Brexit: Do you think it will it benefit or challenge the railways?

[Prestige15]

We have officially left the EU now and has got me thinking, Will brexit be beneficial or a challenging task to the rail industry?

 

[Horizon22]

I wouldn't know every technicality but for many purposes nothing can change until afer Dec 2020 anyway as we're still following EU rules / regulations until that time.

Some would suggest the EU rules on competition re: franchising and nationalisation, however many European nations have been able to do this by dividing infrastructure managers and the operator up effectively, so that is evidently not a major barrier.

 

[Grumpy Git]

EU rules haven't stopped mainland European governments from taking stakes in our railways.

 

[Harbon 1]

EU rules haven't stopped mainland European governments from taking stakes in our railways.

Probably because there isn’t one against it?

How Brexit affects the economy and thus various industries will affect freight traffic for sure. Indeed the uncertainty around it has already had effects on the construction industry, with fewer stone trains running as one effect for us.

 

[Grumpy Git]

I wouldn't know every technicality but for many purposes nothing can change until afer Dec 2020 anyway as we're still following EU rules / regulations until that time.

Some would suggest the EU rules on competition re: franchising and nationalisation, however many European nations have been able to do this by dividing infrastructure managers and the operator up effectively, so that is evidently not a major barrier.

Probably because there isn’t one against it?

Quite, yet we have a law preventing it!

 

[AlbertBeale]

Well, Britain will soon not have to put up with the "competition" aspects of EU law, which was part of the reason for the demise of many European sleeper services a few years back - amongst other railway-related problems. (Though the current gang will probably not want to take the opportunity to change things like that.)

 

[mikeg]

There will be no requirement for functional or accounting separation of infrastructure and train. Also we could scrap open access. The first is I believe desirable, the second debatable either way.

 

[thenorthern]

Nationalisation would become easier but given the state of the Labour Party I can't see that happening anytime soon. We won't be under an obligation to allow Open Access Operators. Train building in the United Kingdom will increase although it has been since the referendum.

 

[Horizon22]

Train building in the United Kingdom will increase although it has been since the referendum.

Sure about that? There's extra disbenefit for many companies to trade within the UK plus the recent "boom" will be coming to an end as most franchises / regions are already undertaking (or have recently) stock renewal programs.

 

[squizzler]

Good news for the rail operators simply because its is bad news for the motor trade. The motor trade has been contracting for a few years now although that might be down to 'peak car' and cultural changes, but it is much easier for car business owners to blame the EU uncertainty of course.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Well, Britain will soon not have to put up with the "competition" aspects of EU law, which was part of the reason for the demise of many European sleeper services a few years back - amongst other railway-related problems. (Though the current gang will probably not want to take the opportunity to change things like that.)

I don't know about that.
The aim seems to be a "Canada +++" trade agreement.
I can't find a link now, but I believe the EU-Canada trade agreement allows access to each other's public contracts, and places restrictions on state support.
So under this sort of deal EU firms would be able to bid for UK public contracts (like rail franchises, or rolling stock), and the UK would have to limit the amount of state support for specific trade sectors (and vice versa of course).
The "+++" is supposed to about widening the agreement to cover services and other areas not addressed by the Canadian deal.
So that doesn't look like the protectionist nirvana that people seem to assume we will be able to operate with the EU.
It's what a "level playing field" means, if we want a trade agreement.

 

[hooverboy]

I wouldn't know every technicality but for many purposes nothing can change until afer Dec 2020 anyway as we're still following EU rules / regulations until that time.

Some would suggest the EU rules on competition re: franchising and nationalisation, however many European nations have been able to do this by dividing infrastructure managers and the operator up effectively, so that is evidently not a major barrier.

well EU rules currently prohibit things like management buy outs of the railway.

Maybe we could see some tenders appear from indigenous sources for those parts of the network under OLR such as northern.

Perhaps we get an increase of regional transport executives,and that could mean sourcing of rolling stock more locally.
In the case of northern hitachi/cummins would be likely beneficiaries.

In any case I think there will be a push to increase the amount of manufacturing (not just assembly)done in the UK,rather than bringing in stock from abroad.

 

[hooverboy]

Nationalisation would become easier but given the state of the Labour Party I can't see that happening anytime soon. We won't be under an obligation to allow Open Access Operators. Train building in the United Kingdom will increase although it has been since the referendum.

maybe we will return to some form of sectorisation,as we had in the 1980's/1990's.

 

[StephenHunter]

EU rules haven't stopped mainland European governments from taking stakes in our railways.

Nor did it stop the Hong Kong based MTR operating TfL Rail or SWR.

 

[StephenHunter]

We have officially left the EU now and has got me thinking, Will brexit be beneficial or a challenging task to the rail industry?

Eurostar will face somewhat of a challenge with the end of free movement, but they'll likely adjust. Eurotunnel already built full customs facilities in anticipation for a new deal Brexit and other freight can dealt with at London Gateway.

 

[coppercapped]

People seem to be conflating two issues here. One is the general level of economic activity - which will drive passenger and freight volumes - and the other concerns the financial and legal framework within which companies and organisations operate.

The effect that Brexit has on the first is at the moment unknown — and probably will remain unknown for a decade or more. There may be a shift in trade volumes and way it is shared between the rest-EU and the rest of the world but this will have little effect on the railways. It may shift traffic patterns between the short sea routes and deep sea shipping, but it would be a very brave person who predicts 'how much' and 'when'.

