Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?

[squizzler]

Like many things which have come about recently It think it will be found not resilient in the uncertain world we find ourselves. It worked well enough in a rising market where there will always be more business tomorrow and financial backers wanted a part of that. In a falling market the externalities such as pensions for their staff, a fleet that is sized to meet demand that is passed will start to catch up and they will no longer be low cost anymore.

The mail order business 'Amazon' will be another wheeze that I think will rapidly unravel in the crisis due to lack of resilience. Once the dreaded lurgy gets into the warehouses they will be knocked out, as will their suppliers and delivery people. The traditional supply chain, with caches of product along the line, has much more resilience. Of course this is a long way from the thread topic!

 

[Meerkat]

Like many things which have come about recently It think it will be found not resilient in the uncertain world we find ourselves. It worked well enough in a rising market where there will always be more business tomorrow and financial backers wanted a part of that. In a falling market the externalities such as pensions for their staff, a fleet that is sized to meet demand that is passed will start to catch up and they will no longer be low cost anymore.

The mail order business 'Amazon' will be another wheeze that I think will rapidly unravel in the crisis due to lack of resilience. Once the dreaded lurgy gets into the warehouses they will be knocked out, as will their suppliers and delivery people. The traditional supply chain, with caches of product along the line, has much more resilience.

EasyJet and Ryanair survived 9/11 - they have a very flexible model that will make money. If they ran out of cash someone would pre pack it, bin off a load of leases and carry on the model at a suitable scale. They are cheap because they have low costs - if any airlines survive it will be them.
Amazon will b even bigger after this. They can scale up and down using cheap contract labour whilst the High Street dies on its fixed costs. Lots of isolated people are going to get used to online shopping - millions of older folk who have resisted before will be forced to try it and find it is really good for them.

 

[duffield]

...
Needed more Paracetamol and spent about four hours in and around Croydon with none found. So if i do see some I will be very tempted to empty the shelf !.

Unlikely to be allowed, most places are rationing it (e.g. 1 or 2 packets per customer).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Unlikely to be allowed, most places are rationing it (e.g. 1 or 2 packets per customer).

You're only allowed to buy 2 packs in normal times, it's an anti-suicide measure.

 

[Peregrine 4903]

Do people really think train services are not going to be restored to their normal service level and tube stations that handle millions of passengers a year are going to remain closed after all of this?

I seriously doubt any of that will happen. I fully expect that all train services and closed stations will be returned to normal or re-opened when this is all done.

Whether the train operating companies and the rail franchising model in general survives this is a different story. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.

 

[JonathanH]

Sadiq Khan has expressed a view that it is 'inevitable' that Crossrail will be further delayed

https://www.expressandstar.com/news...rossrail-project-from-coronavirus-inevitable/

Sadiq Khan: Impact on Crossrail project from coronavirus ‘inevitable’
UK News | Published: 1 hour ago

The railway – which will run between Berkshire and Essex via central London – was due to open in December 2018.

Crossrail could be further delayed due to the coronavirus, Sadiq Khan has indicated.

The London Mayor said it is “inevitable” that the troubled project – already behind schedule and over budget – will be affected by the outbreak.

He was asked by Caroline Pigeon, deputy chairwoman of the London Assembly’s Transport Committee, if the virus could close down some construction sites and push the rail scheme’s start date back even further.

Mr Khan replied: “If I’m saying only essential workers should go to work, if I’m saying the best way to reduce the spread of the virus is to stay at home unless you have to work, that is an impact.

“The Crossrail team will do what they can to work remotely where they can but some of the things you need to be physically there to do.

“So I think it’s inevitable.”

He added that Crossrail Ltd chief executive Mark Wild told him on Monday that the project was still running to the latest schedule, which involved it opening in summer 2021.

But the mayor acknowledged that “things have changed” since then.

The railway – which will run between Berkshire and Essex via central London – was due to open in December 2018, and its budget was set at £15.9 billion in 2007.

But it has been hit by a series of delays and cost increases, meaning it is at least two-and-a-half years behind schedule and has an estimated bill of £18.25 billion.

If some of the prophesies in this thread are true (or indeed the Coronavirus issue goes on for 12-18 months) it will be some time before it is now needed in any case.

 

[Meerkat]

“The Crossrail team will do what they can to work remotely where they can but some of the things you need to be physically there to do”
No kidding!

