When will Scotland return to some sort of normal?

[takno]

Just a subtle note, but I do notice Sturgeon often refers to the daily deaths when answering questions as to patients dying “from” or “of” Covid. Is it possible that they’re basing their judgements around all deaths with Covid on the certificate are caused purely by the virus, if so this is very worrying.

I don't think the Scottish Government's thinking is even that refined at this point. They mostly seem to have set themselves up to look all prudent and cautious compared to Westminster based on a very dodgy about R-values, and are now struggling with the realisation that they will have to back down in the end because even the dodgiest of science has stopped supporting that approach. If England open up early without any catastrophe, and Scotland wait a another month for no good reason and let the leisure sector die, then the government is pretty much finished.

 

[leightonbd]

The Non essential shops arent planning to open in Scotland next week , still quiet for a few weeks . Im hopeful of getting away once the hotels open. Reckon it would be a few weeks of sustained low numbers of deaths and infections before any restrictions are loosened faster.

I think it’s feasible to envisage Phase 2 from 18 June (which is mainly about going into people’s houses: doesn’t seem to change a great deal) and phase 3 three weeks later, so about 9 July, coincidentally close to the start of school ‘holidays’ and hence when most Scots expect to have a break.

It would be lovely to see phase 3 brought forward a week but I think they may be bent on hitting zero or very near zero deaths and that may encourage a longer view. Phase 3 is much closer to ‘normal’ than to lockdown but still has emphasis on distancing.

 

[Huntergreed]

I think it’s feasible to envisage Phase 2 from 18 June (which is mainly about going into people’s houses: doesn’t seem to change a great deal) and phase 3 three weeks later, so about 9 July, coincidentally close to the start of school ‘holidays’ and hence when most Scots expect to have a break.

It would be lovely to see phase 3 brought forward a week but I think they may be bent on hitting zero or very near zero deaths and that may encourage a longer view. Phase 3 is much closer to ‘normal’ than to lockdown but still has emphasis on distancing.

I would love to agree, but it does state that 'phase 3' will be when schools reopen, which sounds like they don't intend on moving into this phase until August. I do hope what you propose is correct, but Sturgeon did emphasise yesterday only a 'partial' move to Phase 2 will be possible next week, so it's likely to be:

18 June - Phase 2 (Part)
9 July - Phase 2 (Full)
30 July - Phase 3 (Part)
Mid August - Phase 3 (Full)

I would love your proposal to be correct, but given just how cautious Sturgeon is approaching the lockdown, I imagine this is more likely, although I would love to be proven wrong.

Again the government make things difficult, if a move to phase 2 is safe, then it is safe, if not, then don't. I don't understand these 'partial' phase changes.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I think it’s feasible to envisage Phase 2 from 18 June (which is mainly about going into people’s houses: doesn’t seem to change a great deal) and phase 3 three weeks later, so about 9 July, coincidentally close to the start of school ‘holidays’ and hence when most Scots expect to have a break.

In honesty, I think this is the most likely thing to be excluded from the move into phase 2 next week, if anything, as it is the thing that poses most risk at the moment.

 

[MattA7]

I live in a very small rural town so full lockdown, phase 1, phase 2 it doesn’t really make much odds as there is very little in the town. And I don’t drive so as long as the 5 mile limit and public transport restrictions are in place I won’t really benefit from it.

I don’t even know anyone in the town so it not even as if I can visit them

However as Scotland’s supreme leader sturgeon probably live in a major city like Glasgow or Edinburgh I don’t she cares about those in rural areas.

 

[takno]

I live in a very small rural town so full lockdown, phase 1, phase 2 it doesn’t really make much odds as there is very little in the town. And I don’t drive so as long as the 5 mile limit and public transport restrictions are in place I won’t really benefit from it.

I don’t even know anyone in the town so it not even as if I can visit them

Hope you're coping okay. I've been lucky in that it's been easy to get to know some of the neighbours during lockdown, but I appreciate not everyone has the best neighbours, and it can be difficult to start conversations. There's always a risk of being rebuffed, but if you can assume the worst and just try with the neighbours then you might end up with some valuable Contact

 

[GusB]

I live in a very small rural town so full lockdown, phase 1, phase 2 it doesn’t really make much odds as there is very little in the town. And I don’t drive so as long as the 5 mile limit and public transport restrictions are in place I won’t really benefit from it.

