Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Huntergreed]

Indications today from the Scottish Parliament that the capacity of public transport under social distancing might be set to 10 to 25 percent of full capacity:

Official Report - Parliamentary Business : Scottish Parliament

The Official Report is the substantially verbatim transcript of the meetings of the Scottish Parliament and its committees

www.parliament.scot

I think this makes it pretty clear that the bus and rail network will need to be reserved for essential travel for some time.

I would imagine if this is the case, then when we are “let out”, they’ll implement an advance reservation only system, as otherwise this would be pretty unworkable.

 

[yorkie]

I think this makes it pretty clear that the bus and rail network will need to be reserved for essential travel for some time.

But for how long?

Current usage is not even 1% so do you propose leaving the remaining 24% empty?

I would imagine if this is the case, then when we are “let out”, they’ll implement an advance reservation only system, as otherwise this would be pretty unworkable.

How would that work on (say) London Overground?

 

[Huntergreed]

But for how long?

Current usage is not even 1% so do you propose leaving the remaining 24% empty?

How would that work on (say) London Overground?

When more are allowed to go back to work I can imagine this quickly filling back up. I would guess that, perhaps, it’ll be less about the essentiality of the journey, and more just simply if you want to travel, you must book in advance.

 

[Bletchleyite]

When more are allowed to go back to work I can imagine this quickly filling back up. I would guess that, perhaps, it’ll be less about the essentiality of the journey, and more just simply if you want to travel, you must book in advance.

I can see Avanti and LNER implementing that policy - compulsory reservations with only one seat out of every pair of rows/table bay occupied. But how is it going to work for local buses or LU, as @yorkie asked?

 

[bramling]

I can see Avanti and LNER implementing that policy - compulsory reservations with only one seat out of every pair of rows/table bay occupied. But how is it going to work for local buses or LU, as @yorkie asked?

There’s no way it can work for commuter trains.

I suspect they will just keep encouraging home-working, run as much as they can and monitor how things pan out with tweaks here and there to deal with any problem services by making adjustments where possible.

I couldn’t work on the basis of being tied down to a particular service.

 

[JonathanH]

But for how long?

Current usage is not even 1% so do you propose leaving the remaining 24% empty?

That depends on your definition of essential travel - journeys to see family might be seen by some as essential and yes, obviously filling to 25% is clearly reasonable if this is implemented.

Presumably this continues for “really quite a long period of time” as Chris Whitty coined it last week. It could be years.

How would that work on (say) London Overground?

I expect that use of some trains at present must be greater than 25% even if it is 1% overall. Some form of pre-booking for access to the station seems a possible solution.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There’s no way it can work for commuter trains.

I suspect they will just keep encouraging home-working, run as much as they can and monitor how things pan out with tweaks here and there to deal with any problem services my making adjustments where possible.

I couldn’t work on the basis of being tied down to a particular service.

I think it could work for commuter trains as in Northern and the likes. People will have to plan or go by car/taxi. If you're not sure if you'll finish at 1730 or 1830 assume 1830, say.

 

[JonathanH]

I think it could work for commuter trains as in Northern and the likes. People will have to plan or go by car/taxi. If you're not sure if you'll finish at 1730 or 1830 assume 1830, say.

Moving people off trains and into taxis isn't a good solution to social distancing though is it. Fine if you have London-style taxis, but saloon car type vehicles have less distancing than a train at a low fill level.

 

[Huntergreed]

An issue I could potentially see with this system is say you were unsure of a finish time, which often people are, that would immediately almost rule out use of the rail network, as they would only be able to book onto a specified service (assuming the system works like an advance ticket) and if they were at all at risk of not making the service and losing their money, they simply wouldn't use it.

 

[bramling]

I think it could work for commuter trains as in Northern and the likes. People will have to plan or go by car/taxi. If you're not sure if you'll finish at 1730 or 1830 assume 1830, say.

What happens if you’re a shift-worker and your relief is delayed on his way in to work? Or a train driver who is late finishing due to a delay?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Moving people off trains and into taxis isn't a good solution to social distancing though is it. Fine if you have London-style taxis, but saloon car type vehicles have less distancing than a train at a low fill level.

It wouldn't be many. The vast, vast majority of commuters use the same pair of trains every single day, even more so in Northernland where frequencies are low.

What happens if you’re a shift-worker and your relief is delayed on his way in to work? Or a train driver who is late finishing due to a delay?

