The 2019 General Election Result and Aftermath

[Jordan Adam]

I'm not sure that's true.

As someone who's fairly left wing, when Labour announced that they were planning so many nationalisations in one term I thought "eek, I wouldn't try all of those in one go", and I had the impression of Momentum as being hard left economically, rather than pro-Corbyn.

I would have expected Momentum (not that I agree with them) to be cheered by such a pole.

To be fair i think the Media which had a clear bias in this election blew Corbyn's nationalisation out of proportion and over exaggerated. I also doubt all the stuff he said would've been done in one term.

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair i think the Media which had a clear bias in this election blew Corbyn's nationalisation out of proportion and over exaggerated. I also doubt all the stuff he said would've been done in one term.

True. I think Labour should have borne in mind that even Maggie took three terms to complete her privatisation programme (four including Major). I doubt she'd have got anywhere if she'd said she was going to do everything in the first term.

 

[507021]

Another London-centric MP whose lifestyle is far removed from that of the voters Labour needs to win back.

Exactly like Boris Johnson who's just won a general election by a landslide.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I wonder how the Momentum types will explain this one away:

Source

[Image shows result of Opinium poll showing reasons voters did not vote labour amongst Labour defectors 37% due to leadership, 21% due stance of Brexit and 6% due to economic policies. For all that did not vote labour percentages are 43% leadership, 17% Brexit and 12% economic policies]

So yeah Brexit played a role in why people didn't vote for Labour but it was by no means the main reason...

...but that doesn't explain why 41% voted Labour in 2017, same leader same things being said about him. Why the 9% drop?

 

[bramling]

The way northern mining towns have swung this is going to have the same effect as the 2016 referendum - normally marginalised folk feeling heard.

Boris is really going to have to deliver them something for this, or it'll come back and bite him, hard.

And Boris may well do just that. After all, there's little benefit in doing much for London now he's proven he can win an election without having to rely on London seats.

 

[TrafficEng]

Exactly like Boris Johnson who's just won a general election by a landslide.

Love it or loathe it, Boris has a very carefully developed persona that some people are able to connect with. He has some similarities with Corbyn in being something of a rebel. He gives the impression that you could have a chat with him in the pub over a pint even if you disagree with every word he says.

Corbyn is a likeable person in private, but gives the impression he'd take 80% of your pint away from you and give it to someone else, and then lecture you on the evils of the brewing industry and how the pint was brewed through the oppression of one or more minorities.

Remember that Boris beat Livingstone in London (by almost 52% to 48% as it happens).

Labour should have recognised the threat and responded to it. They didn't. the result is clear.

Replacing Corbyn with Starmer now would be like replacing Livingstone with Dobson. An excellent candidate in their own right, but not the right one in the circumstances.

 

[thejuggler]

...but that doesn't explain why 41% voted Labour in 2017, same leader same things being said about him. Why the 9% drop?

As a week is a long time in politics, 2 years is decades!

2017. Article 50 served, voters could see Brexit on the horizon. 2019 Brexit still not sorted, Labour not in any way "getting Brexit done".
.

 

[Bevan Price]

Momentum need to exit stage (far) left. They - including Jon Lansman - should disappear from the Labour party if it should have any chance of returning to power within the next decade.

Alan Johnson said it best last night. https://twitter.com/brenkjm/status/1205278775400914944

Unfortunately, Militant Mark 2 / Momentum seem to be like some religious zealots - convinced that only they know "the true way", and tend to treat anyone slightly critical as an enemy to be suppressed or ejected from the party. They are still living in the past, with 19th century ideas, and now they virtually control Labour, they are unlikely to give up easily. Even a "new Neil Kinnock" would find it hard to get rid of them. Any successor to Mr Corbyn is likely to be "one of them", and almost inevitably, another unelectable loser. I suspect that many of them might prefer permanent opposition to having a new "moderate left" Labour in power.

What is the solution ? I don't know. It would take years for a new centre left party to grow enough to become electable. The current Labour party could gradually fade away, just as the tiny British Communist Party did after WW2. The Lim Dems show little sign of ever getting strong enough to win. So, I fear that - unless Boris makes a major bolox of the post-Brexit situation, few of us here will ever see another UK "leftish" government.

