Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

[Meerkat]

We shall see. A lot of big, powerful, business leaders are going to be putting the pressure on Boris now. Will he cave or realise how close be came to dying?

Heck, it isn't up to Boris. Dominic will surely device what Boris decides.

You say this as though the business leaders just pact for themselves, and not effectively for all the workers that rely on them getting their businesses up and running as soon as possible!

 

[Killingworth]

Time will tell, but the longer we manage without something, whatever it may be, the more we discover we didn't need it at all.

How many manage without rail travel longer term is something we can't accurately predict. Some will be put off just by the thought of having to wear a mask. Others will just get on with it, whatever the risks. Some lines will be back to 80% loads within 3-6 months. Others may be down 50% and only creep up to 80% after 5-10 years. Transport in general is likely to take a big hit.

It's a really scary time for accountants as nobody currently knows how this can all be financed. We all know it's going to be very expensive. The hopes of reopening lines closed in the Beeching era must be put on hold until we decide if we can preserve and improve all the ones that are still open.

 

[The Ham]

Time will tell, but the longer we manage without something, whatever it may be, the more we discover we didn't need it at all.

How many manage without rail travel longer term is something we can't accurately predict. Some will be put off just by the thought of having to wear a mask. Others will just get on with it, whatever the risks. Some lines will be back to 80% loads within 3-6 months. Others may be down 50% and only creep up to 80% after 5-10 years. Transport in general is likely to take a big hit.

It's a really scary time for accountants as nobody currently knows how this can all be financed. We all know it's going to be very expensive. The hopes of reopening lines closed in the Beeching era must be put on hold until we decide if we can preserve and improve all the ones that are still open.

Whilst there's a risk that rail use will be down, at least in the short term, we also need to consider that the same would also be true of road travel.

Now as road travel falls there's likely to be a partial shift to rail, so provide for those trips which are still needed. For example the more people work from home, the less they can justify the cost of car ownership. This would then mean that rail could see a bit of an uplift.

Now given that 80% of travel is by road and 10% is by rail if there was a 20% fall across all modes (16% of the total no longer drive and 2% of the total no longer go by rail), other than air and active travel modes which saw a shift from air to active travel, then there'll only need to be a small shift from road to rail (2.5% of current road use) to offset those losses seen by rail.

 

[Mikey C]

Whilst there's a risk that rail use will be down, at least in the short term, we also need to consider that the same would also be true of road travel.

Now as road travel falls there's likely to be a partial shift to rail, so provide for those trips which are still needed. For example the more people work from home, the less they can justify the cost of car ownership. This would then mean that rail could see a bit of an uplift.

Now given that 80% of travel is by road and 10% is by rail if there was a 20% fall across all modes (16% of the total no longer drive and 2% of the total no longer go by rail), other than air and active travel modes which saw a shift from air to active travel, then there'll only need to be a small shift from road to rail (2.5% of current road use) to offset those losses seen by rail.

I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. Unlike with rail travel which in general is a fixed price, there are lots of options when it comes to car ownership. If you aren't driving so often, you may choose to keep your car longer, you may go for a cheaper model, or you may even go for something flashier and less efficient if it's just for leisure travel.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. Unlike with rail travel which in general is a fixed price, there are lots of options when it comes to car ownership. If you aren't driving so often, you may choose to keep your car longer, you may go for a cheaper model, or you may even go for something flashier and less efficient if it's just for leisure travel.

It's still quite a large fixed cost to overcome to run a car though, whatever iteration you choose

 

[Horizon22]

Within London, I imagine the metro services will generally end up being busier than the long distance services. Either during current key worker travel services, these are busier. Mainly I imagine that, if you work these jobs you work in shift industries and need to be reasonably close to work. Those who live further afield in Home Counties more readibly able to work from home and will maybe up there days-per-week they work from home once these start going back to work. Generalisations, but from my experience I imagine how this will go.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Within London, I imagine the metro services will generally end up being busier than the long distance services. Either during current key worker travel services, these are busier. Mainly I imagine that, if you work these jobs you work in shift industries and need to be reasonably close to work. Those who live further afield in Home Counties more readibly able to work from home and will maybe up there days-per-week they work from home once these start going back to work. Generalisations, but from my experience I imagine how this will go.

