Ideas and predictions for trains serving Old Oak Common station

[cle]

It depends on how you see OOC - and how it evolves in purpose. Not even today does everything stop at Stratford, and that has grown immensely beyond interchange to a destination. But I'd say you'd have an easier time stopping Norwich services than the peak Essex expresses!

But let's look at Ueno/Shinagawa - all trains stop (not just Shinkansen) and help distribute passengers better across the multi-centric metro area. Paris doesn't really have second mainline stops in that vein. In the US, Newark Penn, Boston Back Bay - the same, except for one daily non-stop NYP-WAS. Even Haymarket and Stockport fulfill similar here, on a more modest scale!

So is it like that, or is it a Vauxhall/Finsbury Park? I think the development there may determine that, but at least having the island platforms will enable the flexibility on the GWML to stop all, or some - and allow overtaking. If WRATH or whatever is is now called happens, it'll have those ex-HEX services and new journey connections from the South West.

The OOC calls for GWML passengers offers more than just Crossrail/Central line journeys - and the much quicker journey to Heathrow. It will be connected to both Overground routes - giving a much quicker journey to places like Richmond, Chiswick Biz Park, Shepherds Bush, Clapham Junction (+ all of South London, Croydon/Gatwick/Brighton - vs via Paddington) - and across North London, vs today. It may even offer Chiltern services back up towards Wycombe. Sadly the one thing it won't allow is super quick Euston journeys - similar to Stratford-St Pancras (on Oyster anyway)!

 

[coppercapped]

Accomodating a whole extra stop at a busy interchange on a considerably busier railway than 50 years ago with modern safety systems and defensive driving whilst matching that journey time is a pretty impressive achievement.

Having just spent nearly £4billion electrifying the line and operating a brand new fleet of express trains it's disgraceful. You should be matching the time taken by the HSTs, not the time that a Modernisation Plan diesel could achieve.

(PS, if you've got 'modern safety systems' why do you also need 'defensive driving'? Don't you trust the 'modern safety systems'?)

 

[Ianno87]

(PS, if you've got 'modern safety systems' why do you also need 'defensive driving'? Don't you trust the 'modern safety systems'?)

Read up on the Swiss Cheese safety model.

 

[Ianno87]

Having just spent nearly £4billion electrifying the line and operating a brand new fleet of express trains it's disgraceful. You should be matching the time taken by the HSTs, not the time that a Modernisation Plan diesel could achieve.

In your opinion, that is.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Where did you get the impression that I said that everything must stop at Reading?

Well, you've certainly always been opposed to my view, which remains the case, that the IETs should not be carrying commuter traffic and a dedicated 12-car fast commuter service should operate instead.

I have no issue with stopping the suburban services at OOC - that does make a lot of sense. But one has to be very, very clear about what one is trying to achieve if the expresses are stopped there.

Connectivity, most importantly with HS2.

 

[Mikey C]

As HEx will be a non competitor at T4, and less frequent for T2/T3 (Central), that only leaves T5 where it still will have a significant frequency advantage.

I'm assuming that inter terminal travel will be free as it is now, so many people will hop on the HEx at T5 then change at Central for the cheaper Crossrail.

 

[si404]

I'm assuming that inter terminal travel will be free as it is now, so many people will hop on the HEx at T5 then change at Central for the cheaper Crossrail.

Depends on the additional price HEx charges. Depends on destination. Depends on prior knowledge of fares and frequencies/being alert enough to learn that knowledge.

You are going to arrive at OOC/Paddington 10-20 minutes later than if you stayed on. If that doesn't bother you, then you'd probably just take the half-hourly Elizabeth line train from T5 and save the hassle of faffing around at Central.

If you are going to do this to save money, and are going to Central London, then you'd probably just use the £3.10 Piccadilly line fare and save a further £7 as hassle and time aren't a big issue for you.

Airport staff going to West London - those are the key people who'd do this change: they want to get home as fast as possible (so won't wait for the 2tph Liz if they can get on an earlier one from T4) and don't want HEx destinations. A fair few people, but a fair few people who already do this or travel by other modes, so not really a grabbing of HEx passengers.

 

[plugwash]

A related question is how will gating be handled at OOC.

If heathrow express is to stop there and is to retain it's premium pricing then presumablly gatelines will need to be set up to seperate it from crossrail serices.

 

[edwin_m]

As HEx will be a non competitor at T4, and less frequent for T2/T3 (Central), that only leaves T5 where it still will have a significant frequency advantage.

I'm assuming that inter terminal travel will be free as it is now, so many people will hop on the HEx at T5 then change at Central for the cheaper Crossrail.

I suspect T4 isn't long for this world, though the station may remain as a place to reverse the trains and for airport employees and others. I've already made the point that most Crossrail trains will be overtaken between Central and OOC.

 

[Horizon22]

A related question is how will gating be handled at OOC.

