Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[nlogax]

The theory in certain papers is that Tuesday 26 May is the likeliest date for the lockdown to be lifted, on the grounds that this will prevent people being let out for the coming bank holiday weekends to have massive parties and social gatherings which would risk the virus spreading all over again.

I'd prefer the idea of moving the bank holiday out by a couple of weeks so that whatever's left of lockdown isn't bound to waiting until the last few days of May.. but what do I know? I guess any Bank Holiday at this point in the Covid year is going to be a risky endeavor in terms of wanting to prevent a second wave of infection.

 

[trebor79]

In the first week of the lockdown, Cumbria Police reported a significant number of people coming from well outside the area on trips to the Lakes.

Yes, they did. And unlocking just before a BH would make it happen again.

So what? If the cafes, shops and pubs are all shut people won't be crammed together. You're not going to catch anything from a days fell walking or sat eating a picnic on a lake shore.
Just another example of over-zealous policing.

 

[HH]

So what? If the cafes, shops and pubs are all shut people won't be crammed together. You're not going to catch anything from a days fell walking or sat eating a picnic on a lake shore.

Quite. Plus that was a long time ago in covid terms; people - and police - understand the rules rather better now.

As many people have said recently, "Treat the public like adults" (and they will respond like adults). It really works.

 

[Mag_seven]

The theory in certain papers is that Tuesday 26 May is the likeliest date for the lockdown to be lifted

The lockdown will not be "lifted", it will be "eased".

 

[HH]

The lockdown will not be "lifted", it will be "eased".

True and because our lockdown wasn't as draconian as others to start with, the change will likely not be as large as seen elsewhere.

 

[bramling]

The theory in certain papers is that Tuesday 26 May is the likeliest date for the lockdown to be lifted, on the grounds that this will prevent people being let out for the coming bank holiday weekends to have massive parties and social gatherings which would risk the virus spreading all over again.

Great, so we’re stuck with it for longer because people demonstrated they can’t be trusted to be sensible, just like with the panic buying and toilet rolls.

I can’t see it being lifted yet for the reason that the infection rate is still disappointingly high.

 

[Huntergreed]

Great, so we’re stuck with it for longer because people demonstrated they can’t be trusted to be sensible, just like with the panic buying and toilet rolls.

I can’t see it being lifted yet for the reason that the infection rate is still disappointingly high.

I think that once the five tests have been met, NHS can cope (they currently can), consistent fall in deaths (which is being shown), infection rate decreasing (increased testing showing more infections so it's hard to know this yet), sorting out testing and PPE (testing goal was met and I'm hearing fewer complaints about PPE) and that there isn't as much risk of a second peak (which can only be known after), they will struggle to justify the lockdown being kept in place, especially when people notice that these tests have been met, they can't just keep us in because they don't trust us to behave, too many people and the media would start to be sceptical if the tests are met but they're not doing anything.

 

[HH]

I think that once the five tests have been met, NHS can cope (they currently can), consistent fall in deaths (which is being shown), infection rate decreasing (increased testing showing more infections so it's hard to know this yet), sorting out testing and PPE (testing goal was met and I'm hearing fewer complaints about PPE) and that there isn't as much risk of a second peak (which can only be known after), they will struggle to justify the lockdown being kept in place, especially when people notice that these tests have been met, they can't just keep us in because they don't trust us to behave, too many people and the media would start to be sceptical if the tests are met but they're not doing anything.

All true, but why would they want to anyway? People are posting like the government wants to keep us in lockdown for some nefarious purpose.

 

[Bletchleyite]

All true, but why would they want to anyway? People are posting like the government wants to keep us in lockdown for some nefarious purpose.

It very much doesn't. Bojo is a right wing libertarian. Libertarians don't like taking peoples' liberty without a very good reason.

 

[bramling]

All true, but why would they want to anyway? People are posting like the government wants to keep us in lockdown for some nefarious purpose.

I don’t think they do, indeed the half-hearted lockdown has shown that. However I think it’s clear they are scared of it flaring up again. It would be very difficult to implement a second panic-lockdown, especially soon after the first, and there’s no doubt a genuine concern that people will go mad once released which could be the touch paper to set off a second wave.

It’s quite clear Boris didn’t really want a lockdown in the first place. It really did feel like a last resort.

 

[HH]

I don’t think they do, indeed the half-hearted lockdown has shown that. However I think it’s clear they are scared of it flaring up again. It would be very difficult to implement a second panic-lockdown, especially soon after the first, and there’s no doubt a genuine concern that people will go mad once released which could be the touch paper to set off a second wave.

It’s quite clear Boris didn’t really want a lockdown in the first place. It really did feel like a last resort.

