Which company would you think will takeover the Liverpool-Nottingham Section of EMR Regional's Liverpool-Manchester-Nottingham-Norwich Route?

[swt_passenger]

I believe when the Central Trains franchise expired in 2007 the DfT proposed that the Liverpool to Nottingham section of the Liverpool to Norwich service should be cut.

That seems likely, it’s been on the back burner a long time. But unless someone kept a local copy I doubt it will be easily found online now.

 

[LowLevel]

It actually got to the point where TPE instructors started route learning. It was binned because at that time TPE didn't have a depot at Liverpool and it was felt there was little to be gained by going through a big move without sorting out all of the problems so the status quo remained.

 

[Dspatula]

Manchester to Chesterfield (connection for Derby and Leicester) and Nottingham is a big flow.

The plan for now is to continue running with 158s for the time being.

1L06 0742 Liverpool - Norwich as it is now was one of the most unreliable trains in the country and frequently lost it's path through to Manchester courtesy of Northern playing silly games like kicking single 142s out on the stopper immediately in front causing riots throughout the route. The stopper now leaves almost 10 minutes earlier, is usually a 4 car and is much more punctual so as long as TPE and Northern don't muck the corridor up with their 0830ish trains into Manchester being late 1L06 performs far better. Both it and 1L05 load to well over 400 though which does take a long time to detrain at Oxford Road - it's usually full down the aisles from Warrington or even Widnes.

The plan for the time being is to retain some 158s for Liverpool - Norwich until such time as the DfT indicates what is occurring with it. As I mentioned before the two bidders currently are TPE and EMR both on the basis of running Liverpool - Nottingham. EMR were only invited to bid in February or thereabouts when the imminent failure of Northern became apparent. COVID-19 will no doubt muck things up further so I've personally swung from it being definitely TPE to being marginally more likely than not of EMR retaining it at least in the short to medium term.

Most of the delays at 8 tend to originate from transport for Wales’ 1H81 0809 departure which pre-crisis was pretty much always late, was end door stock (usual two 158s if you’re lucky), was usually rammed and then has to also absorb two trains worth of Piccadilly passengers from 2O42 and 1O42. And on the off chance it did go smoothly you could guarantee either the 13 past Northern or 16 past TPE would be late and given the 13, 26, 30 and 34 all pick up Deansgate 1L06 never really stood a chance.

I can see the route staying as is with EMR for longer than originally planned but I’m sure TPE will get it in the end. Won’t really solve the relatively short turn around time at Liverpool and the all too often stuck behind the stopper both ways.

 

[37424]

If the Dft don't make a decision soon though presumably there is a possibility that the spare 185's will be redeployed elsewhere so if TPE do get it eventually they may have to look at alternative options for rolling stock.

 

[37057]

If the Dft don't make a decision soon though presumably there is a possibility that the spare 185's will be redeployed elsewhere so if TPE do get it eventually they may have to look at alternative options for rolling stock.

Those 15 units are now staying with TPE until December now.

 

[D365]

Those 15 units are now staying with TPE until December now.

Interesting. Are you aware of the reason behind this?

(My first guess would be that Eversholt wants to keep the Class 185 fleet in full working condition, and that rotating the units in service with TPE is the best way of achieving this...)

 

[py_megapixel]

TransPennine would seem logical

Regional express route - yes
Crosses the Pennines - yes
Fits in well with the other routes in timetable - yes
Spare suitable rolling stock - yes
Not an absolutely toxic brand like Northern - eh... debatable

However I'm not optimistic that some "genius" in the DfT won't decide to give it to Northern instead.

 

[Ianno87]

TransPennine would seem logical

Regional express route - yes
Crosses the Pennines - yes
Fits in well with the other routes in timetable - yes
Spare suitable rolling stock - yes
Not an absolutely toxic brand like Northern - eh... debatable

However I'm not optimistic that some "genius" in the DfT won't decide to give it to Northern instead.

Applying those same "tests" to Northern...

-They operate regional express services too (e.g. Nottingham-Leeds)
-They cross the pennines on two main routes, and the route is in the North
-It "fits in well" in that it does not go anywhere new to Northern (which *would* be the case for TPE)
-And it could sub-lease the 185s....

