Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

[MikeWh]

I disagree that shopping a bit cheaper is an essential need to travel.

The price difference between Aldi and Waitrose is not "a bit". It's something like twice the price for a similar large shop. People simply can't afford that vs. taking the bus or train to the nearest German discounter.

I get a feeling of a bit of "I'm all right Jack" here?

Quite!

Add in that many people are on reduced income and thus needing to shop accordingly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I take your point but...
how many people have a Waitrose nearby and not a Tesco/Morrison’s/etc.

It depends what you mean "nearby". If you live near Oakgrove in MK you've got a Waitrose nearby. The nearest Tesco at Kingston isn't miles away (it's probably about 2km), but it's enough for some people (e.g. older people) to need public transport rather than walking.

 

[Meerkat]

It depends what you mean "nearby". If you live near Oakgrove in MK you've got a Waitrose nearby. The nearest Tesco at Kingston isn't miles away (it's probably about 2km), but it's enough for some people (e.g. older people) to need public transport rather than walking.

TBF I did. saying shopping ‘a bit’ cheaper isn’t essential......
i nearly pulled my arms out their sockets the first time I went to Sainsbury’s and they had restocked with things I had been waiting for. I always forget I have to carry it a mile home!

 

[Bletchleyite]

TBF I did. saying shopping ‘a bit’ cheaper isn’t essential......
i nearly pulled my arms out their sockets the first time I went to Sainsbury’s and they had restocked with things I had been waiting for. I always forget I have to carry it a mile home!

I always buy more than I expect. Went to one of the local Co-ops on foot with a couple of large bags and could barely carry them home. And I am not an 8 stone weakling

 

[yorksrob]

Interesting article on the BBC reporting on a poll by SYSTRA (a transport consultants) which suggests that rail usage could drop by 27%.

Coronavirus: Transport usage will change after lockdown

Public transport usage won't recover to pre-Covid19 levels once the lockdown ends, a survey suggests.

www.bbc.co.uk

The number of people using public transport in Britain's cities could be 20% lower than normal after the end of the coronavirus lockdown.

In London, commuters using buses and tubes could fall by as much as 40% from pre-lockdown levels.

Rail use could drop by 27%, a poll for transport consultants SYSTRA has found.

The survey results capture people's current attitudes about returning to work, but some changes may be carried on into the long term.

The results are bad news for the government, which wants more people to use public transport to cut emissions that are fuelling climate heating.

It could lead to more people driving to work.

It's also challenging for public transport operators, which will face a sharp drop in income until public confidence returns.

Work from home
But the survey offers a glimmer of good news too. It suggests that of those expecting to reduce their use of buses and trains, 24% said they plan to work from home more, which will reduce emissions.

They said they wanted to save on the commute time and cost, and to strike a better work-life balance.

There's a major boost for video-conferencing, too. As many as 67% of people in the 1,500-strong survey said they believe virtual meetings will replace some or all business trips or meetings.

Katie Hall from SYSTRA said: "Our climate emergency has not been cancelled. There is no doubt that this situation has opened up different ways of working for many, but if people start rejecting public transport over the car for work and leisure trips - that's a massive step backwards. Public transport operators must rise to this challenge."

She said public transport operators must work hard to convince commuters that they'll be safe from the virus.
Transport for London has has cut many services since the coronavirus outbreak swept through the capital
Plan for change
But she also said transport planners would need to think hard about how travel patterns may change permanently after lockdown.

The AA's head Edmund King told BBC News he expected that traffic levels would fall overall. That has implications for the government's £28bn roads programme which is predicated on 1% annual growth in transport demand.

There could also be a boom in walking and cycling in a population that may be more interested in health messages.

The government recently cut red tape on issuing urban road closures to allow councils to exclude cars and create space for walkers and cyclists more easily.

Cycle campaigners want cars excluded from major parts of cities on a permanent basis - which happened recently in Milan.

If there is a 27% drop in rail travel and 40% in London it would ease the pressure on the network's pinch points. A fair amount of this would be people working from home for longer. I don't think that such a drop would be catastrophic for the network - afterall, it would be going back to a level of usage of a few years ago, but it might affect how the system's funded.

Interestingly, they're expecting a long term drop in transport usage more generally, with impacts for the road programme as people eschew travelling further. I'm not convinced that people will want to stop visiting places in the long term, but we will have to see.

 

[HH]

Interestingly, they're expecting a long term drop in transport usage more generally, with impacts for the road programme as people eschew travelling further. I'm not convinced that people will want to stop visiting places in the long term, but we will have to see.

I think what people say now, and what they'll be thinking in a year's time (say) will be rather different. But I do expect some long-term changes in travel habits.