Most probably. If you look at how quiet south WCML commuter services are on Fridays compared with other days, it's very clear that a very high percentage of commuters on that route (and probably other medium-long Home Counties commuter routes) are already capable of remote working and have just switched from one day a week to 100% relatively easily.

A cleaner not so much.

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. Unlike with rail travel which in general is a fixed price, there are lots of options when it comes to car ownership. If you aren't driving so often, you may choose to keep your car longer, you may go for a cheaper model, or you may even go for something flashier and less efficient if it's just for leisure travel.

Whilst there are cheaper options for car ownership, some costs happen regardless as to how many miles you travel a year. For instance if you do 1,000 or 10,000 miles a year you still need to service your car, you still need to pay VED, and so on.

All those costs increase the cost per mile the fewer miles that you do.

For instance if you almost totally use a car for travel to/from work and it costs you £2,500 a year to do so then over a standard working year that's £10/day. If your have an option to go by rail at £10/day then you're going to keep the car.

Now if you reduce the number of days you're in the office to 150 days and your costs fall to £2,250 (due to lower fuel costs) then the daily cost changes to £15/day, chances are that some people would opt to get rid of their car.

Now on the above is based on around previously doing 5,000 miles a year and that equates to 50p/mile (with the WFH option being 3,000 miles at 75p/mile), rarely does rail cost that much lower mile, so my guess for rail travel costs are probably fairly high.

 

[Horizon22]

Whilst there are cheaper options for car ownership, some costs happen regardless as to how many miles you travel a year. For instance if you do 1,000 or 10,000 miles a year you still need to service your car, you still need to pay VED, and so on.

All those costs increase the cost per mile the fewer miles that you do.

For instance if you almost totally use a car for travel to/from work and it costs you £2,500 a year to do so then over a standard working year that's £10/day. If your have an option to go by rail at £10/day then you're going to keep the car.

Now if you reduce the number of days you're in the office to 150 days and your costs fall to £2,250 (due to lower fuel costs) then the daily cost changes to £15/day, chances are that some people would opt to get rid of their car.

Now on the above is based on around previously doing 5,000 miles a year and that equates to 50p/mile (with the WFH option being 3,000 miles at 75p/mile), rarely does rail cost that much lower mile, so my guess for rail travel costs are probably fairly high.

You are assuming people are completely economically sensible about there cars from a mathematical perspective. Already many fail to factor in the costs of insurance, parking etc. from their travel assessments.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You are assuming people are completely economically sensible about there cars from a mathematical perspective. Already many fail to factor in the costs of insurance, parking etc. from their travel assessments.

As I've repeatedly pointed out, that's because a per-mile model is not the only valid one, nor indeed the most common one people use.

I personally see purchase, insurance, servicing (which due to low mileage is always annual) etc as a sunk "subscription" cost of car ownership, which is the price of owning one as a lifestyle choice. The per-mile cost is therefore to all intents and purposes just fuel plus a tiny amount of wear and tear. This model is much more common, and public transport advocates who keep parroting otherwise are just onto a total loser. There is nothing "not sensible" about this model.

This is why the Railcard model has, er, mileage. You can move public transport to a partially sunk cost, making it compete better when it comes to a decision on which to use.

 

[Meerkat]

If anything Covid has proved the superiority of car ownership.
Safe in your own bubble for that period when commuters where still riding in the Covid incubators to work, and still available the whole time - unlike public transport which has arbitrarily been taken away from users (justifiably, but that’s no good to someone still reliant on them to get to work)

 

[Carlisle]

The hopes of reopening lines closed in the Beeching era must be put on hold

Sadly true & additionally not proceed any further with HS2 or any other major capacity improvements until a clear & workable end date to social distancing has been agreed & set by government

 

[theironroad]

Sadly true & additionally not proceed any further with HS2 or any other major capacity improvements until a clear & workable end date to social distancing has been agreed & set by government

Social distancing and covid will be long past by the time hs2 starts to actually run any trains and rail will have rebounded.

 

[Meerkat]

Sadly true & additionally not proceed any further with HS2 or any other major capacity improvements until a clear & workable end date to social distancing has been agreed & set by government

If things were really to reduce that much it would be best to build HS2 and rationalise the WCML!

