Could we see a Birmingham-Derby service via HS2 and Toton ?

[WAO]

Moderator note: split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/mml-electrification.110445

Is there any real movement on the Leicester scheme?

The NR 2017 Enhancements document stated:

"Scope of works
• Currently the project is in the process of closing out GRIP Stage 2. The remit is to provide capacity to meet growth forecasts to 2023 and to build towards 2033 and 2043 forecast levels.
• Given changes to the delivery timescale for capacity enhancement works on other key routes, notably the F2N corridor a limited refresh of GRIP 2 will be undertaken in early 2016 against revised traffic forecasts to ensure the proposed outputs in CP6 remain aligned with forecast demand.
• Currently it is assumed the works will deliver grade separation at Wigston, up and down slow lines between Leicester and Wigston, a new slow line
platform at Leicester and up and down slow lines between Humberstone Road and Syston to aid improved capacity/train regulation in the Syston area."

I couldn't see anything in the latest CP6 GRIP list but it's mentioned obliquely in the Midlands Hub proposal which the Chancellor today endorsed. This report includes "necessary electrification - £600M"
described strangely as "North of Market Harborough and West of Nottingham", as part of a Bedford - Leeds route using HS2b from Toton (aka East Midlands Hub or Nottingham and Derby Parkway!) It also wants a fast HS2b routed service from B'ham to Derby/Nottingham with its own junction plan. £600M would buy about 93 miles of route at £2m/stkm.

It also compares Coventry- Leicester (99% car/1% rail) to Manchester Sheffield (50% car/ 50% rail) overlooking the difference between the M69 and the A57 Snake Pass!

There will be more for rail in other areas but we can now be reasonably hopeful the wires will reach Nottingham and Derby.

1.5 cheers,

WAO

 

[edwin_m]

It also wants a fast HS2b routed service from B'ham to Derby/Nottingham with its own junction plan.

A Birmingham-Derby service via HS2 and Toton is pointless and a waste of a high speed path. Birmingham to Toton will be 23min, Toton to Derby maybe 10min plus reversal time, but it's only about 35min to Derby via the existing route. It would link Derby to Toton but that could just be done a shuttle that can use a cheaper non-HS2 train and be timed to connect with longer-distance HS2 services.

As far as I know Midlands Connect are only calling for Birmingham-Nottingham, where the journey via Toton would be somewhere around 40min compared with over an hour currently. It follows that there is very little reason to expect this proposal to lead to electrification from Trent to Derby.

 

[WAO]

Agreed. But with decision making largely devolved to local politicians and businesses, I expect the Derby lobby to win its c8 miles worth of wires easily, however it's used!

WAO

 

[The Ham]

A Birmingham-Derby service via HS2 and Toton is pointless and a waste of a high speed path. Birmingham to Toton will be 23min, Toton to Derby maybe 10min plus reversal time, but it's only about 35min to Derby via the existing route. It would link Derby to Toton but that could just be done a shuttle that can use a cheaper non-HS2 train and be timed to connect with longer-distance HS2 services.

As far as I know Midlands Connect are only calling for Birmingham-Nottingham, where the journey via Toton would be somewhere around 40min compared with over an hour currently. It follows that there is very little reason to expect this proposal to lead to electrification from Trent to Derby.

It depends, whilst it may not be any quicker it could be that such a service is timed to fill in a gap.

For instance of you have trains which take 35 minutes which get you somewhere for (say) 12:00 or 12:30 and a service which takes 40 minutes which gets you there at 12:20 (having left half way between the two other services at the origin station) then people aren't going to wait 15 minutes to get a faster service which still gets them there 10 minutes later.

In doing so it increases capacity on the line, especially if you have a train which has ~500 seats which is likely to mean that there's more scope to offer cheaper tickets than there would be on the existing services.

Finally it may not require all of one path in that it might be possible to split/join at Toton with the other half of the train going elsewhere. That could also make the reversal quicker as the driver wouldn't need to walk the 200m to get to the correct cab.

 

[edwin_m]

It depends, whilst it may not be any quicker it could be that such a service is timed to fill in a gap.

For instance of you have trains which take 35 minutes which get you somewhere for (say) 12:00 or 12:30 and a service which takes 40 minutes which gets you there at 12:20 (having left half way between the two other services at the origin station) then people aren't going to wait 15 minutes to get a faster service which still gets them there 10 minutes later.

In doing so it increases capacity on the line, especially if you have a train which has ~500 seats which is likely to mean that there's more scope to offer cheaper tickets than there would be on the existing services.

Finally it may not require all of one path in that it might be possible to split/join at Toton with the other half of the train going elsewhere. That could also make the reversal quicker as the driver wouldn't need to walk the 200m to get to the correct cab.

There are already 4TPH between Birmingham and Derby so an extra one isn't going to save many minutes. Existing trains are fairly short and lengthening them is a far easier means of increasing capacity. Split/join at Toton would probably make a Derby journey slower than existing ones.

Although the HS2 service plans leave capacity available on some parts of the infrastructure, that doesn't mean that every section can be packed up with regional trains to achieve 18TPH or whatever as planned for London-Birmingham. There are factors such as the speed difference between HS2 and (possibly) 225km/h Javelin-like regional trains, and the need to timetable a range of diverse origins and destinations so they all fit together, which mean that the sections further north will never be as heavily used.

 

[The Ham]

There are already 4TPH between Birmingham and Derby so an extra one isn't going to save many minutes. Existing trains are fairly short and lengthening them is a far easier means of increasing capacity. Split/join at Toton would probably make a Derby journey slower than existing ones.

Although the HS2 service plans leave capacity available on some parts of the infrastructure, that doesn't mean that every section can be packed up with regional trains to achieve 18TPH or whatever as planned for London-Birmingham. There are factors such as the speed difference between HS2 and (possibly) 225km/h Javelin-like regional trains, and the need to timetable a range of diverse origins and destinations so they all fit together, which mean that the sections further north will never be as heavily used.

Whilst there would be other ways to increase capacity, and I'd suggest that the XC services need increasing in capacity ASAP, what happens once that capacity is provided and there's still more demand?

Also whilst 2tph are 35 minutes the other 2tph are 45 minutes.

 

[edwin_m]

Also whilst 2tph are 35 minutes the other 2tph are 45 minutes.

The plan to run extra trains from Tamworth into Snow Hill will reduce crowding on those two trains and possibly allow them to be speeded up by removing some stops. And HS2 will remove longer-distance passengers from the other pair of trains, creating more capacity for Birmingham-Derby. Running that route via HS2 is really a solution in need of a problem.