Future Job Cuts?

[theironroad]

While I do feel fortunate being a TOC driver right now, if a suitable voluntary redundancy package was offered, I'd certainly look carefully at it.

Somehow not sure it will happen, especially after the debacle when Stagecoach offered VR when they started out with SWT, I'd imagine SWR may reflect on that although the circumstances we different.

 

[43066]

While I do feel fortunate being a TOC driver right now, if a suitable voluntary redundancy package was offered, I'd certainly look carefully at it.

Somehow not sure it will happen, especially after the debacle when Stagecoach offered VR when they started out with SWT, I'd imagine SWR may reflect on that although the circumstances we different.

I agree and I also feel fortunate to be in the driving grade.

We all know that TOCs rely heavily on overtime to run the normal timetable. Plus there are many, many drivers approaching retirement age so this will reduce headcount quickly.

Even if passenger numbers remain low, a full railway timetable will be seen essential to economic recovery. People need to be able to get to and from work, and travel widely around the UK for for work and leisure.

These are clearly unprecedented times, and I’d never say never, but we have a great deal more security than most.

 

[yorkie]

I agree and I also feel fortunate to be in the driving grade.

We all know that TOCs rely heavily on overtime to run the normal timetable. Plus there are many, many drivers approaching retirement age so this will reduce headcount quickly.

Even if passenger numbers remain low, a full railway timetable will be seen essential to economic recovery. People need to be able to get to and from work, and travel widely around the UK for for work and leisure.

These are clearly unprecedented times, and I’d never say never, but we have a great deal more security than most.

I completely agree with you on what should happen but there appears to be dark forces wanting to restrict travel until the pandemic is over (ie. Potentially 12 to 18 months) for example there is a campaign to deny entry into Devon and Cornwall until such time.

I really do fear that so many millions are going to lose their livelihoods and we are going to make huge mistakes economically; the rail industry isn't guaranteed to come out well if we don't make the right choices. And every day I increasingly fear we are going to be making disastrous choices that will be far more harmful for the majority of people.

I hope my fears aren't realised but it's very scary reading how some people wish for actions to be taken that could ruin the economy in an unimaginable way; this includes some unions too.

 

[43066]

I really do fear that so many millions are going to lose their livelihoods and we are going to make huge mistakes economically; the rail industry isn't guaranteed to come out well if we don't make the right choices. And every day I increasingly fear we are going to be making disastrous choices that will be far more harmful for the majority of people.

I hope my fears aren't realised but it's very scary reading how some people wish for actions to be taken that could ruin the economy in an unimaginable way; this includes some unions too.

I completely agree.

Sadly I know several people in different industry sectors whose lives are being turned upside down, and might well be ruined by these measures, if they continue for much longer (as I’m sure we all do).

Politicians focus narrowly on the Covid19 death rates without considering the wider picture. It’s well known that mortality rates climb during times of economic recession/depression, and a severe recession might well cause more deaths than coronavirus!

I can’t help but think we are rapidly reaching the point where the “cure” is worse than the disease.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I personally am more fearful atbout what might happen rather than the disease itself - and the legacy its going to leave. Many people are scared to be near each other and people are losing their livelihoods and no doubt, their homes - everything they've ever worked for.

And the government is allowing this to happen. Many people are not getting the support they need

I have a very bad feeling about all of this and also suspect "dark forces" or foul play.

And if the disease is that bad, why is the Nightingale Hospital being stood down? Why are relatives not allowed to visit hospitals to visit ill/dying family? I have noticed an increase in security at hospital entrances turning people away

So many unanswered questions...

 

[Mag_seven]

Can I remind everyone that we are discussing future job cuts on this thread. There are plenty of other threads available to discuss other issues so please use them or you can start a new thread if need be.

 

[Mojo]

I am extremely worried about the obstinance of some of my colleagues and my and other trade unions in terms of getting public transport services back to full capacity (in terms of throughput of trains, not of customers). This is a moment where we should all be pulling together to help the country recover and getting people back to work. As it stands the current level of service isn't even really helping key workers - I have had to use alternative transport methods to and from my shifts more often than I have used public transport simply because key trains around shift changeover times have either been subject to planned or unplanned cancellations. We want to be deemed an essential service but can't even run a skeleton service for key workers.

 

[bramling]

I am extremely worried about the obstinance of some of my colleagues and my and other trade unions in terms of getting public transport services back to full capacity (in terms of throughput of trains, not of customers). This is a moment where we should all be pulling together to help the country recover and getting people back to work. As it stands the current level of service isn't even really helping key workers - I have had to use alternative transport methods to and from my shifts more often than I have used public transport simply because key trains around shift changeover times have either been subject to planned or unplanned cancellations. We want to be deemed an essential service but can't even run a skeleton service for key workers.

Out of interest, what were these cancellations?

I can’t say I’ve experienced any over the last six weeks on my journeys, with one exception which was some planned alterations for cyclical engineering works (which one kind of has to accept as a consequence of having a rail service which starts very early and finishes very late), and even in this case I could have taken a replacement bus but instead opted to adjust my timings slightly to be able to get a different service which still got me where I needed to go.

The Underground has also delivered a fairly decent service. There’s been issues and stresses, and some of the headways could have been more effectively regulated, but again in my view the service has delivered the business. It’s regrettable they are still running an emergency service rather than with proper emergency timetables, but that’s sadly a management failure in a number of ways, simply down to good old fashioned lack of railway experience. Fortunately local staff expertise has acted as the get out of jail free card.

Perhaps others will have had different experiences, but I think in the whole the railway industry can hold its head fairly high in this - which bringing things back to topic puts it in good stead for the future.

