EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[JamesT]

Indeed, a hard border. In violation of the Good Friday Agreement. But then again the English never cared much about the island of Ireland.

Which bit of the Good Friday Agreement does a ‘hard border’ violate? From a quick read of https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/IE GB_980410_Northern Ireland Agreement.pdf the only mention of the border is in the context of normalising security arrangements. Putting troops in towers on the border would be breaking the agreement, civilian police/border agency/customs doing inspections doesn’t appear to be.

 

[Struner]

Sounds very selfish, but I’m not bothered what happens in Ireland. The UK Government has stated they won’t put up a hard border so it would be down to Ireland/EU to put that in.

The EU have created the issue over the border, so they can fix it.

If you can’t be bothered, is it time to break up your precious union then?

 

[najaB]

The EU have created the issue over the border, so they can fix it.

They have not. As part of "taking back sovereignty" we chose to put ourselves outside the customs union, therefore we moved ourselves outside of the EU border.

 

[Killingworth]

Just musing over a heretical thought,.

Back then when Mrs May said "no deal is better than a bad deal" was she thinking of the current position and by saying "no deal" really meant not leaving would be better than leaving with a bad deal?

 

[John Griffiths]

Was she thinking anything through or was it just a vapid sound bite like "Brexit means brexit" intended to reassure the hard of thinking?

 

[Bantamzen]

Yes, we stand to lose the benefits of being in the EU so it will be just the same. Morocco, Spain, make no difference. The beneficiaries will be those living in Northern Ireland who can take a car/campervan/caravan holiday on the continent and fill up as there won't be any checks as they ferry back to the Republic and cross the border into the UK? I suppose someone determined living in Great Britain could escape UK duty that way, but the cost of ferries would probably mitigate any real savings, but if they were doing that journey anyway, maybe some kind of grand tour, then they could sneak in a van-full of cheap duty-paid alcohol I suppose.

But that doesn't confirm whether we lose those privileges or not after no-deal. Strangely, the politicians have been very quiet on that one. You would have thought Gove, Johnson etc would be screaming it from the rooftops?

In the event of a no deal, I would imagine that on returning through UK customs any tariffs / import tax applicable would have to be paid, or at the very least billed for. And if lots of people continue to bring booze over then the queues at customs will get considerably longer. This would apply until a new deal is struck with the EU.

Sounds very selfish, but I’m not bothered what happens in Ireland. The UK Government has stated they won’t put up a hard border so it would be down to Ireland/EU to put that in.

The EU have created the issue over the border, so they can fix it.

You are right, it is selfish because Northern Ireland is part of the UK, and thus has to be considered when brokering a deal or otherwise. And remember, the previous terrorist violence over UK rule and a hard border was not confined to Northern Ireland.

 

[nlogax]

The EU have created the issue over the border, so they can fix it.

The UK created the border issue by choosing to leave the EU. This isn't difficult to grasp.

 

[Killingworth]

Was she thinking anything through or was it just a vapid sound bite like "Brexit means brexit" intended to reassure the hard of thinking?

I fear you're right. She'd found herself as PM, the job she'd always wanted, but suddenly realised she hadn't a clue how to govern.

 

[najaB]

And remember, the previous terrorist violence over UK rule and a hard border was not confined to Northern Ireland.

Perhaps that is the source of @ValentaFan1974's selfishness - they want a shiny new city centre like Manchester.

 

[Bantamzen]

Perhaps that is the source of @ValentaFan1974's selfishness - they want a shiny new city centre like Manchester.

There are better ways, in Bradford we just dug a hole & left it until someone came along and filled it with a shiny new shopping centre.

(Just as an aside, I know that is a light hearted response, but that bombing caused a lot of stress for people who were in the area, including a friend of mine who was in the Argos close to where the lorry was parked, so we probably don't want to go too far with the jokiness on that topic.)

 

[nidave]

What about these technical solutions we were told about and no need for any border infrastructure in Ireland. All concerns were "project fear". Funny how its all coming true or are we just not believing hard enough to wish it into existence.

All potential solutions to the post-Brexit Irish border are fraught with difficulty and would leave smaller businesses struggling to cope, experts have said, as leaked government papers outline major concerns just two months before Britain is due to leave the EU.

Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...issues?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

 

[Esker-pades]

Sounds very selfish, but I’m not bothered what happens in Ireland. The UK Government has stated they won’t put up a hard border so it would be down to Ireland/EU to put that in.

The EU have created the issue over the border, so they can fix it.

Is just wrong.

The EU was not a party in the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement.

The system worked for 20 years. Who changed their position in 2016? I'll give you a clue: It wasn't the EU.

Just because nobody wants a hard border doesn't mean that one won't have to be implemented because of the way customs borders work.

The EU can't see any other solution to this situation other than the backstop. The UK wants to drop the backstop, despite asking for it in the first place. Thus, it is now up to the UK to propose a solution. Spoiler Alert: Technology that hasn't yet been invented isn't the answer.

