Now if we had call volumes to the Samaritans that might tell us something. It feels like the current circumstances will lead to more depression, which in turn would increase suicides, but life isn't as simple as that - for instance, suicides spike at Xmas.
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Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?
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Now if we had call volumes to the Samaritans that might tell us something. It feels like the current circumstances will lead to more depression, which in turn would increase suicides, but life isn't as simple as that - for instance, suicides spike at Xmas.
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
There are various nuances to this. Certainly this is one where introversion is now a virtue, which must take pressure off introverts to conform to a norm of extroversion. But introverts don't just stay at home an read a book. I'm not finding being on my own bad at all, but I am getting a bit stir crazy from not being able to e.g. go out and ride trains on my own. My mental health is generally pretty much OK, though. Now imagine someone who was already fighting depression when this all started.
Depending on what was causing that depression, they might have actually improved. I really don't think it's that simple. Although I know that the scientific advisors are worried about our mental health, they haven't intimated (unlike with domestic violence) that it's currently a significant issue. Maybe that will change.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
It is likely to over the next year or two. Do some reading on the Great Depression.
This is so true. Even being able to sit in a pub and read a book would be a nice change of scene.
Done plenty already thanks. You're assuming that the economic downturn will be like the Great Depression, whereas in reality it will be completely different. We really don't know how it will pan out yet.
nlogax
Established Member
Out of sentences two and three, which is it? Can't be both.
Of course it can. We don't know exactly how it will pan out, but we do know it won't be like the great depression, because the reasons for it are completely different.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
No, we don't.
nlogax
Established Member
Sorry HH, that makes zero sense.
We don't know anything at the moment. A depression can't be ruled out, nor can any other financial / societal impact. Until we know more this could go -any- way.
MDB1images
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Just as be a pointer(not saying it's right or wrong)but I've been at work throughout this and had to use social distancing since day 1 as part of my daily life.
First week or so very few people properly observed it at work but slowly it's become the norm and at work it's just what you do when having a conversation, it's now automatically done by the majority.
Equally hand washing, covering faces if coughing(in fact I've found people walk away mid conversation if coughing-even for a smokers 'cough')are all 'the norm'.
Just to temper that, when I go home and out to the shop my reaction is very different to people who haven't been socially distancing as the norm(my wife works from home)so if I'm in a shop or walking I drop back to maintain the 2metres and sometimes it's 'whats wrong' as if what I'm doing is wrong.
I think once people start to return to work and become more familiar it will be more accepted as the normal and for me being stood right next to a work colleague would now feel odd.
Of course in saying all that you could say what happens when everyone returns and is it achievable?
That is a question no-one can answer right now.
First week or so very few people properly observed it at work but slowly it's become the norm and at work it's just what you do when having a conversation, it's now automatically done by the majority.
Equally hand washing, covering faces if coughing(in fact I've found people walk away mid conversation if coughing-even for a smokers 'cough')are all 'the norm'.
Just to temper that, when I go home and out to the shop my reaction is very different to people who haven't been socially distancing as the norm(my wife works from home)so if I'm in a shop or walking I drop back to maintain the 2metres and sometimes it's 'whats wrong' as if what I'm doing is wrong.
I think once people start to return to work and become more familiar it will be more accepted as the normal and for me being stood right next to a work colleague would now feel odd.
Of course in saying all that you could say what happens when everyone returns and is it achievable?
That is a question no-one can answer right now.
I didn't rule out a depression. I said that it won't be the same as the great depression, because the underlying causes are completely different and the pattern of the depression will be different. Maybe neither you nor Bletchleyite want to recognise that fact, but it's nevertheless a fact.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
nlogax
Established Member
The perfect storm that resulted in the Great Depression doesn't necessarily look like the perfect storm that might cause another. Trade patterns, economies, science, inequalities - all have changed. Nobody can make any sort of definitive call on what will happen based upon how our economic and societal world looked a century ago.
You really need me to give you evidence that the causes of the great depression were different from the causes of the expected depression from corona virus? Really???
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
No, in order for me to believe your hypothesis that the depression won't be the same as the Great Depression you need to provide evidence that it won't. That the causes are different is not such proof; after all, I can break my leg by falling off my bike or falling down the stairs, two different incidents leading to the same outcome.
I'm not making a definitive call, I'm saying that this the situation is very different to the great depression and therefore it won't be the same. We can't look to the great depression for information on how this will play out economically any more than we can look to the Spanish Flu pamdemic of 1918 on how this will turn out medically.
nlogax
Established Member
That's...a definitive call.
Except that falling down the stairs you also broke your neck. Thanks for the great simile.
No it's a statement of fact. There is no similarity at all in the causes and therefore it cannot play out in the same way. That's even if you ignore the fact that the world is a very different place than it was 91 years ago.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I already said so and I said it again - the first part of that sentence does not in any way imply the second.
