What effects do you think a potential hard brexit might have on UK railways?

[DarloRich]

I dont have to answer any of your questions as I really dont care for them because I was not the one who made a clear statement that you cannot buy these machines anywhere else in the world - your words, not mine. I was merely pointing out that you were wrong.

I wasnt wrong. You posted examples that were silly and showed you didnt understand the point. Perhaps you could try again. This time with sensible alternatives.

The suggestions you made are akin to suggesting we use 08's to haul container trains between felixstowe and Birmingham rather than a 66

Ps I see you have been to the erg school of debate!

 

[Peter Kelford]

Just to sum up:

Yes, EU products will be purchasable in the long term even after a hard Brexit. This is dependent on a deal being struck in the future.
No, there is no guaranteed ability to purchase or import anything the day after Brexit if there is no deal. This includes food and perishables.
Yes, everything will cost that little bit extra.
No, that little bit extra won't bankrupt the UK.
Yes, everything costing that little bit extra will bring the UK economy to breaking point.
No, we will not suddenly cease to exist.
Yes, we will face armageddon
No, the UK doesn't want to stay out of the EU through hell or high water.
Yes, the country doesn't like 'Johnny Foreigner' - our nurses, doctors, builders, engineers, policemen, shopkeepers etc.

 

[Gareth]

Think the only thing true there is that we won't cease to exist (but then again, who can say 100pc?)

The rest is wrong on so many levels.

 

[mm333]

Some of the scenarios about traffic in east Kent makes me wonder about the ability of staff to get to Southeastern depots in Ashford, Dover and (if Manston Airfield is used to host trucks) Ramsgate. And the impact that would have on their ability to run trains in the county.

 

[Meerkat]

If Brexit goes bad and leads to job losses there could be a 30’s style job creation boost to infrastructure spending.
Has the railway got spades ready projects that can be offered up for investment, or will they all need to dawdle through GRIP? Would we just end up with another electrification gold rush turning into a shambles?

 

[squizzler]

Has the railway got spades ready projects that can be offered up for investment, or will they all need to dawdle through GRIP?

The delayed Electrification schemes. In the USA during the 1930's much of the northeast corridor was electrified as job stimulus so there is good precedent there.
there is also a little discussed project called HS2.

 

[AndrewE]

The delayed Electrification schemes. In the USA during the 1930's much of the northeast corridor was electrified as job stimulus so there is good precedent there. There is also a little discussed project called HS2.

A lot of the preparatory work for quadrupling the WCML between Crewe and Weaver Junction was also done then.

 

[Tobbes]

Beyond costs going up - including fuel, as a significant fall in sterling vs US dollar would drive fuel prices up - I would think that the major impact on the railways of No Deal is the probability that it will tip the UK into recession, and that far from resulting in a big job stimulus, what will actually happen is that discretionary government spending (read: almost all rail enhancements) would be for the chopping block.

 

[Clip]

I wasnt wrong. You posted examples that were silly and showed you didnt understand the point. Perhaps you could try again. This time with sensible alternatives.

The suggestions you made are akin to suggesting we use 08's to haul container trains between felixstowe and Birmingham rather than a 66

Ps I see you have been to the erg school of debate!

Just seen this - I think youll find i posted examples of where you can buy other machines around the world which contrdicted yoru claim that you couldnt

I am afraid you simply dont get it. There are no other suppliers for the kind of complex engineering machinery the railway relies upon. Little Europe (?) Is where the world buys this equipment.

You then went on to show that the machines currently used are built in Europe even though we really dont have to buy from those manufacturers and thats the point oyu miss

 

[squizzler]

A lot of the preparatory work for quadrupling the WCML between Crewe and Weaver Junction was also done then.

Now we are on this subject I recall reading that just before the 1939-45 war the Government was all ready to loan money to GWR to divert the Dawlish route inland.

 

[Ken H]

Beyond costs going up - including fuel, as a significant fall in sterling vs US dollar would drive fuel prices up - I would think that the major impact on the railways of No Deal is the probability that it will tip the UK into recession, and that far from resulting in a big job stimulus, what will actually happen is that discretionary government spending (read: almost all rail enhancements) would be for the chopping block.

trouble is, Sterling is crashing up. Up 0.02 in the last month

 

[PeterC]

trouble is, Sterling is crashing up. Up 0.02 in the last month

I think that markets have already adjusted on the expectation of a bad Brexit.

