EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[cactustwirly]

Most of the horror stories about chaos after Brexit are for if we crash out, but this isn't always made clear so some people are expecting the worst even if we leave with a good deal.

Yeah, given the circumstances, I wouldn't mind a good withdrawal deal, that protects British jobs.
But in reality, that seems a long way off!

 

[edwin_m]

Most of the horror stories about chaos after Brexit are for if we crash out, but this isn't always made clear so some people are expecting the worst even if we leave with a good deal.

But it's highly likely that any deal would be worse economically than remaining. The choice is between remaining in the customs union and/or single market and accepting their rules without any chance to influence them, or leaving one or both and losing the benefits of being in them. As I've posted before, the achievable benefits of international trade deals outside the EU are negligible.

 

[takno]

Most of the horror stories about chaos after Brexit are for if we crash out, but this isn't always made clear so some people are expecting the worst even if we leave with a good deal.

Most of the horror stories present a range of scenarios, but start from the point that the economy is already starting to tank pretty badly from preparations and uncertainty. Even cancelling the whole thing at this stage could easily still see us in self-made hole for 5 years or so. With customs union *and* single market membership we could probably mitigate the economic effects, but is pointless politically. Just a customs union might (and might not) prevent chaos on the border, and help a little with manufacturing, but it wouldn't fundamentally help with the exodus of international headquarters, investment and skilled workers at all.

The least bad thing we can do is just remain, and instead of all this brexit chat start looking at why we've spent 10 years building an economy that so aggressively impoverishes the majority of the population

 

[404250]

The chaos stories I was referring to aren't the ones about lost jobs or recession. I meant the ones about immediate chaos at sea ports, airports, and Eurostar which will result in lorries or tourists taking days to get in or out of the country. Also stories about us going hungry through lack of food.

 

[Howardh]

Mark Francois (MP) (Tory) (ERG) (BE) want's another vote.

No, no, not the public to vote on the final deal or owt, but his group of ERG's who tried to force May out but failed miserably in December. He want's another go. What, best of three?? Disrespect the will of the other Tory MP's in December?

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1115216739464306689

Mark Francois writes to Brady to request informal indicative vote of no confidence in PM on Weds 3pm b4 EUCO “I believe May has been a failure as Leader of our Party, which she now threatens to destroy. Hers is a classic example of hubris – and after hubris, comes nemesis.”

 

[dosxuk]

Mark Francois (MP) (Tory) (ERG) (BE) want's another vote.

No, no, not the public to vote on the final deal or owt, but his group of ERG's who tried to force May out but failed miserably in December. He want's another go. What, best of three?? Disrespect the will of the other Tory MP's in December?

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1115216739464306689

That's the thing, he knows he can't have another actual vote, he's after an indicative vote because they tried to get rid of her, failed, and she's safe from another vote until next year. Would it be cynical of me to suggest he wants to spend time doing this so there's less time to sort out brexit and we leave by default?

 

[Struner]

Mark Francois demands a re-run of the last no confidence vote, claiming the electorate were not fully informed about what they were voting for

 

[Mag_seven]

FAO Mark Francois and the rest of the ERG: re Teresa May no confidence vote -"You lost, get over it"

 

[ainsworth74]

Well they made their move to stab her in the back too early didn't they? I would bet reasonable money that if they held a no confidence vote in her now that it'd be successful. But they can't until December! More fool them.

 

[malc-c]

As I mentioned I have little grasp of politics, so pardon my ignorance if my comments are out of term, but normally any organisation has procedures and policies in place for circumstances where an individual or affiliated party wishes to leave. It seems to me that whilst the basics are covered (have a vote, if its in favour of leaving the EU then submit A50 and leave two years later), but there doesn't seem to be any other "clauses". I remember at the time both those in the remain camp and leave camp had no real factual "this and that will happen" it was all speculative.

For me, regardless of what the terms and conditions of leaving are, the country voted, the vote was to leave, A50 was submitted and so we should have left at the end of March. If any deal could not be agreed in those two years after A50 submission then that was the fault of the government and their nominated representatives.

 

[AM9]

As I mentioned I have little grasp of politics, so pardon my ignorance if my comments are out of term, but normally any organisation has procedures and policies in place for circumstances where an individual or affiliated party wishes to leave. It seems to me that whilst the basics are covered (have a vote, if its in favour of leaving the EU then submit A50 and leave two years later), but there doesn't seem to be any other "clauses". I remember at the time both those in the remain camp and leave camp had no real factual "this and that will happen" it was all speculative.