If heathrow express is to stop there and is to retain it's premium pricing then presumablly gatelines will need to be set up to seperate it from crossrail serices.

Would be mildly complex I suppose as I don't believe there's anywhere else with an intermediate express - StanstedEx doesn't really count - plus the additional HS2 complexity. Hopefully the station retains a universal look despite the fact that there could be various different operators.

 

[Horizon22]

I have seen no published figures showing the expected numbers of people wanting to get from the Thames Valley to Birmingham by changing at OOC. And it is only Birmingham and points north which come into question as HS2 doesn't serve intermediate stations and such passengers will continue to use existing routes. Is this number large - or small? For the proposal to stop most or all expresses at OOC to be acceptable there had better be a large number of people on every GW express - and there will be 12 each hour - making the change at OOC otherwise the majority will suffer for the few.

I have no issue with stopping the suburban services at OOC - that does make a lot of sense. But one has to be very, very clear about what one is trying to achieve if the expresses are stopped there.

Suppose those currently travelling to Reading for a XC service though as you say what those numbers are unknown, or at best not easily extractable. Perhaps just one route should have an express serving OOC, with everyone else changing at Reading potentially for some sort of semi-fast service.

 

[The Planner]

I wrote five or six minutes. If one allows a two minute station stop at OOC and a minute and a half lost in braking and another minute in accelerating to an 80mph line speed (or thereabouts) for the last couple of miles into Paddington the train will, on these figures, take about four and a half minutes longer to reach its destination. So I exaggerated a bit - but not much. One thing the Corona virus has shown is that without passengers trains can maintain their sectional timings quite well; at the start of the 'lockdown' it was reported that on some days all trains were on time. So it seems that the timetable rules have underestimated the dwell times needed for normal passenger flows and especially those needed at peak times.

Still won't be that long, a stop at Didcot on a 125mph section costs 4½ minutes. Not sure Coronavirus has enabled being able to keep SRTs as they will be fixed on trains starting moving and stopping, dwells I agree with but that is down to historical values and the issues that increasing them has. If we can increase them we are, but I suspect you can work out the issues of wholesale adding of several minutes on a stopper.

Real Time Trains shows that IETs are now typically scheduled for 23mins down, so adding another four or five minutes for a stop at OOC will, as I wrote, make the Paddington - Reading time equivalent, within a minute or so, to that achieved 50 years ago. This slowing will carry right through to the end of the journey - it is not, repeat not, simply an issue that effects Reading.

This is another question Ive raised on this forum when the "oh, it was faster 50 years ago" and don't get an answer or view on. Unless people are comparing completely the same thing and taking into account modern factors then its irrelevant. How much faster should we be achieving over those timescales? 5 minutes quicker, 10? How quick should services be compared to now in 30 years?

 

[Mikey C]

Depends on the additional price HEx charges. Depends on destination. Depends on prior knowledge of fares and frequencies/being alert enough to learn that knowledge.

You are going to arrive at OOC/Paddington 10-20 minutes later than if you stayed on. If that doesn't bother you, then you'd probably just take the half-hourly Elizabeth line train from T5 and save the hassle of faffing around at Central.

If you are going to do this to save money, and are going to Central London, then you'd probably just use the £3.10 Piccadilly line fare and save a further £7 as hassle and time aren't a big issue for you.

Airport staff going to West London - those are the key people who'd do this change: they want to get home as fast as possible (so won't wait for the 2tph Liz if they can get on an earlier one from T4) and don't want HEx destinations. A fair few people, but a fair few people who already do this or travel by other modes, so not really a grabbing of HEx passengers.

With the current T4 to Central shuttle, people are already used to changing trains to get to Paddington.

Most people aren't going to Paddington as their final destination. If you want to change say to Thameslink, or the Jubilee/Northern Lines when in central London, why change at Paddington for an onward train when you can change at the same platform at Heathrow Central? AND pay less? AND get a seat.

As for the Piccadilly Line, it's a major step down in comfort from the Class 345s

 

[Mikey C]

I suspect T4 isn't long for this world, though the station may remain as a place to reverse the trains and for airport employees and others. I've already made the point that most Crossrail trains will be overtaken between Central and OOC.

In which case no way would TfL run trains to Heathrow Central, kick off all the passengers and then run into T4 to reverse and come back, instead of running trains to T5 instead. Politically that would be a nonsense, and an agreement would be made with Heathrow to run most trains to T5

 

[quantinghome]

Not at all - it makes it more economical. Basic supply and demand!

Let's say continuing with a £20 fare means they get 10 passengers per train as most people decide that the £10 premium is too high a price - that's £200/train in revenue.
But if they lowered it to £12 - a premium of about £2 vs TfL - they might be able to persuade 150 passengers to board each train. Because £2 could very well be worth the quicker time to OOC/Paddington vs TfL. That's £1800/train in revenue.

