If Johnson becomes PM...What does this mean for Rail?

[Jorge Da Silva]

If Boris becomes PM... how would this change the DfT (in particular the rail industry?) what projects would he deliver or scrap?

 

[Samuel88]

Nothing as BoZo will have to call a general election (or will lose a vote of no confidence and then an automatic general election) within weeks of taking power and will promptly lose to Corbyn!

 

[Polarbear]

My concern is that Johnson isn’t noted for being pro-HS2. He’s been quoted as saying “it’s the wrong project” and called for the program to be paused in the past.

Quite what mad pipe dream he’ll come up with as an alternative is anyone’s guess.

 

[Aictos]

My concern is that Johnson isn’t noted for being pro-HS2. He’s been quoted as saying “it’s the wrong project” and called for the program to be paused in the past.

Quite what mad pipe dream he’ll come up with as an alternative is anyone’s guess.

Well one project that he would restart is closing Heathrow and getting Boris Island up and running

Whoever takes the chair though needs to demote Grayling to where he can't do any damage, no idea who could be the next TransSec under a BJ led team though!

 

[Chester1]

My concern is that Johnson isn’t noted for being pro-HS2. He’s been quoted as saying “it’s the wrong project” and called for the program to be paused in the past.

Quite what mad pipe dream he’ll come up with as an alternative is anyone’s guess.

He is against HS2. The Tories almost never pick the bookies favourite candidate because they have made too many enemies. Id bet on a brexiteer but not Johnson. The final two candidates that party members will choose between will be pandering to an electorate that is predominantly very right wing, NIMBY OAPs. All candidates will say anti HS2 stuff but the ones that want to pause or review instead of cancel are actually in favour of it. A delay of year wouldn't be bad if the phase 2a bill continues to work its way through parliament allowing both phase 1 and 2a to open in 2027.

 

[ashkeba]

Nothing as BoZo will have to call a general election (or will lose a vote of no confidence and then an automatic general election) within weeks of taking power and will promptly lose to Corbyn!

Either way, with one of those two in charge, maybe DaFT will stop cutting space for large luggage including bicycles...

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

He does believe in NPR, Crossrail 2 (he proposed it) but just not HS2. Maybe HSUK? or reopening old lines? I heard somewhere that Theresa May was against HS2 until she got into office.

 

[Halifaxlad]

Does anyone think we might potentially see changes such as the idea of scrapping the Eastern leg in favour of HS3/NPHR via Manchester if Boris gets in?

It will be a bold move to scrap the whole entire project!

 

[Chester1]

Does anyone think we might potentially see changes such as the idea of scrapping the Eastern leg in favour of HS3/NPHR via Manchester if Boris gets in?

It will be a bold move to scrap the whole entire project!

He may try to scrap the whole project. I think people are over estimating his chances because he gets media attention. Plenty of Tory MPs do not like him and will try to take him down.

 

[Kite159]

Nothing as BoZo will have to call a general election (or will lose a vote of no confidence and then an automatic general election) within weeks of taking power and will promptly lose to Corbyn!

Whoever wins the leadership contest doesn't have to call a general election straight away. (And even if they did they will probably win against Steptoe)

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Whoever wins the leadership contest doesn't have to call a general election straight away. (And even if they did they will probably win against Steptoe)

Best summary I heard to call the opposition. I hope conservative win the next general election.

 

[Aictos]

Best summary I heard to call the opposition. I hope conservative win the next general election.

I hope not, not unless Ruth Davidson is going for No10!

 

[Samuel88]

Whoever wins the leadership contest doesn't have to call a general election straight away. (And even if they did they will probably win against Steptoe)

They will when they find out that parliament won't play ball over a No Deal!

 

[jimm]

My concern is that Johnson isn’t noted for being pro-HS2. He’s been quoted as saying “it’s the wrong project” and called for the program to be paused in the past.

Quite what mad pipe dream he’ll come up with as an alternative is anyone’s guess.

Isn't it obvious, Boris buses, cable cars, or a garden bridge? The London garden bridge wheeze cost taxpayers £43m with nothing to show for it. When it comes to wasting public money, he is not far behind Chris Grayling. The man isn't fit to be let loose on his bike, never mind the national transport system or the country.

He does believe in NPR, Crossrail 2 (he proposed it) but just not HS2. Maybe HSUK? or reopening old lines? I heard somewhere that Theresa May was against HS2 until she got into office.

He proposed Crossrail 2? Hardly.

The idea of a south-west to north-east rail line, initially conceived as a Tube line, was the brainchild of London Transport back in the 1970s, if not earlier than that. Over the years it gradually morphed into a concept for another Crossrail-type scheme.

The only thing Boris believes in is the necessity for him to be Prime Minister and saying the things that he thinks he needs to say to get there - such as cancelling HS2, because he knows saying that plays well with rural Tory voters between Bucks and Birmingham.

 

[The Ham]

I'll link back to my earlier post, towards the end it takes about the risk for HS2 with regards to the next PM, however the very brief point is I'd expect no actual change before year end:

It's the same when you rebind those who are opposed to HS2 about the early claim that HS2 would be miles out on passenger growth predictions.