For me, regardless of what the terms and conditions of leaving are, the country voted, the vote was to leave, A50 was submitted and so we should have left at the end of March. If any deal could not be agreed in those two years after A50 submission then that was the fault of the government and their nominated representatives.

All that is true, but fortunately, a large number of MPs who represent a large part of the population are a bit more responsible than the few who want to put the country into recession for a generation.

 

[Esker-pades]

Re. Mr M Francois, any MP who thinks that saying "up yours" in a live interview should not be given the time nor the space to express their views.

 

[fowler9]

Re. Mr M Francois, any MP who thinks that saying "up yours" in a live interview should not be given the time nor the space to express their views.

Many politicians have not covered themselves in glory in this debacle but this guy should be forced to wear a spinning bow tie, a flower that squirts water and massive shoes. He is a joke.

 

[Howardh]

Well they made their move to stab her in the back too early didn't they? I would bet reasonable money that if they held a no confidence vote in her now that it'd be successful. But they can't until December! More fool them.

Why? as the majority of Tories are remain-inclined, they will want her still in power to keep the smaller number of ERG's well out of the way. Even though they will publicly say they must honour the referendum, I bet privately many will sigh in relief if may finally gives in and revokes A50; she could blame it on the ERG, DUP and opposition for voting her deal down.

 

[ainsworth74]

Why?

To me and from what I've been reading from various different places it feels like there is more of a groundswell against her than there was back in December. I'm certainly not ruling out that she would win a confidence vote I just don't think it's anywhere near as much of a certainty as it was back in December where it was obvious to pretty much anyone that she was going to win.

 

[BlueFox]

Tonight John Redwood said this about a no deal brexit:

business now, in many cases, feels very let down that they are not being able to use all their contingencies, which they have spent good money on.

That's one of the most moronic things I've ever heard a politician say.

Does he not know what 'contingencies' means?
If businesses have had to make contingencies, they don't want a no deal brexit.


I bet Redwood bought a fire extinguisher once, and was then disappointed when no one set fire to his house.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why? as the majority of Tories are remain-inclined, they will want her still in power to keep the smaller number of ERG's well out of the way. Even though they will publicly say they must honour the referendum, I bet privately many will sigh in relief if may finally gives in and revokes A50; she could blame it on the ERG, DUP and opposition for voting her deal down.

Can May revoke A50 unilaterally? Would that not require Parliamentary consent?

 

[Busaholic]

Tonight John Redwood said this about a no deal brexit:


That's one of the most moronic things I've ever heard a politician say.

Does he not know what 'contingencies' means?
If businesses have had to make contingencies, they don't want a no deal brexit.


I bet Redwood bought a fire extinguisher once, and was then disappointed when no one set fire to his house.

I believe John Redwood is one MP, quite possibly the only one, who has never disguised his espousal of a no deal brexit, always adding that 'WTO terms' would make us all richer, happier, probably sexier etc etc. The interviews were presumably conducted from his high security padded cell. It's a shame that most have now forgotten his nickname from the days when he challenged John Major for the Tory leadership (and, in effect, premiership) - the Vulcan, coined by Matthew Parris when the latter was still a Tory MP iirc.

 

[AM9]

I believe John Redwood is one MP, quite possibly the only one, who has never disguised his espousal of a no deal brexit, always adding that 'WTO terms' would make us all richer, happier, probably sexier etc etc. The interviews were presumably conducted from his high security padded cell. It's a shame that most have now forgotten his nickname from the days when he challenged John Major for the Tory leadership (and, in effect, premiership) - the Vulcan, coined by Matthew Parris when the latter was still a Tory MP iirc.

I heard that in the Reading area he was commonly refferred to as 'John Deadwood'.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

As I mentioned I have little grasp of politics, so pardon my ignorance if my comments are out of term, but normally any organisation has procedures and policies in place for circumstances where an individual or affiliated party wishes to leave. It seems to me that whilst the basics are covered (have a vote, if its in favour of leaving the EU then submit A50 and leave two years later), but there doesn't seem to be any other "clauses". I remember at the time both those in the remain camp and leave camp had no real factual "this and that will happen" it was all speculative.

