NotATrainspott
Established Member
- Joined
- 2 Feb 2013
- Messages
- 3,304
None of what you’ve written changes that tax is about getting money. Any societal stuff is just spin.
The problem is reducing revenue - so as with they did for Road Tax, they up it without regard to logic. They’ll do the same to where we do “fuel” the vehicles from. Far easier.
The usage of the roads, congestion and pollution are just layers that habeen added - it is not why this revenue collection needs to happen.
It doesn’t matter if the tax makes no sense as I illustrated with VAT. Stamp Duty makes it harder and disincentivises moving home yet for decades the Government has had a “get on yer bike” mentality that we seek opportunity.Death duties? Why? What has society or the Govt done to earn taking a portion of wealth given the death costs fall on the estate anyway - the answer now, as ever, is nothing. It’s just a point in time that their assets can be easily assessed and they get away with it because the person doesn’t need it anymore and the inheritors cant complain as they are still getting something.
Your own post illustrates the problem, rural roads would be lower priced. Why? They cost more to maintain and urban road costs can be amortised over so many more users.
Such an argument is impossible to even have for every mile of road.
You've brought up the example of Stamp Duty, which is good. It is 100% true that it is a bad tax, and the amount of revenue it creates is dwarfed by the economic inefficiencies it creates. Charging people money to move from one home to another means more people live in homes which are inappropriate for them - e.g. older people not downsizing, people not moving closer to their work.
What you're asking for is a new road tax system which creates even more of these sorts of nonsense disincentives. However, these disincentives and inefficiencies are exactly the issues which you've just dismissed as 'spin'. Congestion is inefficient. People making unnecessary journeys means slowing down the journeys which are necessary. Pollution is inefficient, because in the end the NHS ends up having to pay for medical treatment for the people who suffer from it while these people are less able to make a living to drive the economy and pay taxes. Road accidents are inefficient since they tie up emergency service resources.
The main difference vs Stamp Duty is that the inefficiencies created are more obvious as negative externalities. Congestion, pollution and accidents are all things which are easy to point out as being bad. People not moving from one house to another just because of Stamp Duty isn't anywhere near as obvious. It's almost a bit odd that you've managed to notice more subtle inefficiencies while completely dismissing the more obvious ones! Is that because Stamp Duty is a separately applied state tax which is inefficient, rather than an indirect LACK of taxation which has a negative impact?
Creating other taxes to replace road taxes can have similar bad-but-somewhat-subtle effects as Stamp Duty. Make the road tax a pure mileage charge and you will make life worse for rural areas. It's not a specific 'Rural Area Tax' but it has the same impact, even if it's not as directly felt. We don't want to tax rural areas unfairly. There's a reason rural areas end up getting subsidies - countries that don't make life easy enough for their rural hinterlands end up becoming city-states instead!
The reason we don't want to tax rural roads as much as urban ones is that rural road journeys tend to be less viable to be made by any other means. We like it when people move around. People moving around is typically a sign that things are going well and people are able to do what they want. Moving around means you've got money to spend and you're able to make money. In cities though, these same benefits of mobility are possible by walking, cycling or taking public transport at far less overall societal cost.
Your suggestion of an invasion of privacy for health (a) isn’t actually happening, (b) is very different than one for revenue replacement. That should be obvious. It also serves to reinforce the libertarian arguments on this thread.
Ref Covid, the blunt reality is that once a load of people have died, and the rest have had it, normal life will resume. Prep for another will merely be medical capacity and training - a wider volunteer system perhaps and many of the ad hoc things that have been done in recent weeks, being formalised in planning, exercises and education.
If you think this will green light bringing in authoritarian surveillance more widely you are naieve at best - the backlash would annihilate anyone proposing it. If anything peoples tolerance will have been exhausted by this and the sense of unfairness if that is exploited would be huge.
If you genuinely believe this, then you haven't been paying attention. I'm quite sorry.
We are currently in the 'Hammer' stage of the pandemic. This is when governments have put in place the most stringest possible measures to reduce the R value (the number of other people infected by one person). The bad stats of infections and deaths are starting to flatten out across the world because 3 weeks ago people stopped infecting one another. If R is now solidly below 1 on average, then the infections will die out, as more people will recover or die from the illness then get infected. China has managed it more-or-less completely. The number of people who are infected and able to transmit will drop down to 10s or 100s across the country.
If we then go straight back to normal, then the R rate will be the same as it was before. We'll end up in a similar position to 3 weeks before the lockdown, as the virus starts to spread again. By the time we've noticed the death rate has picked up and hospitals are starting to suffer again, the only thing that will be possible to stem the pandemic will be another full lockdown.
Going from lockdown to lockdown is not at all possible. We need to reduce R, but without the complete stoppage of everyday life. There are some ways in which this can happen with minimal effect. For instance, it is extremely likely that everyone in public or on public transport will be made to wear a mask. It doesn't need to be a medical-grade mask for it to have a big impact on the R rate, and it doesn't interfere with most aspects of everyday life.
The problem is that we know masks are not enough. People aren't going to wear them permanently, even inside their homes. There will still be many other vectors where people will be able to spread it. R will still be above 1, which means that an epidemic is inevitable. It might take longer to take hold, but it'll still take off with exponential growth.
With a lockdown being unacceptable for months and months and months, both governments and people will demand something else. They want the cheapest possible way to reduce R below 1. Nothing else matters to governments and people. We want to return to bars and restaurants and cinemas and being able to hug our grandparents. We don't want to be afraid of the very real and not at all hypothetical risk that our loved ones, or ourselves, are going to die.
Apple and Google have just released their plans to implement APIs in Android and iOS which will make it easy for public health authorities to build apps which will do some semblance of privacy-safe contact tracing. What contact tracing means is that once we know we have a live infection, it will be possible for us to very easily lock down just the few people who are most likely to have been infected. Since we can do it on a fine-grained individual level, we can jump in with testing and other measures to stop the spread even more than we have today. For instance, it's not practical for everyone in the UK who is self-isolating to get all groceries delivered and not to have a reason to leave the house. Inevitably in households with symptoms people are still interacting with the rest of society in a way which is necessary for their survival but has a major impact on the R rate. With mass app-based contract tracing, we can have as few people as possible locked down, and those who are locked down can have the absolute best attention. Hell, you could even make it that we take them away to a place with a private garden and enough space to isolate so that we don't have the problems of poorer people and those in urban areas being crammed into small spaces for too long.
The second half to this is that testing becomes a matter of public health too. Going up to someone and jamming a swab up their nose would qualify as assault. In normal circumstances, it is acceptable for people to reject medical interventions against them unless we deem them to be incapable of making their own decisions. In a pandemic scenario, we cannot allow some people to reject being tested for coronavirus. It would be rational for people to reject testing - being tested and found positive, even if asympomatic, means their life would be turned upside down for a few weeks. The only way we can make mass testing and contract tracing work is if people have no right to refuse a test. This includes people who have individually done nothing to justify that treatment, as they may have picked it up from someone else through airborne droplets without having endangered themselves first (e.g. went and licked a shopping trolley handle).
The masses are going to demand the imposition of the contract tracing app and mandatory testing with the same zeal that they have demanded the lockdown. I think many libertarian politicians are a bit shocked at how 93% of the population are in favour of restricting their most basic rights according to a YouGov poll. We didn't impose the lockdown early enough because the government thought the population would reject it.