It’s not for the airport per se (although that is part of it) but as a South Manchester / NE Cheshire parkway. Much like Birmingham International is for the whole east side of Birmingham, and down into Warks and well into Worcs. I’d guess that the proportion of people using Birmingham International who are heading for the airport is less than 20%.
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Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)
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It’s not for the airport per se (although that is part of it) but as a South Manchester / NE Cheshire parkway. Much like Birmingham International is for the whole east side of Birmingham, and down into Warks and well into Worcs. I’d guess that the proportion of people using Birmingham International who are heading for the airport is less than 20%.
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It isn't really very close to the Airport either (which also means it isn't very close to any onward public transport). What demand will look like for a Parkway/Airport station if it opens in 20 years time is questionable - both air and car travel need to shrink rapidly if we're going to get anywhere near carbon zero.
Grumpy Git
On Moderation
Exactly, typical British (i.e.poor) compromise.
The timescale is also beyond a joke.
I read the cost estimate of £100B+ is more than 10x the cost of the most recent French high speed line per km, not sure how accurate that is though.
There's several reasons
- the French line won't include rolling stock costs
- it's unlikely to include many stations and any which it does include are highly unlikely to be within city centres, as an example just not including Curzon Street station would cut about £1.5 million/mile from the cost
- land costs in the UK are higher than France
- the UK is not densely populated and so there's likely to be more bridges needed (each costing at least £2 million each, which if there's an average of 1 per mile here vs 1 every other mile there that's another £1 million per mile lower)
Even the very first French LGV line, Paris-Lyon, was 10 years from idea to start of construction (which then took about 6 years). Here, we're building far more kilometres in one go than the French were.
Also it should be noted that the expected passenger numbers for HS2 are likely to be the same as the whole of the TGV network.
As such HS2 will be much more heavily used.
The south side is within walking distance of Hale Barns, which has no usable public transport, and northside is/will be on the metrolink at Davenport Green. It's a stones throw from the new/expanded business park (Airport City)
Like it or not Manchester Airport will be doubling its passengers by 2030
quantinghome
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All this, plus:
- higher spec due to the higher intensity of service planned for HS2.
- tunnelling and other additional works added for environmental, rather than engineering reasons.
- productivity gap in UK construction, about 20% compared to other european countries.
- HS2's contractual model of pushing risks on to the contractors who then gold plate their designs.
matacaster
On Moderation
People on this thread keep talking about extra capacity freed up by HS2 on WCML in particular. They also say its needed for extra commuter services and freight. There is plenty of talk about how many extra services etc MK and Watford will get, but as far as I know no concrete timetables which one would have thought would advance the case for HS2 - why has this not happened? People might then see a benefit, not just a lot of different options which just muddy the waters?
Furthermore, whilst freight is somewhat more dynamic in that new flows can occur at relatively short notice, I have not noticed any plan to ring-fence additional freight paths. Indeed its not clear to me how many there will be on WCML after HS2, so they might get snaffled up by new commuter services. Another issue with freight is WCML is only W12, if one is building a new railway, then the additional cost of making HS2 UIC or channel tunnel gauge would be relatively small and potentially allow new piggy-back lorries to use it overnight for northern and Scottish freight services. I feel removing long distance lorries, which many people experience in large numbers on motorways, would be seen as a big benefit to most people, but due to the loading gauge wont happen as the containers and lorries are getting bigger and many might not fit in the future on HS2.
Furthermore, whilst freight is somewhat more dynamic in that new flows can occur at relatively short notice, I have not noticed any plan to ring-fence additional freight paths. Indeed its not clear to me how many there will be on WCML after HS2, so they might get snaffled up by new commuter services. Another issue with freight is WCML is only W12, if one is building a new railway, then the additional cost of making HS2 UIC or channel tunnel gauge would be relatively small and potentially allow new piggy-back lorries to use it overnight for northern and Scottish freight services. I feel removing long distance lorries, which many people experience in large numbers on motorways, would be seen as a big benefit to most people, but due to the loading gauge wont happen as the containers and lorries are getting bigger and many might not fit in the future on HS2.
Grumpy Git
On Moderation
Surely it is being built to Channel Tunnel / Continental loading gauge?
matacaster
On Moderation
I think its being built to UIC gauge, which I think only allows passenger double-deck, but isn't Channel tunnel gauge much larger, thus allowing piggy back wagons? Anyway, its not going to help freight much if none of the larger freight can actually get from conventional siding onto HS2 and there are no larger gauge connections for freight to use?
quantinghome
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Why would you want any freight on HS2? Running high speed passenger and slow freight trains on the same line would destroy capacity.
jfowkes
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I think this has been discussed before and the reasons are a) maintenance will be done a lot at night b) heavy freight trains are bad for the infrastructure c) the risk of a broken-down freight blocking a line in the morning peak is too high.
matacaster
On Moderation
You wouldn't. Freight could run some nights, same as HS1 was supposed to do (not every night to allow for maintenance).
matacaster
On Moderation
Why are freight trains likely to break down more than passenger ones? Surely the same congestion in the event of a breakdown occurs during the day with passenger trains on HS2? With HS2 being a 2-track railway, how will a failed train be recovered as there are no sidings / connections as I understand it between London and Birmingham - I may be wrong here!
PartyOperator
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There will be an infrastructure maintenance depot at Calvert I believe. Plus loops at OOC and Interchange.
