Rail services to be increased on May 18th

[87015]

Fits with lots of work being done on how to manage platforms being closed for entry until capacity is proven up the line.

 

[StephenHunter]

Shapps can spout what he likes, this certainly is not workable.

Definitely not. 50% sounds more reasonable.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Northern - are you listening? No more two-coach trains! Be prepared for the world to return to work even if only a couple of percent actually go back on Monday week.

Yup need to bang a pacer on the back of every 150 so lets hope they've looked after the ones stored

 

[nedchester]

That will have to change at some stage. If other countries can get by without 10% maximum capacity, we will be able to.

Shapps knows 10% is not practical but hasn't got the balls to admit it. I await to see all the people who normally commute from Chorley or Bolton to Manchester taking to their bikes.

 

[MDB1images]

I wonder what proportion of workers live close enough to walk and/or cycle to work vs. those who commute a bit further away making that idea unrealistic

I do a 50 mile round trip to get to my office but luckily enough I can work from home and there is now serious talk of me doing that on a long term basis with a visit to the office maybe once a week

Indeed, can't see that money being of much use to the majority of commuters.
Plenty cycle to the nearest local station but then commute distances that aren't realistic to cycle on a daily basis.
Might be of use to a few London commuters who might use TFL transport and some other cities but for the majority it's of little help.

A better plan on how to tackle the elephent in the room of mass commuting versus a reduced safety distancing capacity is needed as it's not going to go away and a robust system needs looking at.

 

[yorksrob]

Shapps knows 10% is not practical but hasn't got the balls to admit it. I await to see all the people who normally commute from Chorley or Bolton to Manchester taking to their bikes.

Perhaps he's waiting for another country to try it out at a more reasonable distance, then will change. We can hope.

 

[Class83]

What is the definition of a "desk job"?

Essentially one where you are able to carry out your job with a computer connected to the internet and a phone.

Some people will be able to carry out the whole of their job this way, others only on some days and will need to attend a physical workplace on the other days to complete activities which they can't from home.

It's not saying everyone can or can't work from home, it's saying that we need as much of the economy as possible operating (clearly e.g. nightclubs aren't reopening soon) with as few people as possible travelling to make this happen. If many people reduce, even partially the number of days per week they travel to work, this can be achieved.

 

[trebor79]

Shapps is in cloud cuckoo land. Yes lots of people have been cycling and walking - for pleasure not to get to work!
I can't see many people cycling from say Kings Lynn to Cambridge on an average day.

The government response to this situation is rapidly descending into farce.

Running mass transit at 10% capacity is just stupid. It would be cheaper and more practical to shut all the railways and buy everyone an electric car.

 

[ChrisC]

Northern - are you listening? No more two-coach trains! Be prepared for the world to return to work even if only a couple of percent actually go back on Monday week.

Exactly, but it’s not just Northern. There are so many routes between major cities outside of the South East operated with 2 and 3 carriage trains. In addition to Northern I think EMR and XC will also have big problems with capacity quite soon after passenger numbers begin to rise. On many of these routes trains even off peak have been full to capacity with standing passengers for years.

 

[JonathanH]

Northern - are you listening? No more two-coach trains! Be prepared for the world to return to work even if only a couple of percent actually go back on Monday week.

Northern can listen but are powerless, their fleet is finite.

If many people reduce, even partially the number of days per week they travel to work, this can be achieved

What this, of course, forgets is that if office workers don't return, which seems very likely, then most of the people who support them are going to find themselves with no business. If office workers don't go to their offices, their canteens will have no business, the office won't need cleaning, there won't be a need for the city centre shops to open...

As my employer put it, regarding office workers going back to the office, “it’s going to be a very small percentage of our population, we believe that is going to be roughly 25% for six to nine months”.

 

[nedchester]

Perhaps he's waiting for another country to try it out at a more reasonable distance, then will change. We can hope.

You mean like Germany?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Northern can listen but are powerless, their fleet is finite.



What this, of course, forgets is that if office workers don't return, which seems very likely, then most of the people who support them are going to find themselves with no business. If office workers don't go to their offices, their canteens will have no business, the office won't need cleaning, there won't be a need for the city centre shops to open...

As my employer put it, regarding office workers going back to the office, “it’s going to be a very small percentage of our population, we believe that is going to be roughly 25% for six to nine months”.

For the time being most food and drink outlets will remain shut and i reckon most shops will do the same all the while they can furlough staff so a lot of demand wont be there anyhow. So initially it may be possible on some routes but what is not explained is who is going to be the arbiter of whether your allowed on or not? Certainly can't expect DOO drivers to do this but maybe guarded trains could do it but once your full are you right away to the main destination? The only real way this has a chance of working is to max length all trains and anything thats stored needs to be utilsed. Forget PRM compliance its capacity that matters currently and quite frankly the PRM community should be provided with a dedicated road based transport solution during the crisis anyhow.
The railway industry needs to rise to this challenge as although not as bad as the airlines social distancing is a real constraint but it can be imaginative to find workarounds and if timetables need rejigging that they need to be done quickly not the current 12-18 month lead time Also all performance measuring needs to be suspended this is about maximising capacity not reliability.