For me, regardless of what the terms and conditions of leaving are, the country voted, the vote was to leave, A50 was submitted and so we should have left at the end of March. If any deal could not be agreed in those two years after A50 submission then that was the fault of the government and their nominated representatives.

I think the answer to your question is: The EU procedures for leaving are simply that a country invokes A50, which gives it two years to make whatever arrangements it wishes before leaving. Those two years can be extended by mutual agreement of the country leaving and the (rest of the) EU. So, in that sense, there's not really any 'should have left at the end of March'. 29 March was the date that the UK Government originally gave as the leaving date, and that was subsequently extended to this coming Friday in accordance with the A50 procedures, and looks quite likely to be extended again. That's all perfectly legal and legitimate.

 

[Groningen]

Where Theresa May takes the time i do not know, but also she like other countries want to take action to regulate Internet. It is nice of her to use the Brexit as a smokecover.

 

[Cowley]

Can May revoke A50 unilaterally? Would that not require Parliamentary consent?

She just wouldn’t at any cost though would she?
She’s hell bent on this being the only thing she’ll be actually remembered for. And seeing it through because she’s supposedly ‘serving the country’...
There’s also an element of “The lady’s not for turning” going on here too but she’s not got the self awareness to see that she’s only fooling herself.

 

[krus_aragon]

I believe John Redwood is one MP, quite possibly the only one, who has never disguised his espousal of a no deal brexit, always adding that 'WTO terms' would make us all richer, happier, probably sexier etc etc. The interviews were presumably conducted from his high security padded cell. It's a shame that most have now forgotten his nickname from the days when he challenged John Major for the Tory leadership (and, in effect, premiership) - the Vulcan, coined by Matthew Parris when the latter was still a Tory MP iirc.

I have no recollection of his leadership challenge (I was a bit young to be that tuned in to politics back then), rather of his role as Welsh Secretary. Here's a retrospective from 1995 as he left that role to challenge Major.

 

[Cowley]

I have no recollection of his leadership challenge (I was a bit young to be that tuned in to politics back then), rather of his role as Welsh Secretary. Here's a retrospective from 1995 as he left that role to challenge Major.

That’s an interesting article, not too surprising though.
He’s another one who’s been given far more media coverage than his ability ever deserved over the years (possibly due in part to the media enjoying having a chuckle at his oddness).

 

[Groningen]

Between a leadershipchallenge there must be a certain time?

 

[Howardh]

Can May revoke A50 unilaterally?

Yes - as I understand, neither that nor leaving deal-less requires a vote. Someone will put me right though!

 

[Howardh]

Between a leadershipchallenge there must be a certain time?

12 months. They lost in December, but unlike Brexit they all get another go after 12 months. One rule for them....

 

[edwin_m]

Yes - as I understand, neither that nor leaving deal-less requires a vote. Someone will put me right though!

It's unclear, but since a court ruled that an Act of Parliament was necessary to trigger A50 I think that would need to be repealed to withdraw the notification.

No-deal is still the default position unless a deal is agreed before the A50 period runs out. The Yvette Cooper bill only mandates the PM to ask for an extension, it can't mandate the EU to agree and they refuse we're still heading for no deal.

 

[takno]

It's unclear, but since a court ruled that an Act of Parliament was necessary to trigger A50 I think that would need to be repealed to withdraw the notification.

No-deal is still the default position unless a deal is agreed before the A50 period runs out. The Yvette Cooper bill only mandates the PM to ask for an extension, it can't mandate the EU to agree and they refuse we're still heading for no deal.

It's not at all clear that it would require an act of parliament to revoke. I suspect it depends on whether the original act permitted or instructed the government to notify.

Either way if the government decided to do it they could probably get it through both houses in a day, since the payroll vote would switch sides in those circumstances, changing the parliamentary arithmetic completely. Labour and probably the DUP would also have full cover to reluctantly vote with the government.

Not that it's at all likely that the government would want to revoke, so a pretty academic question

 

[ainsworth74]

The last time that I heard about this I think the conclusion was that it has to follow the democratic process of the country that issued the notification. Which most people took to mean some sort of motion in Parliament to revoke Article 50. But I am not aware of any prescriptive process for revocation. I'm sure, in part, because no-one ever anticipated it being required when drafting the thing!