Exit strategy predictions

[CaptainHaddock]

Lack of appearance doesn't mean it hasn't been happening of course. There's the high profile developments such as the increased testing capacity and the development of the 'track & trace' app, but I'd be amazed if there hadn't been ongoing discussions that were strictly confidential. There was the story about the railway being asked to step up it's service from the 18th of May and I wouldn't be surprised if other industries had been similarly asked to prepare for resumption or at least step change from that particular day. The reason that we won't be hearing about it is because the last thing the Government wants is for everyone to start pencilling the 18th in as "last day of lockdown" - partially to avoid bad press if it's decided that current measures have to continue past it, but also to prevent people from planning everything around it on the assumption that normality can be resumed from then

That said, Monday 18 May would be the most logical day to at least partially end the lockdown. If it's announced on 7 May that the lockdown is to be lifted, the following Monday would give firms (including TOCs) insufficient time to prepare and ending the lockdown at the end of a week rather than the start of it will result in people going on a weekend-long bender with friends and family that will risk spreading the virus all over again.

 

[westv]

I'm still thinking that there won't be any change to the "work from home if you can" advice until June at the very earliest.

 

[Bantamzen]

That said, Monday 18 May would be the most logical day to at least partially end the lockdown. If it's announced on 7 May that the lockdown is to be lifted, the following Monday would give firms (including TOCs) insufficient time to prepare and ending the lockdown at the end of a week rather than the start of it will result in people going on a weekend-long bender with friends and family that will risk spreading the virus all over again.

There are signs that this date might be a possibility.

I'm still thinking that there won't be any change to the "work from home if you can" advice until June at the very earliest.

I'm fully expecting this to be a longer term measure even beyond June.

 

[Domh245]

I'm just getting frustrated because we are starting to lag behind the rest of Europe in making plans for this, and there seems to be an assumption that you can't be honest with people or they'll immediately head outside and start holding hands with strangers or something.

The advantage of lagging behind the rest of Europe like that (and indeed, some US states) is that we can see what works and what effect various degrees of easing will have. If the data from the US states that have massively eased restrictions shows that it's all good then great - we can jump straight to that. If the data from a country with light easing shows a big jump then the government can use that information as they see fit. And much as I might disagree with the argument that we can't treat people like adults - sadly there's enough people who take advtange/the piss of it that they ruin it for everyone else! I think it's better that they keep us in the dark to some extent and then suddenly lift things rather than drip feed us "maybes" that'll lead to dissapointment or rushes

 

[Enthusiast]

Mind you, living in Scotland seems to be slightly worse in that respect - the Scottish government response is possibly even more contemptuous and doom-laden, but is constantly couched in false claims to be treating us like adults.

But the more important question I would ask if I lived north of the border is "Where is the First Minister getting her hair done?" She's either getting it done by somebody (and I don't think her husband is a hairdresser) or it doesn't grow.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm fully expecting this to be a longer term measure even beyond June.

Though it may well loosen a bit from "if there's any possible chance you can take a laptop home and do about a quarter of your job badly, do" to "if it is effective for you to work at home, do".

There is for instance clearly no scope for my former "go into the office once every week or two to be sociable" type arrangement for some time.

 

[takno]

I'm fully expecting this to be a longer term measure even beyond June.

Probably. I think if you remove the mandate to stay home generally though, then you can get to a more balanced situation. Being able to get out once every week or so do something normal like go to the office and have a couple of socially distant but non-pixellated conversations would improve my ability to work at the moment.

I just get worried when you start thinking that might be an option and then the government turns around and says "we only meant we might open garden centres", or "you'll be allowed to talk to people in person, but you've got to pick no more 5 of them, and if they don't pick you back then you'll just have to stew". A series of cruel and unusual punishments posing as a semblance of normality isn't a policy you can carry on beyond May.

 

[westv]

..a couple of socially distant but non-pixellated conversations would improve my ability to work at the moment.

Do you work for the security services?

 

[Bantamzen]

Probably. I think if you remove the mandate to stay home generally though, then you can get to a more balanced situation. Being able to get out once every week or so do something normal like go to the office and have a couple of socially distant but non-pixellated conversations would improve my ability to work at the moment.