I don’t even know anyone in the town so it not even as if I can visit them

However as Scotland’s supreme leader sturgeon probably live in a major city like Glasgow or Edinburgh I don’t she cares about those in rural areas.

I'm in a similar position. The last bus into town is just before 7pm. Lockdown happened several years ago in that respect! The difference now is that the pub 1/4 of a mile away is closed. As someone who lives alone and has little contact with neighbours, I very much understand your position.

While you point the finger at Sturgeon, and I understand why, I'd argue that anyone who lives for long enough in an urban area will have no idea what it's like to live either in a small town or in a rural setting, even if they came from such a background in the first place.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

I live in a very small rural town so full lockdown, phase 1, phase 2 it doesn’t really make much odds as there is very little in the town. And I don’t drive so as long as the 5 mile limit and public transport restrictions are in place I won’t really benefit from it.

Rural areas present a huge problem, which any government would struggle to address. Opening up public transport is still not really an option yet, since the risk of transmission in confined spaces like busses and trains is too high, leaving people without cars unable to travel far at all, which of course is going to be felt much harder in more isolated areas.

There isn't a huge amount that can be done about that sadly. Opening up transport in rural areas would still be unsafe, although if going to the shops or pharmacy necessitates travelling by bus or train then that would be a permissible essential journey. But also it's leaving people unacceptably isolated which has risks of its own, which is why I'm not a fan of the punitive "stay at home or else" message that the UK and Scottish Governments have pushed on occasion. It's not fair to expect people to be OK with being on their own indefinitely.

But, as much as I'd agree that it's a problem that needs to be solved I can't think of how it could be done safely. Rationed access for leisure or non essential travel by public transport might be an option but it sounds like a nightmare to implement.

 

[MattA7]

Rural areas present a huge problem, which any government would struggle to address. Opening up public transport is still not really an option yet, since the risk of transmission in confined spaces like busses and trains is too high, leaving people without cars unable to travel far at all, which of course is going to be felt much harder in more isolated areas.

There isn't a huge amount that can be done about that sadly. Opening up transport in rural areas would still be unsafe, although if going to the shops or pharmacy necessitates travelling by bus or train then that would be a permissible essential journey. But also it's leaving people unacceptably isolated which has risks of its own, which is why I'm not a fan of the punitive "stay at home or else" message that the UK and Scottish Governments have pushed on occasion. It's not fair to expect people to be OK with being on their own indefinitely.

But, as much as I'd agree that it's a problem that needs to be solved I can't think of how it could be done safely. Rationed access for leisure or non essential travel by public transport might be an option but it sounds like a nightmare to implement.

I understand it’s probably a difficult situation to find a solution for. Even before the lockdown I always felt very isolated The trains are infrequent and unreliable (there was even talk of stopping them as it cost network rail/ScotRail more than it was worth)

it’s a town nobody really wants to move to. Even the council have a hard time letting their property’s there and homeowners experience difficulties selling. I don’t drink however the last remaining pub was struggling to find a buyer and the lockdown has probably been the death of it which will probably hit the locals hard.

after this situation is over I think I’ll probably look into relocating to Glasgow or something.

 

[route101]

I understand it’s probably a difficult situation to find a solution for. Even before the lockdown I always felt very isolated The trains are infrequent and unreliable (there was even talk of stopping them as it cost network rail/ScotRail more than it was worth)

it’s a town nobody really wants to move to. Even the council have a hard time letting their property’s there and homeowners experience difficulties selling. I don’t drink however the last remaining pub was struggling to find a buyer and the lockdown has probably been the death of it which will probably hit the locals hard.

after this situation is over I think I’ll probably look into relocating to Glasgow or something.

I live on the edge of East Kilbride , semi rural , the local bus has been suspended and i dont have a car. My brain says dont splash out on a car or some silly finance but heart says yes good for jobs.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

This is the dilemma I have. I've just left school, and have been sitting about the house doing nothing for the past 2 and a half months. Don't have a car and the bus service isn't great so it'd be difficult to take up any job opportunities that arise.

 

[Mag_seven]

Given the questions that Ian Blackford (SNP Westminster leader) has just asked at Prime Ministers Questions I wouldn't expect the SNP Holyrood government to ease the 2m rule in Scotland very soon.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This is the dilemma I have. I've just left school, and have been sitting about the house doing nothing for the past 2 and a half months. Don't have a car and the bus service isn't great so it'd be difficult to take up any job opportunities that arise.