You rebook onto the next available train. Yes, there'll be inconvenience, but this whole thing is going to be full of inconvenience so best get used to it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

An issue I could potentially see with this system is say you were unsure of a finish time, which often people are, that would immediately almost rule out use of the rail network, as they would only be able to book onto a specified service (assuming the system works like an advance ticket) and if they were at all at risk of not making the service and losing their money, they simply wouldn't use it.

We aren't wanting to promote railway use here, we are wanting to put people off it. So if those people have a car they should be using it whether the railway is awkward or not.

If they don't, they'll just have to book a train with suitable slack and if they miss it, rebook.

 

[bramling]

You rebook onto the next available train. Yes, there'll be inconvenience, but this whole thing is going to be full of inconvenience so best get used to it.

That just won't work, people simply won't wear it, especially if there's leisure use taking place. What happens if a train is cancelled or taken out of service for whatever reason?

I can really see trains being a problem. This week I've been working at a slightly different time to normal, which combined with some early-morning engineering work on my route means I've been going in on a train which I wouldn't normally use (which in fact wouldn't exist in the normal timetable, although a similar service would). The normal timetable service I speak of would I believe be a 12-car class 700, GTR in their infinite wisdom are currently running an 8-car 2x387. To be fair this is adequate, but there isn't much scope for it to be much busier than it is now (I'd say about 10 people per carriage by the last stop before London) before distancing will break down.

Furthermore, there's people doing unhelpful things like sticking themselves in an aisle seat right in the middle thus taking up more "distancing space" than they need to, or sitting opposite someone else so they can use a plug socket, plus the usual few who just have to walk to the front before arrival at the terminus and then crowd around the front doorways. It would only take one infected person to cough a few times and it's easy to see how a whole batch of people are liable to become infected. On that score I suspect use of masks may have to be made compulsory just to give some extra protection, as I don't think distancing alone is going to prove workable.

As regards booking, how are you going to physically prevent people boarding a service they're not booked on?

 

[Bletchleyite]

That just won't work, people simply won't wear it, especially if there's leisure use taking place. What happens if a train is cancelled or taken out of service for whatever reason?

Then you rebook onto the next available train.

Go have a look at TGV, AVE etc if you want to see the full detail of how the concept works. It's inconvenient but I can't really see a sensible alternative other than continuing restrictions to keep numbers down which would be very unfair on people who can't drive. First come first served with some sort of priority to season ticket holders (and a request to drive if you have a car) would seem the fairest way to me.

Furthermore, there's people doing unhelpful things like sticking themselves in an aisle seat right in the middle thus taking up more "distancing space" than they need to, or sitting opposite someone else so they can use a plug socket, plus the usual few who just have to walk to the front before arrival at the terminus and then crowd around the front doorways. It would only take one infected person to cough a few times and it's easy to see how a whole batch of people are liable to become infected. On that score I suspect use of masks may have to be made compulsory just to give some extra protection, as I don't think distancing alone is going to prove workable.

Quite possibly so.

As regards booking, how are you going to physically prevent people boarding a service they're not booked on?

You could do some boarding checks (by staff in PPE) but overall you don't need to. Most people will just play along with it as they have the other measures, and if the odd one doesn't (such as those ignoring the pick up/set down only restrictions on the south WCML) it doesn't really matter because it's not enough people to cause a problem. While there are cases of high profile enforcement the lockdown isn't being enforced strictly as we just don't have enough Police in the UK for that.

 

[bramling]

Then you rebook onto the next available train.
Go have a look at TGV, AVE etc if you want to see the full detail of how the concept works. It's inconvenient but I can't really see a sensible alternative other than continuing restrictions to keep numbers down which would be very unfair on people who can't drive.

I don't see why people who don't drive is such an issue. If they're essential journeys then fine, but there's no way that non-essential journeys should potentially be able to book on trains to the detriment of those needing to use the service for work journeys.

I'd say continuing the current restricting is the lesser of two evils, and is I suspect what will happen, perhaps with some element of watering down.

You don't need to. Most people will just play along with it as they have the other measures, and if the odd one doesn't (such as those ignoring the pick up/set down only restrictions on the south WCML) it doesn't really matter because it's not enough people to cause a problem.

I don't think most people will just play along. If we end up with people late for work then issues will kick off there, especially if key workers are involved, whilst people aren't just going to tolerate being late home. I think it will have to be masks, although wait for that to start causing issues when someone turns up without one - there would have to be some facility to be able to acquire them at the station I think (now how would that work at unmanned stations?!).

 

[AM9]

That just won't work, people simply won't wear it, especially if there's leisure use taking place. What happens if a train is cancelled or taken out of service for whatever reason?