 

[py_megapixel]

Applying those same "tests" to Northern...
-They operate regional express services too (e.g. Nottingham-Leeds)

Yes but their rolling stock and service is of a far lower standard than TPE as their routes are much shorter. The length of this route is much better suited to TPE.

It could sub-lease the 185s....

It could, but I don't see what the benefit would be given that TPE already have them. If they were leased to Northern then they would need to have a new exterior livery, new seat covers and possibly a new paint job inside.

 

[Ianno87]

Yes but their rolling stock and service is of a far lower standard than TPE as their routes are much shorter. The length of this route is much better suited to TPE.

Suggest trying a 195.... Those are fine for the not-dissimilar Airport-Lakes services and Airport-Liverpool / Leeds-Chester.

It could, but I don't see what the benefit would be given that TPE already have them. If they were leased to Northern then they would need to have a new exterior livery, new seat covers and possibly a new paint job inside.

They'll need all those things sooner or later anyway as part of refurbushment, regardless of operator. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things to stick some vinyls on.

 

[Domh245]

However I'm not optimistic that some "genius" in the DfT won't decide to give it to Northern instead.

Apart from the posts reporting that EMR were hastily asked to develop a bid for it because Northern have pulled out...

 

[37057]

Interesting. Are you aware of the reason behind this?

(My first guess would be that Eversholt wants to keep the Class 185 fleet in full working condition, and that rotating the units in service with TPE is the best way of achieving this...)

I'm not aware of the rationale behind it but my own assumption is that at least one of the reasons is to help boost capacity while maintaining social distancing.

The surplus units (137-151) were supposed to be placed into warm storage from the 1st June but are now being kicked out into traffic instead, which is good.

 

[py_megapixel]

Suggest trying a 195.... Those are fine for the not-dissimilar Airport-Lakes services and Airport-Liverpool / Leeds-Chester.

If Northern did get it then it would probably be a 195, but I didn't really agree with the transfer of the above services out of TPE anyway. 195s, while perfectly reasonable short to medium distance trains, are not up to the same standard as a 185, considering the lack of catering service, Fainsa "ironing-board" seats, and single toilet.

 

[Energy]

They'll need all those things sooner or later anyway as part of refurbushment, regardless of operator. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things to stick some vinyls on.

Umm, the 185s have just been refurbished a couple years ago, they won't need it for a while

 

[Nym]

Suggest trying a 195.... Those are fine for the not-dissimilar Airport-Lakes services and Airport-Liverpool / Leeds-Chester.
They'll need all those things sooner or later anyway as part of refurbushment, regardless of operator. Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things to stick some vinyls on.

Please no, I've managed to avoid CAF stock so far and I'd like to keep it that way.

 

[Purple Orange]

Please no, I've managed to avoid CAF stock so far and I'd like to keep it that way.

Why? They seem decent enough to me. I like them.

 

[Killingworth]

Applying those same "tests" to Northern...

-They operate regional express services too (e.g. Nottingham-Leeds)
-They cross the pennines on two main routes, and the route is in the North
-It "fits in well" in that it does not go anywhere new to Northern (which *would* be the case for TPE)
-And it could sub-lease the 185s....

They should be operating a regional express service from Nottingham to Leeds but it's currently a bus substitute between Sheffield and Nottingham. Can't say what's running north from Sheffield, but even before lockdown the Nottingham end was falling apart with many trains cancelled.

The thought of Northern getting their hands on the other half of the route fills local users with fear and dread!! No way, please!

CAF 195s may be fine, but if you get no train at all, 158, 150, 153, 156, 170, 185 or 195 it doesn't matter. You'd take a Pacer rather than nothing.

 

[Neptune]

They should be operating a regional express service from Nottingham to Leeds but it's currently a bus substitute between Sheffield and Nottingham. Can't say what's running north from Sheffield, but even before lockdown the Nottingham end was falling apart with many trains cancelled.

The thought of Northern getting their hands on the other half of the route fills local users with fear and dread!! No way, please!