 

[Backroom_boy]

Do people really think train services are not going to be restored to their normal service level and tube stations that handle millions of passengers a year are going to remain closed after all of this?

I seriously doubt any of that will happen. I fully expect that all train services and closed stations will be returned to normal or re-opened when this is all done.

Whether the train operating companies and the rail franchising model in general survives this is a different story. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.

Services will resume but some of the nice to have things might not and probably we dont know what that covers yet.

My guess also would be a push to be able to run services completely staff isolating from passengers if needs be. So food sales, ticket sales, ticket inspections, gateline supervision, cleaning regimes might all change

 

[Peter Sarf]

You're only allowed to buy 2 packs in normal times, it's an anti-suicide measure.

It is nearly always three packets of 16. Poundshop sell three packets for er £1.

Unlikely to be allowed, most places are rationing it (e.g. 1 or 2 packets per customer).

Today I had a miracle and got 12 packets of 16 . I actually could not get less .

Do people really think train services are not going to be restored to their normal service level and tube stations that handle millions of passengers a year are going to remain closed after all of this?

I seriously doubt any of that will happen. I fully expect that all train services and closed stations will be returned to normal or re-opened when this is all done.

Whether the train operating companies and the rail franchising model in general survives this is a different story. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.

I expect more people will work from home after Coronavirus has receded. It was the way things were heading and any inertia from employees or employers is being blasted away by necessity. It could possibly be viewed as hard to return to 'normal'.

 

[Bald Rick]

I expect more people will work from home after Coronavirus has receded. It was the way things were heading and any inertia from employees or employers is being blasted away by necessity. It could possibly be viewed as hard to return to 'normal'.

People I’m speaking to are vowing not to work at home ever again unless there is no option; not even a week of it and they’re stir crazy! I must admit I’m the same. The thought of weeks and months of teleconferences / web calls etc from the kitchen table is quite distressing.

 

[Peter Sarf]

People I’m speaking to are vowing not to work at home ever again unless there is no option; not even a week of it and they’re stir crazy! I must admit I’m the same. The thought of weeks and months of teleconferences / web calls etc from the kitchen table is quite distressing.

It is true that one of the features of work is social interaction. Some people prefer to go without social interaction but not me.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is true that one of the features of work is social interaction. Some people prefer to go without social interaction but not me.

That is one thing I miss when working from home. Two days a week in the office I reckon would work perfectly for me. Or three at a push. Even where people do that, though, that (if they rotate the days) is a substantial cut on transport demand.

One thing that is an absolute essential to me is a "daily standup" teleconference. I suspect some people (staff and managers) new to WFH are still working out this kind of thing.

 

[Bald Rick]

One thing that is an absolute essential to me is a "daily standup" teleconference. I suspect some people (staff and managers) new to WFH are still working out this kind of thing.

I’m doing those, but sitting down. Might try it lying down tomorrow.

 

[JamesT]

I’m doing those, but sitting down. Might try it lying down tomorrow.

(Probably teaching granny to suck eggs) The idea behind the “stand-up” meeting is the discomfort of having to stand up forces the meeting to be short and focused on the important items. Something that should be encouraged in all meetings, however you position your body.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’m doing those, but sitting down. Might try it lying down tomorrow.

We jokingly used to call them "non-Scrum sit-downs" on a previous project that was being done waterfall and they were happening in a meeting room

 

[trebor79]

People I’m speaking to are vowing not to work at home ever again unless there is no option; not even a week of it and they’re stir crazy! I must admit I’m the same. The thought of weeks and months of teleconferences / web calls etc from the kitchen table is quite distressing.

I've been home working for a year now (though with relatively frequent UK travel). Ironically, before all this blew up I was seriously thinking about looking for a different job as I missed the social interaction, support and camaraderie of being in an office. It is much more difficult to throw ideas around, for example, as it's a phone call which means you are inevitably disturbing whatever the other person is doing, people can't over hear and chip in etc.
I think there will be some permanent suppression of demand but homeworking isn't ideal for lots of people or businesses and I think as a species we are quite sociable animals and don't want to be cooped up in our own bubble all day.

I'm more concerned that when people do start commuting again, the demand will be for more car journeys, leading to permanent cuts in rail services and more roads built to accommodate the demand. Once the pandemic has passed (which it will at some point), there will be a lot of people who will be very reluctant to use public transport out of fear of "catching something".