Longer term having wider hours of business instead of the traditional 9-5 would help spread the load on public transport, as well as in work places, giving the additional advantage of more flexible working patterns. Mix it in with working from home days, and people could potentially tailor their working patterns to maximise work-life balance.

​

I just get worried when you start thinking that might be an option and then the government turns around and says "we only meant we might open garden centres", or "you'll be allowed to talk to people in person, but you've got to pick no more 5 of them, and if they don't pick you back then you'll just have to stew". A series of cruel and unusual punishments posing as a semblance of normality isn't a policy you can carry on beyond May.

I can't see it getting that bad. Just reading the BBC live feed it seems a track & trace app could be ready in 2-3 weeks, which does lend more hope towards some real relaxations in the coming weeks. Fingers crossed!

 

[Carlisle]

I think it's better that they keep us in the dark to some extent and then suddenly lift things rather than drip feed us "maybes" that'll lead to dissapointment or rushes

Not necessarily, I’ve got some holidays from work at the beginning of June so it’d be useful to know if we’re going to be allowed further than ones local shops or park by then so I could at least try and defer now if not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The problem for the Government is that people slate them for "U-turns", even though someone who doesn't revisit their plans in the face of changing evidence is a fool.

 

[JonathanH]

Not necessarily, I’ve got some holidays from work at the beginning of June so it’d be useful to know if we’re going to be allowed further than ones local shops or park by then so I could at least try and defer now if not.

Holiday really should be taken if at all possible, regardless of whether there are still restrictions. It will not be in the economic interest of anyone for everybody to defer holiday to the later part of the year. It would appear very unlikely that we will be able to travel to distant parts of the country at any point this year.

The central tourism bodies in tourist areas should be launching appeals, just like everyone else, to get people to send money and not themselves to their regions.

 

[takno]

Longer term having wider hours of business instead of the traditional 9-5 would help spread the load on public transport, as well as in work places, giving the additional advantage of more flexible working patterns. Mix it in with working from home days, and people could potentially tailor their working patterns to maximise work-life balance.

I can't see it getting that bad. Just reading the BBC live feed it seems a track & trace app could be ready in 2-3 weeks, which does lend more hope towards some real relaxations in the coming weeks. Fingers crossed!

Fingers crossed indeed. My usual commute to work is an off-peak walk through a quiet suburb and a park, so it's unlikely to be hit by any social distancing issues anyway - it's one of the bits of the office that I most miss!

 

[greyman42]

Holiday really should be taken if at all possible, regardless of whether there are still restrictions. It will not be in the economic interest of anyone for everybody to defer holiday to the later part of the year. It would appear very unlikely that we will be able to travel to distant parts of the country at any point this year.

The central tourism bodies in tourist areas should be launching appeals, just like everyone else, to get people to send money and not themselves to their regions.

Do you seriously think a significant amount of people are going to do that?

 

[JonathanP]

If the British can be convinced to donate millions to fund the health service that they already paid for in their taxes they can probably be convinced to donate to anything. Just call it "Holidays for Heroes".

 

[Bletchleyite]

Do you seriously think a significant amount of people are going to do that?

Certainly my employer has decided that we will not be allowed to cancel holiday. It's a bit annoying from a selfish perspective, but everyone taking it all in October or whatever would whack their business continuity heavily, so I do completely understand it and am not objecting.

 

[Jozhua]

You know, as much as everyone thinks Sweden's strategy is insanity, it's actually appearing more and more sensible by the day. As one government minister said in an interview, "we are running a marathon, not a sprint". Whilst countries that have gone into Lockdown have done seemingly well in the shorter term, this way of life is not sustainable. The streets are noticeably busier in the last few days, more businesses are re-opening and even the most vehemently pro-lockdown sorts are starting to struggle.

I think the hot weather offered a sort of psychological barrier between 'normality' and 'lockdown', now the rain has come back, I think everyone is subconsciously falling back into their old routines.

Now, I'm not saying we should throw the population to their deaths, but we should be realistic and look at moving to more sustainable strategies. Your lockdown is only as effective as your exit strategy and every day that goes by without the government communicating with the public what will be required of them after the heaviest of restrictions, the worse the second peak will be.