 

[yorksrob]

You mean like Germany?

Anywhere. They can't all be working on max 10% capacity.

 

[nedchester]

Anywhere. They can't all be working on max 10% capacity.

Germany isn't, just requiring people to walk face coverings.

 

[darloscott]

Shapps can spout what he likes, this certainly is not workable.

Spot on.
Here's one tiny example from my experience.
I'm a coach driver (currently furlough) and we mainly (I'd say 80% of our work) do home to school/college transport. Looking at one school as an easy example, we carry 200 kids on 3 coaches every day, there and back. These vehicles do other runs after but for this example we'll assume they don't. Based on 2m separation we can probably carry 12-15 on one vehicle, but to keep the numbers simple we'll say 10 (we're currently running with 9 on a 35 seater). Assuming even half of the kids go back to school that's 100 to transport, requiring 10 vehicle trips, so if we take the current 3 vehicles (& drivers) that's 3-4 trips each just to get 100 kids to school - and the same going back again. There is not the capacity either within our company or physically at the school to fit 10 coaches in one go.
I just don't see how this is possible, not just in my selfish example but widely.

 

[yorksrob]

Germany isn't, just requiring people to walk face coverings.

Indeed. If they don't suffer from a major increase in the infection rate, it will demonstrate that normal public transport loadings, albeit wearing face masks, don't lead to an increase in infections.

 

[6862]

The more I read and hear about likely transport restrictions, the more I start to feel like long distance travel might be easier now (in lockdown) than it is likely to be post-lockdown. At the moment it sounds like trains are totally empty, but if they are soon to be restricted to 10 % capacity, this will make long distance travel impossible.

 

[bramling]

For the time being most food and drink outlets will remain shut and i reckon most shops will do the same all the while they can furlough staff so a lot of demand wont be there anyhow. So initially it may be possible on some routes but what is not explained is who is going to be the arbiter of whether your allowed on or not? Certainly can't expect DOO drivers to do this but maybe guarded trains could do it but once your full are you right away to the main destination? The only real way this has a chance of working is to max length all trains and anything thats stored needs to be utilsed. Forget PRM compliance its capacity that matters currently and quite frankly the PRM community should be provided with a dedicated road based transport solution during the crisis anyhow.
The railway industry needs to rise to this challenge as although not as bad as the airlines social distancing is a real constraint but it can be imaginative to find workarounds and if timetables need rejigging that they need to be done quickly not the current 12-18 month lead time Also all performance measuring needs to be suspended this is about maximising capacity not reliability.

The problem is platform lengths in many cases - for something like Northern you can’t always just readily grab a Pacer out of store and bolt it on the back, as it will overhang platforms. Likewise many TOCs already work on the basis of much of their fleet being out during the day, and that which isn’t is generally being maintained.

Those TOCs who will manage will perhaps be those who normally max out their train lengths carrying a high proportion of office workers, many of whom will no doubt be either working from home or in some cases absent due to shielding.

Then there’s key workers to provide for too, they still need to be transported safely and punctually to their essential jobs.

 

[JonathanH]

The more I read and hear about likely transport restrictions, the more I start to feel like long distance travel might be easier now (in lockdown) than it is likely to be post-lockdown. At the moment it sounds like trains are totally empty, but if they are soon to be restricted to 10 % capacity, this will make long distance travel impossible.

Who is going to be making long distance journeys? The only suggestion is that people start to return to their primary workplace, not start travelling long distances - we will still be on 'lockdown'. So presumably some contractors.

 

[bramling]

The more I read and hear about likely transport restrictions, the more I start to feel like long distance travel might be easier now (in lockdown) than it is likely to be post-lockdown. At the moment it sounds like trains are totally empty, but if they are soon to be restricted to 10 % capacity, this will make long distance travel impossible.

I don’t necessarily think long-distance will be the problem, as there’s ways of managing demand - and things like compulsory reservations can be implemented. Yes there will be massive issues if and when all and sundry decide to try and take a long-distance train to Cornwall for a bank holiday weekend, for example, but most of the time I’m sure reduced travel needs will square off demand.

Commuter travel is a different proposition entirely, and I can see major difficulties.

 

[yorksrob]

The problem is platform lengths in many cases - for something like Northern you can’t always just readily grab a Pacer out of store and bolt it on the back, as it will overhang platforms. Likewise many TOCs already work on the basis of much of their fleet being out during the day, and that which isn’t is generally being maintained.

Those TOCs who will manage will perhaps be those who normally max out their train lengths carrying a high proportion of office workers, many of whom will no doubt be either working from home or in some cases absent due to shielding.

Then there’s key workers to provide for too, they still need to be transported safely and punctually to their essential jobs.

On Northern, there are a hell of a lot of routes which have doubled up units for a couple of peak services, but are single unit a lot of the time. The Hallam line for example. During the strike, my station had double 158's. The platform was slightly shorter than the formation, so they had to employ local boarding, but the platforms have since all been extended. That's plenty of scope for slapping a pacer on the back of the usual unit.

