Coronavirus.

[Mogster]

The people clamouring for schools to close are missing several very important points.

Yes. I suspect most of them are actually 12...

 

[bramling]

Yes. I suspect most of them are actually 12...

Reality is if staff start getting the virus then some schools may *have* to close.

Would it be viable to keep them open simply as a holding facility? Would parents be happy with that situation? (Genuine questions, I don’t know the answers).

As I write this I’m hearing that staff are dropping like flies at a railway location I know well, with numerous staff now phoning in to say they’re self isolating.

 

[Mogster]

Reality is if staff start getting the virus then some schools may *have* to close.

Would it be viable to keep them open simply as a holding facility? Would parents be happy with that situation? (Genuine questions, I don’t know the answers).

As I write this I’m hearing that staff are dropping like flies at a railway location I know well, with numerous staff now phoning in to say they’re self isolating.

I thought there were already arrangements being made for double class sizes and such. In this situation I think utilising the school facilities as child care only would be acceptable. There will be situations were the school has to close. I think the schools have an important part to play in keeping the country functioning for now.

 

[Athelstan]

At last a proper numerical analysis from Prof. Ferguson and his team at Imperial College:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Complicated, but essentially settles the argument between the mitigation option and the suppression option. Supression wins but can it be sustained for long enough ? May be 12 to 18 months before we get a vaccine actually out there in the field.

There is a very serious hard constraint which is the number of ventilators / ICU beds we have. Beats me why the government wasn't on to this in late January.

Essentially if we do nothing, we will have 500,000 extra deaths in the next few months, but there is a lot we can do.

 

[Jimstar]

I imagine now we move to a full KRS or Sunday timetable industry wide? Reduces costs and ultimately protects rail jobs as well. Though I think they're already some of the safest you can have...

 

[Karl]

KRS..?

 

[yorkie]

I imagine now we move to a full KRS or Sunday timetable industry wide? Reduces costs and ultimately protects rail jobs as well. Though I think they're already some of the safest you can have...

Can you edit this post to include a definition of what "KRS" stands for please? Thanks

 

[Mogster]

KRS. Key Route Strategy possibly?

 

[Mogster]

Unfortunately this does demonstrate the value in having savings to fall back on in a time of crisis.

For many years little or no emphasis has been placed on encouraging or assisting people to save.

Agree completely. Very few people seem to have savings now. With the lack of real incentives from successive governments It almost seems to be discouraged.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Unfortunately this does demonstrate the value in having savings to fall back on in a time of crisis.
For many years little or no emphasis has been placed on encouraging or assisting people to save.

Agree completely. Very few people seem to have savings now. With the lack of real incentives from successive governments It almost seems to be discouraged.

Sadly it is very much a generational thing, many younger people are just not in a position where setting up a savings account is an option. Especially young families who live pay check to pay check it's impossible, i have no doubt that these sorts of people who have no relatives to rely on are going to be the ones hit hardest by all of this short term.

 

[The Ham]

There's been some good points about schools, another point which is worth starting is that too stop the spread it's better to choose offices as they have people from all over whilst (other than staff) they mostly serve the location that they are in.

Whilst there's going to have to be changes to the way schools run to further reduce cross infection these might be fairly easy to do.

Things like staggered start/end times (probably based on surname) to limit numbers of parents at the school gates. One way this could work would be to have it that children could enter classrooms at the start of the day with a simple to set task for them to get on with whilst they await the whole class to be in. The end of the day is more complex to overcome, but if parents were given a 10 minute window to aim for with a 5 minute gap between windows and 2 or 3 windows (maybe more depending on the size of school), then that would reduce the amount of parents at any one time, which would allow them to spread out more. If parents are running late you may have a few children waiting a long time, but a call to the school should allow the child to be kept in class until a later slot if needed.

Children being picked up by childminders wound all be released at the same time, maybe in one of the otherwise 5 minute gaps.

 

[underbank]

Agree completely. Very few people seem to have savings now. With the lack of real incentives from successive governments It almost seems to be discouraged.

Just wait for negative interest rates.

 

[Ianno87]

Unfortunately this does demonstrate the value in having savings to fall back on in a time of crisis.

For many years little or no emphasis has been placed on encouraging or assisting people to save.

Unfortnately, even modest savings get burned through very quickly when suddenly it's got to cover additional expenses for multiple family members unexpectedly.

Agree completely. Very few people seem to have savings now. With the lack of real incentives from successive governments It almost seems to be discouraged.

With things like home ownership, its so far out of reach for most (due to high house prices and high rents until then), saving is pretty much futile for many - the money might as well be spent on something else to actually see some benefit/enjoyment from it.