I've been working on editing for a YouTube show and the guests were chatting at the start of the show about their post lockdown plans, I think a lot of people are lulled into this false sense of security that after lockdown, COVID-19 will be gone. Many are planning to catch up on all the missed social interaction ASAP, so the government has to communicate that lockdown hasn't really done much to actually reduce case numbers...

I think the best strategy has to be communicating the reality of the situation and introducing a set of more sustainable measures that can be maintained for up to a year.

I think we have a couple of weeks until lockdown starts to break down, if it hasn't already.

I'll keep updating the Google mobility reports on that thread to see what the trends are in more recent weeks, once that data becomes available.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've been working on editing for a YouTube show and the guests were chatting at the start of the show about their post lockdown plans, I think a lot of people are lulled into this false sense of security that after lockdown, COVID-19 will be gone. Many are planning to catch up on all the missed social interaction ASAP, so the government has to communicate that lockdown hasn't really done much to actually reduce case numbers...

Except for one thing - it has. Another 3 weeks and they will be much lower. Remember they are dropping on the background of more tests being carried out.

 

[Jozhua]

Except for one thing - it has. Another 3 weeks and they will be much lower. Remember they are dropping on the background of more tests being carried out.

I hope it has lowered a decent amount, I just worry that it won't be enough by the time everyone tires of the restrictions.

I think we've gone too hard on the social distancing and people are now tiring of it, hopefully we can gradually increase the amount people see each other to a reasonable (but lower than average) level, without everyone trying to catch up on the last 2 months of not being able to do stuff at once and having a sudden explosion in cases.

 

[yorkie]

You know, as much as everyone thinks Sweden's strategy is insanity, it's actually appearing more and more sensible by the day. As one government minister said in an interview, "we are running a marathon, not a sprint". Whilst countries that have gone into Lockdown have done seemingly well in the shorter term, this way of life is not sustainable. The streets are noticeably busier in the last few days, more businesses are re-opening and even the most vehemently pro-lockdown sorts are starting to struggle.....

It's difficult to say, but I do think in the longer term there is every chance that Sweden will indeed be better off.

....without everyone trying to catch up on the last 2 months of not being able to do stuff at once....

The restrictions are not going to be suddenly eased that much; the aim will be to avoid the R value exceeding 1.

 

[greyman42]

Certainly my employer has decided that we will not be allowed to cancel holiday. It's a bit annoying from a selfish perspective, but everyone taking it all in October or whatever would whack their business continuity heavily, so I do completely understand it and am not objecting.

Just to be clear, I was not referring to when you take your holidays. Apologies if you thought I was, that's none of my business. I was referring to people making donations to tourist regions.

 

[Domh245]

As one government minister said in an interview, "we are running a marathon, not a sprint". Whilst countries that have gone into Lockdown have done seemingly well in the shorter term, this way of life is not sustainable.

That is one of my big worries for countries like New Zealand - shutting the country down early meant they've not had any big spike now, but it means they're completely dependant on the vaccine working (or some sort of cure) as the alternative is to effectively become permanently isolated by imposing 14 day quarantines on arrivals.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Just to be clear, I was not referring to when you take your holidays. Apologies if you thought I was, that's none of my business. I was referring to people making donations to tourist regions.

Ah, sorry, I thought you were referring to whether your employer let you move your booked annual leave or not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That is one of my big worries for countries like New Zealand - shutting the country down early meant they've not had any big spike now, but it means they're completely dependant on the vaccine working (or some sort of cure) as the alternative is to effectively become permanently isolated by imposing 14 day quarantines on arrivals.

That seems rather pain-free compared with the other options, though?

 

[edwin_m]

Absolutely. It's incumbent on Chris Whitty as CMO to advise on the basic medical aspects of this, just as it's incumbent on the government to take expert advice on the psychological, economic and ethical aspects of it from other people.

I would have thought psychology would be part of the medical brief so Whitty should take that into account, and probably is.