Having left the EU the legal and financial frameworks may change after the end of the transition period - but the very nature of the beast is because of the need to allow people, organisations and companies some certainty and consistency in their planning things will change slowly. A revolution there won't be.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Nationalisation would become easier but given the state of the Labour Party I can't see that happening anytime soon. We won't be under an obligation to allow Open Access Operators. Train building in the United Kingdom will increase although it has been since the referendum.

There's never been an EU ban on public ownership of railways, just that infrastructure and operations must be separately accounted for to provide a level playing field.
What you can't have is a closed monopoly like BR, with no prospect of new entrants or competition.

Train-building, like plane-building, is a global private industry and you can't exclude foreign bids or else our exports will suffer in response.

 

[Gareth]

coppercapped wins the thread.

 

[coppercapped]

Eurostar will face somewhat of a challenge with the end of free movement, but they'll likely adjust. Eurotunnel already built full customs facilities in anticipation for a new deal Brexit and other freight can dealt with at London Gateway.

'Free movement', in the EU sense, is irrelevant for Eurostar. 'Free movement' refers to the ability of anyone to take a job in Milan under the local legal rules in the same way as he or she can take a job in Aberdeen under the local legal rules. Countries cannot add additional requirements on citizens of another EU member state - such as a need for a resident's permit - in order to live or work in a place of his or her choosing. That is all it means.

Changes to these rules will have little or no effect on Eurostar's passenger volumes - people moving for work move once! If there is any change it will be noticed by the car shuttle and ferries - not by Eurostar as much of its traffic these days is made up of US and Far Eastern tourists on package holidays where Eurotunnel is part of the experience.

So little freight goes through Eurotunnel that dealing with it from a customs perspective is not a serious problem.

 

[StephenHunter]

'Free movement', in the EU sense, is irrelevant for Eurostar. 'Free movement' refers to the ability of anyone to take a job in Milan under the local legal rules in the same way as he or she can take a job in Aberdeen under the local legal rules. Countries cannot add additional requirements on citizens of another EU member state - such as a need for a resident's permit - in order to live or work in a place of his or her choosing. That is all it means.

Changes to these rules will have little or no effect on Eurostar's passenger volumes - people moving for work move once! If there is any change it will be noticed by the car shuttle and ferries - not by Eurostar as much of its traffic these days is made up of US and Far Eastern tourists on package holidays where Eurotunnel is part of the experience.

So little freight goes through Eurotunnel that dealing with it from a customs perspective is not a serious problem.

Ending free movement will likely entail a move to the Schengen e-visa system and increase the time needed for passport checks at St Pancras for UK travellers unable to use the 'EU nationals' line. Amsterdam is a popular destination for stag/hen parties and there is arguably extensive cross-border weekly commuter use. Business travel is a big part of any rail operation and has been since before the EEC even existed; the common practice for CIWL in the inter-war and post-war periods, at least in Western Europe, was for the attendant to hold onto passports for frontier checks on the overnight trains.

As for freight, Eurotunnel runs extensively used lorry transport services.

 

[Starmill]

Ending free movement will likely entail a move to the Schengen e-visa system and increase the time needed for passport checks at St Pancras for UK travellers unable to use the 'EU nationals' line. Amsterdam is a popular destination for stag/hen parties and there is arguably extensive cross-border weekly commuter use. Business travel is a big part of any rail operation and has been since before the EEC even existed; the common practice for CIWL in the inter-war and post-war periods, at least in Western Europe, was for the attendant to hold onto passports for frontier checks on the overnight trains.

As for freight, Eurotunnel runs extensively used lorry transport services.

I think what you mean is that ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System), a paid-for service for those who are not required to obtain Schengen Visas, might cause delays. It probably won't do very much, and everyone from a third country will need ETIAS authorisation (or a Schengen Visa). People from Andorra, Albania, North Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia and Vatican City will need to pay for ETIAS authorisation.

This is little related to free movement of people, which is a principle of single market membership.

 

[StephenHunter]

We will need to pay for ETIAS as well in all likelihood and there's going to be at least a few people on any given train who forgot or can't get pre-clearance.

 

[30907]

well EU rules currently prohibit things like management buy outs of the railway.

So why did so many BR managers try just that in 199x - some of whom succeeded IIRC like Chiltern?

 

[StephenHunter]

That was before the EU changes of law, I believe. Also the BR 'manager buyouts' weren't really buy outs - they formed a company and got the franchise. Chiltern is now under Arriva control.

 

[Starmill]

We will need to pay for ETIAS as well in all likelihood and there's going to be at least a few people on any given train who forgot or can't get pre-clearance.

Then the train will leave without them...

 

[brad465]

With customs checks setup and preparation in the news today, will Southeastern services be able to cope with increased passenger volumes, wishing to avoid traffic jams, if there are regular long queues due to checks (essentially where Op Brock came from) from 2021? The most likely routes to be affected in such an eventuality will be Faversham - Dover (following the M2 corridor), Ashford - Dover and the Maidstone East line (the latter two being along the M20 corridor). The Kent Coast line could also see more passenger demand if Manston airfield traffic becomes a problem, while there maybe wider knock-on effects to the Marshlink Line for Southern services.

My gut feeling is they can't cope as there's a rolling stock shortage already, and nowhere to put anything extra either. It also remains to be seen what will happen to the current franchise from April, which will have an impact on this matter.

 

[Meole]

HS2 is a direct result of Brexit.

 

[Starmill]

HS2 is a direct result of Brexit.

There's a lot to unpack there...

 

[Indigo Soup]

There's a lot to unpack there...

Especially given the competing insanity that HS2 is an EU project and Brexit means it should have been cancelled!

 

[Aictos]

Especially given the competing insanity that HS2 is an EU project and Brexit means it should have been cancelled!

You sure about HS2 being a EU project?