Short term - disruption to just in time supply lines. Putting hard borders in at ferry terminals will be like putting parcels back on the railway only with added traffic jams, the infrastructure was ripped out ages ago. (remember controls work in both directions, if you can't clear a ferry because of the customs queue at Calais then the return working is late, the queues are building up in Kent too.)

The long term risk will be the potential failure to resolve the Irish border issues. A possible effect on the Dublin - Belfast service and a risk of a collapse of the Good Friday Agreement with a security impact on both sides of the Irish Sea (just as we are getting used to having litter bins on stations again).

 

[Clip]

trouble is, Sterling is crashing up. Up 0.02 in the last month

Its at its highest since July https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49687380

The pound has hit its highest level against the dollar since July amid hopes a no-deal Brexit can be avoided.

Sterling jumped more than 1% on Friday to over $1.24 against the dollar, its highest level in seven weeks.

The pound was boosted after a report in the Times said the DUP, Northern Ireland's largest political party, was prepared to abide by some European rules after Brexit.

However, the DUP swiftly denied the claim.

Despite this, sterling held on to its gains, and against the euro it was up 0.7% at over €1.12.

 

[DarloRich]

Just seen this - I think youll find i posted examples of where you can buy other machines around the world which contrdicted yoru claim that you couldnt


You then went on to show that the machines currently used are built in Europe even though we really dont have to buy from those manufacturers and thats the point oyu miss

I do this for a living. There isnt anyone else making the kind of machines needed. Honestly. The machines you suggested are simply not comparable and I maintain it was akin to suggesting an 08 haul a container train from felixstowe to Manchester.

That is the point you are missing. You are welcome to continue in disagreement with me. I am comfortable with my position

 

[Clip]

I do this for a living. There isnt anyone else making the kind of machines needed. Honestly. The machines you suggested are simply not comparable and I maintain it was akin to suggesting an 08 haul a container train from felixstowe to Manchester.

That is the point you are missing. You are welcome to continue in disagreement with me. I am comfortable with my position

Im sure you do do it for a living - never doubted that - but if you think for one minute that there isnt a company in the world that couldnt make any machine necessary to run on our rails in our gauge then maybe the job you are in isnt the one for you . Because you know there is you just dont want to admit it.

And if there isnt, and i truly mean this, then prove to me that all railway locos and associated maintenance machines are made solely in the European union and they are not made anywhere else.

Then i will concede to you that you are right.

 

[JKF]

Beyond costs going up - including fuel, as a significant fall in sterling vs US dollar would drive fuel prices up - I would think that the major impact on the railways of No Deal is the probability that it will tip the UK into recession, and that far from resulting in a big job stimulus, what will actually happen is that discretionary government spending (read: almost all rail enhancements) would be for the chopping block.

The redacted part of the recent ‘operation yellowhammer’ report concerned the potential closure of UK refineries due to issues with import or export duties making them uncompetitive. This could cause issues with supply/pricing of fuel.

My local bus company had just raised ticket prices by 12.5% which is significantly higher than inflation. I know bus companies tend to pre-buy and hedge fuel purchases, and the uncertainty at the moment might be a factor in increasing the cost of doing this which is being passed on to the user. Mind you, it’s a FirstBus company so I suspect the real reason is nothing to do with fuel cost and everything to do with stuffing their pockets with as much as they can get away with.

 

[greyman42]

Does anyone have any views on whether brexit will have any effect on where future orders for new trains are placed?

 

[Ken H]

The redacted part of the recent ‘operation yellowhammer’ report concerned the potential closure of UK refineries due to issues with import or export duties making them uncompetitive. This could cause issues with supply/pricing of fuel.

My local bus company had just raised ticket prices by 12.5% which is significantly higher than inflation. I know bus companies tend to pre-buy and hedge fuel purchases, and the uncertainty at the moment might be a factor in increasing the cost of doing this which is being passed on to the user. Mind you, it’s a FirstBus company so I suspect the real reason is nothing to do with fuel cost and everything to do with stuffing their pockets with as much as they can get away with.

I am sure many businesses will be thinking of price rises and blaming brexit. Just like they did when we decimalised the currency. Same moans in Belgium when they got the Euro - I was living there. All prices got rounded up....

 

[Peter Kelford]

Project 'Fear' (aka expert opinion): - the truth?

• There will be a shortage of supplies - railways have less to ship
• The economy will take a serious blow - railways have less to ship, people have no money to take the train
• There is a risk of being sidelined in the world - import/export of rail technology gets reduced
• We will lose political stability - train travel becomes disrupted
• There will be extremely high inflation - either the trains run at a loss or they increase prices, off-putting travellers
• The opinion of experts - reliable and experienced people

Project 'Truth' (aka HM Ministers' verbatim opinion): - a lie?