 

[LeylandLen]

For what its worth, I believe Labour lost the 2010 election because basically the voting public didn't like Gordon Brown with his very plain personality (I would say dull and boring ) and preferred the much more likeable and outgoing David Cameron.It appears a lot of voters this time just did not like J Corbyn irrespective of his well meaning aims and his views on Brexit. I know Johnson is not perfect , but does have a much brighter and open personality. Not sure who could replace Corbyn, maybe time for a female leader? I know politics should be more about policies then personality, much the new PM has to be media friendly with an interesting personality.

 

[Journeyman]

As someone who's fairly left wing, when Labour announced that they were planning so many nationalisations in one term I thought "eek, I wouldn't try all of those in one go", and I had the impression of Momentum as being hard left economically, rather than pro-Corbyn.

My heart sank when I heard all the nationalisation plans - the cost would be enormous for precious little gain, and I'm firmly of the opinion that the days of government running huge swathes of the economy are behind us.

I'm in favour of a more ethical form of capitalism, but I really don't think this is the way to do it, and that's one reason why I chose to vote Green rather than Labour yesterday. The SNP won a landslide here anyway.

 

[Journeyman]

For what its worth, I believe Labour lost the 2010 election because basically the voting public didn't like Gordon Brown with his very plain personality (I would say dull and boring ) and preferred the much more likeable and outgoing David Cameron.It appears a lot of voters this time just did not like J Corbyn irrespective of his well meaning aims and his views on Brexit. I know Johnson is not perfect , but does have a much brighter and open personality. Not sure who could replace Corbyn, maybe time for a female leader? I know politics should be more about policies then personality, much the new PM has to be media friendly with an interesting personality.

The more I've reflected on this, the more I've realised personality has a LOT to do with it. I think if Corbyn had faced Cameron, Gove or Boris in 2017, he'd have done as badly as he did yesterday. As it happens, he was up against May, who has all the charm and appeal of a zombie. I found her creepy in the extreme, and it's no surprise she did badly with her grim manifesto. If he couldn't beat someone so catastrophically unappealing, there's no way he'd cope with someone like Boris, who has a larger-than-life personality and a deliberately populist agenda.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

2017. Article 50 served, voters could see Brexit on the horizon. 2019 Brexit still not sorted, Labour not in any way "getting Brexit done".
.

Yes, that would be my reasoning too...and as @LeylandLen says above, a leader of the Tories who has more 'personality'. When Johnson took over from May he made a rapid impression in the polls.
Another point to think about in the election (not sure if it has been mentioned as I haven't read all the pages) how significant was Farage's withdrawal of Brexit Party candidates in all Con held seats?

 

[NoMorePacers]

Another point to think about in the election (not sure if it has been mentioned as I haven't read all the pages) how significant was Farage's withdrawal of Brexit Party candidates in all Con held seats?

I suspect somewhat significant, but more so was the Brexit Party standing candidates in Labour seats. They would've done a lot worse had it just been the Tories carrying the Leave vote.

 

[yorksrob]

My heart sank when I heard all the nationalisation plans - the cost would be enormous for precious little gain, and I'm firmly of the opinion that the days of government running huge swathes of the economy are behind us.

I'm in favour of a more ethical form of capitalism, but I really don't think this is the way to do it, and that's one reason why I chose to vote Green rather than Labour yesterday. The SNP won a landslide here anyway.

It's a worthwhile point. Is state nationalisation the only, or best way to achieve collective scrutiny of the utilities etc. Probably there are other ways of achieving citizen involvement that can be considered.

 

[Journeyman]

It's a worthwhile point. Is state nationalisation the only, or best way to achieve collective scrutiny of the utilities etc.

I'd say the answer to that, in this day and age, is a resounding no. I get my energy from a small 100% renewable company that are reasonably cheap and a pleasure to deal with. I really value that. I know the energy market is confusing as hell at times, but there's no way I'd go back to some giant state monolith. Remember when it took six months to get a phone installed?

 

[yorksrob]

Yes, that would be my reasoning too...and as @LeylandLen says above, a leader of the Tories who has more 'personality'. When Johnson took over from May he made a rapid impression in the polls.
Another point to think about in the election (not sure if it has been mentioned as I haven't read all the pages) how significant was Farage's withdrawal of Brexit Party candidates in all Con held seats?

Oh undoubtedly. The Brexit party not splitting the Tory vote was (I suspect) a big factor.

 

[yorksrob]

I'd say the answer to that, in this day and age, is a resounding no. I get my energy from a small 100% renewable company that are reasonably cheap and a pleasure to deal with. I really value that. I know the energy market is confusing as hell at times, but there's no way I'd go back to some giant state monolith. Remember when it took six months to get a phone installed?