Yes, you're probably right on all those points, although I do wonder if catching covid-19 was Boris's "Road to Damascus".

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Yes, you're probably right on all those points, although I do wonder if catching covid-19 was Boris's "Road to Damascus".

Do you think if Donald Trump had caught covid-19 it would be his "Road to Domestos"?

 

[HH]

Do you think if Donald Trump had caught covid-19 it would be his "Road to Domestos"?

It's a shame we can't post likes or laughs on here sometimes!

 

[BJames]

I think I'd go with the idea of extending it, but announcing that after it there will likely be changes subject to the tests still being met. That gives a three week period for businesses to prepare for limited reopening.

I very much agree. We're not quite there yet but people need something to work towards.

The biggest challenge could well be convincing a scared public to start using public transport again. There's currently speculation that certain businesses would be exempt from the 2m social distancing rule provided other preventative measures are taken - I would hope that would apply to the railways, otherwise it simply won't be cost effective to run trains.

Seen the 2-metre blue signs on the floor pop up even outside my local Overground station (I can see it from the street as they start at the ticket office). While we're ok doing that for now, as many others have said, capacity is down to very low levels and it is not possible to maintain a 2 metre distance on trains when the mass return to work starts. A massive proportion of London, for example, do not have access to a car or bike and so will have no choice if they are expected to return to work on site. A potential for a return to those pictures of crammed central line trains a couple of days into lockdown, perhaps...

We have to learn to live with it. We can't stay cooped up at home, with children and young people not being educated and millions unemployed. That's no future at all.

Reminded of something I saw on social media this week... "we can't stop living to avoid dying"... we can't go on like this, a slow return to life needs to start sometime.

Elsewhere, I'm at university and we were (rightly) asked to return home early, with our learning continuing online. It is very worrying to consider a world in which we will still have to do distance learning in September, with social distancing pretty well putting an end to in-person lectures if this is still the situation then. It's hard to do and the quality of learning delivered online is not the same, despite what the universities minister and other figures want us to think.

 

[trebor79]

Elsewhere, I'm at university and we were (rightly) asked to return home early, with our learning continuing online. It is very worrying to consider a world in which we will still have to do distance learning in September, with social distancing pretty well putting an end to in-person lectures if this is still the situation then. It's hard to do and the quality of learning delivered online is not the same, despite what the universities minister and other figures want us to think.

Absolutely agree with you. There's no substitute for an engaging in person lecture, not to mention smaller group sessions such as seminars. Video stuff is ok as far as it goes, but it's nowhere near as good.
The opportunity to ask questions is lower, and you miss out on all the learning opportunities from interacting with your course mates. I recall many a conversation in the JCR where people helped explain concepts that others were finding difficult to grasp.
Plus there's loads of distractions at home. It's not a brilliant working or learning environment.

 

[Class83]

Many businesses which are legally allowed to be open are closed, the government are currently running a big push of 'nudge' efforts to get them to reopen. Those who can work from home (office workers) should expect to do so until a vaccine is provided. The good thing about this is that most office jobs are in city centres, so there should be a significant reduction in the numbers using public transport. Grant Shapps was on TV yesterday encouraging people to walk or cycle in, but running as full a schedule of trains and bussed as possible will be needed soon to maintain any semblance of space. I expect masks, or at least face coverings to be required.

 

[BJames]

Many businesses which are legally allowed to be open are closed, the government are currently running a big push of 'nudge' efforts to get them to reopen. Those who can work from home (office workers) should expect to do so until a vaccine is provided. The good thing about this is that most office jobs are in city centres, so there should be a significant reduction in the numbers using public transport. Grant Shapps was on TV yesterday encouraging people to walk or cycle in, but running as full a schedule of trains and bussed as possible will be needed soon to maintain any semblance of space. I expect masks, or at least face coverings to be required.

So do I. The hourly service on my London Overground route, even with 8 coaches, won't cut it for much longer. It's just a case of having enough staff to run it, which is probably going to be the biggest issue with capacity if we've got a lot self-isolating.

Absolutely agree with you. There's no substitute for an engaging in person lecture, not to mention smaller group sessions such as seminars. Video stuff is ok as far as it goes, but it's nowhere near as good.
The opportunity to ask questions is lower, and you miss out on all the learning opportunities from interacting with your course mates. I recall many a conversation in the JCR where people helped explain concepts that others were finding difficult to grasp.
Plus there's loads of distractions at home. It's not a brilliant working or learning environment.

Quite. One of my tutors is trying to use the platform Microsoft Teams - a more professional version of Skype, I suppose, with the ability to verify that we are a University student as we are using the University account. I actually found it quite useful just to tune in almost as a focused hour's work session, although diagnosing problems is beginning to be quite difficult when the tutor is located over 100 miles away from me.

