They need to get on with the rolling electrification programme cut by Grayling.
We need a rolling electrification programme full stop. I'm not sure if the programme cut by Grayling really was a rolling one, it was GWML, MML, electric spine (whose cancellation wasn't even announced) and north-west + TPE. A fairly extensive programme to be sure but there was no authorisation or funding promised for any routes for the wiring teams to move onto once that lot was done.
Unless he's going to announce funding to make the UK a world leader in battery technology what this really means is Beeching Mk2.
Not necessarily, he might be looking at the two pilot hydrogen trains (one 319 and one 321 if I recall correctly) with a view to adopting this technology for lightly used lines.
The amount of CO2 and other crap given out by diesel trains is minuscule compared with other stuff.
At the moment that is true. However, how will that change once sales of petrol and diesel cars have been banned? Anyone asking pepole to give up their electric cars and shift mode to (diesel) trains would be eyed with suspicion; indeed are electric cars more environmentally friendly than diesel trains? In that case, we may indeed be looking at 'Beeching 2' if the likes of the Heart Of Wales aren't equipped with hydrogen or battery units by about 2050.
On the other hand, the way the political climate is changing, I could well imagine the idea of diesel trains could become politically totally unacceptable well before 2040. I wouldn't be surprised if by about 2030-2035, we'll tend to be thinking of diesel trains in much the same way that most people today think of - say - smoking in public, or fox hunting.
Well said. That's one reason why building all those new (Civity) DMUs
(see also this topic) doesn't seem sensible. Northern's 195s were a necessary evil to replace the Pacers, and hopefully the next franchise can find something cleaner and nicer to replace them on Northern Connect (cascading the 195s as 150/1 replacements), but the TfW new fleet is just a short-sighted "let's try to make ourselves look good by replacing the entire fleet for the sake of it". That may well come back to bite the Welsh Government in a few years, but by then it will be too late to do anything about it without scrapping kit that is far from life expired. They won't even have the battery-hybrid technology of the 230s as far as I'm aware.
It's probably not too different from the amount put out by cars and buses per passenger-mile travelled. And diesel used in transport has a particularly serious problem of producing all the particulates right where many people live and go to work/go shopping.
That is an interesting point. Presumably the new Civity units would have to adhere to the lastest EU emmisions regulations, meaning less dangerous particulates in Birmingham New Street than with the current class 158s. However, technology that produces cleaner exhausts has in the past increased fuel consumption, so increasing CO2 emmisions (and damaging the case for electrification due to having new DMUs to find a home for) while reducing the immediate health risks. The answer I feel might be an immediate ban on new diesel units (to cover the TfW units but not the 196s for West Midlands which have commenced construction) and on new bi-modes capable of more than 100mph (slightly different to the other in that orders already placed but not yet under construction would be exempt).
Hydrogen seems to be sexier for some reason, but it still has some way to go to demonstrate real practicability and cost-efficiency.
I'm not sure about 'sexier'. Hydrogen seems to be more difficult than batteries, but does it have advantages over batteries? Would a hydrogen unit be lighter than a battery unit? And how does the range between refuelling/recharging stops compare? What was the range of the class 379 'IPEMU' trial unit? Would the battery tech available in 2030 be suitable for full battery operation of the Heart Of Wales, Far North and West Highland Lines? I doubt it, which means we have two options: hope hydrogen trains work out or settle for battery-diesel hybrids like the proposed Transport for Wales class 230s until the early 2050s and hope something else has been dreamt up by then to avoid having to close those routes.
Myself? Pretty much blanket OHLE electrification[1] of any line with at least, say, 1tph, and alternative power (e.g. batteries or hydrogen) for lines where this cannot be justified.
[1] For smaller lines light-rail-ising may be a possible cheaper consideration, i.e. 750VDC overhead and tram style vehicles.
For passenger services, I feel that any line that carries at least five coaches per direction per hour (either 1tph with 5-car units or more-frequent shorter trains) should be automatically included in the rolling electrification programme. Less than that is more of a case-by-case basis based on how suitible the alternatives would be for the route. I like the idea of using tram-style OHLE for low-speed lines, but the 3rd rail network is 750VDC and tram-style vehicles are not required. So I'd go with EMUs similar to those used on other routes but with the ability to use 750VDC overheads, unless the route is a short one suitable for trams.
20 years would be plenty of time to electrify the majority of the UK network if desired. There's roughly 9,000 single-track km (stk) of non-electrified passenger railway in the UK so over 20 years that's 450stk per year. Quite a lot, but no more than was achieved in the 50s and the 80s and at the peak of the recent Great Western electrification. It would perhaps cost £1bn a year based on recent projects, maybe much less if efficiencies can be achieved through a rolling program of work. Especially if you assume a reasonable length of minor line stk could be met by hydrogen or batteries or light rail style electrification, it seems perfectly doable. Is rail electrification enough of a priority for the next 4-5 governments to commit a billion pounds or so every year for the next 20 years? Probably not based on past form, but it is definitely feasible.
There's a graph somewhere on the internet that shows UK new electrification against Germany. The UK has had two short periods of over 400 stkm and one year (probably 2017) at over 800 stkm of new electrification and many years of nothing in between. By contrast, Germany has averaged around 200 stkm per year since about 1970. If we adopted a rolling programme at 200 stkm per year that could be 6,000 stkm of new electrification by 2050. By your figures that would leave 3,000 stkm unelectrified, at 1,000 of which are probably routes with less than 5 coaches per hour for which battery/hydrogen is probably the only solution. The question is, what are the other 2,000 stkm?
(stkm = single-track km)
From what I've read, the comparatively high cost of the GWML was a bit of a one-off due to circumstances specific to the Western Region, so it mightn't be as expensive elsewhere.
I'd guess that it was at least in part due to being asked to implement so much electrification in such a short timescale. The old adage is that you can't have something done well, cheaply and quickly - you must choose two of those. GWML was done 'well' in that it was designed to be very robust (at the cost of ugliness) and they tried to do it quickly (yes they were late, but the original target of 2016 was aimed for for quite some time) so it cost loads. Hence why I suggested a target of 200 stkm per anum above, asking for it to be done too fast will increase costs.
Absolute load of politicised electoral guff. Not going to happen. What’s going to replace the 60s?. A load of battery powered wagons ? Total and utter tosh. Network Rail can’t even afford to finish the jobs it has at the moment. Let alone electrify everywhere else. Or he intends having 200tonnes of batteries lugging around 120 tonnes of ironing board seated coaches. Maybe he’s going to be hauling the 442s to Weymouth
The target was mentioned in relation to the removal of petrol and diesel cars. That suggests the minister may only have passenger traffic in mind, if I recall correctly the Scotish government's rail decarbonisation by 2035 target was specifically decarbonisation of
passenger services. Maybe that is what Shapps really means, given that (unlike cars) there is no plan to ban diesel lorries (yet). That said, a rolling programme of electrification focused on the busiest routes would probably catch most of the main freight routes anyway; class 92s could perhaps replace most of the 60s then. Or, keep the 60s but stick a 92 on the front allowing the 60 to travel dead-in-train ready for the last mile.