Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Bletchleyite]

Neither of those mean that there is a viable vaccine to be discovered, unfortunately. Previous attempts have resulted in either low efficacy, or the vaccinated individual suffering extreme and dangerous immune response such as cytokine storms when subsequently infected by the target virus.

It is indeed possible that one is not viable. However, if one is viable, it will likely be found, rather than e.g. cost being a barrier.

It's also possible that a treatment will be found. If we could viably stop it killing people or causing major organ damage it is then only an irritant like the flu.

 

[trebor79]

Trouble is it's not just "your" risk is it? Other people need protecting from you too if you're carrying the virus. Fair enough for the most vulnerable to be shielded for a year or so until a vaccine, but there are also millions of "vulnerable" people needed for normal daily life to function, i.e. essential workers with diabetes etc (teachers, doctors, nurses etc). Public transport needs to be safe for them too. I think it's inevitable that face masks will be compulsory, along with as near normal timetable as possible with as few short formed services as possible. We need to do whatever it takes to try to ensure trains and buses aren't overcrowded and to make passengers as safe as possible on them.

Those people can utilise their own personal responsibility. Perhaps make other travel arrangements.

 

[baz962]

Absolutely. The RMT banging on about increased services putting their members at risk is a nonsense. The maximum number of passengers I have seen on a train is 4 (yes 4, a carriage each to themselves). Increasing service provision would presumably reduce that even further, and therefore result in *less* risk to staff. I know passenger figures will increase as things open up again, but the point remains that more services = less passenger density = less risk of infection.

I'm still very puzzled as to what meaningful use can be made of public transport in a "socially distanced" world. I have a very nasty feeling that we will see a decimation of rail services, Dr Beeching eat your heart out style.

Depends on the toc and the time of day I guess. I can't remember which day , but the train in front of me was terminated and I picked up around fifty passengers on that platform and then picked up between five and ten on the next few platform's. I reckon on around a hundred approximately two thirds of the journey.

 

[underbank]

It’s surprising there’s still so much unknown over masks. This ought to have been nailed down by now. Alternatively the continued debate over this perhaps points to how many unknowns there still are about C19 and how is spreads, which isn’t wonderful for politicians needing to make decisions.

There's so much unknown (to the public) about the entire Covid situation. By now, after tens of thousands of deaths worldwide, together with presumably ten of thousands recoveries, we should know, with certainty:-

1. Who are the "real" risk groups? and
2. How it's spread.

It's crazy we still don't know if it's spread through droplets (i.e. sneezes, coughs, splutters etc), or spread by direct touch, i.e. hand shakes, holding hands, kissing, hugging, or from surfaces, i.e. people touching hand rails etc. How do we not know?

Likewise, who is most at risk? Is it diabetics (and if so, type 1 or type 2), is it obesity, is it smokers, is it blood cell cancer sufferers?

It seems as if we've just not moved on in 2 months. If we're to come out of this any time soon, we need the experts/scientists to move away from the generalities and provide some concrete data.

 

[underbank]

Those people can utilise their own personal responsibility. Perhaps make other travel arrangements.

We're not talking a handful are we? We're talking millions of people. They're just at similar risk if they take a taxi as they have no certainty that the taxi driver isn't contagious or that the taxi seat, door handles, surfaces etc have been properly cleaned between fares. If millions of people are expected to make their own arrangements, what is the point of public transport at all?

 

[Bantamzen]

Trouble is it's not just "your" risk is it? Other people need protecting from you too if you're carrying the virus. Fair enough for the most vulnerable to be shielded for a year or so until a vaccine, but there are also millions of "vulnerable" people needed for normal daily life to function, i.e. essential workers with diabetes etc (teachers, doctors, nurses etc). Public transport needs to be safe for them too. I think it's inevitable that face masks will be compulsory, along with as near normal timetable as possible with as few short formed services as possible. We need to do whatever it takes to try to ensure trains and buses aren't overcrowded and to make passengers as safe as possible on them.

But carrying the virus does not mean automatic transmission. The virus still needs some propulsion from a carrier, in it's case coughing. So people displaying symptoms should either stay at home if possible, or as was common practice in some countries wear a mask or face covering. For people not displaying symptoms, and therefore unaware that they are carrying, the risks of transmission can be largely negated by making sure they wash their hands, try not to touch their faces as much, and of course use a tissue to cover mouths & noses if they feel they might sneeze or cough, as we should always have been doing.

I think it was Grant Shapps just yesterday who said on masks that they might be needed to persuade people to go out. Not to protect themselves or each other, but to offer reassurance. I think that pretty much said as much as needs to be said.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We're not talking a handful are we? We're talking millions of people. They're just at similar risk if they take a taxi as they have no certainty that the taxi driver isn't contagious or that the taxi seat, door handles, surfaces etc have been properly cleaned between fares. If millions of people are expected to make their own arrangements, what is the point of public transport at all?