 

[Killingworth]

I can't help a wry smile when I think of how well signs stuck on the floor will be obeyed when it gets busy. Driving down the M11 there are signs warning to keep 2 sets of chevrons apart. At busy times that's the maximum cars are often apart, even at 75! Human nature I'm afraid, but at first it may work as offenders are given the evil eye.

If they're only obeyed for a couple of months by the majority they'll be a help.

If we want to preserve public transport in the longer term we have to get a lot of people back safely and soon. Running empty buses, trains, ships and aircraft for only a few months is unsustainable. The current reverse marketing has been an incredible success. Travel and likely die isn't a great motivator to travel by train!

 

[Tomp94]

Cmon Borris, allow a lil non essential travel, I want to go on a train again!

it would seem that this country, like much of the world, is going to be stuffed economically at a level not seen since world war 2.

as for my workplace, currently, it’s in a community centre, and even if restrictions are lifted, it won’t get much income. It has a nursery during the morning which gives significant income, so they should return. Then a learning disabled group, who probably won’t return, along with many of the elderly and frail, who even if otherwise well, and with no nhs letter, wI’ll opt to stay away. Not to mention the many business meetings which now won’t happen, or other social activities that take place at the Centre, like yoga. We have a beer Yoga (yes )
a chair yoga, maybe someone could run a social distance yoga.

pubs, restaurants etc, I can see being closed for many months. Until and if a vaccine is available.

but there becomes a point where you just HAVE to open everything up again. Because there may never be a vaccine.
At this point, we’ll just have to let nature do it’s culling of the human species until the virus burns itself out or mutates into something less deadly.

 

[yorkie]

Cmon Borris, allow a lil non essential travel, I want to go on a train again!

it would seem that this country, like much of the world, is going to be stuffed economically at a level not seen since world war 2.

as for my workplace, currently, it’s in a community centre, and even if restrictions are lifted, it won’t get much income. It has a nursery during the morning which gives significant income, so they should return. Then a learning disabled group, who probably won’t return, along with many of the elderly and frail, who even if otherwise well, and with no nhs letter, wI’ll opt to stay away. Not to mention the many business meetings which now won’t happen, or other social activities that take place at the Centre, like yoga. We have a beer Yoga (yes )
a chair yoga, maybe someone could run a social distance yoga.

pubs, restaurants etc, I can see being closed for many months. Until and if a vaccine is available.

but there becomes a point where you just HAVE to open everything up again..

I agree and I know many others who are reaching the same conclusion.

But those who take the opposite view are extremely vocal and so I fear that we are going to end up with a situation where for many life is not worth living

The suggestions that are put forward by some are unworkable and unsustainable and will cause huge economic hardship.

For most people the virus is mild but the effects of the steps taken to reduce its spread will have a profound effect.

A sensible balance should be struck but I fear that won't happen; if people fear the virus too much it's going to cause so many other problems and ruin the livelihood of millions of people. I know some people say that doesn't matter but they are not seeing the bigger picture.

 

[nedchester]

I agree and I know many others who are reaching the same conclusion.

But those who take the opposite view are extremely vocal and so I fear that we are going to end up with a situation where for many life is not worth living

The suggestions that are put forward by some are unworkable and unsustainable and will cause huge economic hardship.

For most people the virus is mild but the effects of the steps taken to reduce its spread will have a profound effect.

A sensible balance should be struck but I fear that won't happen; if people fear the virus too much it's going to cause so many other problems and ruin the livelihood of millions of people. I know some people say that doesn't matter but they are not seeing the bigger picture.

I agree with that completely.

The problem is that many are not looking at the bigger picture. Yes, the virus can be fatal for a number of people and there have been thousands of deaths.....BUT there are many millions of others that are going to be affected with this in the small, medium and long term. The consequences of these longer term issue don't bear thinking about.

 

[Huntergreed]

Agree completely with the points above, however I do fear the worst. The ones who are the most vocal are definitely the ones who want the most draconian approach to be taken. I see everyday on Facebook and other media people shouting that the lockdown should not end until a vaccine comes out, that people will not send their children to school until a vaccine comes out, and that people would refuse to work unless a vaccine is available because it’s unsafe. The government approach to the lockdown was too effective in that they may have essentially scared the nation into being afraid to start living life again over fears of the virus that, on an individual basis at least for a lot of these people, poses a somewhat low risk.

It doesn’t help that our PM was one of the unlucky few who ended up in ICU, I think that will definitely influence his decision to stop the suppression of the virus over restarting economic activity.

 

[HH]

I'm truly glad that all you political, economic and medical experts agree. You should clearly be running the country.

