Avanti West Coast and HS2.

[irish_rail]

I can't help but fear that a project costing over 80 billion is going to want to recoup some of that money and quickly, therefore seems unlikely that fares will not rise to take into account the faster journeys. Someone's got to pay for it, and I can't see that being anyone else but the passenger.

On a side note, is the plan for hs2 still to be driverless? If so, I wouldn't want to be an Avanti driver at Lime st now (unless I had 10 years or less before retirement! )

 

[Bald Rick]

I can't help but fear that a project costing over 80 billion is going to want to recoup some of that money and quickly, therefore seems unlikely that fares will not rise to take into account the faster journeys. Someone's got to pay for it, and I can't see that being anyone else but the passenger.

On a side note, is the plan for hs2 still to be driverless? If so, I wouldn't want to be an Avanti driver at Lime st now (unless I had 10 years or less before retirement! )

Fares will be set at a level that provides the most income for the railway, which doesn’t mean they will be set high. The seats will need filling.

HS2 has never been proposed to be driverless in passenger service. It has been proposed to be ATO, but with a driver in the front, just like most of the London Underground lines. Whether it still is the plan or not I don’t know, but I would be surprised if ATO wasn’t employed in some capacity.

 

[JonathanH]

I can't help but fear that a project costing over 80 billion is going to want to recoup some of that money and quickly, therefore seems unlikely that fares will not rise to take into account the faster journeys. Someone's got to pay for it, and I can't see that being anyone else but the passenger.

On a side note, is the plan for hs2 still to be driverless? If so, I wouldn't want to be an Avanti driver at Lime st now (unless I had 10 years or less before retirement! )

Even if HS2 were to be driverless, how would Liverpool to Handsacre be?

Yes, it needs to recoup its costs but the fares on the WCML services have to recoup the costs of ongoing maintenance on that route too. As discussed many times, the increase in capacity and faster journey times means lower staff and rolling stock costs than today's operation.

 

[Energy]

Fares will be set at a level that provides the most income for the railway, which doesn’t mean they will be set high. The seats will need filling.

HS2 has never been proposed to be driverless in passenger service. It has been proposed to be ATO, but with a driver in the front, just like most of the London Underground lines. Whether it still is the plan or not I don’t know, but I would be surprised if ATO wasn’t employed in some capacity.

ATO is only on the core section of Thameslink and some LU lines, these are at much lower speeds than HS2. Although I'd assume HS2 will have ETCS.

 

[Domh245]

ATO is only on the core section of Thameslink and some LU lines, these are at much lower speeds than HS2. Although I'd assume HS2 will have ETCS.

The implication being that human drivers are better at high speeds, or that ATO isn't technically feasible at high speeds? Because neither is true

 

[irish_rail]

Perhaps the ATO element could be axed in order to cut some of the upfront costs of building the route?

 

[si404]

I can't help but fear that a project costing over 80 billion is going to want to recoup some of that money and quickly, therefore seems unlikely that fares will not rise to take into account the faster journeys.

Aside from (in part due to faster journeys) the costs being lower, the supply to Liverpool would have doubled, meaning that there can be more money in moving more people cheaply than in moving similar numbers of people more expensively. Liverpool already sees this with special offers reducing the fare at quiet times in order to have more people travelling cheaply vs few people travelling expensively as there's more money in the former.

And, having spent all that money, the optics of lightly loaded trains is going to be something that HMG would really want to avoid. Bums on seats will be their desire.

Likewise, the doubling of capacity into Manchester that comes from phase 2b will create issues with the existing demand-managing price-gouging peak fares, possibly reducing them, but certainly making any increase a bad financial decision.

 

[Domh245]

Perhaps the ATO element could be axed in order to cut some of the upfront costs of building the route?

Surely the cost of ATO is tiny and won't represent much of a saving?

 

[Bald Rick]

ATO is only on the core section of Thameslink and some LU lines, these are at much lower speeds than HS2. Although I'd assume HS2 will have ETCS.

And Crossrail. And DLR, and countless railways around the world. Also some Chinese High Speed lines (one even operates driverless)

No need to sssume, HS2 will have ETCS Level 2.

Perhaps the ATO element could be axed in order to cut some of the upfront costs of building the route?

As others have said, once you have ETCS, the extra cost fo ATO is minimal. It’s essentially another computer on the train, and the cost of training the drivers to, err, not drive.

And the benefit in reliability is substantial.

 

[Energy]

The implication being that human drivers are better at high speeds, or that ATO isn't technically feasible at high speeds? Because neither is true

The way lots of these systems work is reading tags which are on the tracks, trying to read a tag at high speed isn't as easy as at lower speeds and the risk is higher as an accident would be much worse at high speed. It is also dependant on if any companies offer automatic trains at high speed.