 

[Carlisle]

If you can’t be bothered, is it time to break up your precious union then?

Does almost anybody take seriously the prominent WTO Brexit supporters who regularly claim in the media that outcome will actually unite the country? Hard to imagine many actually do

 

[Controller1701]

There is an easy way to solve the border / backstop issue in Northern Ireland. Give the six counties back to the Republic of Ireland and then problem solved. No need for any border in Ireland and no need for the backstop.

 

[najaB]

There is an easy way to solve the border / backstop issue in Northern Ireland. Give the six counties back to the Republic of Ireland and then problem solved. No need for any border in Ireland and no need for the backstop.

While Irish unification is looking more likely than it did a few years ago, a) it is anything but easy; and b) the "six counties" can't be given back to the Republic since they never formed part of said republic.

 

[nidave]

Which bit of the Good Friday Agreement does a ‘hard border’ violate? From a quick read of https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/IE GB_980410_Northern Ireland Agreement.pdf the only mention of the border is in the context of normalising security arrangements. Putting troops in towers on the border would be breaking the agreement, civilian police/border agency/customs doing inspections doesn’t appear to be.

There is an easy way to solve the border / backstop issue in Northern Ireland. Give the six counties back to the Republic of Ireland and then problem solved. No need for any border in Ireland and no need for the backstop.

Which will only happen when the people of Ireland want it. Not because make life easy for Westminster.

The gfa says if there is an appropriate for it a referendum can be held. It will also depend on the mlas actully spending time sorting out the issues of no and not squabbling over every issue just because the other side takes one view on a matter.

Its going to happen and and probably wont be too long.

 

[krus_aragon]

Does almost anybody take seriously the prominent WTO Brexit supporters who regularly claim in the media that outcome will actually unite the country?

Perhaps the country will be "united" by being stuck together in the same hole if this situation is managed badly.

 

[Carlisle]

Perhaps the country will be "united" by being stuck together in the same hole if this situation is managed badly.

So essentially the Brexit party’s got until the next election to convince a sufficient proportion of the uk population its being frogmarched at gunpoint towards an unavoidable trade war or worse, with no option other than to hunker down

 

[krus_aragon]

So essentially the Brexit party’s got until the next election to convince a sufficient proportion of the population their being frogmarched by the EU at gunpoint towards an unavoidable trade war or worse, as opposed to a solvable domestic political crisis .

Don't forget the sizeable portion of the population who are thinking "we voted on this years back, why hasn't it been done yet?" , and don't care much about the political details.

 

[DarloRich]

Sounds very selfish, but I’m not bothered what happens in Ireland. The UK Government has stated they won’t put up a hard border so it would be down to Ireland/EU to put that in.

The EU have created the issue over the border, so they can fix it.

Aye aye. Whatever. It is simply wrong but then the truth and brexit are not usual bedfellows.

BTW This is exactly the answer that will come from Brexit lovers for anything that goes wrong in the future.

There is an easy way to solve the border / backstop issue in Northern Ireland. Give the six counties back to the Republic of Ireland and then problem solved. No need for any border in Ireland and no need for the backstop.

The 6 counties have never been part of the Republic of Ireland. It is worth noting that the GFA says that it is up to the people of Northern Ireland to vote for any merger. I also suspect that this idea might not go down very well with many people in the said counties and will in no way create any form of "troubles". Can we try to reacquaint ourselves with rationality?

Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...issues?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

who knew?

 

[EM2]

The Tories threaten to withdraw the whip and deselect any MP that votes against the Government to avoid No Deal.
According to Robert Peston, there are twenty-two of them.
That would decimate their majority, and if they do manage to take the UK out on October 31st, with a deal or not, how will they get their programme through the new session of Parliament?
I spy a GE looming...

 

[Bantamzen]

Don't forget the sizeable portion of the population who are thinking "we voted on this years back, why hasn't it been done yet?" , and don't care much about the political details.

Well I'm afraid that is the nature of politics, the devil is in the detail. People voting for or against Brexit were not voting for their favourite politician, or their favourite policy, they were voting on a whole raft of issues. That's why it was flawed, it simply didn't provoke the kind of debate that the country actually needed. It just created an "Us vs Them" situation as both sides rapidly headed for their respective bunkers to throw flak at the other.

The Tories threaten to withdraw the whip and deselect any MP that votes against the Government to avoid No Deal.
According to Robert Peston, there are twenty-two of them.
That would decimate their majority, and if they do manage to take the UK out on October 31st, with a deal or not, how will they get their programme through the new session of Parliament?
I spy a GE looming...

Its the ultimate cutting of nose to spite face scenario. The BoJoBot clearly thinks playing chicken with them (and the EU) will see them falling to their knees and asking him for his forgiveness. However such is the feeling here that I really don't see this happening, and a General Election will almost certainly be inevitable.

Unfortunately that will do nothing for resolving the no deal situation, indeed it will all but seal it. And perhaps the BoJoBot wants this, if he doesn't get his way he'll just throw all the toys out of the pram. It won't severely affect him, sure his career may be back on hold, but the Old School Tie network will more than look after him. The same can not be said for the rest of us however....