 

[Senex]

Unfortunately this does demonstrate the value in having savings to fall back on in a time of crisis.

For many years little or no emphasis has been placed on encouraging or assisting people to save.

Quite the contrary, in fact — on the one hand rates of interest so low that your money actually loses value, and on the other a general stress on a "spend, spend, spend" culture.

 

[edwin_m]

One thing I'd like to see now is some kind of effort to re-deploy people who have little to do onto jobs that need doing. For example airline cabin crew have some first aid training and usefully be able to help out in hospitals, and pub and restaurant staff could provide extra assistance in supermarkets. This isn't going to make a big dent in the unemployment figures but considering the government's going to be paying benefit to all these people before long they might as well make use of anyone they can.

 

[nlogax]

Unfortunately this does demonstrate the value in having savings to fall back on in a time of crisis.

For many years little or no emphasis has been placed on encouraging or assisting people to save.

Yes, but people's ability to save has deteriorated over the last few years. It appears there's little to no wiggle room in modern budgets, especially for those between 18 and 30ish.

I'm lucky enough not to worry about the here and now, but I'm hugely concerned for the economy after this initial pandemic reaction ends. The resulting fall-out will be gigantic. My savings sit untouched for now but it pays to be prepared for that point. This is 2008 all over again.

 

[Mathew S]

I think some people don't have the slightest idea of the impact of what goes on inside schools.

For example, has anyone ever had someone say to them "this is where my Dad lives... not that he has ever done anything for me?" and whose only male role models are school staff?

Or someone who was born a girl but wants to be a boy say that they can't have their wish for their chosen name to be on the registers because their Mum doesn't agree to it? But that when teachers call them by their chosen name, that makes them smile.

Or have you met kids who are unable to ever see their father again because their father has done something so bad that not even school staff know what he has done and who went from being a good kid to getting into loads of trouble and has a feeling of hopelessness but is being helped and encouraged to get back to normality by the school?

What about special needs kids whose parents would not be able to cope if they were with them 24/7?

What about kids who tell you they have no friends outside school and no siblings and don't want the summer holidays to start?

I've got experience of working in the NHS, education and the private sector. The pay can be far higher in the public sector, with the NHS somewhere in the middle, and the pay in education is pretty dire. But the difference staff who work in education can make is far greater than most people realise.

If anyone is any doubt, then I would urge you to read/listen to Richard McCann's story ( https://www.richardmccann.co.uk/ )

If schools close completely or for vulnerable/needy students then I would struggle to believe it could possibly be the correct decision (and if anyone disagrees with me, I'd be happy to have the full argument, not just the 5 minute argument)

Well said Yorkie.

At last a proper numerical analysis from Prof. Ferguson and his team at Imperial College:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Complicated, but essentially settles the argument between the mitigation option and the suppression option. Supression wins but can it be sustained for long enough ? May be 12 to 18 months before we get a vaccine actually out there in the field.

There is a very serious hard constraint which is the number of ventilators / ICU beds we have. Beats me why the government wasn't on to this in late January.

Essentially if we do nothing, we will have 500,000 extra deaths in the next few months, but there is a lot we can do.

The government weren't on it in January because, at that point, the modelling looked very, very different. The MRC report (that you've linked to) makes the point that even up until this weekend, all the forecasts showed that mitigation would be an effective strategy. The problem with suppression is the lack of an 'end game'. We run the risk of it being a choice between deaths now, or deaths later in equal numbers. I think a lot of people have still to realise quite how serious this situation may be.

Agree completely. Very few people seem to have savings now. With the lack of real incentives from successive governments It almost seems to be discouraged.

I, and many others around my age and younger (I'm 35), simply don't earn enough to have meaningful savings. It's not a lack of incentives - I would love to be able to save - but the simple fact that pay in this country is so shockingly low, and job security non-existant, that putting a tangible amount of money away each month is impossible. I earn, give or take, the same amount today as I did 6 years ago. I love my job, and I love where I live, but I would be far, far better off living and working in almost any other European country... if I was still allowed to.

 

[miami]

Yes, but people's ability to save has deteriorated over the last few years. It appears there's little to no wiggle room in modern budgets, especially for those between 18 and 30ish.

And of course these are the people with the highest outgoings (especially rent)

Over 70s typically have very little outgoing, and a fixed income from a pension every week. The wealthy ones who were in their 50s in the late 90s/early 00s and own buy-to-lets will also be getting rental income.

Under 40s may be able to avoid commuting charges, but that £1500 a month rent for a 3 bed semi in Barnet is still going to drain any savings (hah) very quickly.