 

[yorksrob]

If anything Covid has proved the superiority of car ownership.
Safe in your own bubble for that period when commuters where still riding in the Covid incubators to work, and still available the whole time - unlike public transport which has arbitrarily been taken away from users (justifiably, but that’s no good to someone still reliant on them to get to work)

The space issues associated with car ownership, such as congestion and trying to live around traffic, haven't gone away. They will rebound in any shift towards greater car use.

The noticable upsurge in car usage over the past few days during my daily walk, has served to illustrate just how unpleasant, noisy, smelly and in the way, traffic is.

 

[Meerkat]

The space issues associated with car ownership, such as congestion and trying to live around traffic, haven't gone away. They will rebound in any shift towards greater car use.

The noticable upsurge in car usage over the past few days during my daily walk, has served to illustrate just how unpleasant, noisy, smelly and in the way, traffic is.

All correct, but not really applicable to the decision to stay nice and isolated in your wonderfully convenient warm dry car!

 

[yorksrob]

All correct, but not really applicable to the decision to stay nice and isolated in your wonderfully convenient warm dry car!

True. But the massive up front investment cost hasn't gone away either !

 

[Mikey C]

Whilst there are cheaper options for car ownership, some costs happen regardless as to how many miles you travel a year. For instance if you do 1,000 or 10,000 miles a year you still need to service your car, you still need to pay VED, and so on.

All those costs increase the cost per mile the fewer miles that you do.

For instance if you almost totally use a car for travel to/from work and it costs you £2,500 a year to do so then over a standard working year that's £10/day. If your have an option to go by rail at £10/day then you're going to keep the car.

Now if you reduce the number of days you're in the office to 150 days and your costs fall to £2,250 (due to lower fuel costs) then the daily cost changes to £15/day, chances are that some people would opt to get rid of their car.

Now on the above is based on around previously doing 5,000 miles a year and that equates to 50p/mile (with the WFH option being 3,000 miles at 75p/mile), rarely does rail cost that much lower mile, so my guess for rail travel costs are probably fairly high.

There's still a massive financial difference between a £30k new car (however you pay for it) and a £10k or cheaper older car

I have an 18 year old Ford Focus which I use for certain leisure journeys, doing 2000 to 3000 miles a year as for some trips, public transport really doesn't work well, and that's for someone living in London which has far better public transport than the rest of the country. The family car is still massively convenient even if you don't use it that often, especially if you have children, elderly parents, need to take stuff to the tip, want to go to the countryside, self catering holidays etc

 

[yorksrob]

I guess the car will still be convenient for the same people for whom it was convenient before the epidemic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The space issues associated with car ownership, such as congestion and trying to live around traffic, haven't gone away. They will rebound in any shift towards greater car use.

The noticable upsurge in car usage over the past few days during my daily walk, has served to illustrate just how unpleasant, noisy, smelly and in the way, traffic is.

How true. I went for a bike ride Sunday morning out into the villages, and the lack of anything other than cyclists, runners and walkers made it rather pleasant and a bit of a step back in time.

 

[Meerkat]

True. But the massive up front investment cost hasn't gone away either !

Up front cost can be very low these days. Season tickets aren’t exactly cheap!

I guess the car will still be convenient for the same people for whom it was convenient before the epidemic.

plus those who are now even more scared of other people

 

[yorksrob]

How true. I went for a bike ride Sunday morning out into the villages, and the lack of anything other than cyclists, runners and walkers made it rather pleasant and a bit of a step back in time.

True. I will miss the sound of birdsong on my walk into town.

 

[baz962]

Within London, I imagine the metro services will generally end up being busier than the long distance services. Either during current key worker travel services, these are busier. Mainly I imagine that, if you work these jobs you work in shift industries and need to be reasonably close to work. Those who live further afield in Home Counties more readibly able to work from home and will maybe up there days-per-week they work from home once these start going back to work. Generalisations, but from my experience I imagine how this will go.

100% agree with this post. It was my thought as well and I drive metro route's and still have busyish train's , albeit at around the traditional peak periods.

 

[Mikey C]

Up front cost can be very low these days. Season tickets aren’t exactly cheap!

A REAL issue the rail industry has to address is that if rail commuters start working from home more, and only come in say 3 days a week, the monthly/annual season ticket is starting to look very poor value for money. A new form of ticketing is required to give some sort of multi day discount, based on usage...