 

[yorksrob]

I think what people say now, and what they'll be thinking in a year's time (say) will be rather different. But I do expect some long-term changes in travel habits.

Yes, I suspect there's an element of new year's resolutions about some of it.

 

[Smidster]

Yes, I suspect there's an element of new year's resolutions about some of it.

I suspect it will be a bit of both. It is reasonable to suggest that some travel habits will change as working patterns do as it feels pretty much inevitable that more people will work remotely more often.

Leisure may be less impacted - people will want to travel again as events will start to happen again, families will meet and ultimately we are a social species who need each others company.

In terms of the immediate situation I think the question is maybe less about the rail management and more about load management. As people do start to return to work we need to think about how to space them through the day which feels more achievable than other methods of social distancing.

I hope there are some revisions at the next review but would not be surprised if there weren't

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect it will be a bit of both. It is reasonable to suggest that some travel habits will change as working patterns do as it feels pretty much inevitable that more people will work remotely more often.

Leisure may be less impacted - people will want to travel again as events will start to happen again, families will meet and ultimately we are a social species who need each others company.

In terms of the immediate situation I think the question is maybe less about the rail management and more about load management. As people do start to return to work we need to think about how to space them through the day which feels more achievable than other methods of social distancing.

I hope there are some revisions at the next review but would not be surprised if there weren't

I think continued working from home for those that can will play a big part in load management. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if my employer closed my office permanently in the interim.

 

[Meerkat]

They asked the employees rather than the employers, and it’s still relatively early and not the final version - ie more partners and kids at home, is that a negative or longer term will workers get lonely and crave the office chatter etc?
Certainly short term the road traffic will go back to the same or worse IMO. Congestion is a factor in people’s choices and if home working reduces congestion then more likely that public transport users will switch and people will travel further to work.

 

[yorksrob]

It has to be said, the study was very commuter based.

I wonder if in the long term, the whole railway network will become more leisure orientated - if you're going to risk the germs, it might as well be going somewhere that you actually want to go, rather than the office.

 

[JonathanH]

It has to be said, the study was very commuter based.

I wonder if in the long term, the whole railway network will become more leisure orientated - if you're going to risk the germs, it might as well be going somewhere that you actually want to go, rather than the office.

You can quite easily take the alternative view that the railway network will continue, even in the long term, to be reserved for essential travel with continued restrictions on travel which is not related to travel to a workplace.

 

[chris11256]

In the immediate future I can easily see commuter rail traffic lagging behind for a while, with many more people choose to drive to avoid the risk of infection. Especially if oil prices stay low for a while.

 

[yorksrob]

You can quite easily take the alternative view that the railway network will continue, even in the long term, to be reserved for essential travel with continued restrictions on travel which is not related to travel to a workplace.

If that is the case, it will lead to some very disgruntled citizens and potentially a collapse in cooperation with the authorities.

 

[The Ham]

To put a 20% fall in rail use in perspective a 2.5% shift from road to rail would offset that fall.

Now I can guess what some are thinking, that we are talking about people saying that they aren't going to use rail to get to work, so what does road travel have to do with it.

Well chances are if rail travelers are thinking it, so are those who drive to work. Now you may get a different percentage fall, but there's likely to be a similar fall.

Now some of that reduction may result in some people using rail more than they did before. Especially if by WFH it allows them to reduce the numbers of cars within a household.

If you can cut your weekly fuel bill from £80 to £40 but with a £25 rail bill then chances are that's what you'll do. Especially if it saves you other motoring costs in addition to that as well.

 

[matt_world2004]

It has to be said, the study was very commuter based.

I wonder if in the long term, the whole railway network will become more leisure orientated - if you're going to risk the germs, it might as well be going somewhere that you actually want to go, rather than the office.

They won't explicitly say this,but they can nudge people in that direction by blocking advance ticket sales and even the sales of non season tickets.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You can quite easily take the alternative view that the railway network will continue, even in the long term, to be reserved for essential travel with continued restrictions on travel which is not related to travel to a workplace.

This may be the case, the unions in particular seem to be pushing for it. But this is a Tory Government, and the Tories like crushing unions, so if they're too pushy about it...

 

[Bletchleyite]

They won't explicitly say this,but they can nudge people in that direction by blocking advance ticket sales and even the sales of non season tickets.

I'm more inclined to think they might actually block sales of non-Advance tickets, because with Advances they can ensure that specific train services are not overcrowded. Just crank the prices up somewhat.

There's also potential here for bus and coach companies - if we need to keep the railway for essential workers but can economically do buses with some seats left empty, they could see a resurgence, at potentially higher fares to make leaving seats empty remunerative. The kind of market segment that doesn't own a car (and let's not pretend that anyone who does have one is not just going to use it, particularly with cheap fuel) is one which will typically not have issues with using buses and coaches.