Then you probably should get a car or move to somewhere where you can get a job. And commuting to work is essential travel, so the request not to use public transport for non-essential purposes doesn't apply to it.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Veering on the side of off-topicness here, so will try to keep my reply concise:

Then you probably should get a car

But money. I'm staying at home for University, parking in the city centre is extortionate and I can get a student weekly pass on the bus for £8.50. Doesn't work out financially.

move to somewhere where you can get a job.

I can't move somewhere if I don't have money from a job to do so.

And commuting to work is essential travel, so the request not to use public transport for non-essential purposes doesn't apply to it.

Of course, but when there's only one bus route running half-hourly (hourly after 6pm) there's not many options.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Veering on the side of off-topicness here, so will try to keep my reply concise:

But money. I'm staying at home for University, parking in the city centre is extortionate and I can get a student weekly pass on the bus for £8.50. Doesn't work out financially.

I can't move somewhere if I don't have money from a job to do so.

Of course, but when there's only one bus route running half-hourly (hourly after 6pm) there's not many options.

Replied here: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/cars-vs-buses-in-relatively-rural-places.205301/

 

[al78]

Then you probably should get a car or move to somewhere where you can get a job. And commuting to work is essential travel, so the request not to use public transport for non-essential purposes doesn't apply to it.

Buying a car and moving house require significant expenditure, which someone leaving school is unlikely to have. To get the required funds, they need to find employment, which requires moving and/or buying a car. Oh dear, the vicious circle rears its ugly head.

 

[scotrail158713]

More encouraging news today with a potential reopening of the tourism industry from July 15th

Coronavirus: Scottish tourism sector could reopen on 15 July

Tourism Secretary Fergus Ewing says the date is conditional on continued progress in tackling the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Scotland's tourism businesses, including pubs, hotels and restaurants, have been told to prepare to reopen on 15 July.

Tourism Secretary Fergus Ewing said the date was conditional on moving to the third phase of the route map for easing lockdown restrictions.

Announcing a new taskforce, he said businesses needed clarity to be able to plan for reopening.

But he warned the date may change if the evidence on Covid-19 requires it.

Mr Ewing told MSPs the pandemic had left the industry facing unprecedented challenges.

But he said a new taskforce would focus on the sector's recovery needs, actions being taken by the UK government and the development of a new domestic visitor marketing campaign.

Mr Ewing said this was in addition to a £2.3bn package of support for businesses which included measures specific to the tourism and hospitality sector, such as a full year of non-domestic rates relief and specific grant schemes.

Mr Ewing said: "The coronavirus pandemic has presented challenges across the entirety of the Scottish economy, but it is very clear there are exceptional circumstances facing this sector that must be recognised.

"We have acted as quickly as we can to address the significant financial challenges faced by businesses and provide a comprehensive package of support."

'This is very, very welcome'

Tom Ponton, owner of the Oz Bar in Edinburgh, said the news was "very welcome and long overdue" after a "very anxious period" for the industry.

"We really need to know what the guidelines are before we get too excited, but this is still very, very welcome," he said.

"This is the toughest adversity I've ever faced in the 40 years I've been in the trade.

"I've felt very anxious during the lockdown and I have had to borrow £70,000 to get me through. I've never had debt in my life before and now I do.

"Maybe we shouldn't have been so quick to cancel everything in the summer. We treble our turnover during the four weeks of the Edinburgh Festivals, which now we won't have."

Mr Ewing also said the Scottish government was asking the UK government to do more, including a review of VAT rates and to consider extensions to schemes such as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.

"I've been engaging with businesses since the beginning of the outbreak and I have heard their calls for more clarity, which today I can provide," he said.

"Businesses should start to prepare for a provisional return to trading - with appropriate safety guidelines - on the 15th July 2020.

"This date cannot be definitive and is conditional on public health advice and progression to phase three of the route map. Businesses must now use this time to satisfy the necessary regulations and adapt to the new way of living."

The Scottish government confirmed the tourism and hospitality announcement applies to pubs, hotels and restaurants.

Phase three of the route-map out of lockdowncovers accommodation providers, visitor attractions, indoor areas of pubs and restaurants and the wider aspects of tourism.

