Coronavirus: How likely is a second peak and what will their consequences be?

[SouthEastBuses]

How likely is a second peak? What are the consequences? Will it be deadlier than the first peak?

 

[yorkie]

There is no way to answer these questions.

 

[BananaRepublic]

There's a second peak and a second wave.
We are still in the first wave and the current caution in easing restrictions is supposed to be about preventing a second peak (in this first wave).

A return of the virus, after the number of infections had reduced significantly for a period of time, for example during next winter's "flu season", would be a second wave.

As for your questions; as Yorkie says......

 

[Tetchytyke]

There's no real way of knowing yet. The answer very much is "we don't know".

FWIW I think this virus will be with us for a while to come yet, and so you will have peaks and troughs. But providing the peaks don't overwhelm the health service, it is no different to the seasonal flu killing 30,000 people a year in the UK.

 

[Esker-pades]

There's no real way of knowing yet. The answer very much is "we don't know".

FWIW I think this virus will be with us for a while to come yet, and so you will have peaks and troughs. But providing the peaks don't overwhelm the health service, it is no different to the seasonal flu killing 30,000 people a year in the UK.

We're at ~37,000 confirmed deaths (~45,000 where the death certificate mentions COVID-19 and ~59,000 excess deaths) and it's not even the end of the May. Comparisons to flu are long gone.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Comparisons to flu are long gone.

Sorry, I meant future peaks, not the initial surge.

 

[Chester1]

Sorry, I meant future peaks, not the initial surge.

Agreed. Its not comparable now but with medical improvements it will become comparable to bad flu. The death toll is high because we can only treat symptoms. If even a couple out of the dozens of trials going on now are successful we will be in a very different position.

The countries that have already lifted more measures than the UK are a good indicator that the next stage of returning to normality should not cause a second wave. Its the stage after planned from 4th July in England i.e. reopening hotels, tourism, cafes, pubs, restaurants and hospitality industry in general that are unclear.

 

[BananaRepublic]

....The countries that have already lifted more measures than the UK are a good indicator that the next stage of returning to normality should not cause a second wave.......

Not a ”second wave”.
That should be “second peak”.
There is a distinct difference.
We are currently part way through the first wave of infection, a wave that will see one or more peaks in different countries and regions around the world.

The WHO say we are only at the beginning of this pandemic. The first wave of which may last for 6 months to a year or more.

 

[nlogax]

As some restrictions are eased there'll be a second smaller peak, and a third, and more ripples after that. If both contact tracing and a policy of quick response local lockdowns are in place then there's no reason why this should be a massive concern.

Yes, that's a gigantic 'if', visible from high Earth orbit.

 

[Mag_seven]

Just a gentle reminder that this thread is for the discussion of the likelihood of a second peak and its consequences. If anyone wants to discuss anything else then please start a new thread. Thanks.

 

[brad465]

While this is not the same as Spanish Flu, the second wave was the one the W-shape age graph on deaths impacting the younger groups more than normal, where the first wave was much like the first wave of Covid-19 in terms of ages worst affected. Yes we are not in the same position as a WW1 scenario (where mass mobilisation of young soldiers helped a mutated virus spread easily) isn't in place and medical advances exist 100 years on, but in a hypothetical case of a second Covid-19 wave being worse than the first, we need to try and hold it off until at least some drug treatments are widely available to treat the virus better.

 

[Bletchleyite]

While this is not the same as Spanish Flu, the second wave was the one the W-shape age graph on deaths impacting the younger groups more than normal, where the first wave was much like the first wave of Covid-19 in terms of ages worst affected. Yes we are not in the same position as a WW1 scenario (where mass mobilisation of young soldiers helped a mutated virus spread easily) isn't in place and medical advances exist 100 years on, but in a hypothetical case of a second Covid-19 wave being worse than the first, we need to try and hold it off until at least some drug treatments are widely available to treat the virus better.

Fortunately those are on the way - there has apparently been considerable success with Remdesivir, but unfortunately not with Domestos.

 

[Yew]

I feel that a second peak of infections is a possibility, but I don't feel it's likely to reach the vulnerable population, since we're not pushing potentially infected people out of hospials and into Care homes.