 

[yorksrob]

This may be the case, the unions in particular seem to be pushing for it. But this is a Tory Government, and the Tories like crushing unions, so if they're too pushy about it...

With a great move towards working from home, the Unions might want to think twice about alienating what will probably become a greater proportion of their customer base.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm more inclined to think they might actually block sales of non-Advance tickets, because with Advances they can ensure that specific train services are not overcrowded. Just crank the prices up somewhat.

There's also potential here for bus and coach companies - if we need to keep the railway for essential workers but can economically do buses with some seats left empty, they could see a resurgence, at potentially higher fares to make leaving seats empty remunerative. The kind of market segment that doesn't own a car (and let's not pretend that anyone who does have one is not just going to use it, particularly with cheap fuel) is one which will typically not have issues with using buses and coaches.

Why push people onto a transport mode which is more cramped, and where staff are more likely to come into close contact with passengers ? This seems like lunacy.

 

[chris11256]

Blocking all non advance tickets wouldn't work on my route(c2c), they don't do advance tickets.

 

[Meerkat]

If you can cut your weekly fuel bill from £80 to £40 but with a £25 rail bill then chances are that's what you'll do. Especially if it saves you other motoring costs in addition to that as well.

IF you live close to the station, your workplace is near a station, the time is competitive, the timetable is frequent and convenient enough, and you can be bothered (for £15 pw I would rather have the comfort, solitude, convenience, flexibility, temperature control etc etc of my car!)

 

[The Ham]

IF you live close to the station, your workplace is near a station, the time is competitive, the timetable is frequent and convenient enough, and you can be bothered (for £15 pw I would rather have the comfort, solitude, convenience, flexibility, temperature control etc etc of my car!)

I admit that it wouldn't be possible for everyone.

£15/week is just the saving in fuel in that example of two people who previously had two cars and now opt for one (it's also worth noting that this would be about £700 a year or the equivalent of a £1,000 pay rise), there would probably be a further £20 (or more likely more) in other motoring costs by not having a car (£20 = £1,000/year which is very cheap to buy, insure, maintain, etc.). Due to paying tax that's close to a £2,500 pay rise for a basic rate tax payer.

Now whilst for some they would be willing to pay that, however with the potential for quite a few people being out of work or working in lower paid jobs or even just bring nervous about retaining their job then there's a good chance that, given the option, there's gonna to be quite a few people not looking to replace cars or to reduce the number in their household.

There's going to be quite a few people who think, I was lucky this time (as they were ferloughed), and so may well now think I'd better make sure that I've got better savings.

 

[jon0844]

With fuel prices low and many car parks currently free, I can see why people might opt to drive.. but car parks won't remain free once places start to open up. Fuel prices will, presumably, quickly rise.

People will be coming back to the railway and the issue now is making sure the trains are restored to coincide with the Monday that suddenly has the bulk of the 80% of people who stopped using trains coming back.

 

[Meerkat]

Car park charging will be an issue if everyone has to push a button.....

 

[87015]

With fuel prices low and many car parks currently free, I can see why people might opt to drive.. but car parks won't remain free once places start to open up. Fuel prices will, presumably, quickly rise.

People will be coming back to the railway and the issue now is making sure the trains are restored to coincide with the Monday that suddenly has the bulk of the 80% of people who stopped using trains coming back.

Even if the highly optimistic level of 80% service can be achieved, what runs will only be able to achieve 20-30% capacity under social distancing depending on stock. There is no way the railway can accommodate a large upturn in passengers within months without massive change.

 

[jon0844]

Even if the highly optimistic level of 80% service can be achieved, what runs will only be able to achieve 20-30% capacity under social distancing depending on stock. There is no way the railway can accommodate a large upturn in passengers within months without massive change.

I fear the Government is going to try and get things back to normal too quick and not consider how to make things safe - just tell people to do it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I fear the Government is going to try and get things back to normal too quick and not consider how to make things safe - just tell people to do it.

I don't think they will.

 

[yorksrob]

It could be that having everyone wear a face covering on public transport, has almost as beneficial an effect on transmission as spacing.

I'm not aware of countries such as South Korea and Taiwan having extreme spacing on public transport, and it doesn't appear to be a particularly extreme source of infection over there.

 

[jon0844]

I don't think they will.

We shall see. A lot of big, powerful, business leaders are going to be putting the pressure on Boris now. Will he cave or realise how close be came to dying?

Heck, it isn't up to Boris. Dominic will surely device what Boris decides.