Again, evidence please.
As someone who never produces evidence for their own assertions, you have a bit of brass cheek asking for evidence that you know cannot exist, as we aren't even properly in the depression yet. But I have absolutely no doubt that this will not play out the same as the great depression; there is zero chance. We can come back in nine years and I'll expect you to eat humble pie...
Coming in a bit late to this discussion, but I don't see how "social distancing" is compatible with public transport. The capacity of planes, buses and train would be reduced to an extent to make the service economically unviable, and bordering on completely pointless from an environmental and traffic reduction POV.
I think the answer is that we have to learn how to live with the virus. That means lockdown until there are very few cases, and a huge investment in contact tracing and enforced quarantine until tested & proven virus free for people who have been in contact with an infected person.
The mooted apps and phone tracking would be an ideal way of doing this. In time you'd be able to use the data to hone the response "so, we know that actually the chance of infection is almost zero unless you are within x metres of y minutes", and you could flex the alert threshold up and down dependant upon levels of infection - so as infection gets to very low levels you widen the net to really find that last few infections and work toward eradication.
Problem is the civil liberties lot won't allow it. I'd far rather we had mandatory location tracing and enforced testing and quarantine than stupid passive measures such as mask wearing.
The media are obsessed with "When will lockdown be eased". That doesn't interest me - the truth is nobody knows yet. What's far more interesting, and not being asked, is "What next? How do we prevent the virus spreading again once we have achieved low levels of infection, accepting that continued significant social distancing, business closures and curbs on leisure activities are undesirable and unfeasible in the medium to long term?"
I think the answer is that we have to learn how to live with the virus. That means lockdown until there are very few cases, and a huge investment in contact tracing and enforced quarantine until tested & proven virus free for people who have been in contact with an infected person.
The mooted apps and phone tracking would be an ideal way of doing this. In time you'd be able to use the data to hone the response "so, we know that actually the chance of infection is almost zero unless you are within x metres of y minutes", and you could flex the alert threshold up and down dependant upon levels of infection - so as infection gets to very low levels you widen the net to really find that last few infections and work toward eradication.
Problem is the civil liberties lot won't allow it. I'd far rather we had mandatory location tracing and enforced testing and quarantine than stupid passive measures such as mask wearing.
The media are obsessed with "When will lockdown be eased". That doesn't interest me - the truth is nobody knows yet. What's far more interesting, and not being asked, is "What next? How do we prevent the virus spreading again once we have achieved low levels of infection, accepting that continued significant social distancing, business closures and curbs on leisure activities are undesirable and unfeasible in the medium to long term?"
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
So, it's your opinion that it will not play out the same, as you have no evidence.
OK, I'm happy with that, but it is not my opinion.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
You speak as if the two are mutually exclusive. What if both together can allow the lockdown to be loosened even further?
nlogax
Established Member
It could play out with the same end result. Based on our current economies, this (entirely different) base circumstance could result in exactly the same sort of scale of unemployment, deaths and prolonged global misery. Don't rule it out without some hard evidence disproving the likelihood. Without wanting to resort to the word 'unprecedented'.. I'm sick to death of it.. this whole situation really is just that.
One quick note worth a read. I'm done with this conversation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/26/cor...mployment-will-approach-great-depression.html
No that is not the case - Lockdown will be eased (in the UK) when the Governments five tests are met:
Coronavirus lockdown: Are the five tests being met?
Ministers have set five tests for easing restrictions in England. How are we doing?
www.bbc.co.uk
There's strong evidence that contact tracing and testing works. There's zero evidence large scale mask wearing works.
That'll all change now Boris is back in No. 10. In any case the get out is one of the tests being sure that loosening won't risk a second peak.No that is not the case - Lockdown will be eased (in the UK) when the Governments five tests are met:
Coronavirus lockdown: Are the five tests being met?
Ministers have set five tests for easing restrictions in England. How are we doing?
Ok I think I can see where the issue lies. You consider large scale unemployment, deaths and prolonged global misery as being the same end result. All of those are likely I agree, so I don't disagree with you on those points.
It's just where the unemployment lies, both in terms of countries and industries, will be different. Also it seems likely that the response of governments will be different (well it already is). Plus there's the fact that this is an externally caused depression, unlike the great depression, which was kick-started by the bursting of the US stock market bubble. With so many differences it just can't play out the same way.
P.S. You have to realise that the great depression was an even bigger event in the US than elsewhere; unemployment was at 25%. It seems a bit previous to be forecasting that at the moment, especially as Trump appears to be keen to get out of lockdown. You might say that the US is a test of what happens if you are not too bothered by the death toll.
nedchester
Established Member
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They do. Well there's got to be a reason why operators have been asked by the DfT to start Saturday timetables from 18/5/20.
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