Phase four of the route map includes events and no possible dates have yet been given for this stage.

'Hugely positive'

Marc Crothall, chief executive of the Scottish Tourism Alliance, said the announcement was "a hugely positive milestone in our road to recovery".

He said they had been pushing for a date so that accommodation providers, visitor attractions, pubs and restaurants could plan effectively.

He said this would include accepting bookings, arranging for staff to return from furlough, and ensuring that safety measures are in place for both employees and customers.

Mr Crothall said "urgent solutions or alternative measures" were needed to "overcome" the current two metre distancing restrictions.

He also called for some parts of the tourism sector, such as self-catering, caravan and camping parks, to be allowed to reopen earlier.

But he added: "The reassurance that there is a summer season for tourism in Scotland will offer a huge comfort and relief to many thousands of businesses."

 

[route101]

More encouraging news today with a potential reopening of the tourism industry from July 15th

Coronavirus: Scottish tourism sector could reopen on 15 July

Tourism Secretary Fergus Ewing says the date is conditional on continued progress in tackling the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Hopefully the hotels open up then.

 

[route101]

This is the dilemma I have. I've just left school, and have been sitting about the house doing nothing for the past 2 and a half months. Don't have a car and the bus service isn't great so it'd be difficult to take up any job opportunities that arise.

Same here, would be hard to movve out right now. And rush to buy a car.

 

[route101]

More encouraging news today with a potential reopening of the tourism industry from July 15th

Coronavirus: Scottish tourism sector could reopen on 15 July

Tourism Secretary Fergus Ewing says the date is conditional on continued progress in tackling the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Surely the 5 mile will be dropped for that.

 

[Huntergreed]

More encouraging news today with a potential reopening of the tourism industry from July 15th

Coronavirus: Scottish tourism sector could reopen on 15 July

Tourism Secretary Fergus Ewing says the date is conditional on continued progress in tackling the coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Hopefully that's a rough date for the reopening of the transport network to everyone (ie no more enforcement of 'essential only) and abolishment of '5 miles only', otherwise it seems pointless.

 

[MattA7]

Hopefully that's a rough date for the reopening of the transport network to everyone (ie no more enforcement of 'essential only) and abolishment of '5 miles only', otherwise it seems pointless.

perhaps That’s when they plan to start phase 3 of the exit from lockdown although you would think the tourists would be the very last people they want want in the country Incase someone brings the virus in

 

[Huntergreed]

perhaps That’s when they plan to start phase 3 of the exit from lockdown although you would think the tourists would be the very last people they want want in the country Incase someone brings the virus in

We do need to let them in sometime, and letting them in during summer when they can contribute to the rebuilding of the economy is probably the best time to do it.

 

[scotrail158713]

Surely the 5 mile will be dropped for that.

Hopefully that's a rough date for the reopening of the transport network to everyone (ie no more enforcement of 'essential only) and abolishment of '5 miles only', otherwise it seems pointless.

Completely agree

 

[route101]

Completely agree

Then there is no point opening hotels.

 

[scotrail158713]

Then there is no point opening hotels.

?? You’ve said hotels should be opened, and now you’re saying there’s no point in doing that.

 

[route101]

?? You’ve said hotels should be opened, and now you’re saying there’s no point in doing that.

I meant if there's a 5 mile limit then no point in opening hotels !

 

[Scotrail12]

Sorry if someone has mentioned already but ScotRail appear to be bringing back many more services. Argyle & North Clyde are my local lines and both appear to be running a full timetable as of Monday.

Should be a good sign.

 

[Huntergreed]

Sorry if someone has mentioned already but ScotRail appear to be bringing back many more services. Argyle & North Clyde are my local lines and both appear to be running a full timetable as of Monday.

Should be a good sign.

I don’t believe the timetables for Covid are prepared until the Friday before the following week so I don’t think it means anything as of yet. i would imagine a full timetable will be restored in line with the reopening of tourism and hospitality on 15th July to allow transport to be used more widely.

 

[duncanp]

Perhaps the re-opening of the hospitality sector in Scotland on 15th July will prod Boris Johnson to announce a date for re-opening in England.

He may choose to re-open pubs in England at the same time as Scotland in order to prevent a mass movement of people from the side of the border where they are closed, to the side where they are open.