CAF 195s may be fine, but if you get no train at all, 158, 150, 153, 156, 170, 185 or 195 it doesn't matter. You'd take a Pacer rather than nothing.

Just the hourly stoppers between Leeds & Sheffield on both routes are operating. EMR are filling the gap between Sheffield & Nottingham on top of the bustitutions.

 

[londonmidland]

195s are okay but they aren’t a patch on 185s in terms of comfort. I wouldn’t want to be sat on the former for more than an hour really. Plus Northern offer no first class accommodation or catering.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

TPE should get it as the 185's give them an advantage as well as them already running the other fast service on the Hope Valley

 

[Killingworth]

Northern will not be running Liverpool - Nottingham, that's certain.

It's all but certain to be TPE with 185s, with EMR as backstop, as it's probably been for the last 2 years, maybe more. TPE are recruiting drivers at Sheffield and Liverpool, another strong clue.

Anyone betting any other way is hedging for an unexpected COVID like complication!

In 2023/4 Northern will get the opportunity to operate the additional Sheffield-Manchester service, but that's a long way ahead and a lot will happen before then.

 

[py_megapixel]

It's all but certain to be TPE with 185s, with EMR as backstop, as it's probably been for the last 2 years, maybe more. TPE are recruiting drivers at Sheffield and Liverpool, another strong clue.

Out of interest do you know if they're likely to run them all as 6-cars (the Cleethorpes too)? There will be more than enough stock to do that and current Manchester to Sheffield services are packed enough as it is, going from 7 carriages an hour to 12 would make massive difference.

I don't see any reason not to other than the cost of fuel and possibly platform lengths

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Out of interest do you know if they're likely to run them all as 6-cars (the Cleethorpes too)? There will be more than enough stock to do that and current Manchester to Sheffield services are packed enough as it is, going from 7 carriages an hour to 12 would make massive difference.

I don't see any reason not to other than the cost of fuel and possibly platform lengths

According TPE when I asked them on Twitter they said yes all services will eventually be 6-cars. It will make a huge difference usually it can get full on a 3-car between Doncaster and Sheffield and Sheffield to Manchester

 

[Domh245]

TPE are recruiting drivers at Sheffield and Liverpool, another strong clue.

I'd be 99% certain those are for their current (expanded) services - if/when they get Liverpool-Nottingham, some degree of staff from EMR will be TUPE'd over along with it, surely - I certainly don't think there's enough expansion in EMR's regional routes that they can all be redeployed.

 

[Fokx]

Interesting. Are you aware of the reason behind this?

(My first guess would be that Eversholt wants to keep the Class 185 fleet in full working condition, and that rotating the units in service with TPE is the best way of achieving this...)

It’s to ensure the safe and suitable introduction of the Nova fleet. There’s been plenty of minor problems with the CAF stock, which has resulted in some of the delivered units being rejected until CAF rectifies them, as well as teaching problems with the fleet already in service from the volume of AWS alarms, to gaps in the cab doors causing rattling, to overheating and the Nova 1 reservation and destination equipment still not functioning as intended.

Ultimately it’s to ensure fleet reliability after the mistakes learnt last year, and now will help with social distancing

 

[Killingworth]

I'd be 99% certain those are for their current (expanded) services - if/when they get Liverpool-Nottingham, some degree of staff from EMR will be TUPE'd over along with it, surely - I certainly don't think there's enough expansion in EMR's regional routes that they can all be redeployed.

TUPE from EMR to TPE is likely to be on offer if the route changes hands, but it's too early for anyone to get more specific. TPE must plan some way ahead to meet driver shortages and 18 months from recruitment advertising to driving trains isn't very long, especially if significant numbers may be required.

If EMR keep the route any TPE driver recruitment contingency planning won't be necessary. If they don't it is.

Some EMR crews would probably be offered redeployment within the company and accept. How many offered and how many accepting EMR redeployment is largely out of TPE's control, but not totally. A few may decide to leave the company (and the industry) depending on any terms that may be made available and their personal situation. Voluntary redundancy or early retirement packages might be an option.