Might shared taxis become more of a thing? You are in close contact with say 3 other people plus the driver, but that's much more controlled than a larger vehicle.

 

[underbank]

But carrying the virus does not mean automatic transmission. The virus still needs some propulsion from a carrier, in it's case coughing. So people displaying symptoms should either stay at home if possible, or as was common practice in some countries wear a mask or face covering. For people not displaying symptoms, and therefore unaware that they are carrying, the risks of transmission can be largely negated by making sure they wash their hands, try not to touch their faces as much, and of course use a tissue to cover mouths & noses if they feel they might sneeze or cough, as we should always have been doing.

But how do you "force" people to stay at home if they've got symptons or wash their hands? That was the instruction at the start of Covid before the lockdown, but people ignored the advice. Look at the people who've admitted they had symptoms but still went to Cheltenham races and that Liverpool football match. Same with "test, track and trace" - it all relies on people doing the right thing, and sadly, it's not safe to rely on people, many of whom don't understand, some of whom are arrogant, some of whom simply don't care about others.

 

[trebor79]

Those people can utilise their own personal responsibility. Perhaps make other travel arrangements.

We're not talking a handful are we? We're talking millions of people. They're just at similar risk if they take a taxi as they have no certainty that the taxi driver isn't contagious or that the taxi seat, door handles, surfaces etc have been properly cleaned between fares. If millions of people are expected to make their own arrangements, what is the point of public transport at all?

London style cabs almost always have a perspex screen between driver and passengers. Retrofitting to those that don't, and to minicabs isn't rocket science. The virus isn't going to leap off surfaces and up your nose, so wash or sanitise your hands after getting out.
Yes its possibly millions of people. But millions of people take personal (ir)responsibility and choose to smoke a pack of cigarettes every day. We have to learn to live with it. We can't stay cooped up at home, with children and young people not being educated and millions unemployed. That's no future at all.

 

[Bantamzen]

But how do you "force" people to stay at home if they've got symptons or wash their hands? That was the instruction at the start of Covid before the lockdown, but people ignored the advice. Look at the people who've admitted they had symptoms but still went to Cheltenham races and that Liverpool football match. Same with "test, track and trace" - it all relies on people doing the right thing, and sadly, it's not safe to rely on people, many of whom don't understand, some of whom are arrogant, some of whom simply don't care about others.

In the first instance you ask them, as adults to do this and explain why. You make sure their employers comply with leave and that they have access to the support they might need if they have to stay at home. As this lockdown has shown most people will comply, providing they don't end up in financial trouble. Beyond that social pressure would do most of the rest.

 

[trebor79]

There's so much unknown (to the public) about the entire Covid situation. By now, after tens of thousands of deaths worldwide, together with presumably ten of thousands recoveries, we should know, with certainty:-

1. Who are the "real" risk groups? and
2. How it's spread.

It's crazy we still don't know if it's spread through droplets (i.e. sneezes, coughs, splutters etc), or spread by direct touch, i.e. hand shakes, holding hands, kissing, hugging, or from surfaces, i.e. people touching hand rails etc. How do we not know?

Likewise, who is most at risk? Is it diabetics (and if so, type 1 or type 2), is it obesity, is it smokers, is it blood cell cancer sufferers?

It seems as if we've just not moved on in 2 months. If we're to come out of this any time soon, we need the experts/scientists to move away from the generalities and provide some concrete data.

I think they and we know who the main risk groups are. The elderly and those with particular medical conditions. Plus a very few unlucky younger people.
Reading between the lines, the majority of infection and death is now occurring in care homes and such like, with relatively low transmission in the wider community.

Taiwan and South Korea have demonstrated that less damaging strategies than lockdown are as effective (or even more effective) at containing this disease. We need to copy them.

 

[bramling]

But how do you "force" people to stay at home if they've got symptons or wash their hands? That was the instruction at the start of Covid before the lockdown, but people ignored the advice. Look at the people who've admitted they had symptoms but still went to Cheltenham races and that Liverpool football match. Same with "test, track and trace" - it all relies on people doing the right thing, and sadly, it's not safe to rely on people, many of whom don't understand, some of whom are arrogant, some of whom simply don't care about others.

This is the problem, and add on to that people who may be asymptomatic.

Any exit strategy which places too much reliance on people “doing the right thing” will fail IMO, especially if it relies on that happening for a longer period of time.