HEx is running the trains whatever, but demand is much lowered due to the competition, so it needs to maximise revenue per train. The marginal costs per passenger are low, so it has two ways to go - rely on a handful of total idiots paying £100 each (perhaps because it is £100), or getting the masses on by not charging that much more than TfL.

But it's never going to get 'the masses' back with a more competitive price, because Crossrail will be vastly better connected to major centres of demand (West End, City, Canary Wharf). HEx will not be able to make up for passengers lost to Crossrail by reducing its premium. The only passengers who will continue to use HEx are those who are able to access Paddington more easily than Crossrail - i.e. limited parts of west london, and those who prefer taxis to the underground. Also a proportion of HS2 passengers changing at OOC for Heathrow. Whatever pricing strategy it adopts, it will have a much reduced revenue compared to today.

We don't know what level of profit HAL makes from HEx, but given it has no subsidy and there is no franchise commitment to run the service it will be interesting to see what happens to it once it loses a big chunk of its revenue.

 

[matt_world2004]

In which case no way would TfL run trains to Heathrow Central, kick off all the passengers and then run into T4 to reverse and come back, instead of running trains to T5 instead. Politically that would be a nonsense, and an agreement would be made with Heathrow to run most trains to T5

If TfL had to run trains to terminal 4 because of capacity issues at terminal 5, they wouldn't run it out of service. even if the terminal is closed. Airport staff and contractors could still use these trains to travel to work. The general principle of transport planning is that if it is cost neutral to do something and it produces a passenger benefit, even if its a benefit for a very small amount of passengers to do it. The trains running to terminal 4 is a fixed cost weather they do it in or out of service.

 

[Bald Rick]

If TfL had to run trains to terminal 4 because of capacity issues at terminal 5, they wouldn't run it out of service. even if the terminal is closed. Airport staff and contractors could still use these trains to travel to work. The general principle of transport planning is that if it is cost neutral to do something and it produces a passenger benefit, even if its a benefit for a very small amount of passengers to do it. The trains running to terminal 4 is a fixed cost weather they do it in or out of service.

They’d be out of service if the T4 station was closed!

 

[matt_world2004]

They’d be out of service if the T4 station was closed!

Why. The terminal isn't empty

 

[quantinghome]

Why. The terminal isn't empty

I understand the underlying assumption is that T4 terminal would be closed:

I suspect T4 isn't long for this world, though the station may remain as a place to reverse the trains and for airport employees and others.

 

[matt_world2004]

I understand the underlying assumption is that T4 terminal would be closed:

Oh permenantly? Because currently it still requires a staff presence for security and maintenance even if it is closed to the public. If a train is running out of service there it is better to run the train in service for the few members of staff that benefit from it as there is no cost differential between running a train out of service and in service

 

[si404]

With the current T4 to Central shuttle, people are already used to changing trains to get to Paddington.

True, the very small number of people at T4 do have to change trains. I suspect that, actually, most of them going to London, when the next departure is the shuttle, just wait for the half-hourly direct train. Just as they will at T5 if they don't want to pay HEx prices - the annoyance of changing can overrule the annoyance of waiting for quite a period of time.

Most people aren't going to Paddington as their final destination.

I did say it depends on destination. But if you want to go somewhere that's served with a change at Paddington, then you'll do that rather than change at Central. I should point out that you gave three off-Elizabeth line corridors: Jubilee, Northern and Thameslink. I'll add the Central line too. Now, certainly these are important routes, but they aren't all the routes: it doesn't kill off all the demand for HEx.

AND get a seat.

Yeah, because there'll be zero seats on the Elizabeth line trains entering service at OOC/Paddington!

As for the Piccadilly Line, it's a major step down in comfort from the Class 345s

I agree that people would value the comfort - but why would people happy to pay £7 more for a comfier train not be open to the idea of paying more to save 10-20 minutes?

Like I've repeatedly said: it all depends on how much extra it will cost to use HEx vs Liz.

Crossrail will be vastly better connected to major centres of demand (West End, City, Canary Wharf).

The West End isn't just Oxford Street. And there's far more to Heathrow's catchment area than London's CBDs.

You, like Mikey C, are overegging the Elizabeth line pudding. It's a game changer for sure and HEx will need to adapt, but it's not the game ender you are asserting it is - there's still going to be a market for HEx providing HEx price their fares right.

 

[hwl]

Oh permenantly? Because currently it still requires a staff presence for security and maintenance even if it is closed to the public. If a train is running out of service there it is better to run the train in service for the few members of staff that benefit from it as there is no cost differential between running a train out of service and in service

They want to expand T2 and redevelop T3 which would see T4 closing. T4's location causes big issues with over runway /taxiway efficiency

 

[matt_world2004]

They want to expand T2 and redevelop T3 which would see T4 closing. T4's location causes big issues with over runway /taxiway efficiency

If that happens . The trains would not run out of service to terminal 4. They would probably put a turn back at Heathrow central in that case.