 

[dosxuk]

ts the ultimate cutting of nose to spite face scenario. The BoJoBot clearly thinks playing chicken with them (and the EU) will see them falling to their knees and asking him for his forgiveness. However such is the feeling here that I really don't see this happening, and a General Election will almost certainly be inevitable

In which he can claim he's got rid of the MPs who were standing in the way of his great plans, and that he needs the public to back him and replace the traitorous MPs who are standing in the way of the people's brexit.

The people vs parliament message has been ramped up all summer. A general election is that thread's end game. If the Labour party had any backbone at all they'd have made mincemeat of this situation, instead we have government who are willing, happy even, to steamroller their own MPs, ignore parliament, ignore the polls which all disagree with their brexit plans and yet still sit at the top of voting intention polls.

 

[edwin_m]

I can see Brexit shifting the balance of opinion in NI. The traditional Republicans are joined by people who don't have an ideological axe to grind but would prefer to be in a relatively stable Ireland than attached to a dysfunctional Great Britain, plus those that are swayed by avoiding a hard border. If Scotland does the same then, lacking a convenient sea barrier, the border control issues would be horrendous.

 

[Bantamzen]

In which he can claim he's got rid of the MPs who were standing in the way of his great plans, and that he needs the public to back him and replace the traitorous MPs who are standing in the way of the people's brexit.

The people vs parliament message has been ramped up all summer. A general election is that thread's end game. If the Labour party had any backbone at all they'd have made mincemeat of this situation, instead we have government who are willing, happy even, to steamroller their own MPs, ignore parliament, ignore the polls which all disagree with their brexit plans and yet still sit at the top of voting intention polls.

Oh I don't disagree, the hardcore Brexiteers are playing this game with vigour. Unfortunately for them, this whole charade has already fragmented politics enough to see another, even more hung Parliament than before. Labour will lose ground, but I see the Lib Dems gaining from both sides of the House, and even with a no deal pushed through I suspect the Brexit party might get a few MPs at least out of it. So it'll almost certainly need another tempestuous coalition, which will likely break down even quicker than previous ones.

That would be the worst of all scenarios, no deal & a deeply dysfunctional post-election Parliament (not that its exactly functional now of course).

I can see Brexit shifting the balance of opinion in NI. The traditional Republicans are joined by people who don't have an ideological axe to grind but would prefer to be in a relatively stable Ireland than attached to a dysfunctional Great Britain, plus those that are swayed by avoiding a hard border. If Scotland does the same then, lacking a convenient sea barrier, the border control issues would be horrendous.

Talking to some Scottish colleagues recently, there has been a notable shift in their perception on how another referendum might go. There's increasing feeling that Scotland, if allowed, might just get their own leave vote across the line. And if they do I too can see NI edging towards a unification vote in the not too distant future. Brexiteers either side of the Irish Sea are going to get a lot more than they ever bargained for. What's the betting that EU Leavers quickly become naysayers to Scotland & NI leaving the UK?

 

[krus_aragon]

Don't forget the sizeable portion of the population who are thinking "we voted on this years back, why hasn't it been done yet?" , and don't care much about the political details.

Well I'm afraid that is the nature of politics, the devil is in the detail. People voting for or against Brexit were not voting for their favourite politician, or their favourite policy, they were voting on a whole raft of issues. That's why it was flawed, it simply didn't provoke the kind of debate that the country actually needed. It just created an "Us vs Them" situation as both sides rapidly headed for their respective bunkers to throw flak at the other.

Despite the concerns we hold about the referendum, these people will be eligible to vote at the next election. If they weren't engaged with the nuances of the referendum options, they may not be interested in the sort of finer political arguments we enagage in on this thread either.

That video clip of a woman's reaction to a new general election comes to mind...

 

[Struner]

[...]
If Scotland does the same then, lacking a convenient sea barrier, the border control issues would be horrendous.

Not to worry, there'll be technological solutions...

 

[Bantamzen]

Despite the concerns we hold about the referendum, these people will be eligible to vote at the next election. If they weren't engaged with the nuances of the referendum options, they may not be interested in the sort of finer political arguments we enagage in on this thread either.

That video clip of a woman's reaction to a new general election comes to mind...

Unfortunately this may well be true, but may well also be used by future politicians to hold off from holding referendum on important issues, unless of course it to choose which politician gets booted off whatever reality television show they are playing on....

 

[krus_aragon]

Unfortunately this may well be true, but may well also be used by future politicians to hold off from holding referendum on important issues, unless of course it to choose which politician gets booted off whatever reality television show they are playing on....

Do you mean not holding further referenda on this issue, or referenda in general?

 

[Bantamzen]

Do you mean not holding further referenda on this issue, or referenda in general?

I mean referenda in general. The chaos that this one has caused by being too vague for something so complex might convince some future politicians that they simply aren't worth having, particularly as they are not legally binding.