Reliance on this Covid-19 vaccine

[scotrail158713]

Well true, but there is potential correlation between reduced A&E admissions and increased deaths not directly attributed to covid. Getting that data sorted will take time, but it is not an unreasonable assumption to say that there is likely to be correlation between being told to stay at home and these extra deaths.

Definitely not an unreasonable assumption to make. I’d agree that there are people staying at home, when they really should go to A&E.

 

[Meerkat]

Well true, but there is potential correlation between reduced A&E admissions and increased deaths not directly attributed to covid. Getting that data sorted will take time, but it is not an unreasonable assumption to say that there is likely to be correlation between being told to stay at home and these extra deaths.

Fair point, but I guess the answer the government wouldn’t publically admit is “as long as they didn’t use hospital resource that is effectively part of the plan”.

 

[Domh245]

Up to a point, but when hospitals are reporting excess capacity (although staffing & PPE is another matter) and people are dying when they could have been saved in hospital..

 

[MattA7]

There is now theories being reported on many news articles that the virus has mutated in various different strains. Which if true casts more doubts on the effectiveness of a vaccine

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is now theory’s being reported on many news articles that the virus has mutated in various different strains. Which if true casts more doubts on the effectiveness of a vaccine

I think an annual multi-strain vaccination like flu is more likely than a one-off.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I hate to say this but there will be ten times more deaths from the causes listed below than those from covid-19 in the long run, all of which will be directly or indirectly related to the virus:

• Obesity
• Domestic violence
• Suicide
• Civil unrest
• Alcohol/drug abuse
• Cancer (as a result of missed treatments)
• Malnutrition
• Other health conditions that require hospital treatment

Corrected for you (and in no particular order)

Obesity
Diabetes (Type 2) and its complications
Congestive heart disease (e.g. coronary)
Lung disease (from smoking)
Kidney disease
Stroke
Cancer
Auto-immune disorders

 

[Bletchleyite]

Corrected for you (and in no particular order)

Obesity
Diabetes (Type 2) and its complications
Congestive heart disease (e.g. coronary)
Lung disease (from smoking)
Kidney disease
Stroke
Cancer
Auto-immune disorders

I think you were quite wrong and unfairly dismissive to remove "domestic violence" and "suicide" from that list. What is your reason for doing this?

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I think you were quite wrong and unfairly dismissive to remove "domestic violence" and "suicide" from that list. What is your reason for doing this?

Fair enough but I had my medical "hat" on and was considering diseases

I remain to be convinced that deaths from domestic violence will go up as a direct result of the coronavirus. And for me, the jury is still out on suicides. Mental health disorders were already at a high pre-coronavirus

 

[yorkie]

...I remain to be convinced that deaths from domestic violence will go up as a direct result of the coronavirus. And for me, the jury is still out on suicides. ...

I can't possibly agree with this; I would state absolutely the opposite.

Domestic abuse is up massively.

And I know loads of people who have struggled with mental health since the lockdown, many of whom were in a good frame of mind before it. I know of young people who are at risk at the best of times but are even more depressed now.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Fair enough but I had my medical "hat" on and was considering diseases

I remain to be convinced that deaths from domestic violence will go up as a direct result of the coronavirus. And for me, the jury is still out on suicides. Mental health disorders were already at a high pre-coronavirus

I suspect suicides will be few but possibly slightly elevated at the moment. But the worse the lockdown, the more likely there will be increases over a protracted period of time due to e.g. business failures and people unable to make ends meet over the next few years.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

That's what I mean about the "jury being out". It will depend on many factors depending on how long this lockdown will continue and whether or not business people (including the self-employed) can survive

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I can't possibly agree with this; I would state absolutely the opposite.

Domestic abuse is up massively.

And I know loads of people who have struggled with mental health since the lockdown, many of whom were in a good frame of mind before it. I know of young people who are at risk at the best of times but are even more depressed now.

How do you know "domestic abuse is up massively?" There is a lot of fear-mongering and mis-information spouted from the media.

 

[yorkie]

It's not fear mongering.

Redirect Notice

Calls to a national domestic abuse helpline rose by 49% and killings doubled weeks after lockdown, a report by MPs has revealed.

Following the "surge" in violence, the report called for a government strategy on domestic abuse during the pandemic.

 

[HH]

Its not speculation that visits to A&E have reduced, and its not speculation that non-covid deaths are up. All that is under investigation is to why this is.

It is speculation about why visits to A&E have reduced and it is also speculation that non-covid deaths are up, as we do not know how many deaths are down to covid-19, given that outside hospitals people are not generally being tested.

 

[HH]

It's not fear mongering.

I even think Priti mentioned this on one of her appearances. It's clear that there has been a rise in domestic violence and it's also unsurprising, given the lockdown.

I've not seen any data showing an increase in suicides though. It's not such a simple cause and effect as domestic violence.

 

[LittleAH]

There is now theories being reported on many news articles that the virus has mutated in various different strains. Which if true casts more doubts on the effectiveness of a vaccine

Must say over the weekend I was bored and started reading into this. 30+ different strains already detected and it seems that Northern Europe has been had the most aggressive strains. This also makes sense given that loss of taste seemed to be relatively new compared to China.

The over reliance on a vaccine is worrying, given any vaccine is unlikely to be ready to implement for a year. In reality, this is here to stay for the near future and it's how the response is managed is how we come out of it. Test and trace seems to be the only way to control the virus and the UK simply is not anywhere near ready to implement that.