I can really see trains being a problem. This week I've been working at a slightly different time to normal, which combined with some early-morning engineering work on my route means I've been going in on a train which I wouldn't normally use (which in fact wouldn't exist in the normal timetable, although a similar service would). The normal timetable service I speak of would I believe be a 12-car class 700, GTR in their infinite wisdom are currently running an 8-car 2x387. To be fair this is adequate, but there isn't much scope for it to be much busier than it is now (I'd say about 10 people per carriage by the last stop before London) before distancing will break down.

Furthermore, there's people doing unhelpful things like sticking themselves in an aisle seat right in the middle thus taking up more "distancing space" than they need to, or sitting opposite someone else so they can use a plug socket, plus the usual few who just have to walk to the front before arrival at the terminus and then crowd around the front doorways. It would only take one infected person to cough a few times and it's easy to see how a whole batch of people are liable to become infected. On that score I suspect use of masks may have to be made compulsory just to give some extra protection, as I don't think distancing alone is going to prove workable.

As regards booking, how are you going to physically prevent people boarding a service they're not booked on?

So what would you propose as a solution?

 

[Bantamzen]

That just won't work, people simply won't wear it, especially if there's leisure use taking place. What happens if a train is cancelled or taken out of service for whatever reason?

I can really see trains being a problem. This week I've been working at a slightly different time to normal, which combined with some early-morning engineering work on my route means I've been going in on a train which I wouldn't normally use (which in fact wouldn't exist in the normal timetable, although a similar service would). The normal timetable service I speak of would I believe be a 12-car class 700, GTR in their infinite wisdom are currently running an 8-car 2x387. To be fair this is adequate, but there isn't much scope for it to be much busier than it is now (I'd say about 10 people per carriage by the last stop before London) before distancing will break down.

Furthermore, there's people doing unhelpful things like sticking themselves in an aisle seat right in the middle thus taking up more "distancing space" than they need to, or sitting opposite someone else so they can use a plug socket, plus the usual few who just have to walk to the front before arrival at the terminus and then crowd around the front doorways. It would only take one infected person to cough a few times and it's easy to see how a whole batch of people are liable to become infected. On that score I suspect use of masks may have to be made compulsory just to give some extra protection, as I don't think distancing alone is going to prove workable.

As regards booking, how are you going to physically prevent people boarding a service they're not booked on?

I think the most sensible approach is not to have unworkable systems as suggested by others, but to ask businesses that can continue to encourage home working for a number of months, and where they can't spread out business hours as much as possible to reduce the number of staff travelling at any given time. Spreading out the peak traffic as well as keeping commuting to a minimum is going to be much easier to implement than trying to force reservation systems on services where it simply isn't feasible.

 

[bramling]

So what would you propose as a solution?

I suspect they will have to just implement every possible measure to try and keep demand suppressed - like encouraging people to go by car where possible (perhaps with measures like reducing parking restrictions), continuing the drive to get people to work from home where practicable, keeping the least important businesses closed, spreading demand, et cetera. Then on the supply side monitoring loadings and adjusting timetables and diagrams to provide extra capacity at the times when it's needed. Perhaps marking certain seats out of use in order to get people to spread out in the most efficient manner possible would also help a bit.

How one makes this work on some of the inner suburban routes like London Overground, or the Underground, goodness knows to be honest. Even now there's parts of the Underground that are packed at certain specific times of day.

On top of this as I said elsewhere I think masks would have to be compulsory as an added measure.

The TOCs will also need to max out on train lengths where possible, especially at times where they might not normally need to like early morning, peak shoulders and afternoons. The fixed-formation nature of the 700s may prove an issue due to the inherent inflexibility of the 8-car units. Unfortunately extra services will almost certainly be out of the question due to lack of drivers, so it's going to be a case of shuffling things to make the best use of what's available - although just taking GN as an example I struggle to see what shuffling will actually be feasible by the time things like platform lengths are taken into account.

Taking myself as an example, I could go by car if I need to, although generally I *prefer* not to. I'm fortunate in having a choice of free car parks I can use, and I can do the journey in essentially the same time except at the busiest times. Generally I don't travel at busy times so most of this probably won't be an issue for me, fortunately.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Keeping the Congestion Charge suspended in London, keeping the fuel price down (by dropping tax if the oil price increases) and keeping parking cheap/free will encourage those who can drive to do so even if it might be less pleasant than rail (e.g. driving into a big city).

 

[AM9]

I suspect they will have to just implement every possible measure to try and keep demand suppressed - like encouraging people to go by car where possible (perhaps with measures like reducing parking restrictions), continuing the drive to get people to work from home where practicable, keeping the least important businesses closed, spreading demand, et cetera. ...

