Possible Solutions to increase capacity between Bedford and St Pancras?

[edwin_m]

I can't really see any future scenario that needs more than 4 platforms for the EMT service at St Pancras.

Firstly there is the capacity issue south of Bedford, which is where we came in on this thread. As Thameslink fits on a 4TPH grid, the MML service has to run on a similar pattern. There is a pair of MML trains 3min apart on some of those quarter-hours and it's realistic to imagine that happening on all four giving a total of 8TPH. This may not be possible with the current Thameslink timetable but it ought to be possible with minor adjustments - it doesn't matter, as the important point is that anything more than 8TPH is very unlikely. Given that at least 2TPH of the 8 will be Corby EMUs that can turn around fairly quickly, 4 platforms ought to be enough even if all the trains are too long to share a platform. It might need some adjustments to reduce the long layovers as I suggested a few posts back.

Secondly there is the question of how many trains the MML north of Bedford actually needs. Assuming HS2 happens, in the long term it takes all the London-Sheffield and some of the London-Derby/Nottingham passengers but will have no effect on anywhere further south. It will also make MML services beyond Sheffield even more pointless than they will become anyway, once HSTs no longer need to access Neville Hill. So I think north of Leicester the likely future is 4TPH of London services, going to Nottingham (fast and semi), Derby (fast) and Sheffield via Derby or Toton (semi, to keep the Sheffield link for intermediate stations). You could add two Leicester semis in to that, plus the Corbies, and still only get to 8TPH.

 

[Peter Kelford]

I can't really see any future scenario that needs more than 4 platforms for the EMT service at St Pancras.

Firstly there is the capacity issue south of Bedford, which is where we came in on this thread. As Thameslink fits on a 4TPH grid, the MML service has to run on a similar pattern. There is a pair of MML trains 3min apart on some of those quarter-hours and it's realistic to imagine that happening on all four giving a total of 8TPH. This may not be possible with the current Thameslink timetable but it ought to be possible with minor adjustments - it doesn't matter, as the important point is that anything more than 8TPH is very unlikely. Given that at least 2TPH of the 8 will be Corby EMUs that can turn around fairly quickly, 4 platforms ought to be enough even if all the trains are too long to share a platform. It might need some adjustments to reduce the long layovers as I suggested a few posts back.

Secondly there is the question of how many trains the MML north of Bedford actually needs. Assuming HS2 happens, in the long term it takes all the London-Sheffield and some of the London-Derby/Nottingham passengers but will have no effect on anywhere further south. It will also make MML services beyond Sheffield even more pointless than they will become anyway, once HSTs no longer need to access Neville Hill. So I think north of Leicester the likely future is 4TPH of London services, going to Nottingham (fast and semi), Derby (fast) and Sheffield via Derby or Toton (semi, to keep the Sheffield link for intermediate stations). You could add two Leicester semis in to that, plus the Corbies, and still only get to 8TPH.

Are you saying that STP capacity will be all about efficiency of turnarounds?

 

[talltim]

Except the east side connects to HS1, not the MML, so not a lot of use for EMT. Yes, I know it was used as an interim station during the rebuilding, but HS1 wasn't complete then.

Yes but the platforms could have all been moved over a bit. I know the International platforms are longer, but they could have been run at a diagonal to get the ends into the original trainshed..Alternativly, the HS1 link could have been arranged to come over the MML and have the station the other way round, with the MML platforms on the east side over/on Pancras Road.

 

[talltim]

So I think north of Leicester the likely future is 4TPH of London services, going to Nottingham (fast and semi), Derby (fast) and Sheffield via Derby or TotonReply (semi, to keep the Sheffield link for intermediate stations). You could add two Leicester semis in to that, plus the Corbies, and still only get to 8TPH.

Doing so with current timetable would reduce the number of trains Chesterfield-Sheffield by 1/5th. Obviously there could be extra local services in there to make up for that, or any host of ther options

 

[edwin_m]

Doing so with current timetable would reduce the number of trains Chesterfield-Sheffield by 1/5th. Obviously there could be extra local services in there to make up for that, or any host of ther options

You aren't taking into account the London-Sheffield trains via HS2, which will also call at Chesterfield.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Could one InterCity service run via East Midlands Hub Post HS2

 

[talltim]

You aren't taking into account the London-Sheffield trains via HS2, which will also call at Chesterfield.

