Govia Thameslink Railway. Next franchise?

[Class 466]

At least some, if not all 171s are going to EMR regardless, so the Uckfield/Marshlink will already have replacement stock on the way (if it’s not already in use). However remember GTR will likely get an extension as there aren’t any Franchises being tendered at all currently and I would imagine things will be less set in stone from now on.

 

[Fred26]

Then I would be asking where did you find the funds to do this when you're already in the red?

Exactly. No reason to give the Inners to TfL then.

 

[Skimble19]

At least some, if not all 171s are going to EMR regardless, so the Uckfield/Marshlink will already have replacement stock on the way (if it’s not already in use). However remember GTR will likely get an extension as there aren’t any Franchises being tendered at all currently and I would imagine things will be less set in stone from now on.

I may have missed it, but has there actually been any concrete evidence of this happening yet beyond various rumours? Seems extremely unlikely as there’s nothing suitable to replace them (excluding new build).

Exactly. No reason to give the Inners to TfL then.

Agreed. Beyond political posturing and a seemingly misguided belief that TfL will come in and wave a magic wand, I genuinely don’t think it would improve anything. The things they improved on the ELL/NLL just wouldn’t apply here.

 

[Aictos]

The only things that transfer of GN Inners to London Overground would achieve which could be done by the next franchise in any case is:

running more late night services with the last services running to around 1am or 2am.

extending Oyster to Welwyn GC.

introducing 4tph on both WGC and Hertford routes as promised by the existing operator.

Everything else more or less has been done....

 

[700007]

I was actually thinking about this yesterday in regards to fleet replacements - I am now more convinced that there is possibly a case to replace 171s.

I reckon what may actually happen which is something people aren't predicting as such is that a brand new fleet (rather than 319s/769s) of bi-mode trains on 3rd rail and diesel power could replace the 171s and 313s.

I imagine these would be either 3 or 4 cars in length and joined up in peak times (like on Uckfield duties) to make longer trains as demand dictates.

This surely must be a realistic option for various reasons:
- the 171s are an incredibly stretched fleet at the moment, I imagine that the next franchise (even this one probably would but there's no point with two years left of the franchise) would want to add extra units to help with diagramming relief

- I am no expert in the prices of running the railways but I imagine it is more expensive to maintain, lease and operate 20 different units (which combined have 56 carriages) of 171s and 19 different units (combined makes 57 carriages) of class 313s rather than a homogeneous fleet of 23 3-car and 14 5-car (totals 139 carriages) which can be maintained out of both Lovers Walk and Selhurst depots. Marshlink can finally move to Lovers Walk which makes more operational sense and adds much needed convenience to the company.

This means less fuss joining up several small units to make one longer train on the Uckfield branch, Marshlink gets a much needed capacity increase from 2 to 3 carriages, less fuel is burnt running ECS to and from Eastbourne / Ashford / Uckfield and in service anywhere over the juice. It also makes it cheaper for maintenance purposes over the long run as parts will naturally become harder to source.

 

[Failed Unit]

At least some, if not all 171s are going to EMR regardless, so the Uckfield/Marshlink will already have replacement stock on the way (if it’s not already in use). However remember GTR will likely get an extension as there aren’t any Franchises being tendered at all currently and I would imagine things will be less set in stone from now on.

If GTR get an extension that will be a real kick in the teeth for the users - rewarded for failure. They have only had pocket money level fines for thier poor handling for the franchise. which includes.

Driver shortages (nearly 4 years worth)
Introduction of the new rolling stock (and the service nose diving as the trains are less reliable then what they replaced)
May 2018 timetable
Not actually deliving thameslink - we don't know if Welwyn Garden City will ever join the Thameslink network but has suffered all the inconvience.
Less seats
Slower Journeys.
Lower frequency of service on many routes

Not really anything positive out of GTR - I must go to the operator of last resort if it isn't refranchised. GTR have done enough damage.

 

[Aictos]

Only thing is though if it was to go to the operator of last resort, nothing would change as it would still be the DfT pulling the strings so thinking it would be better, you're going to find yourself very disappointed.

 

[Bald Rick]

If GTR get an extension that will be a real kick in the teeth for the users - rewarded for failure. They have only had pocket money level fines for thier poor handling for the franchise. which includes.

Driver shortages (nearly 4 years worth)
Introduction of the new rolling stock (and the service nose diving as the trains are less reliable then what they replaced)
May 2018 timetable
Not actually deliving thameslink - we don't know if Welwyn Garden City will ever join the Thameslink network but has suffered all the inconvience.
Less seats
Slower Journeys.
Lower frequency of service on many routes

Not really anything positive out of GTR - I must go to the operator of last resort if it isn't refranchised. GTR have done enough damage.

Driver shortages aside (which wasn’t new to GTR, Southern and FCC had the same issue), all of this is what the Department for Transport wanted to buy. You can’t blame GTR for delivering what the client wanted.

 

[Failed Unit]

Driver shortages aside (which wasn’t new to GTR, Southern and FCC had the same issue), all of this is what the Department for Transport wanted to buy. You can’t blame GTR for delivering what the client wanted.

They still can’t recover from disruption- no plan B. Surely DFT didn’t want that? Look at their reaction to the power failure recently.

 

[Failed Unit]

Only thing is though if it was to go to the operator of last resort, nothing would change as it would still be the DfT pulling the strings so thinking it would be better, you're going to find yourself very disappointed.

At least GTR are not making millions out of us taxpayers. If the service stays the same it isn’t good. But GTR are not losing money out of their inept management are they?

 

[Flinn Reed]

I think the TSGN franchise should stay in a similar structure to now, as this allows ThamesLink services to interwork with other Southern or Great Northern services, especially with some thameslink routes being running at peak times only. Some GN moorgate services go to destinations quite far out so might not be suitable for oyster ticketing under London Overground, plus there is the possibility of Crossrail2 eventually taking over these routes. However, I can see some merit in splitting the franchise. Also if there were to be a split, could the Milton Keynes services even transfer to London Northwestern? Regardless of what happens, this is what I think could happen regarding rolling stock:
- Fast services out of Kings Cross to use 379s from Greater Anglia (already to suitable spec from use on Gatwick Express). Remaining 365s withdrawn, and 387s cascaded elsewhere. Could be taken over by LNER, EMR or GA.
- Thameslink services to continue with existing 700s, but refreshed/relivered to match the Thameslink branding (as used for website/posters etc)
- Southern services, including Gatwick Express, to operate using a mix of 171s, 377s, 387s and 707s. 171s used for existing routes, 707s for inner London metro services, 387s for fast main line services (including GX) and 377s for all remaining services including Coastway. Updated livery/branding applied across all, 171s/377s refurbished internally as well.

If the franchise were to remain together, this would also simplify the combined fleet to just Electrostars/Turbostars and Desiro Citys.

 

[sprunt]

Driver shortages aside (which wasn’t new to GTR, Southern and FCC had the same issue), all of this is what the Department for Transport wanted to buy. You can’t blame GTR for delivering what the client wanted.

Driver shortages alone is enough. Against FCC at least, solving the driver shortages issue was a promise they made when the franchise started, and probably the one that would make the most difference to the quality of service. Five years later, it can be safely said that they have failed on this.

 

[Failed Unit]

Driver shortages alone is enough. Against FCC at least, solving the driver shortages issue was a promise they made when the franchise started, and probably the one that would make the most difference to the quality of service. Five years later, it can be safely said that they have failed on this.

Yep. As anyone attempting to travel between London and stations south of Stevenage will agree. More trains cancelled then running. The sooner GTR go the better. But I will leave it here.