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm more concerned that when people do start commuting again, the demand will be for more car journeys, leading to permanent cuts in rail services and more roads built to accommodate the demand. Once the pandemic has passed (which it will at some point), there will be a lot of people who will be very reluctant to use public transport out of fear of "catching something".

That's an interesting point, this will create a nation of germphobes in people who don't quite get that it's special circumstances.

Notably the present (well, 2 weeks ago) London cycling boom kicked off due to people being scared of getting blown up on the Tube.

 

[telstarbox]

I thought it was more off the back of the 2012 Olympics, plus the building of the first Cycle Superhighways?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I thought it was more off the back of the 2012 Olympics, plus the building of the first Cycle Superhighways?

That as well, but there was a huge jump after the last set of bombings.

 

[squizzler]

I'm more concerned that when people do start commuting again, the demand will be for more car journeys, leading to permanent cuts in rail services and more roads built to accommodate the demand. Once the pandemic has passed (which it will at some point), there will be a lot of people who will be very reluctant to use public transport out of fear of "catching something".

I really don't think you need worry on that regard. There are bound be those who become germaphobic, but in most cases I imagine they will not change their habits to the extend of no longer travelling. What I do think you will see is that the pattern of public transport use becomes more evenly distributed. Fewer peak hour trips into and out of the cities, more usage of regional rail.

I think it will be harder to recreate the motor trade than to get the trains back into service. With our future as an EU nation in question, it was already 'facing headwinds', as the jargon goes, and it is a lot harder to reopen factories and recreate supply chains once they are lost. I'd wager that the rebalancing of travel away from motoring can only continue to gain momentum.

 

[PeterC]

It is true that one of the features of work is social interaction. Some people prefer to go without social interaction but not me.

Before I retired I had the occasional spell of homeworking. I would normally go and have a sandwich in the pub for lunch just to get out of the house.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Before I retired I had the occasional spell of homeworking. I would normally go and have a sandwich in the pub for lunch just to get out of the house.

I am a near-100% homeworker and (prior to this) did exactly that quite often, often also afternoons working in Costalottabucks etc.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm more concerned that when people do start commuting again, the demand will be for more car journeys, leading to permanent cuts in rail services and more roads built to accommodate the demand. Once the pandemic has passed (which it will at some point), there will be a lot of people who will be very reluctant to use public transport out of fear of "catching something".

I agree with @squizzler - don’t worry about this. I read a report of some research recently (not the research itself) that suggested that the British were the least concerned about this virus when compared to other countries, and I think a lot were asked. That has good and bad sides to it of course.

However given that a very significant proportion of rail travel in this country is to, from or between our major city centres, there is no real prospect of significant road capacity being provided there. Depending how long this goes on for, there will of course be a demand suppression for some time afterwards because of the economic effects rather than a sudden desire to work from home or start driving. Indeed as I said elsewhere after half a week working from home I’m already crawling up the walls (even with walks to the shop / park etc), and I suspect there’s a great manlike me who can’t wait to get back to their normal place(s) of work.

When this does finish Government, and the population, will want to get back to normal very quickly. Is there anyone reading this who, when the restrictions are lifted, won’t want to go for a trip out somewhere almost immediately, and/or book a holiday? And then go back to work straight away (assuming they still have a job, that is)?

 

[Bevan Price]

Now that the weather is trying to improve, and days are getting longer, I would love to be able to get some rover / day ranger tickets. But, I suspect it could be at least 12 - 18 months before I feel safe to do that (assuming the virus does not "get me") -- until a reliable vaccine becomes widely available. There will also be a big drop in leisure trips by rail - with shops, theatres, museums & other attractions likely to be shut for a long time.

 

[AndrewE]

Now that the weather is trying to improve, and days are getting longer, I would love to be able to get some rover / day ranger tickets. But, I suspect it could be at least 12 - 18 months before I feel safe to do that (assuming the virus does not "get me") -- until a reliable vaccine becomes widely available. There will also be a big drop in leisure trips by rail - with shops, theatres, museums & other attractions likely to be shut for a long time.

I am dealing with these urges by working in my garden and shall go for bike rides...
If you actually get the virus and recover (which most of us will) then once you are no longer infectious shouldn't you be able to go about doing whatever you want? I would have thought that better testing will be able to give us certificates that show we have had it and are not a risk to ourselves or others.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am dealing with these urges by working in my garden and shall go for bike rides...
If you actually get the virus and recover (which most of us will) then once you are no longer infectious shouldn't you be able to go about doing whatever you want? I would have thought that better testing will be able to give us certificates that show we have had it and are not a risk to ourselves or others.