True. Will be interesting to see if they will count as National Rail services and a standard season ticket will be valid

 

[edwin_m]

True. Will be interesting to see if they will count as National Rail services and a standard season ticket will be valid

I don't see why not. They are supposed to replacing existing services after all.

There may well be Bimingham-Sheffield trains via HS2 as well, which would probably have to be additional to those on the existing route rather than replacing them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't see why not. They are supposed to replacing existing services after all.

Talk does seem to be of Romance-style operation, which would certainly involve compulsory reservation and may well involve a standalone fare structure

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Made a couple of scenarios for each of the possible number of trains per hour. Personally I think 8tph is definitely a good long term aim maybe 10 at a stretch. This scenario could be used as a timetable for any future capacity upgrades.

8 trains per hour to London

• 1 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 1 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly

10 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly

12 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 London St Pancras to Leicester

14 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 2 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 2 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 London St Pancras to Leicester

How many Thameslink trains use the fast lines?

 

[Aictos]

Made a couple of scenarios for each of the possible number of trains per hour. Personally I think 8tph is definitely a good long term aim maybe 10 at a stretch. This scenario could be used as a timetable for any future capacity upgrades.

8 trains per hour to London

• 1 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 1 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly

10 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly

12 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 London St Pancras to Leicester

14 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 2 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 2 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 London St Pancras to Leicester

How many Thameslink trains use the fast lines?

How many of them call at Bedford, Luton and Luton Airport Parkway?

 

[AM9]

Made a couple of scenarios for each of the possible number of trains per hour. Personally I think 8tph is definitely a good long term aim maybe 10 at a stretch. This scenario could be used as a timetable for any future capacity upgrades.

8 trains per hour to London

• 1 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 1 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly

10 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly

12 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 1 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 1 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 London St Pancras to Leicester

14 trains per hour to London:

• 2 London St Pancras to Leeds
• 2 London St Pancras to Sheffield
• 2 London St Pancras to Nottingham
• 2 London St Pancras to Corby
• 2 London St Pancras to Derby
• 2 London St Pancras to Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 London St Pancras to Leicester

How many Thameslink trains use the fast lines?

Off-peak, say 10:00 to 10:59, there are four trains each on the fast up and down lines at St Albans. Between West Hampstead and Criclewood there will be additional traffic running between St Pancras/Kentish Town and the stabling areas at Criclewood.
In the morning peak, (08:00-09:00) there are four on the up fast and six on the down fast.
In the evening peak, (17:30-18:30) there are also four on the up fast and six on the down fast.
Don't forget, although the class 700s have much faster acceleration up to around 80mph than any of the current EM trains, they do need a greater headway to make the 50mph ('ish) crossovers at Harpenden and Carlton Road/West Hampstead South junctions, (and that assumes that all of the EM services keep within their path timings.

 

[Bald Rick]

How many Thameslink trains use the fast lines?

4 each way off peak south of Harpenden

8 each way peak south of Radlett (am) and Harpenden (pm), of which typically half are fast line to / from Bedford.

To get more than 6tph ‘EMT’ on the fast lines in the peak means removing TL trains (all of which are 12 coaches, generally with 1200-1500 people on board arriving / departing London), or building a new line from the Euston Road to the north. Either would require more platforms on the Euston Road.

But we’ve been round this before. There’s no market for more than 6tph anyway, the trains are hardly crowded.

 

[Peter Kelford]

the trains are hardly crowded.

Availability can stimulate demand. More train = less deterrents for prospective passengers = encourages travel = more passengers = more demand.

 

[Bald Rick]

Availability can stimulate demand. More train = less deterrents for prospective passengers = encourages travel = more passengers = more demand.

Yes and the PDFH (passenger demand forecasting handbook) shows how that works. And there are detailed models which show what the implications would be. But that doesn’t mean it is the right thing to do. Particularly on a route where there is currently spare peak capacity on the long distance trains, and oodles of spare capacity off peak.

 

[AM9]

Availability can stimulate demand. More train = less deterrents for prospective passengers = encourages travel = more passengers = more demand.