Back in the real world, what is likely to happen is that we will get to a test, track and trace system in place within a few weeks and at that point measures will start to be lifted. The speed at which they're lifted will depend on what the government's experts think is happening to R. For some time to come, a sizeable minority will lock themselves down, no matter what the government says, but many of those aren't in the working population and the others will gradually see sense. Some activities will not get back to normal for a long time; we'll all have to live with it. The economy will take a huge hit and we'll have to live with that too.

 

[yorkie]

I'm truly glad that all you political, economic and medical experts agree. You should clearly be running the country.

Back in the real world, what is likely to happen is that we will get to a test, track and trace system in place within a few weeks and at that point measures will start to be lifted. The speed at which they're lifted will depend on what the government's experts think is happening to R. For some time to come, a sizeable minority will lock themselves down, no matter what the government says, but many of those aren't in the working population and the others will gradually see sense. Some activities will not get back to normal for a long time; we'll all have to live with it. The economy will take a huge hit and we'll have to live with that too.

Very risky approach; you're basically making light of putting many millions of people out of work for potentially a year or more. I am not at all convinced this plan is sustainable, affordable, realistic or sensible.

 

[philosopher]

I agree with that completely.

The problem is that many are not looking at the bigger picture. Yes, the virus can be fatal for a number of people and there have been thousands of deaths.....BUT there are many millions of others that are going to be affected with this in the small, medium and long term. The consequences of these longer term issue don't bear thinking about.

I know a lot of people like to think that it is a binary choice between the economy vs lives, however I do not think it is that straightforward. Ten years after the Great Depression the most destructive conflict in history occured, with the Great Depression being a big contributing factor in that war breaking out, which I think highlights the long term risks of a damaged economy. It is fine to try and to supress the spread of this virus, but I do think what they are doing needs to balanced against the long term impact such measures could have on the economy and people’s mental health.

 

[trebor79]

Rishi Sunak is already saying the furlough scheme is unsustainable, and he wants to begin a "winding down" before too long.
I think the tracing app being rolled out and being spoken about as being available nationwide "within weeks" hints at where we are heading towards the end of the month.

 

[Bantamzen]

I know a lot of people like to think that it is a binary choice between the economy vs lives, however I do not think it is that straightforward. Ten years after the Great Depression the most destructive conflict in history occured, with the Great Depression being a big contributing factor in that war breaking out, which I think highlights the long term risks of a damaged economy. It is fine to try and to supress the spread of this virus, but I do think what they are doing needs to balanced against the long term impact such measures could have on the economy and people’s mental health.

There's no doubt that the aftermath of WWI and the Great Depression led to countries becoming more nationalistic & aggressive through self-preservation. A prolonged and damaging global recession as a result of a prolonged lockdown would certainty risk greater tensions. Its perhaps not the most pressing concern, how individuals get through is the number one priority, but we do need to keep history in mind.

Rishi Sunak is already saying the furlough scheme is unsustainable, and he wants to begin a "winding down" before too long.
I think the tracing app being rolled out and being spoken about as being available nationwide "within weeks" hints at where we are heading towards the end of the month.

This does not surprise me, the cost would be greater than the entire budget for the NHS if it lasted for more than about 3 quarters.

 

[Huntergreed]

Rishi Sunak is already saying the furlough scheme is unsustainable, and he wants to begin a "winding down" before too long.
I think the tracing app being rolled out and being spoken about as being available nationwide "within weeks" hints at where we are heading towards the end of the month.

It was made quite clear yesterday during the briefing though that the app would absolutely not mean the end of the lockdown and even more so the end of social distancing, it's simply a tool they'll use to reduce the cases down to an even lower level which is their ultimate aim.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It was made quite clear yesterday during the briefing though that the app would absolutely not mean the end of the lockdown and even more so the end of social distancing, it's simply a tool they'll use to reduce the cases down to an even lower level which is their ultimate aim.

They said that so people carry on taking the lockdown seriously for now. It is pretty certain that it will be used as a release tool, and also now where that might be done first (because it's self-contained)!

 

[chris11256]

I do wonder how enthusiasm for lockdown will continue when the government starts to wind down the furlough scheme(such as carrying on for another 3 months but reducing payments by 20% each month) and people start not being paid to sit at home. It's clearly not affordable in the beyond the next month or two.

The next few months are going to be interesting! I wonder how many people are willing to work from home potentially for the next 12 months, I know I'm not. I'll be going back in as soon as lockdown moves to the next stage(I work in IT is can justify physically being on site). On that note, I can see the government keeping all franchises as management contracts for at least the next year. Any move back to traditional franchises & they'll start going bust within months.