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Cases have been lower in Scotland yet we are miles behind.

Probably because Scotland has a considerably lower population?

If you want to compare case numbers it should at least be per capita.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The headline in today's edition of The National (the paper that supports an independent Scotland) was something along the lines of "..UK government delay to lockdown cost thousands of lives...".

As the matter is devolved, is it not Sturgeon who should be criticised here?

 

[duncanp]

As the matter is devolved, is it not Sturgeon who should be criticised here?

Yes, but a Nationalist newspaper which supports independence for Scotland will want to blame the nasty old UK government for anything which goes wrong.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Three deaths registered today, still a very promising decline there.

However... Sturgeon urges UK government to extend furlough scheme further

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon refers to today's figures showing a record fall in UK GDP.
She points out she has previously welcomed the UK government's furlough scheme, which she says has helped preserve jobs during a difficult period, but suggests it is time for the Treasury to signal a further extension of such support.
She points out that other countries, such as France, have already done so and put in a two-year plan.
Ms Sturgeon says that, without that, businesses will either be forced to open before it is safe to do so, costing lives, or businesses have to take an even bigger hit, costing jobs

That doesn't sound like a promising reopening of the economy in Scotland to me.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe Scotland should pay for it if it alone wants it, then?

 

[applepie2100]

Going on the statements made today it sounds very much like Nicola is hellbent on destroying both the economy and mental health of Scotland simply to further her own aims. At this rate Scotland will not return to normal for a long, long time. Needless to say that when everything does go the shape of the pear it will be Westminster getting the blame.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Going on the statements made today it sounds very much like Nicola is hellbent on destroying both the economy and mental health of Scotland simply to further her own aims. At this rate Scotland will not return to normal for a long, long time.

I'm certainly getting the feeling that support for Scottish independence could well be higher in England than in Scotland!

 

[Scotrail12]

Going on the statements made today it sounds very much like Nicola is hellbent on destroying both the economy and mental health of Scotland simply to further her own aims. At this rate Scotland will not return to normal for a long, long time.

I hate to say it but Wee Nippy comes across as a wannabe dictator. I cannot support independence if there is any prospect of her being leader.