So if that is the issue, every train occupying a slot on the MML should be 200m+ long, be comprised of all passenger cars and have acceleration characteristics compatible with the majority type rolling stock on the line. Once those trains are full, using their current path allocations, there is considerable scope for encouraging prospective passengers. That would be a manageable upgrade using public funds. If the customers actually do come and fill that extra capacity, then there would be a case for much higher-cost infrastructure investment.

 

[jagardner1984]

Given the time differential between St Pancras and Bedford on an EMT to a Thameslink service seems to be about 15 mins, 40 mins vs 52 mins (based on a quick search), isn't there a solution once St Pancras high level is full, to extend some Thameslink services past Bedford ?

Based on the overtaking pattern described above, wouldn't stopping the occasional EMT service at St Albans in the peak carve out additional paths for slower trains to overtake before / after it ? For a time penalty of a few minutes ?

Whatever the future holds, it seems rapid acceleration / braking will be a key part of the spec of the new stock procured.

 

[Bald Rick]

Given the time differential between St Pancras and Bedford on an EMT to a Thameslink service seems to be about 15 mins, 40 mins vs 52 mins (based on a quick search), isn't there a solution once St Pancras high level is full, to extend some Thameslink services past Bedford ?

Based on the overtaking pattern described above, wouldn't stopping the occasional EMT service at St Albans in the peak carve out additional paths for slower trains to overtake before / after it ? For a time penalty of a few minutes ?

Whatever the future holds, it seems rapid acceleration / braking will be a key part of the spec of the new stock procured.

Your last point is correct, at least in terms of acceleration.

But long distance services will never call at St Albans simply because demand is so high that the services would be overwhelmed for the 19 miles into St Pancras, to the detriment of everyone else on board. The time penalty would be 4-5 minutes.

Also the time St Pancras (start) to Bedford (pass) is 31.5 minutes.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Your last point is correct, at least in terms of acceleration.

But long distance services will never call at St Albans simply because demand is so high that the services would be overwhelmed for the 19 miles into St Pancras, to the detriment of everyone else on board. The time penalty would be 4-5 minutes.

Also the time St Pancras (start) to Bedford (pass) is 31.5 minutes.

Nipping in here - the handful of very fast London - St Albans - Luton - Bedford 700's , for example the 1721 off Pancras is an utter joy. - however even last night's service was far from wedged - with maybe 30% spare capacity after St Albans. Yes I know it was Friday and school holidays.

Shows that a 700 can be fit for purpose for very fast runs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Nipping in here - the handful of very fast London - St Albans - Luton - Bedford 700's , for example the 1721 off Pancras is an utter joy. - however even last night's service was far from wedged - with maybe 30% spare capacity after St Albans. Yes I know it was Friday and school holidays.

Shows that a 700 can be fit for purpose for very fast runs.

For all they get a slating on here, a 700 is not, overall, really any better or worse a package overall than a 350/2 (the worse seats on the 700 offset the 3 side on the 350/2 in my eyes), and has the big advantage that a rammed 4-car can't turn up because there aren't any.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

For all they get a slating on here, a 700 is not, overall, really any better or worse a package overall than a 350/2 (the worse seats on the 700 offset the 3 side on the 350/2 in my eyes), and has the big advantage that a rammed 4-car can't turn up because there aren't any.

The abolition of 4 car 319's and 387's has been a massive benefit. Some 700 seat tweaking would be perfect.

I am old enough to recall gripes about the 319's coming in vice 317's on the Midland suburban , and complaints even then about seat pitch.

 

[Bald Rick]

Nipping in here - the handful of very fast London - St Albans - Luton - Bedford 700's , for example the 1721 off Pancras is an utter joy. - however even last night's service was far from wedged - with maybe 30% spare capacity after St Albans. Yes I know it was Friday and school holidays.

Shows that a 700 can be fit for purpose for very fast runs.

Yes those Thameslink Express services are good. On a normal weekday they are very well loaded, albeit not quite as much as the regular fast services.

Passenger numbers were well down on the London commuter network yesterday, even for a Friday. I had the unusual experience of getting a seat on a morning high peak fast service from St Albans. That happens maybe 10 times a year, almost always on Fridays in school holiday time.

Slight aside, but the lower passenger numbers and good weather meant yesterday was a fantastic day for network performance. 94% for London and the South East, indeed it was 97% after the morning peak.