In 2009 it was stated that growth by the opening of Phase 1 would be to be about 50%, which if you interpolate gets to about 25% for the year 2017/18 (the last year that there's data for).


The data shows that they were correct that the growth figures are out, and by a factor of nearly 3, yet they remain very quite on this because it's nearly 3 times higher than predicted at about 70% between London and the regions which benefit from HS2 phase 1.


View media item 3340

As there's more people using rail than predicted this then reduces the risk where there's cost overuns. It also means that it's far less likely to be a white elephant (note the 11 million people using rail to travel between London and the North West, who are likely to benefit from HS2), as there will be more people already using rail.


Yes in certain circles it would be popular to cancel HS2, however I feel that it would be a short lived "victory" as a) overcrowding will become more apparent b) those who expected more investment in local/northern services will be disappointed c) it's likely that phase 1 will be built anyway given the costs spent on it and it's likely to show that it's a good thing meaning that phase 2 will follow on anyway (maybe a bit delayed).


Even if the actual money spent on phase 1 isn't more than 50% now, chances are that to cancel the contracts which have been signed and the extra works required so that there's no big holes/half demolished buildings for people to point at would probably mean that it's already too late to cancel phase 1.


Especially given that nothings going to happen before parliament's summer break (as that's the timeline for a new leader to be in post). Even then it doesn't allow a lot of time to sort out what's required to bring the cancellation into law before Christmas.


That's basically another 6 months of costs and likely more contacts signed, meaning that it would like be well past the 50% point.


That's before you consider that there's likely to be amendments which call for the funding to be ring fenced to be spent on local rail/NHS/education/Northern Ireland/other (delete as appropriate, whatevers needed to get the vote through) which will lengthen the discussion process. Along with the small matter of Brexit taking up a lot of their focus and negotiation skills.


That's all assuming that there's not a general election, which there could always be if the new Conservative Leader doesn't deal with the DUP and alienates one or other wing of their own party.

 

[fowler9]

If Boris becomes PM... how would this change the DfT (in particular the rail industry?) what projects would he deliver or scrap?

If that nutter gets the job he'll probably close all the railways and have carpets laid on the roads.

 

[Gareth]

Borismaster railbuses.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

If that nutter gets the job he'll probably close all the railways and have carpets laid on the roads.

If you believe Boris Johnson is fervently pro-roads, you need to brush up on what he did in London. He is of course totally unfit to hold public office, as his record while Mayor proves beyond rational doubt.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Isn't it obvious, Boris buses, cable cars, or a garden bridge? The London garden bridge wheeze cost taxpayers £43m with nothing to show for it. When it comes to wasting public money, he is not far behind Chris Grayling. The man isn't fit to be let loose on his bike, never mind the national transport system or the country.

Correct, correct and correct again, but is the Tory faithful aware of that?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

If that nutter gets the job he'll probably close all the railways and have carpets laid on the roads.

He is definitely not pro-road in fact he was a great advocate of Crossrail and people using public transport.

 

[MarkyT]

The only thing Boris believes in is the necessity for him to be Prime Minister and saying the things that he thinks he needs to say to get there - such as cancelling HS2, because he knows saying that plays well with rural Tory voters between Bucks and Birmingham.

While that may still be true to an extent, many Phase 1 property owners directly affected have no doubt already settled amicably with HS2 now, and probably don't want their deals unpicked again. More worrying is the heavily US influenced pressure group and think tank complex that is closely aligned with certain elements of the Tory right wing, including most of its Brexit no deal extremists. These lobbyists are typically fervently opposed to any forms of public transport, especially any that have public money or Government planning involved, and are typically opposed to anything carrying passengers on rails even if it is privately funded for profit, which at first seems highly irrational but when their (alleged) funding sources are investigated it becomes all too clear that they are acting for powerful fossil fuel and aerospace interests, hence their typical climate change denial position and opposition to environmental regulations. On past form and comments as London Mayor I don't think BJ is any more aligned with this lobby than any other average Tory, but his stance on Brexit could mean he has changed. He supported the development of the highly successful London Overground network during his tenure and improved central London cycling provision, but also presided over the dubious Dangleway, failed Metropoitan Croxley-Watford Junction extension, and Thames Garden Bridge fiasco. I don't trust him at all of course not to bend with the populist wind, horizontally if necessary, to achieve his own personal ends.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

He supports devolution of the London rail network to TfL.

 

[MarkyT]

He supports devolution of the London rail network to TfL.

That may be true, but it is unlikely the party will allow it to happen on any large scale with an opposition mayor in power. Perhaps odd lines like GN inner suburban may still go TfL, as well as any services subsumed into future Crossrails, but I would guess the large SC, SE and SW inner suburban networks are likely to stay with DfT while there is a non-Tory administration in charge of London.

 

[fowler9]

Blimey folks I was joking about Johnson wanting to close the railways and carpet the roads. I thought it was obvious. Just trying to draw attention to the fact he is nuts. He will do anything he can to better his own position.