Fair points, all. Personally I would envision everything on the slow lines stopping at Willesden J., so it wouldn't just be the Tring services, it would be the Bletchleys, the MKs, and the Northamptons. That's a lot of capacity heading into Euston for LO passengers to utilise. I take the point about the contraflow not being popular, it's either that though or they a) take the Bakerloo to Baker St and change for Euston Sq., or b) Regent's Park and walk, or c) Take LO to Chalk Farm and change to the Northern Line.
Plus the usual post-HS2 caveats. Some of those Northamptons and/or MKs may end up on the fast lines post HS2, freeing up paths on the slows for more Trings.