 

[edwin_m]

They want to expand T2 and redevelop T3 which would see T4 closing. T4's location causes big issues with over runway /taxiway efficiency

That's the expansionary view, and if it a combination of covid and decarbonization permanently reduces demand then closing T4 is the most likely response. The station might be kept as a reversing siding if there are capacity issues with running to T5 (as there are) or turning back at T2, but this might require the trains to be checked clear of passengers at T2 unless they can do what I believe they plan for Paddington turnbacks.

Alternatively the station might remain open for employees in that part of the airport and nearby housing that's over a mile from other stations. And someone might realise there's excellent development potential in a brownfield site with a ready-made station having excellent connections across London, and rename it the North Bedfont Alacrity Zone or something similar.

 

[TFN]

Providing the Western Rail link to Heathrow opens around the same time as OOC, I would guess HeX would become a mix between StanEx and GatEx.

Paddington - OOC - Heathrow T2/3 - Heathrow T5 - Slough - alternating between Maidenhead and Twyford - Reading

Hence HeX doesn't really touch Crossrail's market, Paddington still has an "express service" to the airport and passengers changing between HS2 and Heathrow have a fast train rather than jumping on a train that's slower, less comfortable, no toilets and full of commuters in the peaks. Anyway if a passenger has a Birmingham to Heathrow Rail ticket via HS2 it wouldn't cost them any more to use HeX.

 

[Trailfinder]

Just for information.

There are currently 5 hotels at T4.

The Yotel on the mezzanine level at the eastern end of the terminal.

The Hilton, Crown Plaza, Holiday Inn and Premier Inn; all accessed via the walkway from the departure level at Zone G.

 

[Ianno87]

Just for information.

There are currently 5 hotels at T4.

The Yotel on the mezzanine level at the eastern end of the terminal.

The Hilton, Crown Plaza, Holiday Inn and Premier Inn; all accessed via the walkway from the departure level at Zone G.

Hotels can be moved, or accessed via shuttle buses as is commonplace for many existing hotels around the perimiter (but remote from terminals) today.

 

[quantinghome]

You, like Mikey C, are overegging the Elizabeth line pudding. It's a game changer for sure and HEx will need to adapt, but it's not the game ender you are asserting it is - there's still going to be a market for HEx providing HEx price their fares right.

I'm not asserting that. I don't have the catchment data for HEx passengers so I can't tell whether or not HEx will survive. Yes, there will always be a market for it. But its costs are pretty much fixed - they can't drop the frequency without losing more passengers - and there's only so much they can do in terms of flexing fares to maximise revenue. It's possible HEx might not be around in the future, but who knows? It depends how many passengers it can keep and how many it gets from OOC.

 

[edwin_m]

Providing the Western Rail link to Heathrow opens around the same time as OOC, I would guess HeX would become a mix between StanEx and GatEx.

Paddington - OOC - Heathrow T2/3 - Heathrow T5 - Slough - alternating between Maidenhead and Twyford - Reading

Hence HeX doesn't really touch Crossrail's market, Paddington still has an "express service" to the airport and passengers changing between HS2 and Heathrow have a fast train rather than jumping on a train that's slower, less comfortable, no toilets and full of commuters in the peaks. Anyway if a passenger has a Birmingham to Heathrow Rail ticket via HS2 it wouldn't cost them any more to use HeX.

I think it would be pretty pointless to through-route Hex to the Western Rail Link because it's only providing a slower alternative to the GWML. If both are built one or other of the Western and Southern links probably has to terminate at T5 for capacity reasons (there are empty platforms there for that reason). As a through service the Southern provides much more benefit due to the extra access to OOC and Paddington.

 

[CW2]

When considering the traffic flows at OOC, it's easy to fall into the trap of thinking they are symmetrical through the day. They are not. For example, if I commuted from Oxford to Canary Wharf, my preferred morning journey would be fast GW service to OOC to join an (empty) Crossrail train starting from there. I would be willing to trade a little journey time in favour of a seat on Crossrail, which is why I would join a train starting at OOC rather than taking my chance at Paddington. Conversely, in the evening I would alight from my Crossrail train at Paddington so as to join my GW service home to Oxford with the best chance of getting a seat.

With the density of services on the GWML, once you stop one train on the fast lines at OOC, you have to stop them all. So it's an "all or nothing" choice to be had. I hope "all" becomes the chosen answer.

There's little point fixating on the Reading - Paddington journey time. There are very few people who travel only as far as Paddington (other than rail staff). Paddington is mainly an interchange, not a destination in its own right. It is the end-to-end journey times that count. The comprehensive multi-line interchange at OOC produces an overall benefit in this regard.