It also appears that the only direct train between Oxenholme & Penrith and London will be via the West Midlands
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Avanti West Coast and HS2.
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Bletchleyite
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Yes, I'm rather unconvinced by this and think the Lancaster HS2 portion really needs to extend to Carlisle calling at all stations between Preston and there. If that's operationally inconvenient, shove it in the loop at Oxenholme (or Lancaster P5) while something faster passes.
Will my Birmingham - Euston Advanced Single on 22nd August 2032 be valid via Chiltern if there's an engineering block on HS2 that week?
quantinghome
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That's the point of HS2. The WCML will no longer be a jack of all trades; instead it will focus on freight, commuter and regional services. The long distance stuff will be on HS2. This will allow massive improvements in service frequency. While there will still be trains running along the WCML from Euston to Liverpool or Manchester, these will not be intended for end-to-end journeys but to provide a frequent regional service.
quantinghome
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Good point. That throws a big spanner in the works. Better put HS2 on hold.Will my Birmingham - Euston Advanced Single on 22nd August 2032 be valid via Chiltern if there's an engineering block on HS2 that week?
MotorcycleAlan
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Depends of course on whether you are making an essential journey.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I would think that by 2032 COVID19 will have done one of:
- Wiped out the entire human race
- Evolved into something less harmful and going round like a cold
- Disappeared
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Will my Birmingham - Euston Advanced Single on 22nd August 2032 be valid via Chiltern if there's an engineering block on HS2 that week?
Part of the Avanti role will be to devise a workable fares structure involving routes via WCML and HS2.
I somehow doubt that HS2 will just be added to the multiplicity of existing Any Permitted routes into London.
In any case, HS2 is being built with bi-di signalling and fast crossovers, and with a track separation allowing work on one track while using the other.
You don't hear much about HS1 being blocked, or Eurostars being diverted all round the French houses because LGV Nord is blocked.
But there have been incidents blocking the line in France (eg subsidence because of WW1 military works under the route).
The HS2 route isn't blessed with diversion alternatives south of Birmingham.
The service frequencies shown are the ones used in the full business case. They don't have to be what is actually delivered, more can be done on top of that. We are not going into the 2029 and 2031 timetables blind either, there's already planning which shows the peak turnbucks at Tring (5), Bletchley (2), Milton Keynes Central, Northampton and Rugby (1 each). 2 services an hour for the Trent Valley and 4 via Birmingham, but exactly where they run to is clearly open for debate. But as this is a decade in the future there's plenty of time to manage it out.
I find it hard to believe that the HS2 Stoke-on-Trent and Macclesfield service will terminate at Macclesfield rather than continuing to Manchester, as well as the other mentions around the Lancaster service, which I also think should call at Birmingham Interchange. What exactly will happen to this service with respect of phase 2a and the Handsacre connection though, I don't know.
The other interesting thing is that it's now expected for High Speed services to launch from Old Oak Common in 2029. The current Avanti West Coast franchise only runs to March 3031, so by the time they reach London Euston they may not even be around an more.
I find it hard to believe that the HS2 Stoke-on-Trent and Macclesfield service will terminate at Macclesfield rather than continuing to Manchester, as well as the other mentions around the Lancaster service, which I also think should call at Birmingham Interchange. What exactly will happen to this service with respect of phase 2a and the Handsacre connection though, I don't know.
The other interesting thing is that it's now expected for High Speed services to launch from Old Oak Common in 2029. The current Avanti West Coast franchise only runs to March 3031, so by the time they reach London Euston they may not even be around an more.
London Trains
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Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
That's a very long franchise then
They might even have bothered painting one or two more Pendolinos by then!
Jorge Da Silva
Established Member
I suspect an extension may be given.
The residents of the various towns and cities that won’t have an HS2 service, but will retain a ‘fast’ WCML service, will disagree with you about non-stop (or at least limited stop services).
If everything stops at Watford and MK and Rugby, you’ve just added about 20% to the journey time to Coventry, for example.
As you can see on the WCML today, non stop services can be fitted in to the WCML south of Wugby without eating capacity. The timetable is based on a network much wider than just that section.
Perhaps an extension in certain hours might be feasible.
With direct trains to Manchester, Liverpool, London twice per hour already, Barrow/Windermere/Morecambe trains plus slow lumbering freights up Shap, north of Lancaster is very full no matter how much looping is done.
If Carlisle is picked uo by the Scotland trains, Penrith/Oxenholme demand probably isn't all that significant in the scheme of things.
Seems a touch premature to speculate 11 years in advance, but feel free...
Jorge Da Silva
Established Member
The DfT doucment only shows rugby to London remember HS2 will see additional capacity for crosscountry. This is a draft and any final service will be decided by Avanti and the DfT later on.
Plus this is only the Business Cae for Phase 1. XC etc will be covered in the 2b Business Case.
irish_rail
On Moderation
So the choice for Scousers heading to London would be a premium fare for Hs2 or an all stations suburban type emu . Not quite sure that's progress. At least if a Liverpool to London pendolino remained then people would have genuine choice. And so runcorn (which has a large catchment also) will be forced to change at Crewe for London or take the all stations service. I think it's fair to say hs2 has definite winners and losers.
That's assuming that HS2 gains a premium fare - seeing as they're in effect replacing the 'proper' ICWC services, I think it's more likely that they're priced at the same point as those services would have been, with the 'shadow' ICWC services (all bar the Chester/North Wales services) priced between those and the LNWR fare
Hate to break it to you, but Pendolinos are already a premium priced service.
I don't understand why the natural assumption is a premium fare when the train is routed via HS2 than the WCML. If they had been able to put a new pair of lines directly next to the existing WCML would that somehow now have a premium fare. EMR aren't going to change their fares between Kettering and St Pancras just because there are now four tracks instead of three.
That, combined with basic supply and demand. Supply i.e. capacity increases, so the market price (ie. the fare) falls. It'd be madness to build new railway capacity only to price people off of it.
I can see the WCML fasts schedule changing a lot more, as it seems that off peak there is capacity, and in the peaks, it's all for Leighton Buzzard!
I'd expect more for Watford Junction from this - but hourly Manchester is the biggest hole right now, so that is great. Hopefully it is the via Crewe service (as Rugby gets the Chester) for connections there.
Watford has higher usage than MKC currently (with much less long distance service), so it should see a similar service at least.
Northampton doesn't seem to do well either.
I'd expect more for Watford Junction from this - but hourly Manchester is the biggest hole right now, so that is great. Hopefully it is the via Crewe service (as Rugby gets the Chester) for connections there.
Watford has higher usage than MKC currently (with much less long distance service), so it should see a similar service at least.
Northampton doesn't seem to do well either.
And you need less of them to run the same frequency.
What?? Both HS2 services are anticipated to call at Runcorn?
Sounds like a vast improvement in their service to me? What purpose would a classic fast service from Liverpool serve? If people really want one though they can use the Holyhead to London services, which will still be fast electrodiesel trains.
Only slow services northwards and no movement of 'fast' trains from the Weedon route.
The reality is that Coventry doesn't get services on HS2 so its trains need to continue to avoid Northampton from a journey time perspective.
Nothampton will benefit from extra calls at Rugby in fast trains via Weedon, for fast connections northward.
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