• The various sectors (e.g agriculture and manufacturing) will flourish without EU Regulation - we can try things that the EU doesn't let us do - run 140mph railways without cab signalling for instance.
• We won't be overfilled with immigrants - British workers get the jobs, who will need to spend time being trained at the UK's expense
• We will be able to trade more freely with other countries - with less leverage
• The opinion of politicians - who are known for pushing the boundaries of constitutionality even.

 

[Bantamzen]

Trying to keep this thread on topic, and non-political, I note some people seem to have the impression that more people will turn to UK based holidays in the event of a no deal scenario. However I'm really not sure this would be the case, many UK holidays can be significantly more expensive to book, not to mention the potential cost of using the train as opposed to the low cost & package holiday airlines. Even if the pound were to fall again under this scenario, it would still be much more economical to travel abroad to many destinations than somewhere like Blackpool. What may change is the number of times people choose to go on holiday, as opposed to where.

 

[Meerkat]

Will customs issues be easier for containers?
Wondering whether problems at Dover would increase the short sea box trade, which is trade the railways could pick up.
If holidays abroad become too expensive/too much hassle then people will go on holiday here more.
Domestic holidays being more expensive might mean shorter holidays and/or more day trips/weekends - increasing the chances of them going by rail.

 

[Peter Kelford]

go on holiday here more.

They might go by rail, but then they are more likely to drive. If one went on holiday, often someone going to the Mediterranean wouldn't want to 'waste' 4 days going through France.

 

[Meerkat]

More likely to drive still leaves more going by train.

 

[DarloRich]

Im sure you do do it for a living - never doubted that - but if you think for one minute that there isnt a company in the world that couldnt make any machine necessary to run on our rails in our gauge then maybe the job you are in isnt the one for you . Because you know there is you just dont want to admit it.

And if there isnt, and i truly mean this, then prove to me that all railway locos and associated maintenance machines are made solely in the European union and they are not made anywhere else.

Then i will concede to you that you are right.

You are right I can buy general railway equipment from lots of places, mainly, Europe, China or the USA. What I cant buy is something of the quality , complexity or engineering standards offered by the main European companies. They have cornered the market in this stuff. That's why almost everyone buys from them!

I could buy a copy cat, reverse engineered, ripped off machine from China: It will be crap.

PS I am talking here specifically about high tech engineering equipment like tampers, high output, cranes, regulators, millers etc. You might be talking about something else.

 

[Meerkat]

Not really sure I am seeing an issue here??
Are you suggesting we won’t be able to import railway stuff from Europe, because I am pretty sure that won’t be the case.

 

[yorkie]

Not really sure I am seeing an issue here??
Are you suggesting we won’t be able to import railway stuff from Europe, because I am pretty sure that won’t be the case.

He said:

...I am sure we will continue to buy this equipment (there is no alternative) but the cost to the uk taxpayers will increase as will the difficulty in physically getting the equipment here....

As for @Clip arguing with the experts, this is normal and I'd be surprised if he wasn't disagreeing with the experts!

 

[Peter Kelford]

I could buy a copy cat, reverse engineered, ripped off machine from China: It will be crap.

Not necessarily an equation like CRRC=Rubbish, but a lot of it is copied, reverse engineered and modified on a base technology from Alston and Siemens. Pointing this out is the mark of a true professional.

 

[Peter Kelford]

@Clip you are well on the road to emulating the PM and the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster...

 

[LOL The Irony]

To answer the intial question, little to nothing will happen. Deliveries of new trains from the eu will probably be delayed but life for the first few months will be business as usual. However, any Brexit will result in more "staycations" so those in charge might want to just order a few more trains and lengthen others.

 

[158756]

To answer the intial question, little to nothing will happen. Deliveries of new trains from the eu will probably be delayed but life for the first few months will be business as usual. However, any Brexit will result in more "staycations" so those in charge might want to just order a few more trains and lengthen others.

Will it really? I'm sure plenty of people going on foreign holidays today could have saved a fortune by going to Blackpool or Margate, but that's not the sort of holiday people want nowadays. If travel to Europe gets substantially more expensive people will probably just take fewer trips, and at worst it surely won't get more difficult than travelling to e.g Turkey. In the last recession there was lots of talk about the "staycation" but the seaside towns were hit just as hard as anywhere else.