 

[Domh245]

as we do not know how many deaths are down to covid-19, given that outside hospitals people are not generally being tested.

Apart from the whole "if you reasonably suspect COVID, then put it on the death certificate" - meaning that even if not 100% accurate, it's a pretty good estimation (if not an overestimate) - quoting from the official guidance for death certificates during this pandemic

For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death, tick Box B and then share the test result when it becomes available. In the circumstances of there being no swab, it is satisfactory to apply clinical judgement.

Taking the ONS registered deaths and removing the COVID19 flagged cases (which will include presumed cases) there's a noticeable spike in deaths above the 5 year average since week ended 3rd April, and that's just the immediate effect.

I've not seen any data showing an increase in suicides though

We won't see any official information on this until 2021 assuming the ONS keep to their current reporting (the 2019 data won't come out until this September) - they have to be certified through a coroner which naturally means a long delay between any suicide occurring and it being registered as so.

 

[HH]

Must say over the weekend I was bored and started reading into this. 30+ different strains already detected and it seems that Northern Europe has been had the most aggressive strains. This also makes sense given that loss of taste seemed to be relatively new compared to China.

The over reliance on a vaccine is worrying, given any vaccine is unlikely to be ready to implement for a year. In reality, this is here to stay for the near future and it's how the response is managed is how we come out of it. Test and trace seems to be the only way to control the virus and the UK simply is not anywhere near ready to implement that.

I would note that the vaccine scientists have said several times that in the mutations they have seen would be covered by the same vaccine. Also, you do know that the general way for viruses to mutate is to become less deadly - killing the host is an inefficient way to spread.

 

[HH]

Apart from the whole "if you reasonably suspect COVID, then put it on the death certificate" - meaning that even if not 100% accurate, it's a pretty good estimation (if not an overestimate) - quoting from the official guidance for death certificates during this pandemic

That assumes that every covid-19 related death could be reasonably suspected. Given that the majority of deaths have multiple existing conditions, there seems plenty of room for covid related deaths to be missed.

 

[edwin_m]

The over reliance on a vaccine is worrying, given any vaccine is unlikely to be ready to implement for a year. In reality, this is here to stay for the near future and it's how the response is managed is how we come out of it. Test and trace seems to be the only way to control the virus and the UK simply is not anywhere near ready to implement that.

To be manageable, test and trace needs the numbers to come down significantly from where they now are, as well as having the people in place to do it. I'd say both of those are months away even under the current degree of lockdown. The alternative is to relax the lockdown somewhat, but hopefully not enough that the infections start increasing again. That's difficult to judge considering how little we know about the number and degree of infectiousness of those that aren't showing symptoms, and the time lag between being infected and showing symptoms. If we went back to the degree of transmission before the lockdown then infections could multiply several times before they started showing up in the hospital admissions, which at current numbers would overwhelm the NHS and reduce chances of survival.

I don't think the prospect of a vaccine affects that decision very much. If we get one that works and is widely administered then other measures can be lifted whatever strategy is followed in the meantime. Those hard decisions remain unless and until we do, or at least until we prove a vaccine is effective and know roughly how long it will take to get it out to most of the population.

 

[LittleAH]

I would note that the vaccine scientists have said several times that in the mutations they have seen would be covered by the same vaccine. Also, you do know that the general way for viruses to mutate is to become less deadly - killing the host is an inefficient way to spread.

Yes. very aware of that. However, they usually become more deadly before that point is reached - which seems to be the case, especially with the L strain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The reason for the mutations still being covered, by the way, is that most of them are in the RNA inside the virus, which isn't what a vaccine guards against. It'll be based on the "spikes" on the outside. Indeed, I understand the Oxford virus has been created by putting the same spikes on another harmless coronavirus.

 

[Meerkat]

A rushed vaccine makes me a bit nervous. Can I volunteer to be in the 40% that don’t take it, relying on the other 60% to be vaccinated into herd immunity??

 

[Bletchleyite]

A rushed vaccine makes me a bit nervous. Can I volunteer to be in the 40% that don’t take it, relying on the other 60% to be vaccinated into herd immunity??

It won't be "rushed", which is why it's 12-18 months off.

 

[Meerkat]

It won't be "rushed", which is why it's 12-18 months off.

Isn’t that still rushed in vaccine terms, or is the testing fixed, just the development that is accelerated?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Isn’t that still rushed in vaccine terms, or is the testing fixed, just the development that is accelerated?

I believe it's the development that's being accelerated, as you say.

 

[Domh245]

The testing is still long and thorough - that's why even though they've started trials we're at least 12-18 months away from it.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

It won't be "rushed", which is why it's 12-18 months off.

In vaccine terms, it is "rushed". Unless an existing vaccine can be altered, development and testing typically takes years

And then it takes at least a year for its efficacy to be analyzed. Until then, those who receive the vaccine are simply live guinea pigs

 

[HH]

In vaccine terms, it is "rushed". Unless an existing vaccine can be altered, development and testing typically takes years

And then it takes at least a year for its efficacy to be analyzed. Until then, those who receive the vaccine are simply live guinea pigs

Better a live guinea pig, than as dead as a dodo.

 

[HH]

Yes. very aware of that. However, they usually become more deadly before that point is reached - which seems to be the case, especially with the L strain.

As the L-strain appears to have been prevalent in Wuhan, it would appear that it is more likely that the S-strain is a later mutation.