And Crossrail. And DLR, and countless railways around the world. Also some Chinese High Speed lines (one even operates driverless)

No need to sssume, HS2 will have ETCS Level 2.

ETCS Level 2 I believe will happen but ETCS is just in cab signalling not a driverless train. Crossrail is only automatic in the underground section, the DLR is a metro system I have only said against high speed automatic trains unless they have had testing at high speed to prove them to be safe.

As others have said, once you have ETCS, the extra cost fo ATO is minimal. It’s essentially another computer on the train, and the cost of training the drivers to, err, not drive.

And the benefit in reliability is substantial.

The cost is quite low for ATO if ETCS is installed, the train already knows where it is from the ETCS equipment although on most automatic trains (excluding the DLR and that one in China) a driver is still on board and can take over control of the unit incase an issue arises. Another good thing about a true driverless train is that the only strike would be if we have 'computer says no'

 

[Bletchleyite]

The cost is quite low for ATO if ETCS is installed, the train already knows where it is from the ETCS equipment although on most automatic trains (excluding the DLR and that one in China) a driver is still on board and can take over control of the unit incase an issue arises. Another good thing about a true driverless train is that the only strike would be if we have 'computer says no'

I still wouldn't rule out "guard only operation" on HS2 at some point. The guard could, like on the DLR, be trained to drive the train manually on sight at low speed in emergencies.

 

[Energy]

I still wouldn't rule out "guard only operation" on HS2 at some point. The guard could, like on the DLR, be trained to drive the train manually on sight at low speed in emergencies.

Of course, we don't know what automatic train systems will be like in 5-10 or whatever years, the signals the ECML originally had and the new ETCS its getting fitted with are different.

 

[popeter45]

No need to sssume, HS2 will have ETCS Level 2.

is ETCS level 3 on the cards?, would help with the TPH expectations

 

[Energy]

is ETCS level 3 on the cards?, would help with the TPH expectations

According to Thales's (one of the suppliers for ETCS systems) website ETCS L3 is still under standardisation

 

[popeter45]

According to Thales's (one of the suppliers for ETCS systems) website ETCS L3 is still under standardisation

still 10 years till HS2 phase 1 opens so min 8 years till signalling needs installing so loads of time for standardisation

 

[cle]

Nothampton will benefit from extra calls at Rugby in fast trains via Weedon, for fast connections northward.

That is a reach. Change more!

There are clearly extra paths here. More stopping at Watford requires more headway (Rugby and MKC don't, due to layout) - but there is still more room here for additional services. A faster Birmingham could easily run via Northampton - not sure if that's better for demand than a Manchester service.

 

[Bald Rick]

The way lots of these systems work is reading tags which are on the tracks, trying to read a tag at high speed isn't as easy as at lower speeds and the risk is higher as an accident would be much worse at high speed. It is also dependant on if any companies offer automatic trains at high speed.

There’s plenty of railways around the world where trains operate under ETCS at 200mph, reading the ‘tags’ (balises) without any difficulty. The risk is no different. Given that the information is travelling from tag to train at 186,000 miles per second, it really doesn’t matter that the train is travelling at 200mph rather than 60mph.

ATO on ETCS is really rather straightforward, and (naturally) we Brits did it first.

is ETCS level 3 on the cards?, would help with the TPH expectations

No, and it wouldn’t help with the tph ‘expectations’.

 

[Ianno87]

That is a reach. Change more!

Given the limited northward fast service from Rugby today, it is quite clearly and demonstably a benefit.

 

[class26]

So the choice for Scousers heading to London would be a premium fare for Hs2 or an all stations suburban type emu . Not quite sure that's progress. At least if a Liverpool to London pendolino remained then people would have genuine choice. And so runcorn (which has a large catchment also) will be forced to change at Crewe for London or take the all stations service. I think it's fair to say hs2 has definite winners and losers.

Why do people keep saying HS2 will be premium fare ? Yield management will be used so the fare could be higher OR lower than other services, it depends on demand but it is not correct to assume as many are doing that it is going to have sky high fares.

 

[cle]

It's a **** sandwich. Or at least, a very low bar. More direct services northwards would be an actual benefit.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why do people keep saying HS2 will be premium fare ? Yield management will be used so the fare could be higher OR lower than other services, it depends on demand but it is not correct to assume as many are doing that it is going to have sky high fares.

I think the fares will be broadly similar, subject to inflation, as now.

The "suburban EMUs" are proving rather popular at the moment, though. I wonder which TOC is actually carrying more passengers from Liverpool to Euston? I wouldn't say it was a foregone conclusion that it is Avanti.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think the fares will be broadly similar, subject to inflation, as now.

The "suburban EMUs" are proving rather popular at the moment, though. I wonder which TOC is actually carrying more passengers from Liverpool to Euston? I wouldn't say it was a foregone conclusion that it is Avanti.

It’s definitely Avanti, by a country mile.