That assumes you can't be reinfected. That isn't 100% yet.

The antibody test (whcih will tell you if you've had it) is going to be along within a few weeks though obviously priority will be to NHS staff first.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

I disagree.
Yes, rail is by far the "best" way to shift thousands (hundreds of thousands) of commuters with the least congestion and pollution, but if you just look at the bottom line it is a disaster.
For a cost effective railway you need to lose all the trains that only run in the peak hours and focus on long distance trains that are well-loaded from morning to night with an even staffing requirement through the day.
People need to get away from the idea that a crush-loaded peak service is a profitable one.

Well, less peak hour traffic may or may not have a beneficial effect on the railways' bottom line, but the fact remains that the two natural markets for rail are city commuting and inter city business travel where rail either has a near-monopoly or a strong competitive advantage. Both of those could suffer if working from home and virtual meetings become more widespread and I doubt that there will be a corresponding increase in leisure travel by rail. How many families go for a day at the seaside by train? Very few, I'd venture. If people were not using rail for leisure travel much previously, why would that change in future just because there is less commuter and business travel? The net end result will be a permanent fall in total passenger numbers.

 

[squizzler]

How many families go for a day at the seaside by train? Very few, I'd venture. If people were not using rail for leisure travel much previously, why would that change in future just because there is less commuter and business travel? The net end result will be a permanent fall in total passenger numbers.

The trend, as I recall, is that the big growth is happening on the regional railways as the South East commuter market in particular is saturated.
The doom mongers (as far as rail is concerned) also choose to ignore 'post-modern' types of motoring: car share schemes, ride sharing, short-ranged electric cars and the rest. These were already emerging trends that favour rail for long distance travel, and with whole sectors of the economy including the motor trade having to undergo what electrical engineers might term a 'black start', we can expect the more savvy firms to take the opportunity to bury their legacy operations

 

[AndrewE]

That assumes you can't be reinfected. That isn't 100% yet.

Well it seemed like a good idea at the time.

The antibody test (whcih will tell you if you've had it) is going to be along within a few weeks though obviously priority will be to NHS staff first.

Good, plus care home staff of course.

Well, less peak hour traffic may or may not have a beneficial effect on the railways' bottom line, but the fact remains that the two natural markets for rail are city commuting and inter city business travel where rail either has a near-monopoly or a strong competitive advantage. Both of those could suffer if working from home and virtual meetings become more widespread and I doubt that there will be a corresponding increase in leisure travel by rail.

That may well be the case.

How many families go for a day at the seaside by train? Very few, I'd venture. If people were not using rail for leisure travel much previously, why would that change in future just because there is less commuter and business travel? The net end result will be a permanent fall in total passenger numbers.

I would say the day-trip market is a good one to promote as there isn't the complication of a week's luggage. Maybe not because there is less business travel, but if car ownership gets more difficult and relatively more expensive, (and especially if flight-shaming expands to include motoring-shaming, especially where there is a perfectly good rail alternative) we might see the modal shift away from driving.

 

[Shimbleshanks]

Well it seemed like a good idea at the time. Good, plus care home staff of course.
That may well be the case.I would say the day-trip market is a good one to promote as there isn't the complication of a week's luggage. Maybe not because there is less business travel, but if car ownership gets more difficult and relatively more expensive, (and especially if flight-shaming expands to include motoring-shaming, especially where there is a perfectly good rail alternative) we might see the modal shift away from driving.

Does flight-shaming really have much impact and would motor-shaming if it ever came about? It's one of those things that probably gets discussed at Hampstead dinner-parties while the rest of the world carries on regardless.
The price and convenience advantage of flights at the moment is so overwhelming that it would take such a massive hike in air fares and a similar decrease in train and ferry fares that no amount of angry 16-year-old Scandinavians with pigtails would make me change. I do two business trips a year to Ireland - return flight from London to Ireland generally costs less than the train fare to Holyhead, even with a senior railcard. I also go to Malta once a year; what I pay for the flights usually probably wouldn't get me into France on the train; in fact, the cost and time difference is so great that the train and ferry companies would have to pay me about £300 to use their services to make it worthwhile.
It's the same with car trips; for the three people in my household to go from South London to Brighton on the train would cost about £55, even with my senior railcard. Petrol cost? Less than a tenner in my car, perhaps at another tenner for wear and tear, parking etc.