 

[6862]

Who is going to be making long distance journeys?

Personally, and this is something which is causing me a lot of worry at the moment hence my mentioning it elsewhere too, I will need to make one long distance journey if/when my place of work reopens, as I am currently stranded visiting family over 200 miles from home.

I agree however that most long distance travel will not be necessary from now on, but I imagine there are quite a few in a similar situation to myself.

 

[geoffk]

Shapps did briefing tonight and made the following statement


from this briefing

This is going to be hugely challenging for those on the front line as its unpolicable but what it must surely mean is that every operating carriage thats available, including stored non PRM compliant vehicles, needs to be pressed into use to maximise what capacity.

One in ten - that's about 30 on a four-car 150. How are they going to enforce it? By physically taking seats out - surely not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One in ten - that's about 30 on a four-car 150. How are they going to enforce it? By physically taking seats out - surely not.

I've started a thread on how you could - compulsory reservations on all mainline trains.

But for that capacity - best get those Pacers back out!

 

[bramling]

On Northern, there are a hell of a lot of routes which have doubled up units for a couple of peak services, but are single unit a lot of the time. The Hallam line for example. During the strike, my station had double 158's. The platform was slightly shorter than the formation, so they had to employ local boarding, but the platforms have since all been extended. That's plenty of scope for slapping a pacer on the back of the usual unit.

I suspect there will have to be some serious consideration to this sort of thing, if it’s not already happening. However using peak strengthening units isn’t always viable for all-day - apart from maintenance requirements (which for something like Northern is a particular headache due to the amount of units which outstable) and of course fuelling, many peak trips are fitted in by doing clever things like running ECS back to a destination to squeeze in an extra trip here or an extra unit for strengthening there.

Not saying it’s impossible, but running max formations day after day is going to prove challenging. And of course if it’s viable to keep some Pacers longer then we still have the issue of where do you stable them? Remembering that we’re still going to have a proportion of drivers off due to shielding, so there aren’t infinite staff to move trains around if you can find a rusty stabling point somewhere that has a few ostensibly usable roads.

In practice I suspect it will be a case of lay on something, perhaps a modified Saturday service, then try and respond to any real hot spots which flag up (especially if they end up getting unflattering media attention!).

Someone like GTR should be laughing - all those long 700s as well as 21 365s which stable between the peaks to play with! C2C will probably be okay too providing they can square up their high peak hours somehow.

 

[bramling]

One in ten - that's about 30 on a four-car 150. How are they going to enforce it? By physically taking seats out - surely not.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like plastic covers over selected seats, or even hazard tape. However we haven’t seen it yet I don’t believe - thusfar it’s been the case that once one arrives on the station then from then onwards it’s down to self enforcement. Certainly there’s been issues, east end of District Line in the mornings one such hotspot from what I hear.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect there will have to be some serious consideration to this sort of thing, if it’s not already happening. However using peak strengthening units isn’t always viable for all-day - apart from maintenance requirements (which for something like Northern is a particular headache due to the amount of units which outstable) and of course fuelling, many peak trips are fitted in by doing clever things like running ECS back to a destination to squeeze in an extra trip here or an extra unit for strengthening there.

Not saying it’s impossible, but running max formations day after day is going to prove challenging. And of course if it’s viable to keep some Pacers longer then we still have the issue of where do you stable them? Remembering that we’re still going to have a proportion of drivers off due to shielding, so there aren’t infinite staff to move trains around if you can find a rusty stabling point somewhere that has a few ostensibly usable roads.

In practice I suspect it will be a case of lay on something, perhaps a modified Saturday service, then try and respond to any real hot spots which flag up (especially if they end up getting unflattering media attention!).

Someone like GTR should be laughing - all those long 700s as well as 21 365s which stable between the peaks to play with! C2C will probably be okay too providing they can square up their high peak hours somehow.

I still think fundamentally that the distance between passengers will come down. It will be what happens on other transport systems globally that will inform it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I still think fundamentally that the distance between passengers will come down. It will be what happens on other transport systems globally that will inform it.

I suspect what we'll see is "one person per unit of seating" (i.e. row or bay of 4) plus masks. Even if masks aren't that effective, they could be used psychologically to "justify" a climbdown from the 2m in some circumstances, as I'd probably say the vast majority of the public think they might have at least some effect.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

There is also the issue of do key workers get priority if capacity is finite? Will they need to show some form of ID in order to be allowed onto the platforms? Who polices this?

 

[bramling]

I still think fundamentally that the distance between passengers will come down. It will be what happens on other transport systems globally that will inform it.

Yes it’s never really quite been achieved so far even in London. Ultimately people will do it, perhaps moan and sound off, and unfortunately this means there’s some likelihood we’ll see infections start rising again.

It simply won’t be viable to have supermarket-type scenes with people queuing outside stations. About the only place where that would just about work is the Waterloo & City Line! Key workers rely on being in particular places at particular times, and if they miss planned trains due to things like queues then things will start to break down. Fortunately most key workers don’t travel at traditional times.