The big difficulty going forwards continues to be shielding, and the number of staff unavailable in consequence. Unlike other industries we can’t just substitute staff at the drop of a hat, so it’s a much trickier problem to solve. Whichever way anyone looks at it, a full service can’t run when there’s a significant proportion of people missing who are crucial to delivering that full service.

 

[43066]

I am extremely worried about the obstinance of some of my colleagues and my and other trade unions in terms of getting public transport services back to full capacity (in terms of throughput of trains, not of customers). This is a moment where we should all be pulling together to help the country recover and getting people back to work. As it stands the current level of service isn't even really helping key workers - I have had to use alternative transport methods to and from my shifts more often than I have used public transport simply because key trains around shift changeover times have either been subject to planned or unplanned cancellations. We want to be deemed an essential service but can't even run a skeleton service for key workers.

Agreed.

Safety concerns are quite understandable but the rail unions concerned (including mine) are once again managing to come across in a way that won’t endear them to the public at large.

 

[Mojo]

Out of interest, what were these cancellations?

Well for a start both the Central and Metropolitan lines are not running the first trains - in the case of the former the train leaves at the same time but doesn't go through into Zone 1 and the latter the first train just isn't running.

There are regularly 40+ minute gaps in the Metropolitan line service; despite the website advertising a train every 15 minutes.

 

[HH]

Safety concerns are quite understandable but the rail unions concerned (including mine) are once again managing to come across in a way that won’t endear them to the public at large.

The reaction is knee-jerk; they can't help themselves.

The safety concerns are very real, but they won't be helping reassure people that it will be safe to use public transport. Are the unions part of the mysterious "dark forces" being referred to in this thread?

Even though I think that rail usage will be permanently lowered by the changes brought about by the pandemic, and I don't think it will recover that loss ever (it may gain new usage for completely different reasons, like the government making car use less attractive, but this is very different and will take some time), I do not think that there will be large job cuts in the industry. If there is an excess in some areas I think that everyone will be happy to let "natural wastage" take care of it, because there won't be a major change to services, even if usage has shrunk.

 

[Horizon22]

No, they're not. You can always point to the reasons behind changes in demand, and what drove rail usage up from the end of the 90s, was not the reverse of what had been driving usage down since the second World War, and so on.

We are going to take a permanent hit from covid-19. Maybe there will be an upturn in the future, but that will be for solid, socio-economic reasons, not merely because the wheel has turned a number of times.

I imagine it's going to be a lop-sided hit though. Maybe commuting will never return to its previous levels; impossible to social distance, more working from home, companies closing offices permanently, cost reasons. But leisure and/or business travel may return, especially if aviation takes such a drastic hit and fares increase, people might look to domestic rail travel for trips and holidays.

As for the point on staffing, some areas may see minor cuts but I reckon overall it will just lead to a recalibration - less reliance on rest day working for operational roles for instance

 

[deltic]

Given the TOCs are likely to remain on management contracts for some time with government calling the shots and demand collapsed I can see a big push to get DOO and DCO in place and a reduction in station staffing with large scale ticket office closures. TOCs are looking worryingly at how many of their customers seem to be working from home successfully. There is also a big push by business to cut down business travel now staff have got used to video conferencing. As others have said on board catering is also likely to go.

 

[Horizon22]

Well for a start both the Central and Metropolitan lines are not running the first trains - in the case of the former the train leaves at the same time but doesn't go through into Zone 1 and the latter the first train just isn't running.

There are regularly 40+ minute gaps in the Metropolitan line service; despite the website advertising a train every 15 minutes.

I've noticed the Met specifically become incredibly irregular - I don't have to use it to get to work and now avoid it entirely under the 'special service'.

 

[LowLevel]

Given the TOCs are likely to remain on management contracts for some time with government calling the shots and demand collapsed I can see a big push to get DOO and DCO in place and a reduction in station staffing with large scale ticket office closures. TOCs are looking worryingly at how many of their customers seem to be working from home successfully. There is also a big push by business to cut down business travel now staff have got used to video conferencing. As others have said on board catering is also likely to go.

I disagree - it requires capital investment and putting people out of jobs is not a favourable outcome at the moment. On many franchise the benefits even financially on the Government's own terms are negligible to non existent - my own franchise came up with a saving of a few million quid at most over 20 years. West Coast came out negative IE DOO/DCO would cost more than maintaining the status quo.

Perhaps TOCs like XC who have up to 4 staff per 4 car train might be vulnerable to some rationalisation, who knows.

 

[HH]

Given the TOCs are likely to remain on management contracts for some time with government calling the shots and demand collapsed I can see a big push to get DOO and DCO in place and a reduction in station staffing with large scale ticket office closures. TOCs are looking worryingly at how many of their customers seem to be working from home successfully. There is also a big push by business to cut down business travel now staff have got used to video conferencing. As others have said on board catering is also likely to go.

PW has lost his enthusiasm for DOO, but certainly I can see Ticket Office reductions. These have been happening for a while under the radar, driven by a change to buying online. Online ticketing is DfT policy, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that ramp up.

They're not interfering much in the current EMA, because everyone is focussed on C19, but I cannot see things going back to normal when that ends and DfT does try and push policy when it has the chance. The next arrangement, whatever it is (definitely has not yet been decided), may see DfT including mandated changes.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Companies will be a bit less fussed about experience within the industry and focus a little more on potential new employees who have an ounce of common sense. People are going to have to shift industries because not all of the roles which were there pre-COVID-19, are going to exist post-COVID-19.

Obviously experience helps especially from a point of view of training, but maybe a company will take somebody on who has rubbed shoulders with that industry, rather than having had actual experience within that industry. Conversely, people will have to self-learn a bit more so that interviews come across somewhat more professional.