Yet there is undoubtedly some dissatisfaction with the service provided by the 'big six'.

It's finding that balance between market commercialism and state monolith.

Something railway enthusiasts of a certain vintage (like me) have mulled over for decades.

 

[peri]

Oh undoubtedly. The Brexit party not splitting the Tory vote was (I suspect) a big factor.

If the Brexit party hadn't stood I think Labour would have lost Hull East.

1. Labour
   Karl Turner
   • Votes: 12,713
2. Conservative
   Rachel Storer
   • Votes: 11,474
3. The Brexit Party
   Marten Hall
   • Votes: 5,764
4. Liberal Democrat
   Bob Morgan
   • Votes: 1,707
5. Green
   Julia Brown
   • Votes: 784

 

[NoMorePacers]

If the Brexit party hadn't stood I think Labour would have lost Hull East.

1. Labour
   Karl Turner
   • Votes: 12,713
2. Conservative
   Rachel Storer
   • Votes: 11,474
3. The Brexit Party
   Marten Hall
   • Votes: 5,764
4. Liberal Democrat
   Bob Morgan
   • Votes: 1,707
5. Green
   Julia Brown
   • Votes: 784

Definitely. And Hull West & Hessle as well.

 

[Journeyman]

Yet there is undoubtedly some dissatisfaction with the service provided by the 'big six'.

It's finding that balance between market commercialism and state monolith.

Something railway enthusiasts of a certain vintage (like me) have mulled over for decades.

I know what you mean - there aren't any simple answers, but Big Government doesn't seem to me like the way to go. Blair was quite pragmatic about this and attempted to find the right level of regulation, but realised that renationalisation was not the simple solution many on the left suggested.

Right now, I work for a small company providing specialist services to TOCs in a competitive environment. The company only exists because there are multiple TOCs with freedom to choose from a range of authorised suppliers. The guy who founded the company works bloody hard and has developed a really good product that our customers love. Nationalisation would likely result in that market being destroyed.

 

[yorksrob]

If the Brexit party hadn't stood I think Labour would have lost Hull East.

1. Labour
   Karl Turner
   • Votes: 12,713
2. Conservative
   Rachel Storer
   • Votes: 11,474
3. The Brexit Party
   Marten Hall
   • Votes: 5,764
4. Liberal Democrat
   Bob Morgan
   • Votes: 1,707
5. Green
   Julia Brown
   • Votes: 784

That's interesting. I hadn't thought of their standing disadvantaging a labour vote, but it stands to reason it would have happenned somewhere.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

If the Brexit party hadn't stood I think Labour would have lost Hull East.

1. Labour
   Karl Turner
   • Votes: 12,713
2. Conservative
   Rachel Storer
   • Votes: 11,474
3. The Brexit Party
   Marten Hall
   • Votes: 5,764
4. Liberal Democrat
   Bob Morgan
   • Votes: 1,707
5. Green
   Julia Brown
   • Votes: 784

Yes, interesting...depends though whether those votes for the BP would automatically go to the Tories, anecdotally I heard somewhere that usual Labour voters would never vote Tory but might vote BP, all very bizarre.

 

[yorksrob]

I know what you mean - there aren't any simple answers, but Big Government doesn't seem to me like the way to go. Blair was quite pragmatic about this and attempted to find the right level of regulation, but realised that renationalisation was not the simple solution many on the left suggested.

Right now, I work for a small company providing specialist services to TOCs in a competitive environment. The company only exists because there are multiple TOCs with freedom to choose from a range of authorised suppliers. The guy who founded the company works bloody hard and has developed a really good product that our customers love. Nationalisation would likely result in that market being destroyed.

Indeed, this is true. But even us, speaking from a point of view of railway people, forget Nationalisation for the time being - do we believe in the separation of train and track as an example.

A left of field candidate might suggest geographically based companies with a public interest, for example.

 

[TheBigD]

Oh undoubtedly. The Brexit party not splitting the Tory vote was (I suspect) a big factor.

Various stories in the media to say that had the Brexit party stood down in Labour seats as well,the Conservative majority would have been around 100. MPs like Ed Milliband, Dan Jarvis and vile misandrist Yvette Cooper would have lost their seats.

Incidentally, had the reduction of MPs from 650 to 600 taken place the conservative majority is estimated at around 135.

 

[yorksrob]

Various stories in the media to say that had the Brexit party stood down in Labour seats as well,the Conservative majority would have been around 100. MPs like Ed Milliband, Dan Jarvis and vile misandrist Yvette Cooper would have lost their seats.