 

[bramling]

I think they and we know who the main risk groups are. The elderly and those with particular medical conditions. Plus a very few unlucky younger people.
Reading between the lines, the majority of infection and death is now occurring in care homes and such like, with relatively low transmission in the wider community.

Surely the latter is as a result of the lockdown? Time will tell if community transmission restarts once things start being eased. It doesn’t help that we will apparently be starting from a position where there’s still a relatively significant number of active cases dotted around the community based upon the number of new infections still being diagnosed. If it’s not to flare up again then it would seem social distancing measures are going to have to be taken extremely seriously by all.

 

[Bantamzen]

This is the problem, and add on to that people who may be asymptomatic.

Any exit strategy which places too much reliance on people “doing the right thing” will fail IMO, especially if it relies on that happening for a longer period of time.

Being asymptomatic does not mean you are automatically transmitting. Providing that if people not showing symptoms cover their mouths and noses, and maintain a decent level of hygiene then the risk remains small.

 

[HH]

Thus negating the whole purpose of Citrix in that context!

Your IT department is wrong. I think this is yet another firm where the IT department has become a self-fulfilling thing, and not something that exists purely to support the business.

I was thinking the same thing, but my daily exercise called and said I had to go out.

 

[westv]

I think this is yet another firm where the IT department has become a self-fulfilling thing, and not something that exists purely to support the business.

A bit like HR departments.

 

[HH]

Taiwan and South Korea have demonstrated that less damaging strategies than lockdown are as effective (or even more effective) at containing this disease. We need to copy them.

I said this at the very start, well before lockdown. But now we need to get the numbers infected down so that the strategy can work. Hopefully that will be the case by the time they are ready to start, in two weeks time.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

The biggest challenge could well be convincing a scared public to start using public transport again. There's currently speculation that certain businesses would be exempt from the 2m social distancing rule provided other preventative measures are taken - I would hope that would apply to the railways, otherwise it simply won't be cost effective to run trains.

 

[Huntergreed]

I see Nicola Sturgeon essentially just confirmed during the briefing today that, in Scotland at the very least, there will be no change to the current lockdown for another three weeks, taking us until May 28th before anything can happen.

 

[westv]

I see Nicola Sturgeon essentially just confirmed during the briefing today that, in Scotland at the very least, there will be no change to the current lockdown for another three weeks, taking us until May 28th before anything can happen.

I expect the rest of the UK will follow. Sunday will tell us what will happen after that time.

 

[HH]

I see Nicola Sturgeon essentially just confirmed during the briefing today that, in Scotland at the very least, there will be no change to the current lockdown for another three weeks, taking us until May 28th before anything can happen.

If that is true for the rest of the UK, I feel that it is a mistake. At least some loosening, or even an announcement of it, would be helpful, however minor.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If that is true for the rest of the UK, I feel that it is a mistake. At least some loosening, or even an announcement of it, would be helpful, however minor.

I think I'd go with the idea of extending it, but announcing that after it there will likely be changes subject to the tests still being met. That gives a three week period for businesses to prepare for limited reopening.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I think I'd go with the idea of extending it, but announcing that after it there will likely be changes subject to the tests still being met. That gives a three week period for businesses to prepare for limited reopening.

The theory in certain papers is that Tuesday 26 May is the likeliest date for the lockdown to be lifted, on the grounds that this will prevent people being let out for the coming bank holiday weekends to have massive parties and social gatherings which would risk the virus spreading all over again.

 

[HH]

I think I'd go with the idea of extending it, but announcing that after it there will likely be changes subject to the tests still being met. That gives a three week period for businesses to prepare for limited reopening.

Sure. And in any case, why stick to 3 weeks. It's not a magic number.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The theory in certain papers is that Tuesday 26 May is the likeliest date for the lockdown to be lifted, on the grounds that this will prevent people being let out for the coming bank holiday weekends to have massive parties and social gatherings which would risk the virus spreading all over again.

Or crowding into the Lakes etc.

 

[HH]

Or crowding into the Lakes etc.

In my view it is an unnecessary worry and the lack of clarity is likely to lead to less people following the guidelines.

 

[Esker-pades]

In my view it is an unnecessary worry and the lack of clarity is likely to lead to less people following the guidelines.

It happened though.

 

[HH]

It happened though.

What happened. We are talking about a future date. Did you hop into the Tardis?

 

[Esker-pades]

What happened. We are talking about a future date. Did you hop into the Tardis?

In the first week of the lockdown, Cumbria Police reported a significant number of people coming from well outside the area on trips to the Lakes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the first week of the lockdown, Cumbria Police reported a significant number of people coming from well outside the area on trips to the Lakes.

Yes, they did. And unlocking just before a BH would make it happen again.