That would be practical outside the south-east, but quite difficult in areas where mass commuting is done by train and the accessiblity to cars is a smaller proportion of total passenger numbers.

The TOCs will also need to max out on train lengths where possible, especially at times where they might not normally need to like early morning, peak shoulders and afternoons. The fixed-formation nature of the 700s may prove an issue due to the inherent inflexibility of the 8-car units. Unfortunately extra services will almost certainly be out of the question due to lack of drivers, so it's going to be a case of shuffling things to make the best use of what's available - although just taking GN as an example I struggle to see what shuffling will actually be feasible by the time things like platform lengths are taken into account. ...

Therein lies the problem, (not only on the GN lines), SDO is unusable if safe distancing is needed as 3 or 4 car's worth of passengers would need to walk along the train to alight. To avoid that would depress the effective capacity even further.

 

[JonathanH]

Keeping the Congestion Charge suspended in London, keeping the fuel price down (by dropping tax if the oil price increases) and keeping parking cheap/free will encourage those who can drive to do so even if it might be less pleasant than rail (e.g. driving into a big city).

That just changes the issue to being one of air pollution which also kills. There is no right way to turn here. Perhaps they should report deaths from all causes at the daily government briefing and try to minimise all of them.

 

[yorksrob]

I think that this thread is in many ways an irrelevance.

Those societies in East Asia that have shown us the way in terms of the efficacy of "track and trace", as well as closing off travel from virus originating countries at the earliest opportunity, are all using public transport. They wear masks and public transport doesn't seem to be a particularly notable source of community transmission.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Therein lies the problem, (not only on the GN lines), SDO is unusable if safe distancing is needed as 3 or 4 car's worth of passengers would need to walk along the train to alight. To avoid that would depress the effective capacity even further.

Can NRS allocate specific seats based on destination? If so, that makes compulsory reservations an even more attractive idea.

 

[Meerkat]

The only solution is to suppress demand by restricting who can travel.
i reckon they are just going to rely on the contact tracing app clearing up the mess it causes.
But....there is still no evidence that asymptomatic people breathing is at all a significant transmission vector. Public transport may actually have become safe enough once symptomatic people were told to stay home and everyone stopped touching their faces and started washing their hands.

 

[underbank]

Public transport may actually have become safe enough once symptomatic people were told to stay home and everyone stopped touching their faces and started washing their hands.

Which relies on people doing what they're told and those with symptoms actually self isolating. Maybe after this lockdown, people will be more compliant. But in the weeks before the lock down, people were clearly told to self isolate if they had symptoms but lots of them ignored that advice - some even admitted they went to the Liverpool football match and Cheltenham races despite having symptoms. The real issue is whether people can be trusted to comply!

 

[Meerkat]

Which relies on people doing what they're told and those with symptoms actually self isolating. Maybe after this lockdown, people will be more compliant. But in the weeks before the lock down, people were clearly told to self isolate if they had symptoms but lots of them ignored that advice - some even admitted they went to the Liverpool football match and Cheltenham races despite having symptoms. The real issue is whether people can be trusted to comply!

The peak being on 8th April suggests that it was pre lockdown measures that made the difference.
in our current changed world people out and about with symptoms are going to get seriously unpopular, and possibly arrested

 

[Bletchleyite]

The peak being on 8th April suggests that it was pre lockdown measures that made the difference.
in our current changed world people out and about with symptoms are going to get seriously unpopular, and possibly arrested

People keep saying the peak was 8th April but the graphs don't seem to bear that out, they seem to bear it out as being Easter weekend. Have you come across any actual evidence of it being 8th April?

 

[AM9]

The peak being on 8th April suggests that it was pre lockdown measures that made the difference.
in our current changed world people out and about with symptoms are going to get seriously unpopular, and possibly arrested

I agree, and with the threat of a return to more restrictions, peer pressure might just keep the selfish ones in check. Maybe ex-SPG officers * dressed up to look like storm troopers in PPI might persuade those who don't think it applies to them to to the line.

* if there are any still young enough to be at work.

 

[Meerkat]

People keep saying the peak was 8th April but the graphs don't seem to bear that out, they seem to bear it out as being Easter weekend. Have you come across any actual evidence of it being 8th April?

I was just going by all the reports and the skyscraper diagram.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

I was just going by all the reports and the skyscraper diagram.....

Ah, looking at this:

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

it actually appears to be 7th by specimen date. Most graphs in use are by test date which is a few days later.

When did lockdown start? The cases are lagged by about a week or two.