There are already people unable to get treatment for non-Covid illnesses because of the change of emphasis. There are various reports and figures bandied about and you can pick any one you want. But there is no doubt that treatment for some serious illnesses is being curtailed. Each year more than 160k people die from cancer and around 180k from heart and respiratory disease - getting on for half of all deaths. Most of these are among the elderly (just as most of the Covid deaths are). There will come a point when the NHS or the government will have to decide when this emphasis will cease and that Covid will become one of the multitude of other conditions that need to be treated. They can't save everybody from a painful or uncomfortable death from cancer and they will not be able to save everybody from a painful or uncomfortable death from Covid. Once that is accepted it will have to move on to the situation pre-Covid where, although people were dying from cancer, non-essential but extremely desirable treatments such as knee and hip replacements will have to resume. I haven't even touched on the long term psychological problems which people - young and old - will endure.

I agree essential treatment and screening need to continue, or resume where they have stopped. But if Covid overwhelms the NHS then there will be a lot more people who can't get treatment for other conditions too.

Except for one thing - it has. Another 3 weeks and they will be much lower. Remember they are dropping on the background of more tests being carried out.

They seem to be falling at about 30% per week under current lockdown conditions, so in three weeks I would expect the figures to have gone down about two thirds from today (figures compounded rather than simply added). But if R0 went back to the sort of values it was before lockdown, infections would be at least back up to the current level before that fed through to the number of people presenting with symptoms (and testing wouldn't be much better given the time lag involved in getting and analyzing the results). Because of all the consequences of overwhelming the NHS I'd say the absolute priority is to steer a course that doesn't present a risk of that happening. Those sorts of figures suggest there is some scope for relaxation on May 7th but at the cost of being extremely vigilant and prepared to re-impose restrictions if there is any sign hospitalisations are heading for critical levels.

 

[Domh245]

That seems rather pain-free compared with the other options, though?

Depends on if there is anything that cures or prevents the virus, otherwise all they've done is delay the inevitable.

 

[scotrail158713]

If the British can be convinced to donate millions to fund the health service that they already paid for in their taxes they can probably be convinced to donate to anything. Just call it "Holidays for Heroes".

The donations aren’t going to where taxes go though

Captain Tom Moore: How will coronavirus fundraising be spent?

Captain Tom Moore has raised millions for NHS charities - what will happen to the money?

www.bbc.co.uk

What began as a 99-year-old Army veteran walking laps of his garden for charity has evolved into a story that has captured the hearts of a nation desperate for positive news during the coronavirus pandemic.

Capt Tom Moore's initial hopes of raising £1,000 by lapping his Bedfordshire garden 100 times before his 100th birthday seem like a distant memory, with the total now surpassing a staggering £23m.

The fund continues to rise and has been earmarked for the NHS. What will happen to the money?

What is NHS Charities Together?
Having recently been treated for a broken hip and skin cancer, Capt Tom was inspired to walk the 2.5km (1.6 miles) around his home garden with the aid of a frame to raise money for NHS Charities Together.

Capt Tom himself said he set about raising the money "for the sake of the nurses and the NHS we have, because they are doing such a magnificent job".

The umbrella organisation supports more than 140 member health service charities, which are typically linked to specific hospitals or NHS trusts.

Image captionNurses from Ward 4 at Royal Liverpool University Hospital sent a message of thanks to Capt Tom
Many of the funds donated to NHS Charities Together are then disseminated to charities to use at a local level - and that's where the kind of money raised by Capt Tom will be spent.

Donations since the pandemic started have been used to help set up wellbeing spaces in hospitals. These include sleep pods, reclining chairs and so-called "wobble rooms" - areas where staff have a safe space to release emotions after a traumatic experience, such as losing a patient.

Wellbeing packs including everyday items such as porridge, tea or hand cream have also been given to staff, which one charity member said was "like a hug in a box".

The money has also helped pay for electronic tablets that allow patients who are in isolation in hospital to have contact with their friends and family.

In the long term, the funds will be used in planning to allow people to leave hospital quicker and safely, and also provide mental health support for staff and volunteers involved in dealing with the pandemic.

Chairman Ian Lush said: "It's extraordinary to see the amount of money and the outpouring of goodwill towards the NHS and towards all the NHS charities, who will take good care with the money that he's raising."