 

[Meerkat]

I, and many others around my age and younger (I'm 35) simple don't earn enough to have meaningful savings. It's not a lack of incentives - I would love to be able to save - but the simple fact that pay in this country is so shockingly low, and job security non-existant, that putting a tangible amount of money away each month is impossible

I accept that is true for many, but pessimistic frugal savers like myself also see loads of young folk borrowing money for cars, holidays, clothes, and tech they don’t need, and spanking money on going out and takeaway coffee. They don’t even attempt to balance the books, let alone save. And a lack of job security is even more reason they should be living within their means at the very least, if not well below their means to make sure they have a buffer.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Some good news: China has closed its last temporary hospital in Wuhan as infections drop to 11. If we follow the same path, we could be looking at a 12-week peak.

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-video-doctors-nurses-hospital-a9402631.html

Hospital staff in the Chinese city where the coronavirus originated removed their masks ceremoniously as the country’s last emergency hospital, built to handle the crisis, was closed.


In a video that has been viewed millions of times online, workers remove their masks one by one as the camera passes them, to mark the moment.

 

[nlogax]

Some good news: China has closed its last temporary hospital in Wuhan as infections drop to 11. If we follow the same path, we could be looking at a 12-week peak.

So far we're definitely not following the same path..

 

[miami]

and spanking money on going out and takeaway coffee

Oh not this crap again

"Frugal" people like you bought a house when it was 3 times one earners wage, it's now 8. If back in 2000 I had started saving £5 per work day, I would only now have enough for a 5% deposit on a house in London.

Your generation spanked money on going out and cigarettes.

 

[bramling]

Just wait for negative interest rates.

I think that would provoke a major backlash. There’s also the likelihood that people would move to stocks and shares, which is simply introducing a risk.

 

[miami]

Negative interest rates apply to banks, not customers. It means the banks have to lend the money out rather than lodging it with the central bank.

 

[Antman]

It's also worth remembering that sitting in doors all day everyday is a very bad lifestyle particularly for the elderly, lack of exercise, depression and the possible onset of dementia. In the long term there is likely to be a considerable increase in mental health problems because of this virus, it's hard to see any light at the end of this very dark tunnel.

 

[Gmac]

The coronavirus issue for me is how to isolate an 80 year old with Alzheimers as well as asthma. So far its get stuffed I need to go out. I guess many over 70s will have the same attitude. So how do the government police this, is it time to change from advice to mandatory rules

 

[DerekC]

At last a proper numerical analysis from Prof. Ferguson and his team at Imperial College:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Complicated, but essentially settles the argument between the mitigation option and the suppression option. Supression wins but can it be sustained for long enough ? May be 12 to 18 months before we get a vaccine actually out there in the field.

There is a very serious hard constraint which is the number of ventilators / ICU beds we have. Beats me why the government wasn't on to this in late January.

Essentially if we do nothing, we will have 500,000 extra deaths in the next few months, but there is a lot we can do.

This is highly recommended reading. It needs a bit of effort, but well worth it! Thanks for posting.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's also worth remembering that sitting in doors all day everyday is a very bad lifestyle particularly for the elderly, lack of exercise, depression and the possible onset of dementia. In the long term there is likely to be a considerable increase in mental health problems because of this virus, it's hard to see any light at the end of this very dark tunnel.

This is why the Government has said that even if you're self isolating due to family having it (except if you have it) you can still go out for a walk provided you stay away from others. Walking is going to be a very important thing over the coming months.

Going out for a short walk or run alone is a specific exemption to even the current strict French lockdown.

 

[DerekC]

It's also worth remembering that sitting in doors all day everyday is a very bad lifestyle particularly for the elderly, lack of exercise, depression and the possible onset of dementia. In the long term there is likely to be a considerable increase in mental health problems because of this virus, it's hard to see any light at the end of this very dark tunnel.

I think common sense applies. As an over-70 I am going to keep walking and maybe even paint our bedroom, which I have been promising to do for the past 5 years! Keep busy!!

 

[Mathew S]

Some good news: China has closed its last temporary hospital in Wuhan as infections drop to 11. If we follow the same path, we could be looking at a 12-week peak.

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...s-video-doctors-nurses-hospital-a9402631.html

Even if the peak lasts 12 weeks, the problem remains of what then? Because as soon as you release the social distancing measures and people start mixing again, the virus starts spreading again, and you get another peak. And that process repeats over, and over, and over, and over until you build up some level of community immunity whether that's naturally as more and more people are infected, or by way of a vaccine.

This is going to take much, much longer than 12 weeks to come to any kind of conclusion. Much longer.