Will traffic levels recover in the Croydon area to make improvement scheme worthwhile?

[Deepgreen]

Moderator note: split from

Plan to remove Croydon rail bottleneck

Apparently, Network Rail proposes to replace junctions around Selhurst, Norwood Junction and Croydon areas into flyovers. Article is here: https://www.railwaygazette.com/news/news/uk/single-view/view/transformational-plan-to-remove-croydon-railway-bottleneck.html ...If approved, the scheme would...

www.railforums.co.uk

Has the business case for the entire scheme been reviewed in the light of current and future traffic levels? I wonder if traffic will ever return to close to the pre-C19 levels, given the widespread predictions of work-from-home, etc.

 

[edwin_m]

Has the business case for the entire scheme been reviewed in the light of current and future traffic levels? I wonder if traffic will ever return to close to the pre-C19 levels, given the widespread predictions of work-from-home, etc.

Traffic returned in the Far East after SARS.

I think it's more a case that Covid means that something like this should have been done five years ago instead of ten years ago.

 

[aleggatta]

Has the business case for the entire scheme been reviewed in the light of current and future traffic levels? I wonder if traffic will ever return to close to the pre-C19 levels, given the widespread predictions of work-from-home, etc.

I think we will see traffic levels return to what they are, and one would hope that the reduction in passenger flows might make the disruption caused by the works to be less intense, but I suspect that by the time the work commences we will be seeing largely 'normal' passenger flows. Although COVID has caused a large scale reduction in passenger numbers, i imagine that East Croydon would still hold the same position relative to the rest of the network when it comes to congestion and throughput.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think we will see traffic levels return to what they are, and one would hope that the reduction in passenger flows might make the disruption caused by the works to be less intense, but I suspect that by the time the work commences we will be seeing largely 'normal' passenger flows. Although COVID has caused a large scale reduction in passenger numbers, i imagine that East Croydon would still hold the same position relative to the rest of the network when it comes to congestion and throughput.

Indeed. There is a school of thought that on the busiest parts of the network, there is a great deal of suppressed demand. 12 car trains on Thameslink were full within a matter of months, whilst the 10 car trains on the SW suburban Network have also filled rapidly. On the tube the increase 30% in capacity on the Victoria line ha sheen gobbled up in a few years. It follows that for these busiest parts of the network, a significant (say 20-30%) fall in demand from existing users would simply be backfilled by the suppressed demand ‘coming aboard’.

 

[Glenn1969]

I think we could be social distancing for quite a long time. Sars didn't take hold here in the same way and this virus seems to be far more contagious. If they don't find a treatment or vaccine we may never go back to the old normal. In that case are works like these still justified ?

 

[Bald Rick]

I think we could be social distancing for quite a long time. Sars didn't take hold here in the same way and this virus seems to be far more contagious. If they don't find a treatment or vaccine we may never go back to the old normal. In that case are works like these still justified ?

If we’re social distancing on the railways in current form for a long time, the railway is unsustainable and will close. The country can’t afford around £200m a week to be transporting fresh air.

However, That won’t happen. SNCF have removed social distancing requirements form their long distance trains as of yesterday - you just need to wear a face mask. Almost all other european railways have much less restrictive social distancing requirements on board trains than we do. I would be very surprised if the social distancing requirements and advice for using rail aren’t changed in the coming weeks.

 

[Glenn1969]

But France and most of Europe have done a better job of conquering Covid than we have so time will tell

 

[MarkyT]

However, That won’t happen. SNCF have removed social distancing requirements form their long distance trains as of yesterday - you just need to wear a face mask. Almost all other european railways have much less restrictive social distancing requirements on board trains than we do. I would be very surprised if the social distancing requirements and advice for using rail aren’t changed in the coming weeks.

I think UK is now unique in not requiring masks on public transport, although they are recommended as per Government advice, and Sadiq Khan tells us to "wear a face covering for your entire journey" on TfL which is as close to a command he can make without any mandatory powers to enforce.

 

[Bald Rick]

But France and most of Europe have done a better job of conquering Covid than we have so time will tell

Stronger lockdowns, a lease dense population, and a less dense population.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I think we could be social distancing for quite a long time. Sars didn't take hold here in the same way and this virus seems to be far more contagious. If they don't find a treatment or vaccine we may never go back to the old normal. In that case are works like these still justified ?

If there is a reduction in passengers it will be because COVID-19 has not 'gone away'. That means passengers will still have to continue to social distance and therefore there will be a need to run all trains or even MORE trains !. Either those-passengers OR the-state will need to foot the bill. If they cannot pay up then there are very serious problems for our civilisation ahead.

Long term it i more likely COVID-19 will die down one way or another and there will be little or no reduced travel. Biggest impact is likely to be caused by people working from home.