Will JustGiving earn from this?
Image captionSoldiers from 1st Battalion The Yorkshire Regiment formed a Guard of Honour for the final laps
When Capt Tom finished his 100th lap live on BBC Breakfast, his JustGiving fundraising page temporarily crashed.

His current total is the largest raised in a single campaign on the site, and the company itself has become one of more than 900,000 donors, giving £100,000.

In March 2019 the website abolished its 5% mandatory platform fee from donations, replacing it instead with a voluntary contribution model.

When donating, people are asked if they would like to make a contribution, starting at 10%, and they must opt out of this amount if they do not wish to pay it.

In a statement a spokeswoman said: "This model provides donors with choice and transparency, as well as allowing JustGiving to maintain the technology that keeps our site running 24/7, provide top-notch customer service and give everyone the best experience on JustGiving."

She added that 97% of all monies raised would go to NHS Charities Together, as with any other fundraiser on the donation site.

For an online card transaction paid in pounds on JustGiving, 1.9% on each donation plus 20p is deducted. Other currencies are subject to a 2.9% plus 20p deduction.

A significant proportion of this is understood to go to card companies but JustGiving also receives a proportion, which is used towards operating costs.

JustGiving was unable to provide a figure for how much money had been generated by transaction fees and contributions.

Who is Capt Tom?
Image captionCapt Tom served in India and Myanmar during World War Two
Tom Moore was born in Keighley, West Yorkshire, on 30 April 1920. He attended Keighley Grammar School before training as a civil engineer and enlisting in the Army during World War Two.

He rose to captain and served in India and Myanmar, then known as Burma.

He will celebrate his 100th birthday on 30 April and while his initial plans were scuppered by coronavirus, he said the national outpouring of love and support for him was "a party enough for me".

Where does Capt Tom live?
Image captionCapt Tom with grandson Benji, daughter Hannah Ingram-Moore and granddaughter Georgia
For the past 12 years Capt Tom has lived with his family - daughter Hannah Ingram-Moore and grandchildren Benji and Georgia - at a house in Marston Moretaine, a small Bedfordshire village.

His name has been added to a list of the village's most notable people on Wikipedia, where he stands alongside a former speaker of the House of Commons, two cricketers and a man who lost an arm at the Battle of Waterloo.

And his fame is spreading, with people from all over the country seeking to wish him well ahead of his birthday at the end April.

Village postmaster Bill Chandi said hundreds of birthday cards had been arriving.

What has been the reaction?
Capt Tom's daughter Hannah called her father a "beacon of hope in dark times".

"I think we all need something like this to believe in and it's for such an amazing cause," she said.

Former F1 champion Damon Hill congratulated him on the "brilliant idea and for pulling it off", while current champion Lewis Hamilton called him a "total inspiration".

Capt Tom's story brings some solace during a global pandemic. The director-general of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called the feat an "extraordinary act of solidarity".

Capt Tom's efforts have even raised the attention of royalty, with the Duke of Cambridge calling him a "one-man fundraising machine".

Actor Tom Hardy, who played a Spitfire pilot in the World War Two film Dunkirk, is one of the high profile names calling for Capt Tom to be knighted among a series of supportive Instagram posts.


And with more than half a million people backing a petition to the Honours Committee calling for a knighthood, could his heroic achievement be given a royal seal?

 

[chris11256]

If I've understood today's briefing correctly, Dominic Raab has said it's up to Sage to determine whether the 5 test have been met or not. The Sage meeting for lockdown review is early may, so either Friday or Monday/Tuesday next week.

Remains to be seen whether the Government will announce the plan(not dates) before the lockdown review.

 

[Harvey B]

If I've understood today's briefing correctly, Dominic Raab has said it's up to Sage to determine whether the 5 test have been met or not. The Sage meeting for lockdown review is early may, so either Friday or Monday/Tuesday next week.

Remains to be seen whether the Government will announce the plan(not dates) before the lockdown review.

the review will probably be on Thursday next week but even if it is extended I'd still like to hear about an exit plan

 

[Bletchleyite]

the review will probably be on Thursday next week but even if it is extended I'd still like to hear about an exit plan

Some of it will be informed by what works in e.g. Germany, but yes, I think it will be soon time to outline what it is, even if it isn't yet possible to say when.