Metrolink will be expanded to the new HS2 station
matacaster
On Moderation
If there was a derailment which messed up 4 miles of track (as per current problem) how would that be resolved and how long would it take?
How can concrete timetables be created for something which isn’t concrete?
As to how new timetables might look, lots of work on modelling has occurred. Here’s a report I posted earlier in the thread which covers both passengers and freight.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...s2-released-capacity-study-summary-report.pdf
Probably around the same time it would take if a LNER train derailed on a 2-track section some way from a junction. Apart from the possible consequences of a higher speed derailment, disruption would be less with an HS2 derailment because it is an express relief line and although it would be heavily loaded, the existing WCML (and ECML with phase 2B) would still be able to provide an emergency service.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't most freight on the WCML get there via the North London line? And if so wouldn't that make any attempt to create more freight paths on the WCML pointless because the North London line is already at capacity, with even the existing freight paths badly eating into much needed passenger capacity? (I realise you're arguing for freight on HS2, not WCML, but I know other people have argued for more freight on the WCML, so thought it was worth asking).
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
Thanks, that's an interesting link.
This table on page 13 caught my eye and I think ought to be better publicised. It's an indicative scenario of the kinds of additional destinations that might be regularly served from the WCML and ECML using the released capacity if HS2 is built in full. Although it is only one scenario, so not at all definite, I think it gives a pretty compelling idea of how towns that are nowhere near the path of HS2 could benefit massively from building the line:
matacaster
On Moderation
Yes, people keep claiming that HS2 will free up space for freight on WCML as a benefit. I'm actually trying to see how this works in practice on either HS2 or WCML, as it looks as if it doesn't given your point!
An indicative timetable would help in the short term for PR purposes - so people can see they'll be ablt to get the 07:41 rather than the 07:03 and still get in for 09:00 or whatever
In 15 years time you might get grumbles when the actual timetable is slightly different, but it would be better for the average person on the coventry omnibus rather than "tph"
'Continental gauge freight' is nonsense in the UK. There might be a bit over HS1 to Barking but practically it can't get anywhere else useful. HS2 will create more freight capacity on WCML undoubtedly, but as others have pointed out, difficulty getting around London is a problem if that traffic originates anywhere south of the Willesden area. Much more flexibility will be gained however for existing flows, with improved journey times and paths possible at more convenient times for customers. Better stock utilisation should result. Improved flexibility might also allow some capacity that does already exist in the south to be exploited where the mainline constraints prevent that today. This all creates pressure for better London freight bypass routes, which is a highly desirable outcome regardless of HS2. HS2 is not only about WCML south. Freight capacity will also be created north of Birmingham, assisting Midlands - Scotland flows and links from that axis to cities and ports that already bypass London.
Miami, I take your point about it being good PR but how much work would need to go into this bearing in mind that timetables for this summer, on the existing infrastructure, aren’t fully available yet and are still being tweaked. You’re talking about trying to create a completely new timetable based on infrastructure that will not be in existence for 15 years. This not just the HS2 infrastructure but also potentially new infrastructure on the existing ‘classic’ lines.
I think much wider and improved publication of indicative timetables as DynamicSpirit has outlined and suggested would be better and more appropriate for PR purposes.
Out of interest will it be possible for a train on HS2 to link to HS1 at all if it doesn't have a Euston - St Pancras link? Can WCML traffic access HS1 currently? If so are all systems OHLE or are there gaps in the electric set-up which makes through OHLE electric traffic impossible without switching locomotives?
The freight benefit is also dubious because, even if we assume the paths can be created, intermodal traffic is roughly flat rather than the rapid growth expected by the planners*, while the rest of the freight sector continues to shrink. The creation of paths for freight doesn't really benefit anyone if there is no demand for any freight to actually run in those paths.
*HS2's strategic case references Network Rail's 2013 freight market study - which forecast intermodal traffic nearly trebling between 2011 and 2023, from 6.4bn tonne-km to 18.1bn (I have to question whoever thought that was ever a credible forecast) - by 2018/19 it had actually only reached 6.8bn, whilst all freight combined is now less than 18bn tonne-km.
I'm slightly surprised this demand being well short of forecasts doesn't seem to be used by HS2's more vocal critics.
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HSTEd
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How many freight trains, assuming they entered HS2 from the NLL (assuming for a second that an appropriate route was added to the system) two minutes after the last northbound passenger train, could clear the line as far as Birmingham before they get caught by the first northbound trian the next day?
The last train north might leave london at 0030 or something, and the first train northbound could easily be expected at or before 0600.
The trains would all have to be electric hauled, so that is a discouragement to freight operators.
(Diesel hauled would cause problems in the tunnel also it will have even longer transit times).
A freight route also constrains the planners because High speed passenger sets laugh at gradients like the Lickey, but low power freight trains obviously do not.
The last train north might leave london at 0030 or something, and the first train northbound could easily be expected at or before 0600.
The trains would all have to be electric hauled, so that is a discouragement to freight operators.
(Diesel hauled would cause problems in the tunnel also it will have even longer transit times).
A freight route also constrains the planners because High speed passenger sets laugh at gradients like the Lickey, but low power freight trains obviously do not.
There is no planned track connection whatsoever between HS2 and any other railway in the London area. It will be completely segregated to the buffer stops at that end. I don't think the levels are even compatible with an emergency/engineering connection in the Euston throat. Just to be clear, I don't think this is a bad thing.
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