It is by no means certain that all would carry on as now, just wearing new uniforms and trained for new traction. When the time comes TPE could offer enhanced terms to those being TUPE'd over. That could be a range of features tailored to how many were needed be it short, medium or long term. There are big savings on training to employ already trained staff - and the same applies to EMR wanting to retain skilled people.

Having different terms for different groups of employees makes operations more complicated. As a TPE manager I sense I'd rather avoid that and employ as many as possible on standard freshly recruited TPE terms. I'd want to have an available pool of my own trained people ready to take on a new route. Short and long term costs and benefits may conflict.

But I know nothing about this case, just adding 2+2 to make 5 or 6! And TUPE is a digression too far. It's a complicated and emotive subject - been there, got the T shirt!

 

[JonathanH]

Clearly TUPE is common when service groups move, for example, when Northern took back the North West Express services from TransPennine Express a few years ago.

Isn't the problem with the idea of TUPE in this case that EMR run the service out of Nottingham and you would expect that if they did take the route over, particularly if they use Manchester-based units, TPE would look to have their main traincrew base for the route at Manchester and Sheffield, with empty running to Nottingham as necessary.

Therefore, I imagine some movement of the traincrew for the service would be needed, even if TUPE is on offer.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Clearly TUPE is common when service groups move, for example, when Northern took back the North West Express services from TransPennine Express a few years ago.

Isn't the problem with the idea of TUPE in this case that EMR run the service out of Nottingham and you would expect that if they did take the route over, particularly if they use Manchester-based units, TPE would look to have their main traincrew base for the route at Manchester and Sheffield, with empty running to Nottingham as necessary.

Therefore, I imagine some movement of the traincrew for the service would be needed, even if TUPE is on offer.

Aren’t East Mids obliged to run more services in what was the new franchise on the local lines? If so, the train crew establishment can just be maintained. TransPennine can continue recruiting externally - they won’t be short of people wanting to move given the sheer positivity of their salary and Ts and Cs.

Are they likely to base drivers for this out of Manchester? Wouldn’t it just be Liverpool and Sheffield? Cleethorpes services surely don’t need to run out of Manchester train crew depot either?

 

[Fokx]

Aren’t East Mids obliged to run more services in what was the new franchise on the local lines? If so, the train crew establishment can just be maintained. TransPennine can continue recruiting externally - they won’t be short of people wanting to move given the sheer positivity of their salary and Ts and Cs.

Are they likely to base drivers for this out of Manchester? Wouldn’t it just be Liverpool and Sheffield? Cleethorpes services surely don’t need to run out of Manchester train crew depot either?

More likely to be Liverpool and Sheffield for the bulk of services as Network Rail no longer allow train crew changes on platform 13 or 14 as it can lead to congestion.

Though it’s possible that driver and conductor changeovers could be carried out at Oxford Road one stop down the line, similar to how Victoria changeovers are done.

Manchester crews operate some services from Piccadilly to Sheffield so could also run a Picc>Sheffield>Liv>Sheffield>Picc for example

 

[4-SUB 4732]

More likely to be Liverpool and Sheffield for the bulk of services as Network Rail no longer allow train crew changes on platform 13 or 14 as it can lead to congestion.

Though it’s possible that driver and conductor changeovers could be carried out at Oxford Road one stop down the line, similar to how Victoria changeovers are done.

Manchester crews operate some services from Piccadilly to Sheffield so could also run a Picc>Sheffield>Liv>Sheffield>Picc for example

The first train of the day from Sheffield to Manchester and the first one from Manchester to Sheffield, and the corresponding last Manchester-bound and last very late train to Sheffield are all able to be worked by Sheffield crew, on nights even (Cleethorpes ones that is). Given that the Liverpool stuff is often worked ECS to/from Nottingham, surely only Liverpool crew need sign it with Sheffield?

That way your Liverpool crew can sign Sheffield, Nottingham, Preston and core route to York; some crew at Airport for core route to York, Hull and Scotland; and Victoria can sign Liverpool, Airport, Scarborough, Middlesbrough and Newcastle or similar.