 

[al78]

As I've repeatedly pointed out, that's because a per-mile model is not the only valid one, nor indeed the most common one people use.

I personally see purchase, insurance, servicing (which due to low mileage is always annual) etc as a sunk "subscription" cost of car ownership, which is the price of owning one as a lifestyle choice. The per-mile cost is therefore to all intents and purposes just fuel plus a tiny amount of wear and tear. This model is much more common, and public transport advocates who keep parroting otherwise are just onto a total loser. There is nothing "not sensible" about this model.

This is why the Railcard model has, er, mileage. You can move public transport to a partially sunk cost, making it compete better when it comes to a decision on which to use.

It depends what your argument is. Is it about choosing public transport over the car for a particular journey, or is it about selling the car and using public transport, foot and bicycle for all journeys. The financial arguments are different for these situations. Depreciation and fixed costs like tax, insurance, servicing are more applicable to the second case, whereas the tangible per-journey cost such as fuel (and servicing to second order) is applicable to the first case.

I've tried going car free and managed it for a couple of years. I found what you save in money, you pay for in terms of inconvenience, physical energy expenditure, time, and vulnerability. When I visit family, driving is less than half the cost, and having a car allows me to comfortably do a day's hillwalking in the Lakes or Snowdonia, so for a financial and personal convenience point of view, the car is the obvious choice. I will use the train if I know I won't need the car at the other end just because I like to make more environmentally responsible choices, but you often get punished for doing so.

There is also the in-between (sort of hybrid) case of selling the car and joining a local car club, using foot, bicycle and public transport as the default choices, and making use of the car club (you pay a monthly subscription and a per hour fee for a vehicle which includes fuel) for those journeys where the car is the only feasible mode of transport.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It depends what your argument is. Is it about choosing public transport over the car for a particular journey, or is it about selling the car and using public transport, foot and bicycle for all journeys. The financial arguments are different for these situations. Depreciation and fixed costs like tax, insurance, servicing are more applicable to the second case, whereas the tangible per-journey cost such as fuel (and servicing to second order) is applicable to the first case.

There is also the in-between (sort of hybrid) case of selling the car and joining a local car club, using foot, bicycle and public transport as the default choices, and making use of the car club (you pay a monthly subscription and a per hour fee for a vehicle which includes fuel) for those journeys where the car is the only feasible mode of transport.

And the other in-between, which is of households moving from two cars to one car (I do know a young family that's done this because they've just moved to Wolverton where Tesco is within walking distance and one of the two commutes by train anyway). That is a more feasible aim. People choosing to give up all their car access is much less likely other than in the very major cities; public transport just isn't good enough. And as I've said before, full family cars don't really need discouraging, they are a pollution- and road space-efficient mode of transport. It's cars with one person in them that are the key issue.

I'd go so far as to say if the industry wants to push some level of "car removal", it's "one per household" that it should be aiming at, rather than the near-unachievable "zero per household".

Which of course means the figure that matters is still fuel, not total running cost worked out per mile. There is no point dodging this and the industry has to accept it, and look to push down the cost at the point of use by way of things like Railcards.

 

[yorksrob]

A REAL issue the rail industry has to address is that if rail commuters start working from home more, and only come in say 3 days a week, the monthly/annual season ticket is starting to look very poor value for money. A new form of ticketing is required to give some sort of multi day discount, based on usage...

Absolutely. The industry should have got its act together on this before the epidemic.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or pack in all this "niche discount" stuff and just charge a more reasonable price for Anytime (Day) Singles and Returns. We all pay for the outrageous price of these in the end through the goods and services we buy.

People will still use seasons even if they don't offer much of a discount, they're quite convenient to have. For instance the Swiss sell 6-trip "carnets" and people use these despite them just being priced at 6x the relevant single fare so no discount at all.

 

[jon0844]

It seems that Boris has seen sense to tell us not to prepare to go back to normal just yet.

 

[JonathanH]

A REAL issue the rail industry has to address is that if rail commuters start working from home more, and only come in say 3 days a week, the monthly/annual season ticket is starting to look very poor value for money. A new form of ticketing is required to give some sort of multi day discount, based on usage...

Why is a multi-day discount needed at all? Weekly capping would provide a limit on expenditure with everything else PAYG.