Incidentally, had the reduction of MPs from 650 to 600 taken place the conservative majority is estimated at around 135.

Oh I'm not arguing about them standing down in labour seats.

I'm conjecturing what would have happenned if they'd stood in Tory seats !

 

[scotrail158713]

Interestingly the LibDems gained 5% of the vote, but lost a seat. The Tories gained 1% and gained a landslide win.

Anti-Brexit parties got more votes (47.6%) than pro-Brexit parties (45.6%) yet there's now no way of stopping Brexit.

If this doesn't highlight a fundamentally broken electoral system, I don't know what does.

Nowt will change though.

Glad to see someone else has picked up on this. For me, it’s something that’s pushing me towards wanting independence - something I thought I’d never want 5 years ago. FPtP is so corrupt, at least Holyrood elections have a decent, proportional system to vote in MSPs.
So I’m away to listen to Highland Cathedral now

 

[Journeyman]

Glad to see someone else has picked up on this. For me, it’s something that’s pushing me towards wanting independence - something I thought I’d never want 5 years ago. FPtP is so corrupt, at least Holyrood elections have a decent, proportional system to vote in MSPs.
So I’m away to listen to Highland Cathedral now

Rather hypocritically, though, the SNP are happy to claim a resounding mandate for independence on rather less than 50% of the vote, winning them 90% of the seats. As someone with some very grave concerns about independence, I'm really pissed off that I've effectively been marginalised, along with a lot of other people. I have no voice sticking up for my concerns and interests.

 

[edwin_m]

Glad to see someone else has picked up on this. For me, it’s something that’s pushing me towards wanting independence - something I thought I’d never want 5 years ago. FPtP is so corrupt, at least Holyrood elections have a decent, proportional system to vote in MSPs.
So I’m away to listen to Highland Cathedral now

As far as I'm concerned our voting system is the cause of so many recent problems. People feel unrepresented, parties feel (rightly or wrongly) that they can win by pandering to their base rather than building a consensus where most people actually feel they are getting some of what they want. So for example, reflecting the opinion polls I've been banging on about on other threads for so long, the number of votes for parties supporting a referendum on Brexit exceeded those for the one party that wanted to push on regardless. Which is now what is going to happen, a massive blow to the economy and putting in place trade agreements etc will be a huge distraction from solving the country's real problems.

We have also elected a government headed by easily the most dishonest person to occupy a senior UK public office in modern times. Paradoxically I am now hoping that he will go back on some more of his promises, this time to his own right wing whose support he no longer needs. Getting a trade deal by the end of 2020 means either staying closely aligned to the EU or crashing out on WTO terms*, and it's interesting that when the trade deal is mentioned the emphasis has been on the speed rather than the content. So perhaps he will now realise that his best route out of this mess (largely self-created) is to tear up his own red lines again and stay close to the single market and customs union?

But I really fear what will happen if he doesn't keep his promises to deliver tangible improvements quickly for the regions outside the south-east.

*While we were otherwise occupied, did anyone notice that Trump has rendered the WTO largely impotent by blocking appointments to its dispute resolution panel?

 

[scotrail158713]

Rather hypocritically, though, the SNP are happy to claim a resounding mandate for independence on rather less than 50% of the vote, winning them 90% of the seats. As someone with some very grave concerns about independence, I'm really pissed off that I've effectively been marginalised, along with a lot of other people. I have no voice sticking up for my concerns and interests.

Yeah. I’m not 100% certain I’d want independence - but I’m more positive about it than I was 5 years ago (although I couldn’t vote in 2014). However I do dislike Westminster blocking indyref2 but a people’s vote on Brexit being seen as an acceptable option.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Rather hypocritically, though, the SNP are happy to claim a resounding mandate for independence on rather less than 50% of the vote, winning them 90% of the seats. As someone with some very grave concerns about independence, I'm really pissed off that I've effectively been marginalised, along with a lot of other people. I have no voice sticking up for my concerns and interests.

Agreed. A quick check of the results shows that Labour, the Conservatives and the LibDems between them got - if my calculation is correct (figures here) - just over 53% of the votes in Scotland. So that's over 53% going to parties that are opposed to a new referendum. There's no way you can argue that's any kind of mandate for another referendum. Not going to stop Nicola Sturgeon claiming exactly that though . I wonder if the Conservatives will be sufficiently clued up to point out those figures.